Regardless of what you think of me or the content I post, over the long term there is no doubt about the performance and quality of that content. I have the content since 2011 tracked at posted at TheSharpPlays.com… and it isn’t even close. It is not just limited to one sport or even domestic US sports. Just yesterday (this “TSP Live Charter” message was posted 9:45am ET on 9/20/20) I posted sharp Aussie Rules Football and sharp KBO, two sports that few cover and the content provided went 2-0… which was on top of the 2-0 provided in both leagues on Friday night as well… which is on top of current winning records for the season in both leagues! My point isn’t to tout (oh shit, there’s that word) my performance. It is rather just to try to get readers to take a breath and bet for the long term, not the short term. In the long term, I have no doubt that the combination of free and paid content will provide you with a very healthy annual return. I mean, there really is no debate. All records are tracked daily at the website for you to view… and not to mention dozens of other folks independently track everything for themselves and ensure I am completely accurate! The point is, in the short term it could be ugly. Prepare yourself to have ugly days and ugly weeks. It’s unavoidable and anyone who tells you otherwise is full of shit.
There is going to be a week at some point where TSP Live DOES NOT WIN A SINGLE GAME OVER THE WHOLE WEEKEND. Yes, it will suck, we will all be annoyed, we will all curse TSP Live for its deficiencies (regardless of the long term performance of TSP Live). However, it is STATISTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE to have 52 weeks of betting content and not to have AT LEAST one week where you lose every damn bet. Even if TSP Live were to hit 58% (which is quite impressive for sports betting) across all the TSP Live content/selections for the year, at least FOUR WEEKS of TSP Live will not have a single winner in them and as many as TWENTY TWO WEEKS or more will be losers. Holy shit!! However, despite how shocking those numbers may be (4 weeks with ZERO winners, 22 losing weeks total), in this example TSP Live still hit 58% on selections. Winning 58% on selections equates to a +10.73% edge against the house. So, what the hell does all this mean??
It means, the TSP Live content could hit 58% over the course of 1 year (52 weeks). The 58% win rate, assuming the worst possible juice of -110 on point spreads, means that TSP Live would have a +10.73% edge against the sportsbook. What that means is for every $100 you put into action on TSP Live content, you would collect $10.73 in PROFIT over the year. Despite how impressive those numbers would be, in the process of achieving that long term return (58% winners, +10.73% edge), you’d still have to experience four weeks without any winners and 22 out of 52 weeks you would lose money. Therein lies my illustration of short term versus long term. In the short term you have to experience losing days and weeks, some of which will be bloodbaths. However, when you look at the big picture, you printed money betting sports that year to the tune of a +10.73% edge you had over the house. You don’t need to win every week to make a healthy ROI betting sports. So, don’t try to win every week, it ain’t happening. Take it slow, be patient, grind it out and laugh all the way to the bank!
I will never do a daily selection service. It really is too much stress. The weekends of TSP Live is just enough stress in my life. Paid content is sort of a necessary evil. Without it, no offense, but I am not going to spend all the time and capital in delivery and content technology that I do just because I am a nice guy. Instead, I would tweet one or two things a day for fun and that would be it. Maybe I am not supposed to say that, but you know me, I pride myself on transparency. Whether transparency in records or in motives. So, I appreciate the support all of you provide with your TSP Live purchase. You purchase helps to support things important me and expand everything TSP! I wish every week could be a winner here, but statistically it is impossible. I wish there were never any bloodbath weekends either, but statistically it is impossible. Get ready for them because THEY WILL happen BUT… if you bet smart, stay disciplined and bet for the long term, statistically between all the paid and free content, you should come out well ahead of the game every single year. If you don’t, then you should never be purchasing TSP Live! Good luck and let’s have some fun!!