A lot of people have been commenting on how hot the public has been in the NBA with sides lately. The phenomenon is nothing earth shattering. A few weeks back I commented how COLD the public actually was betting sides in the NBA.
Why did the action all of a sudden spring back? Did I jinx it? Did I change the way I covered it? No, the rubberband got stretched so much against the public that it was statistically “due” to spring back in their favor. I reported on the incredible cold public run because it was so statistically out of whack from the norm…which then made it a high probability that a progression run for the public was coming.
If the long-term win percentage of something, in this case the public performance on NBA sides, is 48-52%, but at the current time they are hitting 30%…that means they are likely due for a hell of a run at some point. The problem casual bettors have is understanding that things progress and regress around long-term smoothed percentages. People see the public hitting 30% in the NBA and instead of thinking…this rubberband is pretty stretched out, the public is due for a big run to get back to the average 48-52% win percentage…they think…YEAH, I can get 70% winners by fading the public! Sorry, but that ship already sailed.
**If the public has 30 wins and 70 losses on NBA sides let’s say, for 30% winners…but their long-term win percentage is around 50%…they are likely due for a 70% or better run as they get back to around that 50%!**
It’s also why THE WORST thing you can do is follow someone on a lengthy hot streak. I know…it goes against everything you hold dear as a gambler. “This guy is 20-2 his last 22 bets…time to fucking UNLOAD on what he’s betting today!!!!” Um, no. Sure the run might continue, however the guy did not find the magic for betting sports and will win 80% consistently moving forward. Doesn’t mean he will be a long-term loser, or that his 23rd wager will lose, but it likely does mean a good losing run where he only hits 20-30% winners is coming around the next corner!
Just something to keep in mind as you watch public and sharp runs. They will not continue forever. A hot streak means that at the conclusion a likely cold streak will be coming. A cold streak means a hot streak will likely be coming up.
So often I will see TSP Live content go on a cold streak and people will step away from it. In the late stages (although, granted you never know what the late stages are when you are in it) of a cold streak, the last thing you want to do is stop. When you do then you aren’t there for the inevitable hot run that offsets all the cold and provides a profit! If you bet properly you can and will weather any cold streak. That’s the trick though, few bet properly and that is always their undoing.
TSP content will not win every month, but if you play the game of leaving when it is cold and trying to time when to get back in when it heats up…you will only find yourself being ground down as you can rarely time the turns perfectly. The best performers using TSP content are those which have a proper bankroll, a proper unit wager and don’t sweat the bad or overly celebrate the good. They are mechanical and ride the content up and down every month. Some months suck, some months are epic. Don’t try to time the turns…you will never get it right consistently enough.
TSP Live is a great example. Never had a losing year going back to paid content starting in 2019! You know how many people buy TSP Live, it has a bad month and so they are done. Then they watch the recaps the following month and see parlays hitting and a white hot month of content. These folks now get pissed they missed the hot run, then of course they come in and the hot run is now winding down and due for regression…so they get smacked again. You were there for the cold and none of the hot. Because you tried to time things, all you did was lose. While the bettor who just rode out the cold streak and was there to enjoy every bit of the hot streak is sitting with profits…you are sitting with losses. You know what I am talking about too. If you haven’t done it with TSP content you have done it elsewhere and you know how it works…or doesn’t.