A TSP Year-End Mystery: “Why Did I Lose?”

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🧠 A Year-End Mystery: “Why Did I Lose?”

No matter how good the content does again for this year, I will undoubtedly hear from several people wondering how they managed to lose money during what will once again be a winning year for the TSP Portfolio and Hermes A.I.

They often say:

“I followed everything! How did I still lose?”

But the truth is, most didn’t actually follow everything—and that’s where the disconnect begins. Let’s break down the common traps.

🚨 Trap #1: Strategy Hopping

Many bettors can’t resist the temptation to chase the hot hand. When the TSP Portfolio or Hermes A.I. has a rough week, they abandon ship and jump to another handicapper who happens to be hot. But timing is cruel—you usually catch the cold streak of the new system right after abandoning the one about to turn hot.

❗ Important Reminder:
The Sharp Plays content has been public since 2011—15 years without a losing year!

Still, gamblers expect perfection:

  • No losing months
  • No losing weeks
  • Not even a bad day

That’s just not how professional gambling works. And those unrealistic expectations lead to bad decision-making.

💸 Trap #2: Bankroll Mismanagement

Even those who stick with the right service often fall into another pit: poor bankroll management.

Here’s the truth:

📊 Bankroll management matters more than your win percentage.

You can have a sub-52% win rate and still be profitable if you know when to press and when to scale back. Most gamblers do the opposite:

  • Press during cold runs
  • Tighten during hot streaks

The result? Losses pile up even when the core strategy wins overall.

🎯 Trap #3: Betting Detours

Another mistake is straying from the plan. For example:

  • You follow the TSP Portfolio…
  • But suddenly throw down on the Yankees because “there’s no way they lose”
  • Then toss in a UFC fighter bet for fun

You lose 3 units while TSP Live might have been up 3 units—you turned a winning day into a breakeven or losing one. Those “just this once” bets can snowball over time.

✅ Pro Tip:
Keep a separate bankroll for recreational or “hunch” bets, or limit them to small stakes—pizza money style. It scratches the itch without tanking your long-term profitability.

🤔 Trap #4: Overanalyzing – Trust the Data, Not Just Your Instincts

A common mistake among bettors using TSP content is deviating from the suggested strategy. It’s tempting to think you know better—and maybe sometimes you do—but more often, straying leads to underperformance.

The Hermes A.I. system is built on data-driven base wager risk levels, based on the score:

  • 30–39: 1.00% of bankroll
  • 40–49: 1.25%
  • 50–59: 1.50%
  • 60–69: 2.00%
  • 70–79: 3.00%
  • 80–89: 4.00%
  • 90–100: 5.00%

You can find the full Hermes A.I. details anytime at TSP.Live/hermes.

The TSP Portfolio makes it even easier—each play includes the risk level right there with it.

Of course, you’re free to bet however you like: wager more, less, not at all, or even fade the picks. But understand—deviating from the TSP strategy means deviating from TSP’s performance. It’s your call, but the system is built on stats, not emotion. Follow the framework if you want to stay aligned with the results.

📉 The Harsh Reality: Most Bettors Aren’t Profitable

People love to believe they’re winning gamblers. But when they log every wager honestly, the truth usually surfaces—and it’s not pretty.

If you’re not tracking your action, you’re gambling blind.

🎉 What Sets Winners Apart

So when year-end rolls around and you see the celebration posts, but your bankroll doesn’t reflect that joy…check these things:

  • Did you follow the system consistently?
  • Did you manage your bankroll like a pro?
  • Did you avoid side bets that added risk and noise?

If not, there’s still time to adjust. Let’s finish the year strong—together.

🤑 Good luck to us!

The day after the above article was published, I followed it up with additional commentary. The commentary fit with the above and got very positive reviews, so I figured I would include it with this article as well. I hope you enjoy…

🎢 The Grind is Real

Up on Monday, down on Tuesday—welcome to the grind, my degenerate friends!
This is the phase where professional bettors separate themselves from action junkies and perpetual losers. It’s what I discussed yesterday in my article:
👉 A TSP Year-End Mystery: Why Did I Lose?

🌟 When It’s Good, It’s Great

We all love those hot streaks like March and April, where everything seems to go right. And guess what? We’ll have more months like that before 2025 wraps up.

But the real question is:
How well do you manage yourself during the cold runs or sideways grinds while waiting for the next hot streak?

💸 If It Were Easy, Everyone Would Be Rich

Let’s face it—if gambling printed money daily, it would be boring (but hey, we’d live with it 😆). Still, the ups and downs are part of the entertainment…and what make the hot runs so euphoric.

That said, I cannot stress this enough—and it ties back to the article linked above:

The reason The Sharp Plays content has had 15 straight winning years since launching in 2011, and sportsbooks are still in business, is simple: even when given winning content, most gamblers still lose.

Why?
Because they lack the discipline to:

  • Accept losing days, weeks and months
  • Avoid pressing or chasing
  • Stick with a consistent strategy

📉 Cold Streak? Don’t Panic—Pause

If the content is cold, it’s OK to pass. Don’t chase. Don’t switch strategies out of desperation.

Wait for the TSP Index to trend upward, then jump back in if you’re not comfortable riding the storm.
Yes, you may miss a few winners, but if you only bet during uptrends, and The Sharp Plays ends the year winning—you’ll be just fine too.

If you’re thinking, “Wait, TSP—you said to be consistent, and now you’re saying only bet during uptrends?”—you’re absolutely right. That is a consistent strategy. It’s just a different one from what TSP Live will be doing.

Only betting when the TSP Index is in an uptrend is a disciplined, mathematical approach. Yes, your results may differ from the full-year TSP performance, but historically, this method will still have you finishing well in the green by year’s end.

You can track the Index on the Hermes A.I. table—it’s:

  • Linked at the top of every alert on TSP Live
  • Accessible at TheSharpPlays.com by clicking “Index” in the site menu

This approach won’t eliminate all losing streaks, but it does reduce their frequency. If you find yourself struggling with self-control or emotional betting swings, this strategy helps protect your bankroll from…you.

🧠 Master the Mental Game

Gambling can be simple—if you get out of your own head. Stick to a strategy. Manage your bankroll. Stay disciplined.

How do I know?
Because that’s what I do. My income doesn’t come from The Sharp Plays—it comes from my own professional gambling, which you see reflected in the content.

📆 Consistency is Key (Even in Losing Months)

Yes, there will be losing months ahead. And yes, as a subscriber, that means paying for a losing month—and then coming right back to pay again next month.

Sound like sales talk? Maybe.
But it’s also the truth.

We don’t know in advance which months will be hot or cold. What we do know is this:

15 straight years of healthy annual profit have rewarded those with patience, consistency, and proper bankroll discipline.

There will be times when you lose in January, lose in February, and then come right back in March—only to see the content crush it. It’s tempting to think, “Why not just pay during the winning months?”

But let’s be real:
What would that even look like? Charging $0 for losing months and $500 for winning ones? In the end, it would average out to about the same as the current $179.99 per month—just dressed up to make some people feel better.

Like the gambling itself, pricing and content delivery are consistent.
Unfortunately, not every subscriber is.

There are people who didn’t like the results in December or January, so they skipped February, March, and April—and missed out on massive profits.

If you’re going to be a TSP Live subscriber, commit through the ups and downs. Or don’t subscribe at all.
No hard feelings—just be consistent, whatever your choice.

I truly appreciate everyone who supports this grind, and I’ll always do everything I can to help you succeed. But I also recognize that this path isn’t for everyone—and that’s OK.

Just be honest with yourself. Know your limits.
Self-awareness is one of the most underrated tools in a gambler’s arsenal.

🍽️ Final Bite of Food for Thought

This grind isn’t for everyone—but if you can respect the process, control your impulses, and ride the waves with clarity and consistency, the rewards are there. Every year.

Let’s keep grinding,
The Sharp Plays