TSP Live Education: Parlay Strategy (Keying Plays, Round Robins, Tolerance)

Parlay strategy could honestly be a thesis, but it would get very boring with math and stats. So, I will touch on a couple quick items on parlays. First, you won’t hear a lot of sharp bettors use parlays. They will cite the “sucker bet” nature of the bet and that is true….if you are a sucker and hitting less than 52.38% of your spread bets…then parlays will be a good way for you to dump a lot of money. However, if you hit better than 52.38%…you can turn parlays into a weapon against the book! For a deeper dive, I would refer you to a previous article on parlays, one of a few that I have on TheSharpPlays.com… CLICK HERE or for the direct link… https://thesharpplays.com/parlays-arent-just-for-suckers-anymore/

When I talk about parlays in this article, I am referring to my 1 unit parlays, not candy or pizza money parlays which tend to be about taking shots. My 1 unit parlays are strategic for me. So, with that in mind, let’s dive in.

First, my parlay design is simple, I just look at what I feel are the top 2,3,4,5 angles out there and put them into a parlay. No special mathematics or assessment beyond sorting out the content into what I like best…then tying those angles together. If they are indeed high percentage angles then I am optimizing my edge against the book based on expected long-term win percentages.

Do I use Round Robin parlays? Yes! If you don’t know what a Round Robin parlay is, give it a Google. Many times, like the parlay on Saturday, my parlays go down by 1 leg. Using a Round Robin (for example to turn a 4-leg parlay into FOUR 3-leg parlays) on Saturday’s parlay action would have cashed for a profit…and I would have another one riding the Giants tonight for more profits!

So, if I have a 1 unit 4-leg parlay, what should you bet on the FOUR round robin parlays that would be generated? I would want to keep this around 1-1.5 units…so thereby 0.25 to 0.40 units of risk per round robin would be the max.

What happens if the first leg of a 1 unit parlay goes down? Will I re-bet the other legs in a new parlay? Obviously I do not have a hard and fast rule for every situation, but I am open to re-betting the parlay. I did this on Saturday when South Alabama looked awful early on and the other legs were still to come. When South Alabama looked like trash, I just put in a new parlay with the remaining legs and did it for 1 unit. I am glad I did because it won…BUT…there is a risk…your losses can add up if the subsequent legs in the parlay also go down.

What about keying a selection? Keying a selection means to have a play you like and do multiple parlays or wagers tied to that play. Yes, I will often key a game I like in multiple exotics. Yesterday was a great example. I had the Buffalo Bills -2.5 as a 1 unit straight bet for the My Handicapping game in this week’s newsletter, I also had Buffalo in a 1 unit parlay I bet in the TSP Live content AND a 1 unit parlay I had from the previous day (me replay of the S Alabama parlay when S Alabama was sucking)…plus I had the Twitter rollover active on Buffalo -150! So, that’s 3.2 units of bankroll risk tied to the Bills. I am comfortable with that, and would not have cried if the Bills lost, but like everything, you have to assess whether you would be comfortable dropping 3.2 units if the Bills went down…killing the straight bet and the parlays. Again, there are those reading this who think a 4,5,6,7+ unit loss is something that should NEVER occur in professional gambling. You my friend are highly uneducated on gambling realities…no offense…just trying to help!

Parlays are not for everyone because they require TREMENDOUS PATIENCE! There are days I lose 2-3 units on parlays alone. I have people who shit themselves when they lose 2-3 units in a week. So, my parlay style might not work for these individuals. Being a parlay bettor requires you to understand one key thing…

PARLAYS WILL LOSE A LOT. There are occasions when I am down 10-15 units on parlays in my personal betting and then I connect on a longshot 20-1 parlay and nail a 6-1 parlay as well…next thing I know I went from -15 units to +11 units. Everyone can handle the +26 unit day…few can weather the -15 unit run in the process. So, if you want to bet parlays, losing a lot is something you have to accept…gotta weather the storms because parlay wins and losses, like everything in gambling, come in runs!

Also, the new domestic books that have come online since sports betting became accepted nationally will offer a lot of parlay boosts. If you are an advantage bettor, who is disciplined, using these boosts only expand your edge against the house on parlays…take these boosts when offered. I am not talking about the boosts that involve premade parlays the sportsbook is offering. Those premade parlays the book wants you to bet are a joke. I mean the boosts where you can create any parlay and the book is giving you 10,20,30% bonuses on the payout for those parlays. It is a great way to expand the edge and ROI for a successful parlay bettor…even if the limits for the boost are low ($50 or $100)…it’s still worth taking advantage!

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!