đ§ A Year-End Mystery: “Why Did I Lose?”
No matter how good the content does again for this year, I will undoubtedly hear from several people wondering how they managed to lose money during what will once again be a winning year for the TSP Portfolio and Hermes A.I.
They often say:
“I followed everything! How did I still lose?”
But the truth is, most didnât actually follow everythingâand thatâs where the disconnect begins. Letâs break down the common traps.
đ¨ Trap #1: Strategy Hopping
Many bettors canât resist the temptation to chase the hot hand. When the TSP Portfolio or Hermes A.I. has a rough week, they abandon ship and jump to another handicapper who happens to be hot. But timing is cruelâyou usually catch the cold streak of the new system right after abandoning the one about to turn hot.
â Important Reminder:
The Sharp Plays content has been public since 2011â15 years without a losing year!
Still, gamblers expect perfection:
- No losing months
- No losing weeks
- Not even a bad day
Thatâs just not how professional gambling works. And those unrealistic expectations lead to bad decision-making.
đ¸ Trap #2: Bankroll Mismanagement
Even those who stick with the right service often fall into another pit: poor bankroll management.
Hereâs the truth:
đ Bankroll management matters more than your win percentage.
You can have a sub-52% win rate and still be profitable if you know when to press and when to scale back. Most gamblers do the opposite:
- Press during cold runs
- Tighten during hot streaks
The result? Losses pile up even when the core strategy wins overall.
đŻ Trap #3: Betting Detours
Another mistake is straying from the plan. For example:
- You follow the TSP PortfolioâŚ
- But suddenly throw down on the Yankees because âthereâs no way they loseâ
- Then toss in a UFC fighter bet for fun
You lose 3 units while TSP Live might have been up 3 unitsâyou turned a winning day into a breakeven or losing one. Those âjust this onceâ bets can snowball over time.
â Pro Tip:
Keep a separate bankroll for recreational or âhunchâ bets, or limit them to small stakesâpizza money style. It scratches the itch without tanking your long-term profitability.
đ¤ Trap #4: Overanalyzing â Trust the Data, Not Just Your Instincts
A common mistake among bettors using TSP content is deviating from the suggested strategy. Itâs tempting to think you know betterâand maybe sometimes you doâbut more often, straying leads to underperformance.
The Hermes A.I. system is built on data-driven base wager risk levels, based on the score:
- 30â39: 1.00% of bankroll
- 40â49: 1.25%
- 50â59: 1.50%
- 60â69: 2.00%
- 70â79: 3.00%
- 80â89: 4.00%
- 90â100: 5.00%
You can find the full Hermes A.I. details anytime at TSP.Live/hermes.
The TSP Portfolio makes it even easierâeach play includes the risk level right there with it.
Of course, youâre free to bet however you like: wager more, less, not at all, or even fade the picks. But understandâdeviating from the TSP strategy means deviating from TSP’s performance. Itâs your call, but the system is built on stats, not emotion. Follow the framework if you want to stay aligned with the results.
đ The Harsh Reality: Most Bettors Arenât Profitable
People love to believe theyâre winning gamblers. But when they log every wager honestly, the truth usually surfacesâand itâs not pretty.
If you’re not tracking your action, you’re gambling blind.
đ What Sets Winners Apart
So when year-end rolls around and you see the celebration posts, but your bankroll doesnât reflect that joy…check these things:
- Did you follow the system consistently?
- Did you manage your bankroll like a pro?
- Did you avoid side bets that added risk and noise?
If not, thereâs still time to adjust. Letâs finish the year strongâtogether.
đ¤ Good luck to us!
The day after the above article was published, I followed it up with additional commentary. The commentary fit with the above and got very positive reviews, so I figured I would include it with this article as well. I hope you enjoy…
đ˘ The Grind is Real
Up on Monday, down on Tuesdayâwelcome to the grind, my degenerate friends!
This is the phase where professional bettors separate themselves from action junkies and perpetual losers. Itâs what I discussed yesterday in my article:
đ A TSP Year-End Mystery: Why Did I Lose?
đ When Itâs Good, Itâs Great
We all love those hot streaks like March and April, where everything seems to go right. And guess what? Weâll have more months like that before 2025 wraps up.
But the real question is:
How well do you manage yourself during the cold runs or sideways grinds while waiting for the next hot streak?
đ¸ If It Were Easy, Everyone Would Be Rich
Letâs face itâif gambling printed money daily, it would be boring (but hey, weâd live with it đ). Still, the ups and downs are part of the entertainment…and what make the hot runs so euphoric.
That said, I cannot stress this enoughâand it ties back to the article linked above:
The reason The Sharp Plays content has had 15 straight winning years since launching in 2011, and sportsbooks are still in business, is simple: even when given winning content, most gamblers still lose.
Why?
Because they lack the discipline to:
- Accept losing days, weeks and months
- Avoid pressing or chasing
- Stick with a consistent strategy
đ Cold Streak? Donât PanicâPause
If the content is cold, itâs OK to pass. Don’t chase. Donât switch strategies out of desperation.
Wait for the TSP Index to trend upward, then jump back in if youâre not comfortable riding the storm.
Yes, you may miss a few winners, but if you only bet during uptrends, and The Sharp Plays ends the year winningâyouâll be just fine too.
If youâre thinking, âWait, TSPâyou said to be consistent, and now youâre saying only bet during uptrends?ââyouâre absolutely right. That is a consistent strategy. It’s just a different one from what TSP Live will be doing.
Only betting when the TSP Index is in an uptrend is a disciplined, mathematical approach. Yes, your results may differ from the full-year TSP performance, but historically, this method will still have you finishing well in the green by yearâs end.
You can track the Index on the Hermes A.I. tableâitâs:
- Linked at the top of every alert on TSP Live
- Accessible at TheSharpPlays.com by clicking “Index” in the site menu
This approach wonât eliminate all losing streaks, but it does reduce their frequency. If you find yourself struggling with self-control or emotional betting swings, this strategy helps protect your bankroll from…you.
đ§ Master the Mental Game
Gambling can be simpleâif you get out of your own head. Stick to a strategy. Manage your bankroll. Stay disciplined.
How do I know?
Because thatâs what I do. My income doesnât come from The Sharp Playsâit comes from my own professional gambling, which you see reflected in the content.
đ Consistency is Key (Even in Losing Months)
Yes, there will be losing months ahead. And yes, as a subscriber, that means paying for a losing monthâand then coming right back to pay again next month.
Sound like sales talk? Maybe.
But itâs also the truth.
We donât know in advance which months will be hot or cold. What we do know is this:
15 straight years of healthy annual profit have rewarded those with patience, consistency, and proper bankroll discipline.
There will be times when you lose in January, lose in February, and then come right back in Marchâonly to see the content crush it. Itâs tempting to think, âWhy not just pay during the winning months?â
But letâs be real:
What would that even look like? Charging $0 for losing months and $500 for winning ones? In the end, it would average out to about the same as the current $179.99 per monthâjust dressed up to make some people feel better.Like the gambling itself, pricing and content delivery are consistent.
Unfortunately, not every subscriber is.There are people who didnât like the results in December or January, so they skipped February, March, and Aprilâand missed out on massive profits.
If youâre going to be a TSP Live subscriber, commit through the ups and downs. Or donât subscribe at all.
No hard feelingsâjust be consistent, whatever your choice.I truly appreciate everyone who supports this grind, and Iâll always do everything I can to help you succeed. But I also recognize that this path isnât for everyoneâand thatâs OK.
Just be honest with yourself. Know your limits.
Self-awareness is one of the most underrated tools in a gamblerâs arsenal.
đ˝ď¸ Final Bite of Food for Thought
This grind isnât for everyoneâbut if you can respect the process, control your impulses, and ride the waves with clarity and consistency, the rewards are there. Every year.
Letâs keep grinding,
The Sharp Plays