The TSP Index (https://TheSharpPlays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/) just moved into an uptrend after 16 days of downtrend. The typical run within the Index (uptrend or downtrend) tends to last around 7-10 days with 75% of runs ending within 14 days. A consistent run in the Index lasting 20+ days is considered “long”.
So, let’s say the average run is 7 days (also known as a “week”). If the average run is a week, that would mean every year you will experience 52 runs in your gambling (hot or cold). If we assume you win around 55% of the time, you would be expected to win 28.6 weeks of the 52. Let’s round up and say that’s 29…which means that you have 29 winning weeks and 23 losing weeks each year. So, you essentially only have 6 net winning weeks every year which provide the bulk of your profits.
Sure, typically an average winning week will see you win more than you lose in the average losing weeks…when you bet properly. So, you will grind additional profits by minimizing losses and maximizing wins. However, most people do not bet properly. Most people panic when losing and actually bet more per wager in cold streaks than they do in hot streaks…do you see the lunacy of that math? It is for the reasons in this paragraph that I stress patience. You can’t force a hot streak to come simply by betting big. Hot and cold runs are like good and bad weather. When the weather is bad, hunker down and bet tight. When the whether is good, get out and enjoy the blue skies and sun as you expand your betting risk. Only idiots go fishing in a hurricane. Sure, sometimes it pays off (ask Forrest Gump), but that tends to be the very rare exception rather than the rule. Don’t bank on exceptions.
The point of this article/lesson is to: (1) illustrate how tight the margins are in professional betting, (2) show that cold streaks are very common (23 of 29 weeks each year are cold) so they should not be a shock when you have them REGULARLY, (3) Maximizing wins in hot streaks and minimizing losses in cold streaks is essential to success as it further expands your profits, (4) the bulk of your profits come from those 6 net winning weeks out of every 52 weeks…again showing the importance of patience!
I get novices who bitch and moan all the time because they don’t just win money every day or there are several weeks in a row of losses. Sorry my friends…that’s the game. I am sure there is some unsavory tout who will tell you that all they do is win and then rarely have losing weeks…they are full of shit. Any professional will tell you this business is a grind. People love the movie and lifestyle of Matt Damon in Rounders, so take some advice from it! My favorite quote from that movie is on the front page of TheSharpPlays.com…
“Guys around here will tell you, you play for a living, it’s like any other job…you don’t gamble, you grind it out. Get your money in when you have the best of it, protect it when you don’t. Don’t give anything away!” – Rounders (1998)
How perfect and concise an explanation of professional gambling…it’s a grind and you need to minimize losses when you lack optimal setups and maximize wins when the setups are in your favor…don’t piss away units out of stupidity.
People also put very high expectations on how their performance as professional gamblers will go. When those expectations are not met…then I get the whining and complaining messages discussing how awful it is that we don’t just win tons of money every week or month. At the time of this article, what is clearly the most followed TSP content would be the TSP Live Radar (37-25 for 59.7% and +16.5% ROI), KB Consensus (4-1 for 80% for a +53% ROI), TSP Portfolio (+9.1% ROI in 2024, 1+6.9% ROI lifetime), Wolf (+17.6% ROI), Tony (+11% ROI), TSP Bot (+7.0% ROI). The average professional sports bettor’s ROI is +5%. The AVERAGE SPORTSBOOK HOLD (their ROI on the action they book) is +6 to +8%. All the TSP content listed in this paragraph provides a higher ROI than the average professional sports bettor and all but the TSP Bot provides an ROI higher than the average sportsbook. So, why own a sportsbook? Betting TSP content provides you a better ROI!
Yet despite the stats above, and the resulting performance delivered by The Sharp Plays, there are people who complain about the performance. I am not talking about haters who complain to complain…I mean real gamblers who do not realize how rare this type of performance is in gambling…yet complain that it isn’t good enough for them! People who literally have complained that they “aren’t winning enough”! IF THEY ONLY REMEMBER WHAT IT WAS LIKE TO BE A PUBLIC BETTOR WITH AN ROI OF -5% to -7%!! If you are a complainer…please go somewhere else and I will see you back in a year (or usually A LOT sooner) when you have bankrupted yourself betting and learned these lessons the hard way…coming to realize that TSP is indeed The Sharp(est) Plays around…and the education provided here is even sharper!
Good luck!