TSP Live Education: WSJ Study on Gambler’s Optimism (Hint…It’s WAY Out of Whack!)

Great Article:  https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/sports-betting-study-5d9a0044

Here are the highlights…

A new study by Stanford University researchers finds that the average online sportsbook customer expects a gain of 0.3 cent for every dollar wagered. In reality, sports bettors lose an average of 7.5 cents per dollar wagered, reflecting ‘widespread overoptimism about financial returns,’ according to Matthew Brown, a Stanford doctoral student and lead author of the study.

The findings: 10% of bettors were overly optimistic about their potential winnings by more than 20 cents per dollar wagered; 80% were also found to be overly optimistic, but not to the same degree as the most overoptimistic; and the remaining 9% of bettors underestimated their actual future returns.” 

We found that people more or less understood the amount of money they had lost in the past, but they just thought the future would be better,” Brown says.

Gambling is a mental game, and until you can manage your expectations and accept betting reality, you will always be pissed off and annoyed at gambling when it fails to deliver on your expectations.

Set reasonable LONG-TERM (i.e. 12 months) expectations and work to exceed them. Too many gamblers set high SHORT-TERM expectations (days, weeks, 2-4 months), fail to achieve them and press and chase to get there. These gamblers make me sad…because I wish I was their bookie!

Good luck!