TSP Live Insider 6/27 – That’s too Chalky to be a Value…isn’t it?!?!

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Strategy, Commentary, Ramblings & Wagering

Good morning!

There wasn’t much at all in the way of sharp buying early yesterday. So, I figured I would hold TSP Live Insider until today. Not much more this morning, but there was one today that hits right to my topic. So, today ends up being a great day to cover this topic. Today’s topic, speaking of sharp buys, is whether something is too chalky to be a value.

I hear it all the time…”sharps don’t bet lines that high”…”or sharps would never bet a -300.” Both of these statements are completely false. There is no such thing as a line being too high that sharp money would not bet if it were a value.

Today’s early sharp buying actually provides an example of this. In CONCACAF Gold Cup, Canada opened as a -500 chalk and was pushed right up to -800 by sharp money. Surely, if I reported this as a sharp buy, and not as part of this article, people would have sent me those “no way sharp money bets -500.” Can I ask you why not?!?!

Usually the answer becomes something along the line of “sharp money will never win enough to cover losing -500 juice.” Therein lies the tell…this person is just spouting bullshit and has no idea what they are talking about. You see, if something should be -800 as the fair value, and the book is offering you -500 on that wager…that’s a value! If you know something has an 88.89% chance of happening (a -800 price), but the book is pricing it as having only an 83.33% chance of happening (a -500 price), assuming your price/valuation is correct…you WILL NEVER LOSE MONEY over the long haul betting those situations. It is mathematically impossible to lose money given those parameters.

With that in mind…a no lose mathematical guarantee…why won’t sharps bet the -500?!?!? You might then say, but how do you know the sharp money is pricing it correctly?!?! Well, if they are rated as sharp by the book then they have a track record of success betting values…and thereby we could assume there is a decent chance they are pricing this match correctly.

The most famous example of this is the Mayweather/McGregor boxing match. The public was going nuts for McGregor…taking him at every turn and it kept the line in the area of -500 to -550. However, anyone who realized this wasn’t going to be a close match, likely priced Mayweather in the area of -1500 to -2500…thereby the -500 is a TREMENDOUS value. If you are constantly betting -500 prices that should be -2500….yeah you will take a big loss when you drop a -500 bet…but that’s likely just giving back a portion of PROFITS betting on these situations.

So, don’t think for a second there is a line at any level that sharp money will not bet if that line is considered a value by the sharp bettor.

Today’s early sharp buying…LA DODGERS/COLORADO UN12 (-115), NY YANKEES/OAKLAND OV8 (-115), CANADA at -500 to -700, PHOENIX +4.5 (WNBA).

If you don’t want to bet Canada at this high a price, I don’t blame you…it can be tough for a casual bettor to stomach. What about waiting for in-play. If by some miracle Canada is down a goal early or if this is a DRAW at the half, you could catch a workable and value price. So, it’s not something to write-off entirely…keep an eye on the match!

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!