The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.
Assessment: It is unlikely we get much, if any, real action today or next week. Most traders will use the fact that markets are closed on Thursday and close early (1pm ET) on Black Friday as a great excuse to head out of dodge yesterday (or in some cases Monday) and have a nice two week vacation. It is why trading has been typical for a holiday…low volume and bullish.
We probably won’t see any material action until the 27th when traders return and get ready for end of the month portfolio shuffling. Be careful trading options during this time because the lack of movement will mean fast decay of time premium…so even if you are right that we go up…it might not pay because time premium evaporate faster than the market moved to offset it.
So, I will be keeping an eye on things should an opportunity develop, however I do not expect much. With that in mind, let’s revisit our open position from last year…
I bought DraftKings last year at $28.06 with a long-term profit target of $70. My current hold time has been 21 months. After dipping down into the low teens, and grabbing some more stock there, DraftKings has launched higher and is now $38.09. Based solely on my $28.06 entry (and not my dollar cost down price when I added in the low teens), DraftKings has appreciated 35.7% for an average annual ROI of +20.4%. Not bad seeing as the S&P during this same time has appreciated just 2% (4409 to 4506 today).
In other news, I posted a Path Predictor chart of Bitcoin (https://sblk.io/2023/11/2NNnFBiphXIzsK1.png) back on November 10th. It did pretty good in predicting the immediate selloff near the resistance pivot. There was a day with a big spike as you can see in the current BTC chart (https://sblk.io/s/4bbdugiGFPUaxfpx), but that was reversed the next day. As of now, the current Path Predictor pattern holds thanks to that immediate selloff after the pop. Also shows how strong that resistance is. The caveat here is, unlike most trades, there is a major catalyst out there with the Bitcoin ETF situation. All bets are off when there are major catalysts as they can create wildly volatile trading. So, that is the caution I carry on BTC at this time. Trading BTC should be done cautiously, with the assistance of a licensed financial advisor, and with this looming catalyst in mind.
***FMA SUBSCRIBERS: UNLESS THERE IS SOMETHING EXCITING DURING THE TRADING DAY, I WILL HOLD MY UPDATE FOR THE FINAL HOUR OF TRADING AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.***
Good luck in your trades!