I posted a page which includes an in-depth breakdown of the performance of the Go Fast and Win and TSP Live Degenerate Portfolios. Not only do I breakdown the ROI’s overall and for the current year, but I also list the total wagers and break the action down by category (straight bet, teaser, rollover and parlay).
If you have no idea what I am talking about, you can visit TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/ to view. The link is available under the “Records & Logs” page which can be located in TheSharpPlays.com website menu and is posted throughout TSP content.
I am always told by the masses that parlays are a sucker bet. Well, as of February 28th (2024), parlays in both portfolios have a combined ROI of +11.7% on 301 parlay wagers. Not quite the sucker bet they are made out to be…at least for the way I put them together at The Sharp Plays.
However, as people reviewed the performance and saw the success of parlays, it brought up a question…could that success be amplified through the use of Round Robin parlays? A “round robin” is simply breaking up a single larger parlay into multiple smaller leg parlays. So, you might put together a parlay that has four wagers in it. However, maybe for whatever reason you are concerned by betting a four leg parlay. You don’t want to watch a pretty 3-1 day mean no money. So, you decide to bet a round robin to break up those four bets into smaller parlays.
When you have four parlay legs, you can create the following round robin combinations…
SIX 2 leg parlays…in a 3-1 day you would net +4.8 units (assuming 1 unit on each parlay for round number illustration)…in a 2-2 day you would lose 2.4 units.
OR
FOUR 3 leg parlays…in a 3-1 day you would net +3 units (assuming 1 unit on each parlay for round number illustration)…in a 2-2 day your would lose 4 units.
A 4-0 day would result in your six 2 leg parlays bringing in +16.2 units of profit and your four 3 leg parlays bringing in +24 units of profit.
Then there are round robin combos where you can do…
Six 2 leg parlays and the four 3 leg parlays for a total of TEN active parlays.
Maybe the 2 leg parlays aren’t of interest, you could instead do the four 3 leg parlays and one 4 leg parlay for a total of FIVE active parlays.
You could even do the six 2 leg parlays, four 3 leg parlays and one 4 leg parlay for ELEVEN active parlays.
As you can see, there are A LOT of possible combos of parlays in a round robin. The sole reason to bet a round robin is to avoid those occasions when you lose a juicy parlay on one bet…TSP followers definitely know that feeling.
IMPORTANT: DO NOT WAGER ON THESE STUPID SECOND CHANCE PARLAYS (or whatever a sportsbook might call them). THESE ARE THE PARLAYS WHERE YOU STILL GET PAID IF YOU LOSE ONE LEG…OR SOMETIMES TWO LEGS ON LARGE PARLAYS. THE ODDS OFFERED BY BOOKS ON THESE BETS ARE AWFUL. YOUR EVERY DAY ROUND ROBIN IS THE BETTER OPTION IF YOU WANT TO GET PAID ON LOSING ONE LEG OF YOUR PARLAY!
Is there an edge to using round robins?
The short answer would be that it depends on the content you are using. So, for most people the answer would be no. For most people who win less than 52.4% of their bets…which is 96% of the public…parlays are a sucker bet and so round robin parlays would also be a sucker bet. When it comes to TSP content the answer would be YES, there would be an edge. If parlays in both the TSP Live and Go Fast and Win portfolios are profitable, then round robins would be profitable as well.
Round robins are good for the impatient bettor. Parlays require a lot of patience. You will lose far more parlays than you win, but when you do win, the payout covers the losses and provides a nice profit on top (as can be seen by the very high ROI on parlays for the portfolios). The problem is many bettors like to cash tickets regardless of ROI. There are thousands of casual bettors that like betting -200 chalks because they will typically cash a good amount of tickets. It’s just that they will lose more than they win regardless of the fact they are cashing a lot of tickets.
There are occasions where I go 0-10 in a run on parlays…or worse…and then cash two parlays in a row and am not only back to even, but in the green. Very few bettors have that kind of patience. So, if that describes you…perhaps look into round robins as an option to play TSP parlay content.
So, you like the idea, but how much should someone bet on their round robin?
Obviously, like anything with money and risk, this will vary dramatically by person. What I typically suggest is to try and keep your risk on the round robin to the ballpark of what you would risk on a single parlay with those same legs.
So, if today you were going to bet 1 unit on a four leg parlay, but then got cold feet and decided you wanted to do FOUR 3 leg parlays instead with those teams…I would advise betting 0.25 units or 0.30 units per parlay. Thereby your risk is 1 to 1.2 units and right in line with what you were going to risk on the one parlay.
If you were going to risk 1 unit on a four leg parlay, I would not suggest betting four 3 leg parlays at 1 unit each for a total risk of 4 units. It’s just too much risk.
Just think of a round robin as a way to not only break up your large parlay into smaller parlays, but to also spread your risk on that one large parlay across those smaller parlays.
OK, thanks TSP…I got it…bet round robins and never lose!!!
Obviously, this is a joke, but my usual closing reminder to everyone. Betting for an income is not easy in any way. Every one of us loves the idea of the perceived carefree and leisurely lifestyle of a professional bettor…and don’t get me wrong, there are a lot of carefree occasions in this business. Great flexibility, sitting by the beach and watching your action, you make your schedule, travel, finer things in life…basically money and freedom. Just look at the most public version of this with Billy Walters. Who doesn’t like that sort of thing?!?! However…there’s a dark side too. Not every day is great. It’s the one business where you could put in hours and hours over the course of the week and not only not make money…BUT LOSE IT…despite that effort. It’s just that a professional knows that while they might put in 300 hours of effort in a month and get nothing that month…they will get paid for that time in the end…through the grind and over the long-term.
There is no magic trick or wager that will provide you zero pain in betting. If there was, I would have found it a long time ago as I have been educated along the way by some of the sharpest bettors and groups to ever exist and whom you will never hear about in your life…and who put Billy Walters (great guy and the most known prolific bettor) to shame in terms of profits, betting volume and success!
So, round robins are not the Holy Grail of sports betting or parlay success. Round robins are just another tool for your wagering arsenal. A weapon that can be used when it is chilly in the markets and you want to use the low risk, high return of parlays…but don’t want to have to get a 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0 sweep to turn a profit. For some, they just don’t like parlays so instead of taking a 3 leg parlay, they prefer three 2 leg parlays and thereby the round robin is perfect. Whatever the reason…there are plenty of uses for round robins and the biggest reason to do one is your feel on a set of wagers. Sometimes the best guide is your gut…listen to it from time to time.
Good luck!