In the last two episodes of “Saratoga Handicapping” I dove int races in looking to find the value. However, what if you have a horse you absolutely know is going to win…but it is going to be a big chalk and likely not a value BUT YOU JUST HAVE TO HAVE ACTION TO IT!!!!
Alright, in these cases you would use a mix of handicapping and value searching. There is one such race that fits this mold for me at Saratoga. It is Race #11.
The TSP Power Ratings for Race 11: 3/4-1/5-2
BRISNET.com Racing Form for Race 11 (Click Here)
The #3, Thorpedo Anna is a name you might recall from the Kentucky Oaks and then the Acorn on Belmont Stakes day back in early June. Thorpedo Ann blew away the fields in both races and has been training very well leading up to this race. Those were very strong fields of horses too…today’s field is rather laughable by comparison. So, if the jockey doesn’t screw this up or fall off the horse I would be shocked if Thorpedo Anna does not win. I have been shocked before and Thorpedo Anna’s prices will be -EV as a win bet…so it is not worth betting straight. Don’t go and put $50,000 on Thorpedo Anna because “she can’t lose”. There is A LOT that can happen in a horse race. So, instead of a $50,000 win wager on a -EV horse, let’s try a $20 or less exotic using Thorpedo Anna.
The option becomes putting together either a Superfecta (first 4 horses) or a Trifecta (first three horses). By being able to wheel or key Thorpedo Anna on top, we can maybe get a price to come in and provide a good exotic.
In this race, just based on the TSP Power Ratings, the horses morning line odds are…
3 = 1/2
4 = 5/1
1 = 5/2
5 = 8/1
2 = 20/1
If we “assume” for wagering that Anna wins the race, then we put here in our top spot.
1st: #3
Now we can do either a trifecta or superfecta. I would not be interested in an exacta because with Anna there it isn’t going to pay much.
If the race goes 3-1-2-5-2 then the exotics are worthless. There’s no value or money if that is the order of finish. If Anna wins, then the #1 cannot come in 2nd place. So, that leaves me 2, 4 or 5 for my 2nd place spot in the wager. The 2 is an a rough horse and doesn’t have much going for it as you can get just by the notes. I don’t see it for the 2nd Place spot. So, I will use 4 & 5 for my 2nd Place spot in the wager.
2nd: 4,5
Now if I want to make this a trifecta or superfecta, I technically could have 1,2,4,5 for the third place spot. However, given there are only 5 horses in this race, and given the #2 is a rough horse on paper. Everyone who boxes the Superfecta or Trifecta is going to do it as 1,3,4,5…throwing out the #2. To have a good price we NEED the #2 in the trifecta and the #1 out of the trifecta is Thorpedo Anna is to win. So, based on this value assessment, I would want 2,4,5 for the third spot to create my trifecta.
I am not playing a superfecta because there are only five horses and every idiot will just box all five horses to guarantee a payout. Dumb…but it’s going to happen and thereby the Super won’t pay what it should. However, a proper trifecta that includes the #2 but removes the #1…should that hit…would likely carry a +EV payout. So, let’s do it based on what I have put together so far.
$1 Trifecta
1st: 3
2nd: 4,5
3rd: 2,4,5
Total Cost = $4.00
The above breakdown didn’t really use the racing form much. Instead my wager here is solely based on my thoughts on Thorpedo Anna and this being a weak field (based on the smaller stakes races the rest of these horses outside Anna are coming from) combined with the TSP Power Ratings as a filter while trying to find the optimal payout with Thorpedo at the top.
My goal with this “lesson” is to show how you can breakdown a race based on a horse you like and then make value assumptions as to the best way to take a wager that is going to be +EV versus betting you “lock” straight and heavy…and then having some bad luck take your lock out…with a large amount of bankroll. You may not win but when you do win it will cover all those losses in the process and turn a profit because you are keeping value on your side!
Let’s see how it goes today!
Good luck!