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The goal of TSP Live Action Alerts is to provide high level reporting of key action going on within the betting markets that can be useful in your wager assessment. These Action Alerts can cover any of the following content…
Known Bettor Report: These are the old school Robin Hood Selection reports I did back in 2019. Algorithms within the book are always running reports to find wagers from bettors who achieve a level of performance beyond standard variance (luck) for specific teams, leagues, events or situations. When these wagers occur, a Robin Hood Selection alert is issued.
Specific Known Bettor Tracking: These alerts will provide you notice that the specific “known” bettor I have been tracking all season for that league just placed an above average sized wager. Alerts will of course detail that wager and be issued within 30 seconds of the wager being placed at the book.
Sharp Big Bet Tracking: When a sharp bettor wagers 200% or more above their average wager AND that wager is above the book’s window limits, a Robin Hood Selection alert goes out to let you know! Formerly, this content posted to the Big Bet Tracker table within TSP Live. In the interest of speed in getting the information in your hands, the content was moved from a table to alerts.
Late Sharp Money: There was always a saying in gambling going back to the 1920’s…the late money is the right money. Knowing what wagers sharp money is getting aggressive on just before the events, when limits are at their highest, have proven to provide some good wagering opportunities.
Possible Head Fake: A head fake is when sharp bettors place wagers on a team, typically at lower limits with the goal of getting the book to move the price. At which point these same bettors then attack the wager at high limits on the other side. So, let’s say I like Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh this week. Tampa is +4, but I want to get Tampa +5.5. I will float some low limit bets on Pittsburgh -4 and -4.5. The book will see my action as a sharp bettor and aggressively move the price to -5. I might spend $5,000 moving the number. Once Tampa is +5, sometimes the public chases this steam and helps me out by moving the price to 5.5 by game day. On game day I now wager $250,000 across multiple books on Tampa Bay +5.5. So, I spent $5000 to get my target price which I then hit for $250,000. Obviously, this is somewhat of a dramatic example in terms of price move and dollars, but it is done for illustration. Although NFL head fakes often setup wagers that end up being $500K or more across multiple books and runners.
Odd Action: Sometimes you see action in the betting markets which just doesn’t make sense. It could be a flurry of sharp action on a wager when no news has come out to explain the sudden rush. It could be weird price action from books, etc.
TSP Live Action Alerts are broken down into two types (rated and unrated) based on the level of information being reported.
Unit Rated Alert: The information meets key TSP Live value and performance calculations and is thereby graded and logged.
Unrated Alert: The information within was flagged as interesting and informative, but it does not meet calculated TSP Live value minimums nor robot parameters to qualify as a 1 unit wager.
For performance records, please visit https://tsp.live/sports-records/.
Good luck!
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ANALYTIC NOTICE: Analytics are provided to give you access to information that you otherwise would not be able to obtain publicly.
Analytics ARE NOT DESIGNED NOR INTENDED to tell you what to bet. Analytics are provided to make you a more informed bettor when handicapping and making your wagering decisions.
If you are placing a wager simply because the wager shows up within an analytic or alert, you are using the information incorrectly, outside its intended use, and opening yourself up to unnecessary risk.
While some analytics and information covers sharp action, it should be noted that sharp action can occur for many reasons beyond sharp money feeling a wager has value. Sharp bettors frequently wager for the purposes of middling, arbitrage, hedging, buyouts and more. Analytics do not discern why sharp money is betting, they just report that sharp money is betting. Just because something shows as “sharp” should not be construed as meaning the wager has value 100% of the time. A wager showing as sharp should also not be construed as a best bet, regardless of the reading within the analytic. The best sharp bettors have a win percentage of 54-56% (betting spreads), not the 60-100% that many touts and other unsavory sports gambling industry jerkoffs (technical term) may want to portray.
Good luck in your action!