I plan to do these race breakdowns a few times this month to provide insights into basic horse racing handicapping. Eventually developing them into an article for TheSharpPlays.com.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND…HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING IS COMPLEX. Just look at a racing form and you will see all sorts of numbers and information. Unless I were to write a book, which I do not have interest in doing, there is no way I can take someone who knows nothing about horse race handicapping and turn them into an expert. I learned horse handicapping over a period of YEARS…reading several books, taking the time to look at a racing form and learn what each part of it meant, etc. So, I will try to do a Cliff Notes version, but there will likely be A LOT of things you will need to educate yourself on in the process. If you have a desire to learn…you will need to put in effort. If you do not have a desire to learn…quit now and save yourself a ton of time.
I am going to Race #7 at Saratoga today.
For this race, the TSP Power Ratings show the following breakdown: 10/1/4-9-7/5-2-8-6-3
Since the breakdown was posted, the #2 horse was scratched.
Alright, so the next step is to open the racing form to Race #7. You can obtain a racing form from DRF.com (Daily Racing Form) at the cost of $4.25 for the “Classic” form. Here is a copy of the racing form at BRISNET.com (CLICK HERE).
Now here is where this could become a 100 page thesis. How do we decipher the form. I will touch on parts of what I am looking at, but if this is of interest to you then I would say to visit https://www.wikihow.com/Read-a-Racing-Form.
My first step is to scroll through the form and just take a look at the horses. The notes can be very helpful to limit the horses I am interested in.
So, in the notes, I see the following…
#1) I see he switches to a high percentage jockey, the trainer has a 37% win rate when a horse comes of a claim (a “Claimer” is a type of race where owners can agree to purchase a horse prior to the race being run), the horse finished 3rd in its last race and the jockey for today has been hot over the last 7 days…winning 7 races, coming in 2nd in 3 races and coming in 3rd in two races out of 21).
Just based on the notes and not diving into anything too technical yet, I like what I see with the #1.
#2) The horse won its last race (at BAQ which is Belmont at Aqueduct on July 7th…a 7 furlong race on the dirt which was a fast track and the horse was in a $20,000 claimer…which means owners could have claimed it for $20K). However, I see a negative note that the trainer is poor with a horse in his 3rd race of a layoff only winning 7% of his starts.
I will pass on this horse because I don’t like betting on horses off a win. Typically when a horse wins the owner/trainer will move the horse up in class or perceived class and so a back to back of wins is often a little tough. Sure it happens…but it is a lower probability situation.
The horse is also scratched so no need to bother with it.
#3) The horse won its last race and had a sharp 3 furlong workout on July 8th…I like seeing horses off a good workout. However, there are two negative notes…the horse is moving up in class off the win and the horse’s speed figures (the bold numbers under “SPD” on the form portion of the records) are poor com pared to the other horses in the race. I will toss this one out for now.
#4) The horse was a favorite in its last race and lost, but the trainer has logged 18% winners after his horse lost as a favorite.
Not a bad horse and one worth noting. So, now I am looking 1 and 4 at this point.
#5) Won its last race and had a strong workout BUT as we can see and what I discussed above about why I don’t like horses off a win…the horse is moving up in class from the last race. So, it will be facing tougher competition. Granted it blew away the last field it faced…the move up in class is still a concern. A possible horse for the end of a trifecta wager.
#6) Another horse that won its last race. However the trainer does win 28% of its races off a claim. Interesting horse…but I don’t think strong enough.
#7) This horse has a lot going on…it switches to a high percentage jockey, it drops in class, it moves from a route (long distance) to a sprint (short distance), it adds blinkers (which is helpful for horses that get distracted while racing) and it has the fastest speed of any horse in a race. The problem is it showed declining form in its last race. However, when I check the last race comments…the horse was bumped at the break, was 6 wide at the first turn and then 4-5 wide at the second turn. Being wide will kill the speed of the horse and fatigue it rapidly…so it is no wonder it had a shitty race. Interesting horse here.
So, now I am eyeing 1,4,6,7
#8) Uh oh…another winner of the last race. It has had a sharp workout and it had a very strong speed rating in its last race. However, the horse has not raced in 2 months so it could be a little rusty and this trainer has 0 wins in 30 starts when the horse has been away for 46-90 days…I’ll pass.
#9) The horse drops in class, is moving back to a sprint (from long distance racing) and is tied for the best dirt speed among today’s starters. The problem is the horse has not raced in more than 8 months…so it can be tough to come off that long of a layoff. It would be nicer if I could see that recent workouts were blistering and thereby the horse is returning to form…but I don’t see it. I’ll pass.
#10) We have the favorite here. The horse is tied for the highest last race speed rating and is coming off a win. I don’t like that the horse is coming off a win. When I look, the race was a $20,000 allowance just like this one. The horse won that race by 4 length (I can see this in the “FIN” column for the last race). It’s a decent margin to win by…but the owner/trainer is putting him in the same class of race here…not moving him up off the win? It could be because he is changing tracks and just wants the horse to get familiar with racing at Saratoga…but that also points to me that the trainer might not feel the horse is ready yet to be competitive. So, clearly a good horse, but at 2/1 I am concerned on the value I might get. It’s a horse I will note for my exotics.
At this point I have reviewed all the horses and I like 1,4,6,7,10.
The TSP Power Ratings ranks the horses as 10/1/4-9-7/5-2-8-6-3
I am concerned I won’t get much value by betting the 10 on my wager. It’ll be the favorite and go off as a negative value. So, it might win, and it is a good on-paper horse hence the “10/” in the TSP Power Ratings, but I will not win long-term betting horses if I bet the favorite on top of my wager.
So, I am going to do a $1 exacta wheel as follows…
1st Place: 1,4,7
2nd Place: 1,4,6,7,10
The wager will cost $12. In a normal situation I would probably only bet 1 to 2 horses for the 1st place spot, but I just want to use this as an example of narrowing down a field using the TSP Power Ratings and the racing form.
The order of finish was 5-1-3-10. The exacta lost $12.
So, in the first place spot I put the 1,4, and 7. One of these needs to win the race. In the second place spot I put 1,4,6,7,10…one of these needs to finish second. If one of the horses I have to win does win and one of the horses I have for second comes in second…I win my exacta! I removed the #6 from the top spot of my exacta because it is way down on the TSP Power Ratings. I like it, so I will use it only for 2nd place. I also removed the #10 from the top spot because the exacta won’t pay much if it wins and it’s better to bet for value.
I have gotten the above by just using the notes and a couple little dives into the past performance. Perhaps you can take the time to see what I am reading when I do dive into the past performance. I will break down past performance a little further in the next article. The goal of these is just a step by step approach to handicapping.
I want to get this out so I apologize for grammar as I did not proofread before publishing. Any issues, please let me know!
Good luck!