TSP Live Degenerate Club – Thur #1


Let’s dive in…

Commentary: Given the action yesterday, no 1 units today. Just the degenerate action below for the rollover and the DCR selections. I would like to sit back and see how things plays out. Yesterday was a big reversal in sharp performance and public success…I would like to see if there is continuation today before diving in head first. Thereby no matter how bad today is, my losses will be less than 1 unit as a whole…very manageable.

Last year during March Madness, if something met a level, it went out for 1 unit regardless of the current run or performance. It was automatic and mechanical. With the Degenerate Club Report this year, nothing is mechanical. The change in methodology will minimize the downswings during cold runs, while maximizing the upswings when it is hot. The further benefit of the DCR! I am not saying yesterday is the start of some cold streak. It was one bad day and we haven’t had many this year. I know, I am starting to sound like one of the haters…one bad day and the world had ended and the content sucks! LOL! However, on a serious note, there’s no reason to rush back in today. We will scratch our itch for action using the degenerate rollover section below and small wagers on the DCR selections below. We could minimize our out of pocket risk to less than 1 unit combined on all the action. Perfect! That’s the plan as we monitor the markets and performance today. No reason to have meaningful bankroll in action.

What about the new rollover? I will discuss that on Telegram today and likely have a $10 wager for it. Keep an eye on the channel. Let’s get’em today!

**If anything exciting occurs after this report, subsequent TSP Live alerts, including the possibility of additional Degenerate Club alerts will be issued to update you.**

Most Interesting Action: There is some seriously heavy money slamming MARIST/QUINNIPIAC UNDER 140 to 136. The problem in betting it is we are at the lower end of that range right now. HOWEVER, I could this sort of content for the purposes on in-play. Yesterday Wake Forest was not a value pregame, but we caught a good price in-play and it covered easy. So, I report for that purpose. It would be stretching to bet this pregame, but if the in-play target of MARIST/QUINNIPIAC UN145.5 comes up, I will likely be on it.

Oddsmaker’s Report/Book’s Group Chat: Two separate groups had buys on KENT ST -12 to -13. If I wasn’t concerned about the performance yesterday and recent public success, given how last March Madness started with public success, I would be all over this one for a wager.

Heavy Public Action: KANSAS (NCAAB), PITT/DUKE OVER (NCAAB), ARSENAL (UEFA Europa League)

Public Dogs: The public is leaning to Cal Bakersfield today, but the volume just isn’t there to consider it a public dog to then setup the public dog fade play of UC Irvine. It is worth nothing though in case you are handicapping that game.

Book Needs: WEST VIRGINIA is projected to be a MEDIUM LEVEL BOOK NEED due to the lack of sharp money offsetting the massive public money on Kansas at this time. There are no project Low Level Book Needs today.

Known Bettor Action: Beyond the DCR selections, and what I discussed above, nothing really standing out. However, on days like this, with action Noon to night, we often see stuff pop later in the day. So, let’s see what pops.

In-Play Strategies: KENT ST -6.5, MARIST/QUINNIPIAC UN145.5

DCR Selections (183-137 NCAAB / 24-19 NBA / 2-2 NHL / 1-0 NFL):
George Mason/St Louis OV140 # (2pm)
Kent St -13 # (4pm)
Marist/Quinnipiac UN136 #+ (7pm)
Virginia -2 #+ (7pm)
TCU -2 #+ (9:30pm)

DCR subset key can be found at https://tsp.live/dcr-subsets/

Soccer: The public is all over Arsenal as stated above, there is a very tiny buy hitting SPORTING LISBON +0.5 (-120) (UEFA Europa League). I would not cover this though if it weren’t for the heavy public action on the other side, just to give you an idea of size.

Tennis: There is a small buy on SOFIA KENIN -110 over Stephens (WTA Indian Wells). There is also a tiny buy on GOJO -135 over Gasquet. Nothing really standing out here. I love tennis and if something is even marginally good, I will throw it in my degen rollover/parlay below just to have a little action on it if it doesn’t warrant a 1 unit…I am not including either today. So, be nice to see them go 2-0 for some momentum, but at this time I won’t have action on either. Just missing that one little thing to warrant even just 0.10 to 0.50 units of action.

Other: When sharp money is buying players in futures, those players tend to be decent bets in the full tournament and round matchups. So, if you need round action and are looking for pizza bets, targeting matchups for Jason Day and Hovland is the way to go. Matchups will vary by sportsbook, so you need to be sure to make an assessment of what the matchup is at your book for either player before proceeding.


Current Rollover Bankroll: +0.50

I am going to go with a 0.20 unit parlay using the above bankroll of Kent St -13, Virginia -2 and tie them with George Mason/St Louis OV140. The resulting parlay will payoff at +595 and thereby return a profit of +1.19 units!

I am going to play very tight today until I see how the action performs. Dip the toe in the water, that’s it.

Degenerate Club Rollovers: +3.13 units

Good luck!

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