TSP Live Insider 7/17

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Strategy, Commentary, Ramblings & Wagering

Good morning!

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Yesterday in TSP Live, we cashed a nice +1.75 units on Alcaraz for our rollover (it was also a medium Book Need) thanks to using the DCR content! There were no quality MLB angles, although there was a Late Release on Mexico/Panama UNDER 2.25 which cashed the ticket rather easily. Tennis and soccer winnings brought TSP Live subscribers a nice result on Sunday. However, that’s not exactly the usually slate of MLB action people would expect on a Sunday. Which brings me to my point. You should not be closed minded to sports you don’t like or aren’t familiar with betting. Learning the betting or scoring of a new sport can be rather simple, especially tennis or soccer, and can be worth the time.

Now trust me, I totally understand being a baseball fan and wanting to bet baseball every day…or an NBA fan and wanting to bet NBA whenever there are games. However, that’s not how professional bettors do it. Pros do not bet something because it is on TV or because they like the sport. Pros bet because they find value or an angle to play. Doesn’t matter if that angle is in MLB, Aussie Rules Football, horse racing, NFL, tennis…whatever! If there’s an angle to play…the Pros want to bet it regardless of sport or personal preference on what they want to bet.

Where am I going with this? Some people will complain when there is no MLB for a single day or a few days or when they don’t have NBA/NHL/NCAAB/whatever to bet. I get it…but flip a coin and pick something because if I report information that doesn’t pass the key levels I use to filter content…the information is good as a coin toss. Some people don’t care. These folks will gladly bet a coin toss to get their fix of NBA, NFL, NHL or whatever sport they want to bet if there is nothing being covered in the content that day. However, I take pride in my content and records. While my content surely will not win every day, I do not want the performance and quality of the content diluted just because a few people needed their fix of MLB angles on a Sunday. At which point I cut corners and reported subpar action.

Just because there are MLB/NBA/whatever games in a given day or even in a given week doesn’t mean that day or those weeks will provide good content in those sports to bet.

Yesterday was a great example of an awesome day of content BUT one in which there were no graded MLB angles despite the full Sunday card. There will be plenty of days where there are graded MLB angles, just be patient. It happens all the time though…someone will send a message (usually not angry, just disappointed) because whatever sport they were hoping to see didn’t get any content or angles reported that day. People are used to seeing handicappers out there on various websites selling MLB plays and packages every single day of the season. If there are MLB games in a given day, that handicapper is going to be posting plays. Problem is, that’s not how gambling works. Once again, not every day is a good day to gamble. So, if someone is posting plays on a sport every single day that there are events in that sport…run away…they are closer to salesman than true betting pro. Don’t think someone is good because they can find MLB “best bets” every day of the season. Instead you should realize that person is full of shit.

Even though you and I are degenerates, TSP Live and what I do is tailored to pros and up and coming pros. A pro doesn’t care if Alcaraz +180 is a solid angle to play or if there is something in Aussie Rules Football on a team and in a sport they have never heard of before. Reminds me of COVID in 2020 when we were betting Belarus hockey and soccer. I can’t name a player or a team, but we made some good money on those sports back in 2020. All a real professional bettor cares about is (1) their outs take action on that sport/event and (2) there is a material angle/value to play. They don’t open the DCR each day and say…”COME ON…NO MLB?!?!?” Instead, they say “OK, some guy named Alcaraz who plays tennis looks like the clearest bet for today…let’s roll! Let me see if I can track the scoring on the FlashScore app.”

I was and remain a degenerate, so I understand you. However, just realize that I am a professional bettor first and a degenerate second. So, I do have different levels of content in the Degenerate Club Report each day for you to review and assess…but if something isn’t there…don’t complain that it isn’t. Realize I am not going to report an angle or release selections if they aren’t quality. Sure you might be happy to have MLB to bet…but do you really want me bullshitting you on what wagers are worth your bankroll? I would think not.

Trust me, it is likely every Sunday we will have NFL to wager on because those markets are so active. Some Sunday’s might have 1 selection, others 3-5. I don’t want to listen to your bitching on an NFL Sunday when there is only one good angle to bet that week. If you want action, I am sure Vinny Boombotz…former Las Vegas Bookmaker…will provide you a package that day offering his NFL Game of the Week, Game of the Month, plus 5 additional best bets for only $25! I am sure you will do GREAT with such a package too. Oh and if you feel that way, I have some awesome stock in this incredible energy company named Enron that I will let you in on! Contact me today!

So, take the time to broaden your horizons in betting. If you have a favorite sport you need to bet every day regardless of what’s out there…that’s cool. There’s nothing wrong with that except that you need to accept and understand that your chances of profiting in that sport are slim at best. Which is also cool if you just want to have fun. People spend money drinking every week because they like it. So, you will just be choosing to spend money gambling because you like it. Just don’t expect a positive return at the end of the year. Betting a sport every single day that sport is in action will, without question, have you betting subpar and suspect wagers/angles…and that is not a recipe for long-term success and profit. At that point you are a casual or hobby bettor. Again, nothing wrong with that. However, if you want to be a pro and make an income in this business…you have to set aside your personal preferences. Look forward to the content and action, wherever it may be each day and don’t have favorites whereby if there is no content in your favorite sport or league that you are beside yourself with disappointment. Play the angles…don’t make them up!

Speaking of quiet days, today is one of them. Nothing much to report for sharp money except LA Dodgers +100 as we start the day. Let’s see what comes up and maybe gets our rollover rolling again. However, there is a public dog fade, and you know I love those.

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!