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Strategy, Commentary, Ramblings & Wagering
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Yesterday, in the Degenerate Club Report, I discussed that for the first time since basically the middle of June, the TSP Index fell below the 5 day moving average. The TSP Index measures momentum in the betting markets. It’s similar to a technical analysis tool in stocks. Instead of showing overbought and oversold assets, it tracks if the sharps have the momentum or the public. Gambling is all about runs so knowing when one run is ending can be very helpful to catching the next hot run…or minimizing the damage of the next cold run. There are always going to be hot runs and cold runs in your gambling. Doesn’t matter how good of a gambler you are. If you think you can only have hot runs in your gambling, well, you are a moron and you should thank God right now that you are still alive. Goodness knows it wasn’t achieved through your intelligence.
Anyway, yesterday I reported in the DCR that after Saturday’s action the TSP Index dipped below the moving average. This is a signal of a potential turn in the market which will see sides move against sharp money and toward public bets. It doesn’t mean I fade sharps and follow the public. It just means, to me, that I bet cautiously and lightly because some regression could be hitting.
July is the quietest month of the year in sports. However, despite how quiet the month was with action, it was actually a very strong month with performance. The degenerate rollover in the daily DCR report built up a 4.8 unit bank (100% house money) just betting 0.10 units of bankroll to begin the rolling. Intel performed well and even when there was a negative day, the next day would see the content bounce right back and then some. Couldn’t ask for anything more! However, it wasn’t always going to be that way from July 1st until the end of time. Eventually, there is going to be some regression. The easiest way to spot regression is a change in sharp/public momentums and the TSP Index aims to measure that movement.
So, after this run and when this dip in the TSP Index was reported yesterday, I advised light betting. Herein lies the problem, some people just can’t bet light and God forbid they take a day off from betting. I get it, I was the same way. For my first 10 years of betting, I bet roughly 3651 days out of 3652 (365.25 days in a year). However, you will never win long term if you expect to be able to bet and win by wagering every day you are alive. If sports gambling to you is like a cigarette to a smoker then yes, I get it. However, then you should realize the money you are wagering is already lost and you are doing this just for entertainment. Nothing wrong with that at all. I like the game of craps in the casino. I love to play it but I go in knowing it is entertainment and I will not win money over the long term. I accept that the money I take to the table is not bankroll but a payment to the casino for the fun and excitement I get out of those dice rolling across the table and their results. Sometimes I win big and its fun, sometimes I lose. In the end, you always lose…it’s just a matter of time.
Sports betting is different, you can affect the outcome. To win at sports betting though you have to treat it as a business and be disciplined. You can’t treat it as a junkie would and just fire away every day you have the itch. There’s nothing wrong with passing. Therein lies my point for today!
If the markets are looking sketchy as illustrated by the TSP Index and it’s been a good run, take a day off. It’s OK to take a pass and assess the action. It is one day and it is better to pass on a winner than bet a loser. Even if it is a Sunday in September…if there is nothing good to bet…don’t force it!! It’s hard to win at gambling and you don’t need to make the book’s job even easier by betting subpar wagers and forcing bets because you need action.
If you are doing this whole thing properly, in a typical 30 day month, you should be passing at least 10 days. If you need action on those 10 days when you don’t have material wagers (i.e. 1 unit) active, then bet a 0.10 unit rollover bet for fun. Otherwise, stay away and wait for the next good setup.
I know this is a topic of redundancy, but it is missed by so many people. People bet MLB yesterday like they needed it to stay alive. When the early total covered was losing, they immediately bet the next MLB game discussed…then the next…then the Sunday Night MLB fade. I can only do so much. I can tell you to be cautious betting as I did. I can tell you that because of where the Index was that if early action went wrong to pass the rest of the day. I can’t make you do it though. That’s up to you to decide. Here were my comments using the TSP Index yesterday in the Degenerate Club Report…
TSP Index: As expected based on the results yesterday, the TSP Index has dipped below the 5 day moving average for the first time since JUNE 20th!! It’s been a great run in that time. Of course not every day was a winner, but the fact the TSP Index did not dip below the 5 day moving average means that even when there was a losing day, we bounced right back the next day and got running again.
Now we are below the 5 day moving average, but it is only one day so far. I will be betting today, but I will be keeping it very light. If I lose an early wager, I will just hold off on any late action. I know this goes against all us degenerates believe deep down (firing bets like a madman) but it’ll save bankroll. Missing a winner is a lot better than betting a loser.
The TSP Index dipped below the moving average after Saturday’s action which is a signal. If you look at the MLB specific line on the TSP Index, it has been in a downtrend since July 19th. Using the TSP Index will not prevent you from ever having a losing day or experiencing a cold run HOWEVER it will DEFINITELY save you bankroll and help you manage your wagers exponentially better. Use the tools, assess the action intelligently, have a good bankroll management plan and avoid the urges!! You will come out ahead over the long haul.
TSP Live’s Degenerate Club Report will be out shortly. Not much popping yet, so figured I would do TSP Live Insider first. As such, no early buys to report at this time…sorry…I don’t force looks if nothing is there. Kinda goes right back to the topic of the day above!
That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!