One of the hardest things for me to get people to understand when it comes to gambling is…no matter how good you are…there are going to be periods of losses. You are going to have cold streaks and periods when you can’t pick the quinella in a two horse race. If you want to avoid losing, the strategy is simple…don’t gamble. However, if you are reading this today then the probability of you not gambling is likely the same as you never experiencing a losing month of gambling…ZERO.
So, since you can’t avoid losses, the optimal strategy is to minimize those losses during the inevitable cold runs. The TSP Index is a tool I use to see whether the sharps or the public have the momentum in the betting markets. It is a tool I use daily in TSP Live and can be found at TheSharpPlays.com (https://thesharpplays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/). I will save the deep details on the Index from this article. If you want some background, you can visit the link above in this paragraph and another article on the Index here in the TSP Education section (https://tsp.live/2023/11/22/tsp-live-education-utilizing-the-sharp-plays-index/).
The purpose of this article isn’t really to discuss the how the Index works, but rather to show a real life example of its performance recently and how it played into optimizing my wagering within the TSP Live Degenerate Portfolio (subscriber content) and the free Go Fast and Win Portfolio.
On December 28th, the TSP Index got to a reading of 3.3. The higher the positive number (maximum of 5) the hotter the sharp run. Usually, it is in the 3.3 to 3.5 area when a hot run for sharp money is coming to an end and regression is on the horizon. When this level was reached (3.3) on December 28th (2023), and in the days leading in as we crossed the “3.0” threshold, I made sure to mention it to TSP Live subscribers so they were aware of the potential storm clouds ahead. Well, lo and behold, on December 28th, after hitting 3.3 in the Index, the content lost…and then a cold period of 11 days followed. During the 11 day cold period from December 28th through January 7th, the Degenerate Portfolio lost 1.14 units. The hot run in December leading into the cold period saw the Degenerate Portfolio gain +6.52 units. Another good example of maximizing wins and minimizing losses.
On January 8th, the Degenerate Portfolio continued playing tight because of the on-going downtrend in the Index. Thankfully things turned on January 8th and I cashed a parlay and a straight bet on Washington/Michigan UN56.5. In that one day (January 8th) I picked up +0.45 units for the Degenerate Portfolio…and the Go Fast and Win Portfolio also cashed for +0.20 units. Not just because of those wagers, but due to sharp and public performances as a whole in the betting markets on January 8th, the Index then finally turned up when it was updated on the morning (8am ET) of January 9th, 2024…signaling at least a pause in the downtrend…if not an end to the downtrend and a new turn in favor of sharp money.
So, over 11 days the Degenerate Portfolio lost 1.14 units…and then in one day the Degenerate Portfolio got back a chunk of those losses. It didn’t stop there. On the evening of January 9th, the second day that this new uptrend in the Index was in play, the TSP content (free and paid) had a 6-0 performance! Coincidence? Longtime followers of the TSP Index would say no. The Score Prediction analytic for GoFastAndWin.com (free) went 3-0, including a +210 DRAW in Italian soccer…and the Degenerate Portfolio in TSP Live also went 3-0 on completely separate wagers! The result provided another +0.40 units to the Degenerate Portfolio and +0.52 units to the Go Fast and Win Portfolio.
Once again…11 days of a downtrend in the Index and a cool run for the content that resulted in -1.14 units in losses for the Degenerate Portfolio. Then over a two day span the Degenerate Portfolio collected +0.85 units of profit! Maximize wins…minimize losses…and USE THE INDEX TO KNOW THE CURRENT BETTING ENVIRONMENT YOU ARE WAGERING INTO FOR THAT DAY!
The pop in the TSP Index the past two days doesn’t mean the Index won’t resume a downtrend today, but it illustrates how through proper management, discipline and good wager strategy (low risk parlays with low risk straight bets to cover parlay action) that you can minimize losses in cold runs and be there to get running when things turn. How do we know of these runs…visually through the TSP Index! The TSP Index is a free tool available at TheSharpPlays.com (https://thesharpplays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/) and it takes all of a minute to review on a daily basis.
Subscribers in TSP Live get an expanded view of the TSP Index. The subscriber exclusive TSP Index table shows the sharp activity levels (average, above average, below average) on a daily basis broken down by league/sport and it also includes an assessment of which side of the market is trending…along with any special alerts or information gained through the TSP Index.
People tend to get all pissed off by losing streaks…which is silly because there is no avoiding them. Sure, I wish when you bought a TSP Live subscription, whether one week or one month, that you NEVER had a losing day, week or month…but that’s not possible. However, by riding the ups and downs you can come out ahead in the end. By playing tight when it was cold over those 11 days, the Degenerate Portfolio kept losses to only 1.14 units. At the same time, despite the cold streak, I continued having daily action in the Degenerate Portfolio in an effort to be ready for when the turn came…minimized risk, minimized losses. On January 8th the potential turn came and we got back almost half our losses (+0.45 units) that occurred over the previous 11 days…and then got another +0.40 units on January 9th!
Gambling isn’t easy, but it doesn’t have to be impossible. You can bet on a daily basis and be very successful IF you educate yourself on the betting environment and have a strategy and plan. TSP Live aims to teach bettors strategies and techniques that I have honed over almost 30 years in gambling and over 20 years as a professional gambler. You won’t win every day…but that’s OK because this business is a marathon and not a sprint!