You may have noticed the TSP Legal Pad has been quieter in recent weeks. When it comes to KB Consensus, I tend to keep these off the tables until an hour or two before the game at most. The reason is not to screw you…and nothing has changed with the methodology. So what’s different?
The Sharp Plays and TSP Live content is so good that many services/handicappers are subscribers here and steal the content to reuse as their own. When they do, they put it out to their own subscribers and people start moving prices…before the TSP Army can watch the action play out and then decide to move on a wager.
I recently did a test using the book’s consensus service report. One of the books I work with uses bots and other consensus service reports to create an “ultimate” consensus listing of Twitter cappers, handicapping services, media personalities, etc. to create a real-time updated list of what over 500 different handicappers/services are releasing for their plays each day. It allows the book to adjust lines based on expected action…follows and fades. I have noticed consistently that when I post a key bit of intel or angle, one that I know is attractive, say a group buy or a possible KB Consensus angle, that there are several dozen services which put out the same play as their own within the ensuing 5-15 minutes. It is now far too consistent not to be a coincidence.
It’s the old saying…if you can’t beat them, join them. Very few (perhaps ANY?!?!?) handicappers/services can beat the performance and quality of intel here at TSP, so they join TSP!
For example, if today I said there was a major group buy on San Francisco on Sunday (they aren’t playing BTW) and put that on the Legal Pad, but wanted to wait and see how the action played out because it was early, there are services who will report San Francisco as their own (Game of the Year, Lock, 10 unit wager, etc.) and before I decide to do anything with the wager…the price has already moved too much to make it a possible play anyway. It was The Sharp Plays intel, but these other services moved on it and now it is no longer a possible option for us to attack.
You might say…TSP…why don’t you release it as a wager/graded angle immediately so we can secure prices and then it is impossible for others to act first? I could, and there DEFINITELY will be times that I do, but I tend to like to see how further action plays out. Yes, that means I often do not get the best price…but TSP systems/angles/strategies target such high value that even grading the TSP Live Radar and KB Consensus on the closing price…which is usually the worst price possible…has resulted in a 55-60%+ long-term win percentage…which is unprecedented in sports gambling. Yes, that is impressive and EXACTLY why so many want to use TSP Live/TSP content because they can never perform better in any way on their own.
By waiting to act on TSP angles, intel and Portfolio wagers, I do forgo some line value and occasionally that bites us in the ass, but it also allows me to operate using the largest volume of information to make a selection (due to betting later and allowing the most information to drop). When others move on TSP intel/angles before I am ready to make my move, they push price beyond the limits of value and that creates a situation where we have to pass.
The good news is there are A LOT of easy solutions to this problem of getting skunked on TSP’s own intel/action, so this is not a major problem at all, but I just wanted to explain why I am not showing The Sharp Plays hand early in the week through possible angles, reporting of intel, etc…or now even early in the day like I used to. I know it can be a pain in the ass to get an alert 10, 30, 60 minutes before a game, but it also ensures nobody beats us to our own intel/action and we get the value because it is our intel/angles that everyone else wants to bet!
Further details to come, but just a heads-up as to the reason you might have been seeing a difference lately with less intel reported far in advance and more coming within the hours leading up to a game instead.
Good luck!