Sunday DCR
**REMEMBER, ANY CATEGORY NOT LISTED THAT YOU MAY HAVE SEEN ON A PREVIOUS DEGENERATE CLUB REPORT JUST MEANS THERE WAS NOTHING TO REPORT TODAY.**
Let’s dive in…
Most Interesting Action: I would go with BRADLEY -3.5 over Drake as the most interesting action because the algorithm shows this line should be Bradley -8. Some sharp money hit Bradley, but just small at -3 and tiny at -3.5. So, there’s that as well. However, it is shocking to see the algorithm have 4.5 points of value on such a small spread of 3.5. So, that really caught my eye today.
RATING: 1.00 units on BRADLEY -3.5 (sharp buy supported by heavy algorithm value)
Oddsmaker’s Report/Book’s Group Chat: There was a very large Group Buy that hit ILLINOIS/OHIO ST UN145 down to 143.5. The most stopped at 143.5. So, I can’t release a unit rated wager at the current 143 or 142.5, but this is obviously important information to note for assessment of the game and the possibility of in-play. Target would be UN150.5 based on the best price that sharp money targeted. The wager at 143 did however make the DCR Selections given it checks the boxes at this time for coverage there.
Heavy Public Action: Public is hammering UCLA and ST. BONAVENTURE along with UCF/TULSA OVER in NCAAB. In NBA is it GOLDEN STATE seeing heavy public action and in the NHL it is the NY RANGERS and NASHVILLE/ARIZONA OVER.
Book Needs: COLORADO is projected to be a Low Level Book Need and of course an outright win would be awesome for the book given the spread and how such a result would also clear the teaser money out there.
Known Bettor Action: BELMONT -3 and BELMONT/N IOWA UN147 both seeing material sharp buying at current prices, but the majority of sharp buying was at better prices, so no unit rating at this time.
In-Play Strategies: BELMONT PK (-160), BELMONT/N IOWA UN154.5, BRADLEY +2.5 and ILLINOIS/OHIO ST UN150.5 as calculated by Hermes using pregame data.
DCR Selections (151-118 NCAAB / 22-18 NBA / 2-2 NHL / 1-0 NFL):
Illinois/Ohio St UN143 +$
Belmont -4 +
Belmont/N Iowa UN147 +#
Manhattan +8.5 +
Manhattan/Quinnipiac UN141.5 #
Bradley -3.5 +
DCR subset key can be found at https://tsp.live/dcr-subsets/ or see the bottom of this alert.
Cutting Room Floor (42-45 NCAAB / 2-4 NBA / 3-1 NHL / 0-0 NFL):
Fairfield/Canisius OV136 -$
Iona -10 –
Tulsa +13
Washington/Stanford OV140.5
Rutgers/Penn St OV132.5 –
NBA…
Washington/Chicago OV224 ++#BA*
**Tracking selections and subsets in red for data assessment purposes only. These are not designed as fades nor follows.**
Soccer: Tiny buy on ATALANTA/AC MILAN UN2.5 (-120) in Italy’s Serie A.
Commentary: Lines moved very quickly today. Once the group hit Illinois/Ohio St UNDER the books reacted aggressively and dropped to 143 and stopped the move. So, it’s tough to bet at that price. Same goes for Belmont which moved to -4 but the bulk of the sharp buying was -2 and -3. Plenty of opportunity for late action to pop up as the day goes along. For now, just 1 unit on Bradley -3.5 and the degenerate parlay below.
**If anything exciting occurs after this report, subsequent TSP Live alerts, including the possibility of additional Degenerate Club alerts will be issued to update you.**
DEGENERATES ONLY!
Current Rollover Bankroll: +0.00
I banked the profits from yesterday. I like to have a decent cushion below. So, I am going to open a new parlay today. If this parlay hits, it will then be rollover forward. So, let’s get this one and have some fun this week!
I am going with a 0.10 unit parlay of Bradley -3.5, Belmont -4 and tying them with Illinois/Ohio St UN143.5. The resulting parlay will payoff at +595 and thereby return a profit of +0.60 units!
I would not touch Illinois UNDER 143 for 1 unit because it’s a bad price at 143…but I will play it for the degenerate parlay here because if sharp money wins on their 143.5 (the worst price they took) then the worst case is I push with 143. Let’s get it!
Records
Degenerate Club: +2.70 units
Good luck!
DCR Subsets…
“-” means there is one of several variables that showed negative performance within the DCR selections. What are the variables, it’s a little complicated, so just know that “-” means negative. I will expand on it in the future, but just want to create a quick key here.
“*” means there is conflicting sharp action, but the conflicting action is at very low levels.
“+” means there is consistent sharp money buying the side of the wager. So, it is one thing for their to be sharp money on a wager. The “+” denotes that the sharp action is not just there, but continues to come in.
“++” means there is consistent MEDIUM to LARGE sharp money on the side of the wager.
“$” means there is elevated sharp money on the side of the wager AND elevated public money on the other side of the wager. So, the “$” means we basically a pro’s v joe’s of varying degrees (could be tiny, could be large). If it is medium or large, then I would cover it in the “Pro’s v Joe’s” section of the Degenerate Club Report.
“#” means there are one of several variables that have shown to provide positive performance…basically the opposite of the “-” symbol.
“R” means sharp money bet small early on the opposite side of the wager and then bet larger on the wager listed as limits increased…denoting a possible head fake.
“BA” means key known bettors within the book and for the sport being analyzed are on the opposite side. The majority of sharp money is still on the side of the wager listed, but this conflicting action raises concern and is noted.
Saturday DCR
**REMEMBER, ANY CATEGORY NOT LISTED THAT YOU MAY HAVE SEEN ON A PREVIOUS DEGENERATE CLUB REPORT JUST MEANS THERE WAS NOTHING TO REPORT TODAY.**
Let’s dive in…
Most Interesting Action: GONZAGA -5.5 is the most interesting to me today because rarely do I see material sharp buying on Gonzaga. Usually he public hammers them and the sharps stay away. Today the public is mixed on this game and so far sharp money is solidly on Gonzaga. It’s early so volume isn’t quite at the level to warrant a 1 unit rating, but just a heads up to what is out there and what I am watching.
Oddsmaker’s Report/Book’s Group Chat: For the XFL fans, there was discussion of sharp money buying the VEGAS VIPERS today at -3, but it wasn’t major action. It was however the only sharp money at play at XFL today.
Heavy Public Action: KANSAS, TENNESSEE and KENTUCKY in NCAAB. DC/VEGAS OVER in XFL action (yes, XFL will start to pop in these reports in the various sections, including sharp buying, as I can build data on bettors and market action). In NBA, NY KNICKS are seeing heavy public action and EDMONTON and BOSTON in the NHL.
Public Dogs: ST JOHN’S qualifies as a public dog, making CONNECTICUT the public dog fade today. Nothing else close.
Book Needs: Despite decent public action out there, which is one sided, there isn’t heavy volume. The Book Needs analytic does not project any wagers to be Book Needs at this time. If it changes, I can report.
Pro’s v Joe’s: Very low level on South Carolina (tiny pro buy) and Tennessee (heavy public buy). I am just noting it here in case it expands as the day goes along and becomes one. Also, NY KNICKS and NEW ORLEANS (Pro’s) is close to being one. Beyond those setups, nothing else out there.
Known Bettor Action: Small buying on SAMFORD +1 (LOL…they love that Samford team), DARTMOUTH +10 and NEW ORLEANS +3 in the NBA.
In-Play Strategies: Hermes is offline today for the final batch of updates. Please refer to the In-Play Pricing table for any targets… https://tsp.live/tsp-live-in-play-strategy-targets/
Details on the future of the Hermes coverage will be coming in tomorrow’s TSP Live Insider where I break down the updates.
DCR Selections (147-113 NCAAB / 22-18 NBA / 2-2 NHL / 1-0 NFL):
Utah Tech +1 + (3pm)
UT Martin +5 + (3pm)
UNC Greensboro/ETSU UN133.5 $ (4pm)
S Indiana +4 +# (4:30pm)
SIU Edwardsville -4 +# (4:30pm)
S Utah/Sam Houston St OV139.5 + (5:30pm)
Northridge/LBSU OV148 R (7pm)
UC Irvine/Hawaii OV133 $ (10pm)
St. Mary’s/Gonzaga UN141.5 +$ (10pm)
DCR subset key can be found at https://tsp.live/dcr-subsets/ or see the bottom of this alert.
Cutting Room Floor (42-45 NCAAB / 2-4 NBA / 3-1 NHL / 0-0 NFL):
NONE…red selections system being updated for automation today.
**Tracking selections and subsets in red for data assessment purposes only. These are not designed as fades nor follows.**
Soccer: Only thing going is Liverpool/Crystal Palace UN2.5 (-105) is seeing a small buy. Volume is big today in soccer, which when I saw I thought it would lead to a lot of good wagers, but sharp money not grabbing any value or any public shade today. So, if they aren’t you should be careful betting soccer too.
Commentary: Getting this out early to protect against line moves.
I expect to have another DCR/Memo update around 3-4pm ET. It’ll allow the action to build and then limits to have moved up for the late games. We will see what takes shape. If anything major comes up in the mean time, I can issue a TSP Live Memo or Oddsmaker’s Report to let you know.
No 1 unit action yet, but I definitely expect one or two wagers today once some more volume and action comes in to shake things out. Right now some stuff close to the line, but nothing over it yet.
**If anything exciting occurs after this report, subsequent TSP Live alerts, including the possibility of additional Degenerate Club alerts will be issued to update you.**
DEGENERATES ONLY!
Current Rollover Bankroll: +0.00
I am going with a 0.10 unit parlay of S Indiana +4, SIU Edwardsville -4 and tie them with Gonzaga -5. The resulting parlay will payoff at +595 and thereby return a profit of +0.60 units!
I might have additional parlays/rollovers today, just FYI.
Records
Degenerate Club: +2.10 units
Good luck!
DCR Subsets…
“-” means there is one of several variables that showed negative performance within the DCR selections. What are the variables, it’s a little complicated, so just know that “-” means negative. I will expand on it in the future, but just want to create a quick key here.
“*” means there is conflicting sharp action, but the conflicting action is at very low levels.
“+” means there is consistent sharp money buying the side of the wager. So, it is one thing for their to be sharp money on a wager. The “+” denotes that the sharp action is not just there, but continues to come in.
“++” means there is consistent MEDIUM to LARGE sharp money on the side of the wager.
“$” means there is elevated sharp money on the side of the wager AND elevated public money on the other side of the wager. So, the “$” means we basically a pro’s v joe’s of varying degrees (could be tiny, could be large). If it is medium or large, then I would cover it in the “Pro’s v Joe’s” section of the Degenerate Club Report.
“#” means there are one of several variables that have shown to provide positive performance…basically the opposite of the “-” symbol.
“R” means sharp money bet small early on the opposite side of the wager and then bet larger on the wager listed as limits increased…denoting a possible head fake.
“BA” means key known bettors within the book and for the sport being analyzed are on the opposite side. The majority of sharp money is still on the side of the wager listed, but this conflicting action raises concern and is noted.