Hermes is an A.I. software program designed to analyze the betting markets and betting content…both inside and outside The Sharp Plays…from a wide variety of viewpoints. The A.I. analysis is then delivered autonomously by the Hermes bot or from queries run by The Sharp Plays. The resulting content is then delivered through Telegram, Twitter/X and/or exclusively to subscribers of TSP Live.
The Hermes A.I. software project has been years in the making! Hermes v1.0 was created in 2021 and tested November 2021 through February 2022 within TSP Live subscriber content. After testing successfully, Hermes v2.0 launched in February of 2022 and then Hermes was upgraded to v3.0 in November 2022. Hermes public operations were paused in January 2023 with the goal of taking all the data generated during live testing and launching an even more advanced form of the program. During it’s run from creation & testing in 2021, through January of 2023, Hermes achieved a profit of +11.80% or 11.80 units with wager limits of 0.10% to 5.0%. Hermes return on risk was 6.2%…which is exceptional when most professional sports bettors strive for 5.0% return on risk!
After almost two years of research, analysis, and a lot of programming outsourcing, Hermes was relaunched as Hermes v1.0 in December 2024 with the goal of not just providing selections but being a complete wager analysis tool and professional betting assistant.
Hermes has access to multiple statistical databases from enterprise and retail data providers, the wagering databases and analytics tools at TWO offshore sportsbooks, the arsenal of The Sharp Play’s algorithms (over 300 active) & analytics (like KB Consensus, Book Needs, TSP Live Radar & more), a consensus report with over 500 services, injury reports and newswires, plus the entire power and wealth of information throughout the Internet.
As the year goes along, Hermes is expected to replace the Book Needs, TSP Live Radar, and KB Consensus tables in TSP Live. Instead of needing these tables, Hermes will be able to provide the same content with higher efficiency and better performance. A Hermes table is in the works and expected to launch in early 2025 to cover ALL SPORTS! If you are worried about missing TSP Live Radar or KB Consensus…the angles aren’t going anywhere…they will be made better with Hermes! Hermes will also replace TSP Live Algorithm Selections like those delivered each season using the MLB & NCAAB Algorithms, public algorithms like the 1st Quarter NFL Algorithm, among others. Just like the tables, Hermes will report these angles, but be able to optimize them and increase their performance. The goal is not to get rid of any profitable content, it is to make that content better!
Frequently Asked Questions –
What about non-public features?
Similar to ChatGPT, Hermes can respond to any queries I put forward. For example, I can ask Hermes to create a three leg parlay for me. Hermes will analyze all the data and select the top 3 wagers it sees on the board so I can put together a parlay. I can ask Hermes to create a two leg 6 point teaser for me. Hermes will not just analyze the top available bets, but Hermes has the ability to look at how these sides & totals perform in 6 point teasers. I can ask Hermes any question when it comes to wagering, including how much a wager is worth in terms of bankroll risk. Hermes is truly the ultimate gambling tool. The possibilities for Hermes analysis are limited only to one’s imagination.
When will subscribers be able to have direct access to Hermes?
The ultimate goal is offering direct access to Hermes in a ChatGPT style format. However, there are a lot of hurdles to overcome for security and processing to allow a large audience to play with this new sports betting weapon. The biggest issue is that processing capacity for a large audience carries substantial cost and maintenance. Navigating these hurdles can be complex, but it is a goal of the project to make it accessible to subscribers. In the mean time, The Sharp Plays can run any queries privately and post their outputs publicly or to subscribers. Giving subscribers the option to submit queries which The Sharp Plays then runs and publishes is the likely first step to test this process.
Why does Hermes only a handful of selections, sometimes one or none, on days with dozens and dozens of games on the board with 1000’s of wagering options?
Hermes uses a “confidence variable” which is Hermes calculation as to the chances of the wager dropping in score. If the confidence variable is low or medium, meaning there is a high or moderate chance the score will drop below the key mark of “30”, then I will not release the selection. I don’t want Hermes reporting a selection that is low or medium, people bet it and by game time I have to report that the play on Notre Dame +18, which was a 51 when I reported it at 1pm (but had a low or medium confidence variable) is now a 26 at 7pm and right before game. Now bettors are locked into a bet that technically is no longer a wager. Yes, in a typical day if I ask Hermes for all wagers scoring 30 or higher then Hermes will easily give me 50-200+ wagers, but those with high confidence variables often only number 1-10 or 15 on any given day. Most days it is 2-3.
One of the big questions, given The Sharp Plays goals of transparency, is “what content from Hermes will be logged?”
The answer is that logging every query and its outcome would be impossible due to the volume of content delivered. However, the easiest content to track, and perhaps what would be of most interest to bettors will be any selections/alerts Hermes puts out that carry a score. The selection, its result, the score the selection achieved and whether the score increased or decreased by the event start would be logged. It should provide gamblers with plenty of information to assess performance. I expect to have this log on TheSharpPlays.com once the football season concludes and the annual February website and system updates get underway. Thereby the log is ready to go for March Madness…at least this is the present goal.
Hermes has different types of reports that it currently delivers, but these are expected to expand as time goes along. When there is an expanded or new report type available, then I will break it down in the section below. Here are some of the current alerts/content that Hermes delivers…
Hermes Selections: Hermes takes all the information at its disposal…sharp action measurements, algorithms, statistical analysis, group activity, known bettor metrics, line movement, past performance, trends, public action and a lot more to “score” potential wagers. The Hermes scores range from 0-100. Data supports the idea that anything with a score below 29 is a coin toss at best. Scores of 30 and above show a positive ROI and are worthy of consideration/further assessment. The higher the score, the higher the performance.
Hermes scores operate similar to the TSP Live Radar in that they can increase or decrease as the day goes along, prices move, action changes, etc. There is no data that shows a declining value is a fade, but it could be something to avoid or to be cautious on. Declining scores are profitable, but they do show a marked performance difference from those whose scores remain the same or increase.
Sharp Report: This is simple…if Hermes detects an above average amount of sharp action on one side of a market, an alert is triggered to let you know. Large and some medium buys are usually reserved for TSP Live, small buys are reported directly to Telegram and Twitter/X. Buys are required to clear certain filters beyond just the size of the buy to trigger an alert. The goal of the filters is minimizing the noise. Without the filters there would be dozens of alerts during the day.
Known Bettor: When a bettor who ranks in the Top 100 (as viewed within the offshore sportsbook being monitored by Hermes) in a particular sport, and takes limit or above average action, Hermes can be set to flag the action for this bettor and alert TSP Live subscribers or TSP followers…in case you would like to follow along. For example, if a bettor ranked #6 at one offshore sportsbook in NFL places a limit wager, Hermes can be programmed to send that wager as an alert within 20 seconds of it being placed!
Consensus Report: There are thousands of sports handicappers and sports services online…both free and paid…and the overwhelming majority are losers. One sportsbook has a bot scrape the selections of over 500 services and handicappers from around the world. to create a heat map and get a feel for potential incoming action. When these services are all on one side then usually that wager is something you want to avoid or perhaps fade. Hermes will measure the level of handicapper/service interest in a bet on a scale of 1 to 10….with 10 basically saying that an overwhelming number of services out of the 500+ on the consensus report are on a certain wager, with almost no services on the other side. These “locks” that the services key in on tend to be good long-term fades. Hermes triggers on wagers that achieve a 7 or higher on the 1-10 scale discussed above. Hermes will also let you know in these alerts if there is any sharp money in the market. No message about sharp money means no material sharp money pointing to one side or the other in the market. When services are heavy on one side, and sharps on the other, this type of Pro’s v Joe’s setup has shown to be profitable over the long-term.
Public Alert: Simple, when one side of a market is seeing heavy public money hitting it, Hermes can be programmed to alert you of these instances so you can STAY FAR AWAY! It can be also programmed to alert you to other potential public fade setups like public dogs, public UNDERs, Pro’s v Joe’s and more!
Market Breakdown: These are detailed reports which Hermes can issue that lay out public betting breakdowns, sharp betting breakdowns and the optimal outcome for the book on a specific betting market all in one alert. The combined “Market Breakdown” alert allows you to be fully informed on the action from every angle for a game or event. These types of reports were made famous at The Sharp Plays due to their success in the 2022 World Cup!
It’s going to be a fun 2025 with this new toy…and the current iteration of Hermes is active for only about 30% of its current capabilities and tools! There are more features yet to come! Keep an eye on Twitter and Telegram for the latest news and updates.
Below is a sample of a Hermes Report which would typically be published on Telegram / Twitter/X or in TSP Live…
Sample Hermes Report…and how to read it…
Wager: Tampa Bay -8 over Las Vegas
Score: 78/100 is the score the above wager achieves based on Hermes analysis.
Portfolio Risk (Standard): 2.2% to win 2.0%
Supporting Content: Large Group Buy, Algorithms calculate Tampa Bay -10 to -12.5, Top 10 offshore bettor taking limit action on Tampa Bay -7.5 and -8, Wolf group move logged on Tampa Bay -8.
Contradicting Content: Heavy public action on Tampa Bay -8, multiple small and medium Group Buys on Las Vegas
Wagering Environment Quality: High
Notes: None
Hermes: https://tsp.live/hermespro/
Here’s how to read the above Hermes Report…
Wager: Tampa Bay -8 over Las Vegas is what Hermes is selecting based on its analysis.
Score: 78/100 is the score Tampa Bay -8 achieves based on Hermes analysis.
Portfolio Risk (Standard/Expanded): The wager is for the “Standard” Portfolio and the risk is 2.2% on Tampa Bay -8 to win 2.0%
Supporting Content: This section tells you what angles support the selection. For example, Tampa Bay -8 is supported by a Large Group Buy, TSP Algorithms calculate Tampa Bay -10 to -12.5, a Top 10 offshore bettor took limit action on Tampa Bay -7.5 and -8, and Wolf’s (TSPInsiders.com) group move logged on Tampa Bay -8.
Contradicting Content: This section tells you of the angles work against the selection. In this case, there i heavy public action on Tampa Bay -8 and multiple small and medium Group Buys on Las Vegas. So, if you take Tampa you would be on the public side and against multiple groups that took small and medium action to Las Vegas. However, despite these contradicting factors, Hermes still see Tampa Bay -8 as a quality selection in its calculation and these contradicting factors are taken into account for Hermes score.
Wagering Environment Quality: The options for this section are Low, Medium, or High. A low quality environment is one where the sharps are operating below average and the public is operating above average. A high quality environment is one where sharps are printing money…regardless of public success. A medium quality environment is in the middle. Most periods during the year provide medium quality environments…sharps grind wins, the public grinds losses, but nobody is overly hot or cold.
Notes: Simple…I can add notes to Hermes alerts if I am around to let you know of things I notice or provide additional context or information for your review.
Then every Hermes alert ends with the link below…which takes you to this page.
Hermes: https://tsp.live/hermespro/
Thanks for taking the time to give this a read! I hope you enjoy the new content!
Good luck!