Category: TSP Live Education

(Originally published as two TSP Live Insider articles on 5/12/23 and 6/12/23)

When it comes to sports betting, understanding what kind of market you’re in is half the battle. Are we in a heater? A slump? A grind?

To help you answer that question, I want to introduce—or reintroduce—you to one of my favorite tools:
The Sharp Plays Index (TSP-I).

You can check it daily via TheSharpPlays.com or from the Quick Links menu on the TSP Live Dashboard.

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🧭 Three Market Environments

Whether you’re analyzing a specific sport, a week of action, or a full month, everything falls into one of three categories:

1. ✅ Strong Winning
2. 📉 Deep Losing
3. ⚖️ Flat/Break-even (grinding up/down slightly)

And here’s the kicker: not all sports or leagues are in the same state at the same time. One sport could be surging while another is in the gutter—and the rest just spinning their wheels.

That’s why you need to assess the market both:

• Macro: month/quarter by league/sport
• Micro: week/multi-week by league/sport

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🔎 What Is the TSP Index?

The TSP Index tracks performance across the entire betting market, separating out the behavior of:

• Sharp-rated bettors
• Public-rated bettors

It’s calculated by sport and across all sports combined, and it gives you a snapshot of who’s hot—and who’s not.

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📈 How to Read the TSP-I Numbers

• TSP-I Range ~0.8 to 1.1 → Market is favoring the public
• TSP-I Range ~2.9 to 3.5 → Market is favoring sharps

If the index for a sport is high (say 3.3 for soccer), that means sharps have been crushing it—but you should also be alert for a possible regression.
Conversely, if a sport is ice cold (like NBA at 0.5), it could be due for a sharp rebound or public cooldown.

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🔄 Momentum: TSP-I vs. the 5-Day Moving Average

This is where things get more powerful…

• When the TSP-I line is above its 5-day SMA, it signals that sharp money has momentum
• When TSP-I dips below the 5-day SMA, it signals the public is gaining steam

Think of the crossover as a technical indicator, much like you’d use in stock trading.

💡 When sharps are in control, I bet normally.
When the public takes the lead, I go passive and cautious.

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🔁 How to Use It In Practice

Let’s say:

• Soccer is at 3.3 → It’s hot. Still bet, but watch for signs of cooling.
• NBA is at 0.5 and climbing → Could signal a shift toward sharp value.

If the overall TSP-I line is trending upward, and especially if it’s above the moving average, the sharps are driving the market. That’s when I stay aggressive.

But when TSP-I dips below the SMA, it’s a canary in the coal mine. That’s my cue to tighten up and maybe even scale back.

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🧠 Understanding the Betting Cycle

Let’s make this clear:

• Sharps don’t always win. They go on cold streaks. But their progression runs (winning stretches) are usually longer and more profitable than their regression runs.
• The public doesn’t always lose. They get hot too. But their regression runs (cold streaks) tend to be deeper, especially because they chase losses and press bets—something sharps avoid.

🎯 The key is identifying who’s in control—and riding the wave.

That’s what the TSP Index helps you do.

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🛠️ No, It’s Not a Crystal Ball

The TSP-I is not a predictive tool, and it’s certainly not the Holy Grail.
But like any good technical indicator, it gives you informed perspective on:

• Market temperature
• Sharp/public momentum
• Potential turning points

And best of all?
It’s free. No ads. No gimmicks. Just useful intel.

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✅ Final Thoughts

If you’ve ever found yourself unsure of whether to press or pause your betting… the TSP Index is your answer.

• It takes two seconds to check.
• It’s updated daily.
• It’s a favorite tool of serious bettors who want an edge.

Bookmark it. Use it. Don’t ignore it.

Wishing you clarity, confidence, and good luck in your action! 🚀

(Originally appeared in TSP Live Insider – June 27th)

I hear it all the time…

“Sharps don’t bet lines that high.”
“Sharps would never touch a -300 favorite.”

Let me be crystal clear:
Both of those statements are completely false.

There is no such thing as a line that’s “too high” for sharp bettors—as long as there’s value.

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🔍 Case in Point: Canada in the Gold Cup

Let’s look at early sharp buying in the CONCACAF Gold Cup:

• Canada opened at -500
• Sharps pushed the line up to -800

Now, imagine I reported this as a standard sharp buy outside the context of this article. I guarantee I’d get emails:

“No way sharp money bets -500!”

But I have to ask… why not?!

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🧠 It’s All About Value, Not the Number

The usual pushback sounds like this:

“Sharps can’t win long-term betting -500 juice.”

That kind of thinking shows the person simply doesn’t understand value betting.

Here’s the math that matters:

• Let’s say -800 is fair value (an 88.89% implied probability)
• The book is offering -500 (an 83.33% implied probability)
• That’s a 5.56% edge in your favor

If that edge is real, and your valuation is sound, then…

🎯 It is mathematically impossible to lose long-term
betting -500 when the true price should be -800

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💼 How Can You Trust the Sharp’s Valuation?

Fair question.

If the book itself rates the bettor as sharp, it means that bettor has a proven track record of identifying value. So yes—there’s a very real chance their pricing is correct.

Remember: sharps don’t care about narratives or round numbers. They care about edges—whether it’s +110 or -500.

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🥊 Remember Mayweather vs. McGregor?

This is one of the most famous examples:

• The public went wild for McGregor. The line stayed around Mayweather -500 to -550
• Meanwhile, informed bettors were pricing Mayweather between -1500 and -2500

That made -500 a screaming value. And yes, sharps hammered it.

Sure, when you lose a -500 wager, it stings. But if you’re consistently betting -500 prices that should be -2500, then…

The occasional loss is just giving back a sliver of your profits.

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💡 Final Takeaway

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking there’s a “line too high” for sharp money.

If it’s a value, sharps will bet it. Period.

Whether it’s -110 or -800, sharp bettors are playing the long game of ROI, not clinging to outdated myths.

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Wishing you sharp eyes, steady hands, and good luck in your action! ⚡

Every football season brings in a wave of new faces to the TSP Live community. One of the most common questions I get:
“What’s the best way to follow all the content?”

The reality? There’s no one-size-fits-all answer—but there is a strategy many veteran users swear by. It’s simple, selective, and has produced solid returns over the years—even dating back to when The Sharp Plays first hit Twitter in 2011.

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✅ It’s Not Just the KB Consensus

While blind following the KB Consensus is a proven option with three years of strong performance behind it, that’s not the strategy I’m talking about here. Anyone can figure out how to follow KB.

What many overlook is this:
Using the individual selections from my parlays or rollovers as straight bets.

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🎯 Parlay Legs as Straight Bets

Here’s the play:
When I post a three-leg parlay, some TSP Live subscribers:

• Bet the full parlay
• Bet a round robin with the same legs
• And also bet each leg individually as straight wagers

Obviously, if you’re staking 1 unit on each of these, it can quickly add up. So adjust based on your comfort level and bankroll. The key takeaway is this:

🧩 Parlay legs are often my top-rated plays for the day. I’m not randomly throwing them together. I’m building these exotics using what I believe are the sharpest angles available at the time.

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🔍 Why It Works

If I’m trying to hit a parlay or keep a rollover alive, you better believe I’m putting my best content forward.

Take this past weekend:

• Saturday: Parlay went 0-2-1
• Sunday: Parlay lost, but legs went 2-1
• Weekend Overall: 2-3-1 on parlay legs

No, it wasn’t perfect—but it was a much more manageable filter. Instead of sifting through 40+ angles from TSP Live, this strategy narrowed it down to just six.

And when things click? You cash the straight bets and hit the parlay for a double bonus. 💰

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🔥 Pay Attention to Wager Size

Not all parlays are created equal. Here’s how to tell the difference:

• Candy Money Parlay: I’m taking a shot. It’s fun money, not high confidence.
• Rollover Play (0.3–1+ units): This is serious business. These selections carry weight.

Reading between the lines on how much I’m wagering gives you insight into my confidence level on those legs.

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🧠 Don’t Blind Follow—Think Then Wager

My mission with TSP Live is to get people to think first, then wager.
Blindly paying and tailing handicappers is a losing game. You don’t learn, and worse—you usually lose.

If that kind of blind-following actually worked, you’d be reading someone else’s content today.

That said, I know some people just want picks and don’t have time to handicap. For those folks, my parlays and rollovers—public and subscriber—can serve as a smart shortcut to action.

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🏁 Final Word

Following the legs of my parlays as straight bets is a time-tested strategy.
It filters the flood of content into something manageable and gives you consistent, high-quality angles.
And when the parlay hits? 🍾 That’s just the cherry on top.

Good luck today—and may your action treat you well! 🙌

Parlay strategy could honestly fill a full thesis—but who wants to read 80 pages of math and stats? 😴 So let’s cut through the clutter and hit the high points.

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🚫 Why Most Sharps Avoid Parlays

You won’t hear many sharp bettors talk about parlays. Why? Because they’re often seen as “sucker bets.”

And to be fair—that’s true… if you’re losing more than 52.38% of your spread bets. Parlays amplify losses fast.

But…

If you’re consistently hitting above 52.38%, parlays become a profitable weapon against the book.

👉 Want a deeper dive? Read: Parlays Aren’t Just for Suckers Anymore

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🎯 My Approach: 1 Unit Strategic Parlays

When I talk parlays, I’m NOT referring to “pizza money” longshots. I’m talking about serious, 1 unit strategic parlays.

🔍 How I Build Them:

• I identify the top 2–5 angles I like most.
• I don’t use advanced modeling here—just a curated selection of what I trust most.
• If those angles are truly strong, combining them leverages your long-term edge.

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🔄 Round Robin Parlays: A Hidden Gem

Do I use Round Robins? Absolutely.

If you’re not familiar, Google it. But here’s the short version:

A Round Robin breaks up a large parlay into smaller combos.
Example: A 4-leg parlay becomes four 3-leg parlays.

✅ Why it matters:

Sometimes one leg ruins the party. But a Round Robin might still cash multiple combos and turn a losing parlay into a net gain.

📌 Example:

• 1 unit 4-leg parlay ➝ Use 0.25–0.40 units per 3-leg Round Robin.
• Total risk: ~1 to 1.5 units max.

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♻️ Re-Betting After a Missed Leg

What if the first leg goes down? Should you re-bet the others?

It depends. There’s no hard rule, but I’m often open to it.

For example, Saturday, South Alabama tanked early. I dropped them and re-parlayed the remaining legs for 1 unit.
It won. But yes—this adds risk. You could just as easily lose again.

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🔑 Keying a Selection

Sometimes, I’ll “key” a game—build multiple bets around one strong play.

Example:
I liked Buffalo Bills -2.5, so I had them in:

• A 1 unit straight bet (My Handicapping Game)
• A 1 unit TSP Live parlay
• A 1 unit replay parlay (after South Alabama tanked)
• A Twitter Rollover on Bills -150

That’s 3.2 units risked on one team.
I was comfortable with that—but would you be okay losing all 3.2 units if they lost?

If not, parlay betting might not be your thing.

⚠️ Professional gamblers can and do have -4, -5, even -7 unit days.
Thinking that shouldn’t happen just shows you don’t understand how gambling really works.

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🧘 Patience Is Everything

Parlays require TREMENDOUS PATIENCE.

There are days I lose 2–3 units on parlays alone. Some folks panic over 2-unit weekly losses—they shouldn’t touch this strategy.

💡 Key Truth:

Parlays will lose a lot.
That’s the nature of the beast.

I’ve been down -15 units on parlays…
Then hit a 20-1 longshot and a 6-1 in the same stretch. Boom—+11 units total.

Everyone loves the +26 unit day…
Few can stomach the -15 unit run that came before it.

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🎁 Parlay Boosts: Don’t Ignore Them

With legal books popping up nationwide, you’ll see more parlay boosts offered.

✅ Which boosts are worth it?

• NOT the premade parlays the book promotes. Those are garbage.
• YES to custom boosts: you build your own parlay, and the book adds 10–30% to the payout.

Even if the limits are low (like $50–$100), a sharp parlay bettor should absolutely capitalize on these.

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🏁 Final Thoughts

Parlays aren’t for everyone. They take:

• Strategy
• Patience
• Emotional control
• An understanding of variance

But for those who can weather the grind, they can be one of the sharpest tools in your betting arsenal.

Good luck, and may your next parlay smash expectations! 💥