Yesterday saw the KB Consensus go 1-0 to move to 2-0 this weekend (2-0 on 60%+ readings, 0-1 on readings below 60%). The TSP Live Radar went 3-3 as Denver failed on the 2 point conversion attempt to bring a 4-2 day. The Book Needs went 1-1 (both low level) but the Top Teaser Leg and Top Parlay Leg fade was the same team this week and cashed…Chicago +8! The teaser won, but the parlay lost in a brutal fashion as the scoring in the Jets and Bills game was higher than expected but stopped dead in the 4th. TSP Live Algorithm Selections went 1-2. The 1st Quarter Algorithm however got the win for a 1-0 day! Totals continue to work very well! The TSP Newsletter went 2-1 with its selections. The Go Fast And Win analytics went 2-2 and lost 0.3 units on the parlay. Last but not least, the fade of the top 3 public props I posted to Telegram went 3-0!
Yes, I am going to bring this up again. I had a handful of sports betting meth addicts on my hands the past two weeks clamoring for content. I kept explaining I was concerned about sharp performance and was intentionally keeping it tight. The strategy limited sharp alerts to an 0-2 result combined over the two weeks. Those concerns were not present for me this weekend so I loosened up the parameters and sharp alerts this weekend went 3-0. Two weekends of losses erased in one! Patience! Not every day/week/weekend is a good one to bet.
We can’t avoid losses, but we can minimize them by betting tight when the warning signs are present. What are some of the warning signs? I look at a several factors, but the first is the level of sharp activity in the markets. When I go into the book’s system I can run a tool that assesses the sharp betting dollar volume in a sport. The tool will show me the average amount of sharp volume in a day compared to a day with similar markets (number of games). If the sharp volume is below average…that’s a concern. If sharps aren’t seeing value then why am I trying to fire bets? If sharp volume is above average, I feel more comfortable that there are opportunities out there. The other tool I use is the TSP Index. The Index measures who is on the run at this point (public or sharps). If the public is running and not the sharps and sharps are betting below average volume…I am sitting and waiting on the sidelines…it just doesn’t feel right. Maybe I miss a few winners, but I rather miss a few winners than to be present for a few losers.
Low level sharp buying…
Wisconsin/Virginia UN126.5 (NCAAB)
Purdue/Gonzaga UN155.5 (NCAAB)
Eagles/Chiefs OV45.5 (NFL)
****GO FAST AND WIN ANALYTICS TABLES ARE UPDATED!****