As I told someone yesterday…”Hopefully the combination of articles [I am doing this month] will help put together a picture but yes, handicapping horses is an art and something people do for the love of it. If you don’t have that passion for it…it’s not worth the time because it will never work!“
With the success of the Triple Crown wagers at The Sharp Plays there was a natural inclination by bettors of “I want to learn how to do this too.” As though I could give you 3-5 pointers, send you on your way and you would actually have a chance…more than rolling a dice…at picking value horses that perform. Teaching someone to handicap baseball is rather straight forward…look at a team’s recent performance in their record, their overall record on the season, check for key injuries, review the starting pitcher matchup and the stats for each pitcher and you can put together a rudimentary wager assessment. Horse racing is not so clean. Unlike MLB teams who play each other over and over during the course of the season, horses often come into a race from different tracks, racing against different horses, some are coming off a layoff, others were racing at higher class levels, and on and on the list goes. So, there is no standardization in a horse race like there would be when comparing teams in NBA or MLB for wager assessment.
The better handicapping comparison in horse racing would be imagine trying to handicap a baseball game, except the game involved a team from the South Korean KBO playing against a AAA baseball team in the US. There’s no standardization because these are different leagues, between teams who never play each other, and there is no basis for assessing past performance of a KBO team playing a AAA team. So, think of how deep you would have to dive into the stats to handicap the game. You would need to see average pitching speed and styles in KBO versus AAA to see if there is any edge. You would then need to assess how the hitters on each team handle the average pitching style and speed of the other league. You would need to assess who is traveling where for the game. It would be a far deeper handicap than handicapping an MLB game where things are standard because it is one MLB team versus another. That’s why the form has so much information packed into those little sections for each horse on the racing from. It is trying to give you a full view of the horse and various stats/data points so you can compare horses in your handicapping given each horse is coming in off a different previous race, experience, sometimes races have horses of different ages, then there’s those arrivals from different tracks and/or having raced in different classes of race. often. Everything I just laid out is only a sliver of all the moving parts to horse race handicapping. The way to put these horses on a level playing field to assess them in the upcoming race then becomes looking at how the trainers and jockeys do at the current track. When was the last time the horse raced? Is the horse moving up or down in class or distance? How did the horse run in its last race? All these little things play into how prepared a horse will be for the competition it faces today.
Andy Beyer is the creator of the first tool which really revolutionized horse racing. He created the Beyer Speed Rating which was found in the Daily Racing Form. The speed rating was an attempt to standardize the horses and show how fast they are in a single number. In the past this was done using distance and time only and computed in different ways by the handicapper him/herself. Beyer incorporated more factors into his speed rating. You also see speed ratings in the Brisnet.com racing forms that I am posting for these articles.
Speed ratings allow you to get an idea of a horse’s speed in their previous races based on a calculation Beyer devised. By creating a means of standardizing speed between horses we could now use these speed ratings for past races to compare horses in the current race. So, Horse #1 might have speed ratings of 85-86-71-83 in his last four races. Gives me an idea that this horse has an average speed around 81. Horses in the Kentucky Derby might run with speed ratings of 98-105 or more. Horses in an average race at a top tier track like Saratoga will average 80-90. In a stakes race at Saratoga it might be 95-100+. If you have a race and one horse (“Horse A”) has speed ratings of 85, 82, 81, 84, 83 in its last 5 races, and other horse (“Horse B”) has speed ratings of 82, 80, 79, 80, 78…you would clearly say the bet would be Horse A because his speed is on average better than Horse B. However, what if Horse B just had a solid workout in the past 10 days and Horse A is coming off a ten month layoff? Changes the picture A LOT. Horse A had good speed…but is now ten months older and this is its first race off a layoff. Horse B has been racing recently and shows good form due to a solid recent workout…I might look to Horse B.
Anyway, you can see how this speed rating helps us dial down a horse into how fast they run, but there are other factors to consider beyond just speed. Think of it like a car. If you went from point at to point B at 95 MPH, your speed rating might be “95”. If I ran the same distance, my speed rating is likely a “10” because I can’t run anywhere near 95 MPH. So, now you know nothing else but you know that if we were going to race and people knew nothing other than you have a speed rating of 95 and I have a speed rating of 10…who is everyone going to bet? Sure, you bet the 95 because it’s a race and a 95 speed rating is far faster than my 10. However, what if I said the race was going to be in a foot of mud and you are driving a Ferrari…now what do you bet? Sure, the car is faster…but will it have traction and be able to move in the mud. The mud will likely slow me down too…but I might be better suited for mud racing than you…and that’s another factor of assessing horses…some don’t perform on wet/muddy tracks and some perform exceptionally on such tracks. How do you know? All that mud and sloppy versus fast and good track performance is listed right on the racing form. Long story short…summarizing speed into a single figure is very helpful, but it’s not the only thing. Now you have to assess the type of race, its conditions, etc. to get a full assessment on the horses and the race.
Why isn’t speed everything if it is a race? Some horses are being put in a race for a tuneup…whereby the trainer just wants the horse to get some competition but isn’t racing to win. Some horses are coming off a layoff…so their speed ratings from 3,6,9 months ago don’t really mean anything today. So, the Beyer speed ratings were a huge help, but like the TSP Power Ratings…you need to further assess the horses beyond speed.
The TSP Power Ratings use speed, but they also use pace, pedigree of the horse, class rating of the horse, track performance, jockey performance, trainer performance, and more to give me a rating of the horse. Once again, like Beyer, these TSP Power Ratings have proven to be highly effective in handicapping the races, but when combined with fundamental handicapping (checking recent workouts, assessing potential jockey/trainer intent for the race, looking at the prices in the pools when the race is approaching) the TSP Power Ratings are second to none and a great filter.
The key is learning how to read a racing form. It would be far too long for me to type and explain the ins and outs. So, I will defer to you doing some Google searches if you have an interest. However, there is a relatively simply read and breakdown by Brisnet that could really get you up to speed. So…
Here is a link on BRISNET.com for how to read the “Ultimate Past Performance” sheets… https://www.brisnet.com/content/brisnet-online-horse-racing-data-handicapping/read-brisnet-com-ultimate-past-performances/
It is long and will take time, but print out today’s race form (link below) and then visit that link at Brisnet above and you can follow along and really get yourself up to speed. Here’s today’s form for the race I am covering…
Here’s the Racing Form for Race #5 (CLICK HERE)
Here is what the TSP Power Ratings say for this race: 3-7-5-8/6-4/1-2
Since the ratings were run, the following horses were scratched from the race: #4
Now let’s dive in…
From yesterday’s article you hopefully now know where to find the notes for each horse in the racing form. The notes provide a simple handicap of each horse based on key factors. Today I will dive a little deeper into the stats/information provided in the form for each horse.
I am going with Race #5 for this example. The race is 7 furlongs and would be considered a sprint. A “route” is a race that is 1 mile or longer. We can see by the top section on Page 1 of the racing form that the race is a $50,000 claimer with a purse of $80,000.
First, let’s filter out some horses based on the notes. I am going to filter out the following horses for the reasons cited…
#1) Poor speed figures, beaten by weaker horses in its last race.
#2) Coming off a 6 month layoff and no official workouts at Saratoga. How can you tell about the workouts? See the bottom of the section for Horse #2? There are two rows of numbers with the top row starting “11 Jly Bel tr.t 4f ft”. These are recent workouts and I would like to see “Sar” as the last workout. Instead I see “Bel” which is Belmont. So, I have a horse coming off a layoff without any prep workouts at Saratoga…I’ll pass.
With the above two removed, I am left with 3,5,6,7,8 because the 4 is scratched.
#3) The horse got 2nd in its last race and lost by 1.5 lengths. You can see this on the race breakdown where it says “28June24Lrl”. Again, deciphering this sort of stuff takes a little time, it’s all about whether this is interesting enough for you to learn. What that text tells me is on June 28th, 2024 at Laurel Park, the horse ran a 6 furlong race in 1:11^3. In that race it opened up in 2nd by a head, then held 2nd by a head, in the stretch it got into first by a head and then at the finish it had fallen back to 2nd by 1.5 lengths. Going all the way to the right side of the form I can see that the horse (based on the comments)” had a long battle inside, led the race, and finished “gme” or “gamely”. Gamely is defined by Equibase as “A horse that narrowly misses victory. He has either dueled for command from the outset and gave way grudgingly in the late stages, or set all the pace and just missed.”
You can visit https://www.equibase.com/products/cc-comments.cfm for a breakdown of what the various comments mean.
We can also see in the top right hand corner of #3’s section on the form that in 2024 it has had 5 starts, 0 first place finishes, 3 second place finishes and zero third place finishes (top right hand corner “2024 5 0- 3- 0” below the “Life” which is lifetime performance).
So, not a bad horse, fought had in its last race but tired late. Could be an issue today as it is moving up from 6 furlongs in the last race to 7 furlongs in this race. Definitely a horse to note thought as it has gotten 2nd in each of its last three races.
#5) The horse has not raced in 47 days, but it does have a good workout on July 13th…the problem is that workout is not at “Sar” but at “TP”. Similar to stock ticker symbols, you eventually learn all these different codes from memory and knowing the various major tracks in the US and Canada. I know “TP” as Turfway Park which is a synthetic track. You can google what that means. Here is a link of track name abbreviations that are commonly used: https://www.equineline.com/dirreffr.cfm?topic=rfnatrck%2Ehtm.
I would much prefer to see a workout at Saratoga to show the#5 horse is primed for this track despite the layoff. The horse got 4th in its last race back on June 1st, but that was a $100K stakes race…so it was against tough competition. The [S] before each race type on the form means the track was “synthetic” versus dirt. Horses do race differently on synthetic so that’s a concern here because again, we have nothing to go on for how this horse will handle the Saratoga dirt.
So, a good horse given the stakes race, but can it handle dirt? Last time it raced on dirt was September of 2023 when it got 5th. Every other race was on a synthetic track which can be noted by the “[S]” you see before each race type in the form.
#6) Skipping to the comments section shows this horse had an “Awkward Break” out of the gate in the last race and was “off slw” or off slowly out of the gate. So, clearly had some issues in its last race at the start that likely doomed it. So, we can throw that out. The race before the last one the horse was bumped in the break out of the gate, but then appeared to catch a nice run in a 7 furlong race which saw it win by 2.25 lengths. Potential here because we have a drop in class, hopefully it gets out of the gate better, and it had a competitive speed rating in its win at 7 furlongs.
After that race at Saratoga on June 8th, the horse then had a workout at Saratoga on July 3rd where it ran a decent 48^1 over 4 furlongs. Not bad. Learning what makes for a good workout time based on the different tracks simply takes experience of seeing the various numbers over and over again. In general, for a 4 furlong workout I would like to see the horse below 48^5…if it is under 48…then I am really interested. I do have to stress though…what makes a good time at one track might not be a good time at another track. These variations are usually less than a second, but that does mean something.
#7) Failed as a favorite in its last race and was out more than 2 months. However, the horse got a good recent workout…but not at Saratoga…this was at Belmont. The trainer is winning 29% of his races with horses in their first race off claiming them. The horse’s best speed is better than any of the other horses in this race. Clearly a good looking horse and likely why it is the favorite.
Going back to the #6 horse…it got that 48^1 on Saratoga’s track and there is no note about a “Sharp 4F workout” like we see for the notes of the #7…yet the #7 had a workout at Belmont over 4F in 48^4! That’s what I was talking about in the differences between tracks when it comes to workouts. The 48^4 on Belmont’s track is considered “sharp” but the 48^1 on Saratoga over the same distance and ride style (“B” for “breeze”…which means the horse was just running at a moderate speed and effort…the other style is “H” for “handled” which usually means the horse was put under the whip and run hard).
Here is a link to notes for deciphering Workouts: https://www.equibase.com/newfan/workouts.cfm.
#8) Horse was beaten by weaker horses in its last race, but it does have a tie rating for the highest speed in its last race. It’s best dirt speed is also better than the average winning speed rating for horses who have raced in the past in this type of race at this track and distance. The concern I have is if you go to the horse’s previous races, you can see it was trained by Norman Cash and is now trained by Eduardo Caramon…by the way, you might wonder how I am finding all this stuff. I am not really getting into the little things, but all of the stuff I am discussing can be found within the horse’s section of stats on the form. So, if you don’t know how I found out that Eduardo Caramon is the current trainer nor can you see how I knew the previous trainer or how I also know that Eduardo Caramon has had 3 horses start with 0 wins, 1 second place and 0 third place finished for his horses)…simply search the section on the form for the #8 horse until you see the word “Caramon” and then see if you can piece it together. Then try to find “Norman Cash” listed somewhere in that same section and the picture should begin to focus a little. Much of learning horse racing is getting familiar with the racing form. A lot that seems complicated can be easily broken down by spending a little time navigating the form and running some searches…or viewing the pages I linked above to the various horse racing websites and the link showing how Brisnet breaks down the Ultimate Past Performances for you.
Anyway, the #8 is not a bad horse, but some concerns given the trainer move. Is the horse really ready one race with a new trainer to blow by everyone else? Maybe…but its lower probability. The race could just be a test with little interest in winning for the trainer to gauge where this horse should be.
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So, with all the above said, I have filtered the horses I like down to 3,5,6,7,8
I have concerns with the #8 (new trainer) and #7 (current favorite but a lot of questions with the 2 month layoff and no workouts at Saratoga…it might win but it won’t be a value given the unknowns).
For the horse I like to win I have now filtered down to 3,5,6
I have seen that the TSP Power Ratings have: 3-7-5-8/6-4/1-2
The TSP Power Ratings also throw out the 1-2. When using the TSP Power Ratings I like to lean on using one of the Top 5 horses for my win spot. Once I have selected one or multiple horses for the win spot, then I am open to anyone for the 2nd or 3rd spot (3rd if I am betting a trifecta). So, I would have 3,5,6,7,8 as my top horses…the same five I got to after my handicapping….but I then removed 7 &8 for the reasons cited above.
I am left with 3,5,6 for my “Win” or 1st Place spot in an exotic. I am then open to any horses for 2nd Place…and this race seems wide open to me. I don’t really have 1-2 horses I like for 2nd Place, but instead really like anyone but the 1-2…and of course the 4 because it is scratched.
Taking all this into account, I come up with the following exacta…
$1 Exacta Wheel
1st: 3,5,6
2nd: 3,5,6,7,8
Total Cost: $12
Post Race Update: The order of finish was 3-7-1-6 and the 3-7 exacta paid back $14.40 for every $12 wagered.
We lost $12 on yesterday’s example…let’s see how we do today. Hopefully the favorite is out of the top spot and we should get a decent price!
Good luck!