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The TSP Portfolio, which launched on January 1st, 2023, develops wagers using the variety of content delivered throughout ALL of The Sharp Plays and its various free & paid platforms (Twitter/X, Telegram, TheSharpPlays.com, GoFastAndWin.com, TSP.Live & TSP Insiders).
Roughly 90% of TSP Portfolio wagering comes from the TSP Live Portfolio action which is part of the paid TSP Live subscription. The other 10% of TSP Portfolio wagering comes from TSP Insiders (paid & free releases) or is posted publicly for free (i.e. Twitter/X, Telegram, etc.). Action not released for the TSP Portfolio within TSP Live is graded under the “Expanded” Portfolio tracking.
The goal of the TSP Portfolio is to use a low volume method of wagering, with aggression or passivity based on the current betting environment (as dictated by the TSP Index). Wagers typically range from 0.5% to 5% of bankroll.
The goal of the TSP Portfolio is to educate novice bettors on how you can have action every day to feed your degenerate juices using strategies and techniques to maximize value and return…ultimately resulting in very healthy risk and bankroll ROI’s (return on investment). The TSP Portfolio IS NOT how I bet all the content delivered through The Sharp Plays various platforms. While I do follow the TSP Portfolio myself, I will engage in additional action and risk based on my personal risk tolerance.
The TSP Portfolio will use every type of wager to attack the sports betting markets… rollovers, parlays, teasers, straight bets, futures & more! Wagers may be placed in any sport where wagering is possible…whether NFL, horse racing on a Tuesday afternoon, or Aussie Rules Football…although 90%+ of wagers involve the major sports (NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, tennis & soccer)!
TSP Portfolio action is logged daily in the Content Logs at TheSharpPlays.com. You can view the performance of the TSP Portfolio by visiting the Portfolio Performance page on TheSharpPlays.com. The “Portfolio Performance” page breaks down the lifetime and current year’s performance across a variety of categories…it’s worth visiting regularly.
Are free TSP Portfolio wagers as good as TSP Portfolio wagers from paid content?
A common misconception is that “free content” is “lesser content”. The idea that free content is lesser content is WRONG! Public/free and subscriber/paid Portfolio action works together toward overall TSP Portfolio goals.
Also note, TSP Insiders’ (TSPInsiders.com) paid selections will carry risk for the TSP Portfolio. These separate TSP Portfolio wagers are expected to comprise only 5% of the wagers within TSP Portfolio each year. The other 95% of TSP Portfolio wagers will appear either in the TSP Live subscription or posted publicly. These wagers which do not appear for the TSP Portfolio within TSP Live are tracked separately as part of TSP Portfolio’s “Expanded Portfolio” subsegment. You will notice these wagers labeled as “Expanded” in the TSP Portfolio log under the “Location” column. Not purchasing a TSP Insiders selection will likely reduce the profits you will achieve, but it is unlikely to have a material effect on your individual ROI’s compared to the overall ROI’s for the TSP Portfolio given the quantity of Expanded Portfolio action within the over TSP Portfolio.
How much should you wager based on the action in the TSP Portfolio?
The TSP Portfolio allows The Sharp Plays to show wagers it wants to key in on, risk structure of wagers within a bankroll/portfolio, wagering strategies, and a lot more on a daily basis. The risk sizing is tailored to educate the NOVICE GAMBLER (i.e. low risk). The structure and strategy used within the TSP Portfolio is not the “right” way to do things…it is just The Sharp Plays’ way based on personal views, preferences, and tolerances. What someone should wager will vary by person (bankroll, risk tolerance, profit in hand, etc.)…and only you can answer that question.
The average wager is typically 1.0% to 1.5% of bankroll. So, if you decide to have a $10,000 bankroll for betting, you would then be wagering $100 or 1.0% of $10,000.
The ROI’s listed for the TSP Portfolio (click here for the Portfolio Performance page) are broken out by “Risk ROI” and “Bankroll ROI”.
The “Risk ROI” is the return on every dollar wagered on action within the TSP Portfolio. The “Bankroll ROI” is the return you achieve against your bankroll.
So, let’s say you have a bankroll of $10,000.
Next, let’s assume you have a “Risk ROI” of +5% and we will use $100 (1% of bankroll) as your average wager. Over the course of the year there are 500 wagers. We take the $100 average wager and multiply by 500 to get a total betting volume of $50,000 for the year. If your Risk ROI is +5%, then it means you earned +5% off your total betting volume for a profit of $2,500. You could also say you made $5 for every $100 risked…hence a +5% Risk ROI.
Moving further, you made $2,500 against a bankroll of $10,000. It means your +5% Risk ROI resulted in a +25.0% Bankroll ROI ($2,500 profit/$10,000 bankroll).
RISK ROI: +5.0%
BANKROLL ROI: +25.0%
It also does not matter to ROI whether your bankroll is $10,000,000 or $100. The above Risk and Bankroll ROI %’s would not change based on the size of your bankroll…but of course your dollar profit and dollar betting volume will obviously differ.
Someone with a $10,000,000 bankroll would be betting $100,000 per wager. At 500 wagers they would have $50,000,000 in betting volume. A +5% Risk ROI means they would gain a profit of $2,500,000 ($50M X 5%) and that is once again the same 25.0% Bankroll ROI ($2.5M profit/$10M bankroll) as it was for the person with the $10,000 bankroll.
What’s a good Risk ROI? The best sharps have long-term win percentages near 55% against the spread (sides/totals). So, here’s the Risk ROI based on -110 pricing and the win percentages shown.
Win Percentage = Risk ROI
52.38% is break-even at -110
53% = +1.18%
54% = +3.09%
55% = +5.00%
56% = +6.91%
57% = +8.82%
58% = +10.73%
59% = +12.64%
60% = +14.55%
Don’t believe me about the Risk ROI that the best sharps achieve? OK, I asked ChatGPT the following question: “what is the average [risk] ROI for a professional sports bettor”. The below italicized text is what ChatGPT returned. For the full ChatGPT response, visit TSP.Live/2024/11/11/are-you-a-pro/
The average ROI (Return on Investment) for a professional sports bettor can vary widely depending on the individual’s skill level, strategy, sport, and overall market conditions. However, in general, a “good” ROI for a professional sports bettor is typically in the range of 2% to 5%. Let’s break this down further:
1. Low ROI (1%–2%):
- Many professionals will be happy with a consistent ROI of around 1% to 2%. While this might seem low, in a field with high variance and the costs associated with betting (e.g., commissions, software, data, etc.), a 1%-2% ROI can still be quite profitable over the long term.
2. Moderate ROI (3%–5%):
- An ROI in this range is considered excellent. Bettors who can consistently achieve a 3% to 5% ROI have likely mastered certain sports or betting markets and have access to high-quality data and analytics. These bettors are often experts in one or two sports and specialize in specific markets (e.g., player props, futures, or niche betting options).
3. High ROI (5%+):
- Anything above 5% is very rare and would typically indicate exceptional skill, an edge in a particular market, or an advantage in finding inefficiencies that the broader betting community hasn’t noticed. These bettors may use advanced models, statistical analysis, or have insider information to generate their edge.
In summary, a 2%–5% ROI is typically the target for a professional sports bettor, and even this requires skill, discipline, and a long-term perspective. It’s important to note that sports betting is inherently risky, and short-term losses can occur even for skilled bettors. A positive ROI over a large sample of bets is generally what separates a professional from a casual bettor.
Your questions and feedback are always welcome! You can send a message by clicking here.
Hope you enjoy the TSP Portfolio and all the TSP content!
Good Luck!
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