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Strategy, Commentary, Ramblings & Wagering
Good morning!
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Every season, every month, and even a lot of the weeks, followers of The Sharp Plays will message me with a similar question. The wording varies but the thrust of the question is the same…”If I do _________________, I will win money…correct?” For example, it might be something like…last year NCAA basketball sharp buys hit 58%…so this year that person will want to know how to follow every NCAA basketball sharp buy…hoping to replicate that 58% win percentage and it’s resulting profits. I get it, but that old disclaimer you hear on ads for attorneys comes to mind…”past performance is not indicative of future results.”
Everyone just wants to find a simple, no effort way to make consistent and a healthy profits from sports betting. The no effort way is… “ <fill in the angle/content> won money last year/season, so I am only going to bet those angles/content.” People then have the expectation that their performance will be exactly like it would have been the previous year/season following that content for the upcoming season. Often that is not the case.
For example, this past football season the KB Consensus angles went 32-13-3…but of course people still bitched when one of the 13 losses occurred. LOL! Anyway, KB Consensus had a 71.1% win percentage…pretty damn good and it was many subscriber’s favorite content this past season. So if you follow KB Consensus this coming football season you will hit 71% again, right?!?! Perhaps…and it’s not to say that KB Consensus will be awful this year either…but maybe it “only” hits 55%. Obviously 55% will provide healthy profits, but it would be a letdown to those who are following KB Consensus in the hopes it will have another 71%+ winning season.
Book Positions had a 30-16 record over 2021 and into 2022 and were the most popular content…people could not wait to follow them for the 2022-23 football season. However, in 2022-23 football they went 4-6! Hardly an epic loss and still strong performing content since it was launched in 2021. It brings up the point of my message today…no matter how good or bad some sort of content was the previous season, it does not mean it will be the same level of good or bad the next season.
How can you ever profit from sports if there is no guarantee that something that was good/bad one year/season will be good/bad in the same way the next season? By being versatile. It amazes me how many people read the Degenerate Club Report (part of TSP Live) and instead of trying to absorb all the information and then use that information to come up with wagers on their own…they just want a fast and easy blind follow. Nobody ever made long-term profits in sports betting by blind following anyone or anything. You need to be versatile and you need to have betting intelligence.
People are always asking me if I personally bet <fill in content/angle> for 1 unit every day. There is different content that I find myself betting ALMOST each and every time it occurs, like the DCR Selections, BUT while I may end up betting it ALMOST each and every day, I don’t go into each day with the strategy of…whatever the DCR Selections are I will follow them for 1 unit. Sure, my action may end up that way, but I go in with an open mind and assessing every bit of intel/content that arises before I dive in. The importance of this approach is two fold…
First, when you go in with blinders on every day, and just look to blind follow certain content, you can miss a lot of important information and opportunities in front of you. Yesterday for example, I noted the best outcome for the book on the US Open would be for Clark to win it. At the time yesterday’s DCR went out, the price for Clark to win was +300 to +350. It was not a rated bet, just Oddsmaker’s Report intel that won’t be logged or graded anywhere. However, just because something isn’t logged or graded should not mean it is not quality intel. Most content is not standardized and thereby not graded/logged…but that clearly does not mean it is bad or useless. The Clark intel is a good example of the DCR providing quality content, but if you go into the day’s report only looking to bet the same content each and every day, you will miss a lot of quality information.
Some people blind follow soccer, and that has been a very good strategy this year…however…while last year soccer was profitable, it was a much more of a grind. By being versatile and noticing how strong soccer was early in 2023 (although it did lose yesterday), you were able to catch a very hot run the past 5+ months. If you came into 2023 with the idea that 2022 soccer was such a grind for a small level of profit…and thereby something to avoid for 2023…you would have missed out on an incredible “printing money” type run that soccer has had this year.
Second, proper professional sports betting is all about evolution. It’s an ongoing game of cat and mouse with the book. What worked in 2005 to profit in sports betting did not work in 2015…and what worked in 2015 did not work last year. So, it is important to be agile in your betting and wager assessment so you can continually stay ahead of the book. Blind following is not being agile. Being agile means going into every day’s content with an open mind and assessing all the content published/delivered along with the current and recent performance of that content. If you are agile then you will likely be much more profitable and successful than if you just go in and look to blind follow something every day….with little thought.
People assume assessing all the content will take 5 hours a day. It does not. Most Degenerate Club Reports can be read in full in under 10 minutes. Once you have digested all the information for that day then take another 5 minutes to deduce your wagers. If you don’t have 15 minutes of time each day to assess information and decide on wagers, you should not be betting that day. Take a pass and come back tomorrow when you do have time.
Today’s early sharp buys… DAN EVANS +100 (ATP London @ 10am ET) and Toronto/Miami UNDER 8.5 (-110). Pretty short card today.
That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!