🔄 Hot Runs, Cold Runs, and the Key to Winning

Posted on

The following appeared as the morning commentary for TSP Live on Tuesday, September 2nd, 2025. It goes well with yesterday’s Go Fast and Win podcast episode, so I am adding it to the Education section because it will be great to reference in the future.

For the 79,814th time… do you see how this game works?

Hot streak ➡️ cold streak ➡️ hot streak ➡️ cold streak.

It’s the eternal cycle of betting. If you could simply accept this pattern, then the next time a cold streak hits, instead of turning into an emotional mess and burning your bankroll, you’d know what to do: bet lighter, don’t panic, and let the cold stretch become a chance to rest and reset.

Because eventually… the hot run always comes back.

📈 How the Last Week Played Out

This past week was a textbook example of the cycle:

  • Wednesday: The turn day.
  • Thursday: A “speed bump” day (as forecasted).
  • Friday–Monday: Healthy profits as the hot run took off.

On Thursday morning, I even wrote:

“PLEASE BE AWARE, YESTERDAY WAS A RATHER STRONG DAY AND WE TEND TO SEE IMMEDIATE REGRESSION AFTER SUCH A DAY. IT DOESN’T MEAN THE COLD RUN RETURNS, BUT THERE IS OFTEN A ‘SPEED BUMP’ DAY WHEN WE CATCH A TURN. SO DON’T BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE TODAY. IF YESTERDAY WAS A TURN, THERE WILL BE TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVE IN THE DAYS AHEAD.”

And sure enough, the cycle unfolded exactly that way. Was it luck? Magic? Nope. It’s experience — seeing these patterns repeat thousands of times across three decades of sports betting.

🧠 The Lesson

Since last December’s cold run (which has long since been erased with profits stacked on top), I’ve been hammering home one point:

  • Every hot run eventually cools into a cold run.
  • Every cold run eventually turns into a hot run.

That’s it. That’s how this game works.

If you can control yourself through the inevitable downswings, you’ll always be around to enjoy the inevitable upswings. And when the board cools? Tighten up, pass here and there, and ride it out.

Because each cold run survived brings you one step closer to the next hot streak — and maybe even an epic run where you’re not just picking up +5 to +10 units… but +20 to +30 or more.

🎉 The Fun Part

How much fun was this past weekend? Absolutely a blast. But believe it or not, I wouldn’t even call it an “epic” one. Those happen multiple times every year, and they’re the ones you remember.

But to get to those weekends, you must first survive the cold stretches. That’s the price of admission.

💡 Final Word

This is the real secret:

  • If you can manage yourself, you’ll stick around for years and build wealth.
  • If you can’t manage yourself, your bankroll will be what the sportsbooks use to pay the clients who did manage themselves.

The choice is yours. Control, patience, discipline — that’s the key.

Now let’s keep it rolling and have a great season ahead! 🚀

🎙️ P.S.

I’ll have a new Go Fast and Win podcast episode dropping today (link will be on Telegram, Twitter, and all major podcast platforms). I’ll be covering these hot/cold cycle strategies in more detail and sharing some personal theories you can put to work.