From TSP Live Insider on 12/26

Posted on 

To subscribe to TSP Live, visit https://TSP.Live/tsp-live

Yesterday saw the TSP Live Radar go 1-1 (Denver & DePaul), Book Needs go 1-2 (all Low Level with Knicks, Dolphins and Cardinals) and Book Positions go 0-1 (Dolphins again). As discussed in the alert yesterday, I wagered 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Miami -3.5. I lost that bet and then came back with pizza money bets the rest of the day going with 0.30 units on TB/AZ OV7.5 (+110)…I was early by one quarter, 0.30 units on Brown +1800 Score 1st TD, 0.30 units on Arizona +310 (damn OT), and 0.30 units on Conner Score 1st TD +750 which provided +2.3 units! Add it up and I won a MASSIVE +0.10 units. OK, not exactly massive, BUT it was a winner and that’s what is important!

What’s the point?? It’s a live illustration of how proper bankroll management and wager sizing can keep you in the game even if a key selection loses. In the Oddsmaker’s Report alert with the Book Position on Miami, I gave you a lengthy paragraph of the importance of practicing proper wager sizing. Ending that paragraph with “I just don’t want someone out there reading this and diving in head first and having an annoyed Christmas if Tua plays like…well…Tua! I am on the Book Position for 1 unit…won’t sweat the loss, yet will enjoy if the Dolphins win. Go Fins!” In the end, Tua did play like Tua, but if you heeded my advice you did not have an annoyed Christmas.

I know some people see certain TSP content, and due to its past performance will hit it for 5 units, 10 units or even more. The problem when you size wagers improperly is you do not leave yourself an easy way out if things go sideways. You only set yourself up for the good, you do not have any contingency for the bad. Even the sharpest of bettors, on point spreads and totals, will win 54-55% of the time. It means they lose 45-46% of the time. That’s a big portion of the time. So, if a specific wager lands in the 45-46% of the time versus the 54-55% of the time, and you bet that wager for 3,5,10+ units…you are going to have a VERY BAD DAY and it will be VERY tough to dig yourself out. Then you will go on Twitter, have a tantrum and a miserable day/week/month on top!

If yesterday you bet Miami for 5 units, you would have needed to wager 1.5 UNITS on all the pizza money bets to get even!! Conner +750 would have paid 11.25 units, but then deduct the three losing pizza money bets at -4.5 units and the Miami bet at -5.5 units. You would have finished with a +1.3 unit day after risking a total of 11.5 units!!! That’s outrageous and few people would have used 1st TD props as 1.5 unit bailout wagers. Which means you would have guaranteed yourself a losing day…in a large way…as soon as one single bet (Miami) failed to perform.

However, by properly sizing my wagers yesterday, I left myself in a position to turn a profit thanks to just one single pizza bet going my way. Had Arizona held on for the win, I would have net +1.33 units of profit yesterday overall…digging out completely and turning that profit thanks to nothing SOLELY to PIZZA MONEY BETS (Arizona +310 and Conner +750)! If my pizza bets did not go as planned and instead I went 0-4…I would have lost 2.3 units on Christmas Day from ALL of my action. Of course nobody likes to lose, but 2.3 units is very easy to recover from, whereas -11.5 units (see above paragraph) is not!

Proper wager sizing in relation to your action, proper bankroll management and proper discipline make SUCH a big difference in your wagering…even if NOTHING ELSE changes. Yesterday, proper wager sizing allowed me to sneak out of Christmas with a tiny win. Someone who went ridiculously heavy on Miami and didn’t play anything else is likely still having a tantrum in my DMs, emails or on Twitter somewhere. Bankroll management allows you to enjoy betting, not see it as some miserable torture. One of the biggest bits of positive feedback I get almost daily is how people have embraced bankroll management after following me and how it has changed their life. I know that sounds dramatic, but those are the messages and you would see it too if you tried it. Give it a shot and if you have questions, drop me an email or a message on Telegram…I am always here to help!

Given the performance of Book Positions and those being a blemish this football season, I thought I would take a look for myself as to where TSP content performance stood this season. So, I broke down the records this morning and here is what we have…

Below are where the records stood on August 31st at 7:59am ET…

KB Consensus (55-59%) 0-0 and +0.0 units
KB Consensus (60-69%) 62-44 and +13.4 units
KB Consensus (70-79%) 24-11 and +13.1 units
KB Consensus (80%+%) 3-1 and +1.8 units

TSP Live Radar DECLINES (51-59) 68-58 for +4.2 units
TSP Live Radar (60-64) 120-100 for +13.6 units
TSP Live Radar (65-73) 334-316 for +3.3 units
TSP Live Radar (74-79) 111-66 for +45.9 units
TSP Live Radar (80-89) 20-9 for +11.0 units
TSP Live Radar (90+) 1-0 for +1.0 units

Book Needs Low Level (60-69) 73-87 for -6.1 units
Book Needs Medium Level (70-79) 57-64 for +3.2 units
Book Needs High Level (80-89) 59-57 for +21.0 units
Book Needs High Level (90+) 9-3 for +10.7 units

Below are where those same categories stand on 12/26/22 (…

KB Consensus (55-59%) 9-6 and +2.4 units
KB Consensus (60-69%) 84-51 and +27.9 units
KB Consensus (70-79%) 24-11 and +13.1 units
KB Consensus (80%+%) 3-1 and +1.8 units
Difference is a 31-13 record for +16.9 units

TSP Live Radar DECLINES (51-59) 76-64 for +7.2 units
TSP Live Radar (60-64) 176-143 for +18.0 units
TSP Live Radar (65-73) 452-390 for +17.3 units
TSP Live Radar (74-79) 116-71 for +45.4 units
TSP Live Radar (80-89) 20-9 for +11.0 units
TSP Live Radar (90+) 1-0 for +1.0 units
Difference is a 187-128 record for +20.9 units…lead mostly by the 65-73 readings

Book Needs Low Level (60-69) 130-136 for -1.0 units
Book Needs Medium Level (70-79) 83-82 for +17.7 units
Book Needs High Level (80-89) 64-64 for +19.4 units
Book Needs High Level (90+) 10-3 for +11.7 units
Difference is a 89-74 for +19.0 units…led mostly by Low Level and Medium Level Book Needs. High Level Needs went 6-7 for -0.6 units.

Since August 31st…

Book Positions 3-7 for -4.7 units
Group Buys 6-6 for -0.6 units
Public Prop Fade 25-13 for +10.2 units
Parlays +8.7 units
Teaser +1.7 units
Action Alerts (*new in October* covering Known Bettor content) 34-23 for +9.8 units
Hermes (In-Play and Pregame) +1.47 units
Top Parlay Leg 5-3 for +2.5 units
Top Teaser Leg 6-3 for +2.7 units

Add it all up and it is +88.57 units since August 31st. Granted, that would be betting EVERY SINGLE bit of TSP Live content, which is not suggested, but barring you going balls deeps into Book Positions and avoiding every other bit of content, you should have ground some profits this season!

Only thing missing above is the non-football TSP Live Radar, currently -12.9 units. The TSP Live Radar was designed for football, but I attempted to use it last year outside football and it just didn’t translate. I made changes to the non-football TSP Live Radar and once again this year it isn’t showing a lot. Although, it is profitable in NHL, NCAAB and MLB…it is negative in NBA and tennis. So, we will see how it goes as I continue to toy with it. Fortunately, the TSP Live Action Alerts fill the void for quality NBA content.

Book Positions remain the lone blemish, and yes it is annoying! Yes, Group Buys are also in the red, but only one game and they are in the green, so they are right there. Book Positions need a little more help. If the Book Positions could get to the green before the end of the season it would be the coup de grâce for this season as it would mean every category of TSP Live content finished in the green! Obviously, the rest has to hold, but with only one major week of bowls, two weeks of NFL regular season then limited playoff games, TSP Live will finish a winning season overall regardless of how things finish out. This season was much more of a grind than 2021…but grind we did!

Not counted in the above would be the public football content (posted to Twitter and Telegram) this season (…

Sharp NFL 16-9 for +6.1 units
Sharp NCAAF 21-13 for +9.0 units
NFL 1st Quarter Algorithm 10-10 for -2.7 units

There were definitely some shitty weeks and some epic winning weeks along the way. Some negative grinds and some positive grinds. However, when you zoom out over the season in its entirety, taking the good with the bad, you have a very healthy profit that was ground out!

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!