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Strategy, Commentary, Ramblings & Wagering
Good morning!
June and July are the quietest months of the year for sports betting. The NBA and NHL wrap up, and for major US sports…we are left with only MLB. Every other month outside June and July contain at least 3-5 of the major US sports being active. Major US sports being NBA, NCAAB, NHL, NCAAF, NFL, MLB. Some months have as many as 5 of the 6 sports active or 6 of 6 when MLB seeps into November! Those heavy sports months make for a plethora (a lot) of betting options and active markets. It is therefore no coincidence that the best performing months of content are within the run from August through May. However, that doesn’t mean that gambling cannot be profitable, and in a strong way in June and July. What changes is how those profits are attained. Ensuring you evolve as a bettor to be there to take advantage is the key. If you want to profit, you can’t just be stuck on the Big 6 when betting…you should broaden your horizons.
When COVID hit in March 2020, I immediately evolved my content from what I was excited for (March Madness) and transitioned to Belarus hockey, Belarus & Nicaraguan soccer, horse racing and KBO baseball! Aside from horse racing, I had NEVER bet on any of those sports before. Many self-proclaimed “geniuses” of sports betting just stopped betting during COVID. Pathetic!! Profits were strong during COVID for TSP followers…while most of the “pro’s” didn’t bet a thing. If you are a true pro then you improvise, adapt and overcome!
Yesterday, Hovland won the Memorial and paid off at +2200! It was a solid win and the second outright in TSP content over the last three weeks (Koepka +2500 in the PGA Championship for the Degenerate Club Report’s coverage). If you have been betting the golf outrights, which have been strong this season overall (5 golf outrights have cashed in 2023), the dog days of summer are treating you quite well! Potentially picking up as much as +47 units of gross returns just over the past three weeks! To hell with the sweat and annoyance of MLB for +/-1 unit here and there.
How about soccer? Soccer has absolutely printed money within the DCR for all of 2023…and has been especially white hot the past 2 months! Yesterday was another 2-0 for +2.6 units from soccer content in the Degenerate Club Report. Even MLS has been strong in the two days I covered it on Twitter. However, if you aren’t open to the idea of betting soccer, you are missing a boatload of profits. Therein lies my point.
Graded MLB content is down 1 unit on the season. It is +1.8 units for sharp reporting and -2.8 units for DCR Selections…net of -1 unit. However, I get to respond to all the whining messages about how MLB isn’t performing and life sucks. First, -1 unit is hardly a bad season. Today MLB could hit a +120 dog and be back in the green. Which is the nature of MLB…it is a long grinding season. Every year of MLB since 2011 has been profitable…but almost every single one was a rollercoaster with multiple occasions when MLB season performance was in the red. Either accept that as the nature of the MLB beast, or don’t bet it. While we all love to win all the time, it just doesn’t happen that way. As such, we (you & I) will be in the negative in some sports from time to time…sometimes even finishing that sport in the red. It’s rare, but it definitely does happen. The longer the season, the greater the chance of being negative in that season at multiple points along the journey.
So, I’ll get the guy who only bets MLB complaining about being down 1 unit this season and not just collecting easy profits, while at the same time getting the messages from the guys who want to kiss me because they are killing it through soccer and/or golf. Both bettors are getting the same content, the versatility of one bettor who assesses performance on a day to day basis and follows the content that is performing is loving life, while the “MLB only” bettor is questioning his existence as a bettor. You really shouldn’t be questioning your betting existence at -1 unit, as that is a sign you have highly unreasonable expectations for how betting content “should” play out, but I will leave that topic for another day.
For those who say, you are just saying all this because it shows all the gems within The Sharp Plays content…you are 100% correct! There is nobody that does it as good as I do it. However, I am also pointing it out because the moral of the story is key for bettors hoping to be successful and profitable LONG-TERM…you ALWAYS have to be open to diversification in your betting. If you are stuck on betting just one sport, say MLB right now, you could miss a ton of profits all around you. You then live and die by the performance of that single sport. It is a topic I have brought up many times lately in preparation for the arrival of the dog days of summer. Recently, I talked about how I couldn’t name more than 1 WNBA player, but I am open to betting it. I discussed how I don’t have a clue about the drivers in NASCAR nor the performance of most golfers, but I am open to betting both sports each week. I can’t name a single Aussie Rules Football player, but I am 4-1 on AFL bets I have made.
So, as a TSP follower, you should bet all of the content? Some do…but that’s usually not good for most people. What most bettors do is simply assess the action on a daily basis. Some might say, “but you tell us not to jump from hot streak to hot streak.” Correct, but monitoring and assessing the content on a daily basis to see what is performing and what is not is completely different from the guy who watches soccer content hit a 14-0 run, and only then for bet #15, decides to jump on. Compare this to someone who opens today’s DCR and says, “OK, what do we have today? Well, MLB has been flat, so I’ll put that on the back burner for a minute and just monitor it for a turn. Tennis has done nothing in the French Open, I’ll stay away until I see something. Really nothing else going on today. Maybe I’ll just take the day off…it was a good weekend of golf and soccer.” I know…taking a pass…that is degenerate sacrilege! LOL! However, as I have said many times…most professional bettors wager 10-20 days in a 30 day month. Not every day is a good day to bet and not every day provides good risk/reward/value setups. So, don’t be afraid to pass. You might shake from betting withdrawal for a day, but there are more games tomorrow!
With the success of golf, I have had a lot of people ask how much they should bet on outrights. You don’t have to fire 1 unit bets on golf outrights. Instead some people spread as little as 1 unit each week across all the listed outrights. There were three outrights covered this past weekend so that would mean as little as 0.33 units on Hovland +2200…for a +6.6 unit payout (0.99 units of risk across three bets). Who cares about being -1 unit in MLB or the fact tennis can’t get out of its own way? Don’t keep your head in the sand [bunker] to the golf, soccer, AFL and other sports profits all around you! Next month it might be MLB which kills it, be versatile and ready to move around based on your daily sports assessments.
What about today’s early sharp buying? Small sharp buys on the Florida Panthers +120, Kansas City/Miami UN8.5 (-115) and Cincinnati -120.
That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!