Understanding Hermes Alerts
Whenever you see “(XXX)”, it means the parenthesis will contain specific key data for that angle when it occurs.
📌 Supporting Content (Indicators That Strengthen a Wager)
- Consistent Sharp Buy – Sharp money has been backing this wager throughout the day (or throughout the week for longer lead-in sports like football).
- Small, Medium, Large Sharp Buy – Sharp bettors have placed action on the wager, categorized by size (small, medium, or large).
- Group Buy (Small, Medium, Large – Logged) – A professional betting group has attacked this wager. Large Group Buys are logged and tracked at TheSharpPlays.com.
- Key Known Bettor Action – A Top 10 bettor (or multiple Top 10 bettors) for the sport being analyzed is betting above their usual size on this wager.
- Head Fake – Sharp money initially bets one side, then slams the other side later with large limits. These setups tend to be strong for the late wager.
- Late Sharp Money (Small, Medium, Large) – Sharp action hitting the wager within 30-60 minutes before the event. Late money is historically the best money.
- Analytics (XXX) – The wager is supported by analytic/algorithmic value (e.g., TSP algorithm projects it should be +5, but the market is +8).
- Small, Medium, or Large Public Buy – When the public is betting heavily on the opposite side, it suggests potential value on the listed wager.
📌 Contradicting Content (Factors That Work Against the Selection)
- Early Sharp Buy (XXX) – Sharp money initially backed the opposite side, meaning there has been a flip in sharp sentiment (not necessarily a head fake).
- Conflicted Market – Sharp money is present on both sides, signaling mixed sentiment within the market.
- Low Market Volume – The market being analyzed has low betting volume, meaning less data is available for analysis.
- Analytics (XXX) – While sharp money supports the wager, analytics may disagree (e.g., the algorithm suggests an edge elsewhere).
- Small, Medium, or Large Public Buy – When the public is heavily backing the Hermes selection, it signals potential concern about being on a public side.
- Large Line Movement From Open – The line has moved significantly since opening. While Hermes scores are based on the current line, chasing steam can be risky—it may be better suited for in-play betting.
📌 Sample Hermes Selection Report
💡 Below is an example of a Hermes Selection Alert, typically published on Telegram, Twitter/X, or in TSP Live.
📢 Hermes Selection Alert
✅ Wager: Tampa Bay -8 over Las Vegas
📊 Score: 78/100
💰 Portfolio Risk: 2.2% to win 2.0%
📈 Supporting Content:
- Group Buy (Large – Logged)
- Analytics (Tampa Bay priced -10 to -12.5)
- Key Known Bettor Action (Tampa -7.5 & -8)
- Wolf’s Group (Tampa -8)
⚠ Contradicting Content:
- Heavy public action (Tampa -8)
- Multiple Group Buys (Small & Medium) on Las Vegas
🌟 Wagering Environment Quality: High
📝 Notes: None
🔗 Hermes: https://tsp.live/hermes
📌 How to Read a Hermes Report
🔹 Wager: The selected wager based on Hermes analysis.
🔹 Score: The Hermes rating (0-100) for the wager.
🔹 Portfolio Risk: The suggested risk percentage for bankroll management.
🔹 Supporting Content: Key sharp action, group buys, analytics, and known bettor movements backing the wager.
🔹 Contradicting Content: Market factors working against the wager, including public action and sharp sentiment shifts.
🔹 Wagering Environment Quality:
- Low: Sharps underperforming, public succeeding
- Medium: Balanced market conditions (most common)
- High: Sharps printing money, regardless of public performance
📌 Final Notes: Hermes may include additional context in this section, but if Hermes is on auto-pilot, alerts are sent automatically without added notes.
Every Hermes alert ends with a direct link to this explanation page:
🔗 Hermes: https://tsp.live/hermes
🚀 Hermes Continues to Evolve
Whenever new supporting or contradicting factors are introduced, they will be added to this page.
📢 Stay updated via Telegram & Twitter/X for the latest developments!
Good luck!