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Strategy, Commentary, Ramblings & Wagering
Good morning!
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As we get ready for the football season, I thought one topic that would be good to address is a question I get almost every single day…how should I use the content? I know, there is a lot of intel, information and analytics that I deliver and it can be tough to organize. People tend to get easily overwhelmed, but it really does not have to be that way. So, let’s dive into this topic!
First and foremost, THERE IS NO MECHANICAL WAY TO BET THE CONTENT EVERY DAY! The previous sentence is very important point to accept because SO MANY people will contact me and want a format to filter and bet the content every day. Sure, that would be easy…you just do the same thing every day and make money, but as always, nothing in life worth doing is easy. As such, I can’t give you a rigid or semi-rigid plan strategy that is good for every day. I can’t say every day if you bet the sharp buys in tennis you will be good. Why? Every day is a new entity, with new parameters that will dictate the optimal gambling strategy, and thereby each day needs to be assessed that way. When you go into betting today or tomorrow, you should assess the following before deciding on your bets…
- What content is out there for the day ahead (graded and ungraded)? Is there a lot content and so it is probably a good idea that you filter it down, or are there only 1-2 angles (graded and/or ungraded)? If there are a lot, then you have to take some time to analyze. If there are only one or two angles then your job is easier. Also, there’s nothing wrong with passing and winning gamblers pass as much as 30 to 50% of the days each year. Not every day is a good day to bet! So, take the time to assess what’s out there in terms of quantity and thereby how much effort you need to put in to sort it.
- What is the TSP Index doing overall and by sport? What sports are trending up, so you would be open to betting, which sports are trending down, and perhaps should be avoided or bet lightly? Is the overall Index above or below the 5 day moving average signaling momentum for the public or for the sharp bettors? Knowing these can tell you what sports to avoid, what to follow and if you should just stay away altogether.
Example #1: Today the DCR provides two angles, both of them in baseball. However, when you check the TSP Index on this example day, the Index overall is trending down, it is below the 5 day moving average and the MLB line is also trending down. Perhaps take a pass since the only action is MLB.
Example #2: Today the DCR provides angles across every sport, but the only sports trending up are NFL and soccer. The Index line is above the moving average showing sharps have the momentum. OK, perhaps I will bet the NFL and soccer and leave the rest.
I love the TSP Index. I cannot tell you how many messages the past two months I have gotten which basically say the same thing…”I totally thought the TSP Index was bullshit, but since you put it in the DCR and I have been following it, it’s awesome and now I can’t wait to check it out each morning.” Yes, I will be the first to say that when I created the TSP Index I thought it was stupid and would never work. Then it showed promise and it’s been something I have used for the past 11 years, the past four of which it has been on TheSharpPlays.com daily. The TSP Index is the longest running analytic and slowly becoming one of the most popular. It’s not a coincidence…it does help filter the action and give you the green light to bet or the red light to take a pass. - Now that you have seen the content that is out there for the day (perhaps the DCR just got published) and now that you have filtered all the content based on the Index…now what? Check to see if there are any material line moves since the content was reported. Maybe you like the Twins -120, which was reported in the DCR, but an hour after the DCR went out the line is now -140. Even if you like it, that’s too much of a move and no need to further assess. Move on to assessing the next angle.
- How do you feel about the wager? Let’s say I reported a small sharp buy (good angle, but nothing overly exciting) on Tampa Bay -6 over Miami in the NFL. Well, all week you liked Miami. What should you do??? Either bet Miami or pass because of the conflicting information. Don’t blind follow. Even if you aren’t a handicapper, at least have an opinion on the action you are going to bet. BLIND BETTING IS THE WORST TYPE OF BETTING. If blind betting worked then you and I would just be following the greatest handicapper out there and following his bets…grinding huge profits every year and all the books would go out of business. You know why we aren’t following that person and you are instead a follower here…because no such person exists.
Back to my story on point #4…what if Tampa Bay -6 covers? Yes, you will be pissed you didn’t listen to the content, but you won’t remember that missed opportunity after that day. What you will remember, and what you will be sure to message me about is how the content pointed to Tampa, but you liked Miami and took a Tampa because of the content and then Miami went on to win OUTRIGHT. Yes, that’s why in these situations either stick to your confident feeling or pass. You can often be a great filter for the content, use the filter that is you!
The most successful TSP followers do not blind follow. They use the content as an intelligence briefing, check prices, line movement, their own methods and then come up with their wagers. If you are hoping to be lazy and gain easy money…it won’t work my friend. - What is your performance for the week? If you are having a great week, and everything in numbers 1 through 4 in the sections above lines up for a wager, perhaps you are more aggressive (in an intelligent and calculated way) in the number and size of your wagers. If you are having a bad week (AND YOU WILL..NO MATTER HOW GOOD YOU ARE) then perhaps you will be tighter with your bets in quantity and wager size.
- What is the performance of the content you are assessing? The graded content, to me, is relatively easy to follow and assess. It’s graded so you can view recent performance or streaks in the content logs at TheSharpPlays.com, you can can view the overall records lifetime for that content on the records tables at TheSharpPlays.com and then assess if you want to move forward based on that information or not.
With the ungraded content, usually you have a feel just because you have been watching the ungraded content all week how it is doing. If not…previous day’s DCR’s are available on the TSP Live Dashboard (link is in this website menu, on every subscriber alert that hits Telegram, at the top of this message and it is…https://TSP.Live/tsp-live-alerts/). Scroll through the alerts in the TSP Live Dashboard and do a quick skim to see how things are going. - Lastly, and this one won’t change each day…what type of gambler are you as an individual? Do you like a lot of action or do you like limited action? Do you want 5 bets or really prefer just 1 bet. You have to figure that out. Do you have a proper 100 unit bankroll that fits your financial situation or are you a more “fly by the seat of my pants” and a “my net worth is my bankroll” type of bettor. It’s not a good idea, but far be it from me to tell you how to live your life. I can only provide my advice…the rest is up to you. Do you get pissed on every single wager? Then you probably shouldn’t bet 8 wagers a day because it could be a bad day and you will be near volcanic in terms of anger. Each bettor reading this today is completely different from everyone else reading this today. So, you need to assess what type of gambler you are before deciding on content…which is also why blind following doesn’t work. If I am a bettor who is OK losing 5-8 units in a day, but you are a bettor who is ready to take a machine gun to your TV when you lose 1 unit…following me is an awful idea. So, know the type of bettor you are…HONESTLY…and that needs to come into play on how you use the content and thereby bet.
Why is it so hard to have a set strategy that is the same every day to tackle the content? Simple…#1 through #6 out of the 7 items above will change EVERY SINGLE DAY and they are the factors that will dictate the optimal strategy for you!
A lot of people just want me to say something like the following…this football season just bet KB Consensus and Oddsmaker’s Report because that content has done very well each year. The problem is…things changes and as the saying goes…past performance is not indicative of future results. So, while there is a good chance those will perform yet again, we just don’t know in advance. If we did, this whole thing would be pretty easy. So, take the time to assess the content. It doesn’t take a third of the time your brain is telling you it does. Just give it a try! You are going out hoping to make $10K, $50K, $100K, $500K, $1M or more each year from your gambling…it’s not going to be something you can do while on the toilet. Take a little time and it will pay dividends.
I treat every day as a new entity when I sit down and look at all the content (98% of which is what I discuss in TSP Live, on Twitter a.k.a. X and on Telegram). Now that I have all the content I run through the list above to filter the content and decide on my wagers. There are days the content across graded and ungraded angles and intel goes 10-1…and the only thing I bet was the 1 loser. I am still happy the content did well, but I missed the big day…it happens. There are also days the content goes 1-10 and I bet the 1 and got lucky to pass on the 10. So, don’t get pissed if your record doesn’t match the content for a given day. There will be days you underperform and days you over-perform and it should all shake out in the wash. I wish I could give you the a mechanical plan that is the same and consistent every day, but that’s now how life nor sports gambling works. You assess tomorrow in some ways based on today and in some ways based on what is presented tomorrow…then put it together to figure the optimal Tuesday strategy…then do it all again on Wednesday.
What about today’s early sharp buying? As tends to be the case with summer Monday’s, not a whole lot going on, but we do have a couple angles seeing sharp buying. Those angles are…Seattle/Kansas City UN8.5 (-120), Houston/Miami OV7.5 (-120), and Deportivo Alaves/Cadiz DRAW +205 (Spain La Liga).
That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!