TSP Live Insider 1/15

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Strategy, Commentary, Ramblings & Wagering

Good morning!

I will have a parlay in the Degenerate Club report.

The Degenerate Club allows me to sit down with all of you and do something I have never done before in any content…breakdown what I am seeing in the markets…big and small…top to bottom…in a detailed manner. I can then add some color or use my experience to discuss the content or different categories in-depth. It’s like doing the TSP Live Newsletter (my weekly newsletter during the football season) on a daily basis…with vastly expanded content. People always ask me “what’s going on in NBA” or “any big public bets today” among a variety of other questions. I tried to think of all the usual requests I get each day and then combine them in one single report.

Some days will have a lot of content/information in the Degenerate Club report, perhaps even the need for multiple DC reports, other days will have very little. However, because of the way the Degenerate Club report is designed, it would be rare not to have ANYTHING to report to you on a given day. So, this new format ensures every day of your subscription you have content to assess, and are fully informed on the betting markets. It allows me to solve the one issue that has bothered me since I started TSP Live, what do you do for content on days when there is no content rising to TSP Live alert level?

As we go along, I can use the DC on the quiet days to show how I use small wagers, or dare I say pass, as we wait for the right setups to occur. It is this illustration and discussion that will take place every day in the green wagering section of the report.

I thank you for your patience as the Degenerate Club content gets tested and evolves this month. I do feel it will become the core of TSP Live. Once again, all the usual alerts of TSP Live (Memo’s, Oddsmaker’s Report, Analytics Alerts, Action Alerts, Hermes In-Play) are not changing nor going anywhere at all. I think as you see this Degenerate Report content more and more on a daily basis, the benefit of the DC report will be apparent in the wagers it provides, the content it provides and how it better educates and informs you as a gambler on a daily basis. My vision with it has not been fully realized, but it is getting there. I thank you for your patience during this evolution and the deployment of this new content.

One final item I wanted to bring up. People also ask for “known” bettor content of all types (Big Bets, specific bettor tracking, etc.) every day. You have to remember, known bettor content isn’t always clean. Almost every single market, every single day has sharp money on BOTH sides of the wager (sides and totals). So, yes, “known” bettor content occurs frequently each day, but reporting every bit of it would only lead to confusion. Often you have one sharp bettor taking a limit wager on Team A +5 over Team B…then you have multiple sharp bettors taking Team B -5. What do you report?? My answer is nothing. Getting a market where there is unique “known” bettor action (big bet, situation “known” bettor who is good with a specific team or conference, etc.) to report, where the action is clean (meaning an overwhelming majority of sharp action is on one side), and with that action being at a currently available price is rather limited. It is why there aren’t a lot of alerts just firing at all times.

I could tell you right now there is a sharp bettor who took a wager above window limits on Miami/Buffalo OVER 43.5. However, the majority of sharp action on the game is on the UNDER 43.5. So, I can’t put my opinion into this and say well, I like the OVER (I have no opinion on this total, this is just for an example) and pretend the UNDER action doesn’t exist. That defeats the purpose. I can’t have my bias play into what I report. So, in this situation I would not report anything. To me it is a tossup with conflicting sharp information. Let’s just move on to the next game. So, when many of you wonder how is it possible to go a whole day or multiple days without “known” bettor content/alerts, you are correct…sharp bettors are active every day and I could have KB content every day. I don’t think it would be that useful though. There is a simple formula I have found for KB content, but these stars don’t align every day…or sometimes even every week…

1) Find a unique situation (i.e. a “known” bettor who is good betting the Steelers or MAAC basketball, a KB who is betting 200% above his/her average, etc.)

2) Once you have the unique situation, how does that situation compare to the rest of the sharp action in that market. If it conflicts, this reporting stops here 99% of the time because it is not a clean read.

3) If the read is clean, is the price the KB attacked still available? If not, there’s no reason to report it because you should not be betting a bad number. Sure, if KB action is REALLY interesting, even if the number isn’t available, I will discuss it in a Memo or Degenerate Club report for the purposes of using in-play. It’s just rare to have something that unique.

So, if a KB wager can’t get through all three levels, then it doesn’t get reported. However, making it through all three levels is why I believe the content performs so well. So, if it ain’t broke…I don’t fix it.

Conversely the TSP Live Radar (non-football) was broke…so then I try to fix it with my DC experiment, which I might say is working out quite well! Let’s hope that continues!

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!

Don’t forget to check the TSP Live analytics tables (CLICK HERE) to see what, if anything, is going on for the day.

Pending Angles

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