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Strategy, Commentary, Ramblings & Wagering
The 6 month TSP Live football subscriptions (September through February) will go on sale August 27th!!
August subscriptions available now at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live
I know that The Sharp Plays content has always been a lot…and often overwhelming to new people. Many folks come to The Sharp Plays after paying for a handicapper’s selection package somewhere else. With those handicapper subscriptions all you get is an email or website message each day that says “I like 5 units on Team A, 2 units on Team B. Good luck!” Usually the content sucks, but with a report where someone is telling you what to bet, it is pretty easy to follow along perfectly, if you like. Now, compare that handicapper example above to something like the Degenerate Club Report, and they are worlds apart…let alone all the rest of The Sharp Plays content on top.
My goal at The Sharp Plays is to make you the most informed bettor around by using TSP Live and The Sharp Plays content. It is NOT and HAS NEVER BEEN to tell you what to bet. I don’t know what you should bet. I handle losing 5 units as a bad day, some of you handle losing 5 units as putting you on the precipice of jumping off a cliff. So, how can I say what you should bet? Instead, my goal is to give you all the best information I can find, the same information I am assessing for my personal wagers, and allow you to pick whatever works for you. Some people might lose and some people might win USING THE EXACT SAME CONTENT. There are days I get smoked in my bets, but on that same day someone else is sending me a message thanking me for TSP Live because they won a parlay using some of the content…awesome! That’s what I like to hear.
The problem in the past wasn’t so much that you had too much content, I think it was just you did not have a centralized way to assess that content…enter the Degenerate Club Report. The DCR revolutionized the content because it added commentary to the content, information and analytics. Instead of seeing a TSP Live Radar reading go from 65 to 71 and not have some background, the DCR provided that background on TSP Live Radar readings back during January. The DCR discussed Book Needs in detail, and let you know if sharps agreed or disagreed. The one-two punch of analytics tables to allow you real-time monitoring and then the DCR to explain what you were seeing seemed to bridge the gap that had existed for some time. Even outside the football season, the DCR really became a one stop shop. I started noticing that after I issued the DCR there was often very little to follow-up on as the day went along…which was nice. Nice because you could attack prices early and before they moved…and we all know that matters.
So, without further delay, let’s discuss the content plan for football. All of your favorite football analytics tables will be back…the TSP Live Radar table (new and improved…more on this shortly), the Book Needs table (to monitor Low, Medium, and High Level Book Needs) and the elite KB Consensus table (which has been stellar since it launched two years ago, including a 32-13-3 overall NFL & NCAAF performance last season). So, no changes to the tables, every table from 2022 will be back for 2023.
The TSP Live Radar got a little facelift. Last season there was a notes column in the TSP Live Radar table, and those notes will be expanding in 2023. It will allow you more information on key prices being hit, counter buys coming in, information about the action itself and more. It will help make the TSP Live Radar a great one stop tool to review ALL the action in the football betting markets and then go about your day. Notes will also be expanding in the KB Consensus and Book Needs tables as well. So, that covers what analytics tables will be there, what about the TSP Live alert content for the football season?
All your favorite alerts will be functional again too for football…
1) Analytics Alerts: These are the alerts that will trigger when a key situation or criteria is met within the analytics tables (TSP Live Radar, Book Needs or KB Consensus). So, TSP Live Radar readings of 74+, KB Consensus readings of 60%+ or Medium and High Level Book Needs…BUT ONLY when the calculated confidence in the angle is high enough that a material change is unlikely. Material change meaning a High Level Book Need could drop to Low Level or a KB Consensus of 60%+ could drop below 60%. Still OK angles to use, but not nearly as strong as when they meet key confidence readings. The Analytics aleerts will let you know when an angle is locked in.
What the hell is “calculated confidence”? Well, let’s say it is Tuesday and a KB Consensus angle pops up for Miami -8 in the NFL and has a reading of 68%. WOW!! A 68% KB Consensus reading is pretty high…but it is only Tuesday and the computer knows the action is light and that the 68% reading could be 51% or worse by game time. We say it happen last season! So, we might not want to go out and bet Miami on Tuesday when we know this reading is low betting volume and could easily change…or perhaps the action even has some hallmarks of a head fake setup. In a case like this, the KB Consensus algorithm would calculate a “low confidence variable” and would not issue an alert. It’ll still show on the analytics table, just no analytics alert. Sometimes the action can be large enough on even a Wednesday or Thursday for a Sunday game that it is highly unlikely to change in a material way (i.e. drop from 68% to below 60% and no longer be a rated wager) and so an alert is issued early on Thursday for a Sunday game. However, as we saw several times last year, there were KB Consensus readings of 66%, 63%, etc. at 11am ET on a Sunday that by kickoff just two hours later at 1pm were 54%, 51%, etc.
So, the moral of the story is it is important to check the analytics tables in TSP Live and see how the action is playing out each day of the week, but it is most important to wait for an analytics alert before wagering to ensure there are no changes, or that changes are highly unlikely. Yes, by betting early when you see something on the tables means you can lock in a great price. HOWEVER…there will be times when you lock in a solid KB Consensus wager price on Monday that is no longer a wager by Saturday…or worse, the other side is now the wager. While waiting sometimes causes us to get a worse line than jumping early, the late prices worked out fine last year and the year before as well. KB Consensus angles were 32-13-3 last year…and most of those alerts did not trigger until 10-15 minutes prior to the games going off…and thereby we got the worst prices possible. It did not matter though, and at least by waiting until the TSP Live Analytics Alerts triggered we had confidence we would not be on a bet that was no longer a bet when the game went off.
2) TSP Live Memos: Sometimes these include personal wagers or strategy messages I am sending out based on a topic or something that has come up in the action. Often these are just notes of things I want to make you aware of for your wager assessment. The Memos will be there for football.
3) Oddsmaker’s Report: Yes the favored content of the Oddsmaker’s Report. It is now a daily part of the Degenerate Club Report, but at times it is warranted that a separate Oddsmaker’s Report alert go out to notify you of late breaking information or action. In previous seasons these included everyone’s favorite “public prop fade”, “Group buys”, “major known bettor action”, “Book Positions” and a lot more. If there is one alert that people are eager to see hit the Telegram channel, it is the Oddsmaker’s Report alert. Click here for more details.
4) Late Information Alerts: These are new since the launch of the Degenerate Club Report and typically get issued within the 10 minutes prior to an event. These alerts let you know of Degenerate Club Late Release selections along with notifying you of a rush of late sharp action…or really ANYTHING worthy of reporting that comes out right before an event begins. The late money is often the best and sharpest money, and these alerts aim to keep you up to speed on all that action. I do apologize these come out with limited time to act, but they do not predict the future…they report on it as it happens…and often the best action happens minutes before the events.
5) Hermes: Yes, Hermes…the A.I. (artificial intelligence) bet assistant that I created before A.I. was a daily buzzword in the media (Hermes launched in November 2021). The love for Hermes was honestly shocking to me. I mean, I was very happy to see it, but there has never been a product that people were more pissed off about when I took it down for updates earlier this year. After this past football season I sent Hermes away to an undisclosed location. At that point Hermes went into a full blown offseason rehab program to update its coding, optimize its tools, connect more data feeds and further improve on its performance. Hermes took a lot of shit from the haters, but Hermes has NEVER dipped into the red on its wagers since it launched in November 2021. I will discuss Hermes and its role in the weeks ahead. Hermes is back though from the undisclosed location, but taking it easy by the beach and going through some further personal self-assessment as he gets ready for the football season. Week 0…Hermes will be READY!
6) Degenerate Club Report: Of course, the most popular content…perhaps that I have ever launched…even eclipsing the Oddsmaker’s Report is the daily Degenerate Club Report and it will continue being published every day. I think this report by itself will be the most powerful tool you will have at your disposal because it will tie EVERY OTHER BIT OF TSP CONTENT together. I am very excited to have the DCR for all sports and really excited to use it to cover football!
7) Lastly, I won’t say if this final bit of content is an alert, tool or something else, but as always I like to feature a new bit of content every football season to have for the year ahead. I have something I am working on at present and hope to unveil toward the end of August. I hope you will enjoy! Stay tuned for the updates!
What about Twitter and Telegram content for the season ahead? It will be the usual barrage of rollovers, public concentrations, interesting bets, general market information, sharp buys, known bettors, and other action…including the 1st Quarter NFL algorithm! I will of course also have my 1st TD pizza props for primetime games and more. Let’s go Dawson Knox!! Should be plenty of content to keep my beloved freeloaders busy and winning on Twitter and Telegram!
I will likely fill in some gaps in the weeks ahead, but the above are the broad strokes for football content. The message today is already long enough, so no need to really get into the minutiae. Suffice it to say, it will be a loaded football season of content…with all your favorite tables and alerts returning…but hopefully delivered in an organized manner so it isn’t overwhelming.
Lastly, you may start to see changes to the TSP Live Dashboard (https://TSP.Live/tsp-live-alerts/) as things get prepped for the season to begin. If you notice any errors or issues, please let me know.
As for early sharp buying…seeing some early money come in on Boston/Kansas City UN10 (-105), San Diego -113, Toronto/Cleveland UN9 (-120) and Houston/New England OV39 (NFL Thursday…it’s early, but popping).
That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!