Good evening,
If you are a TSP Live veteran, you probably don’t need to read this…although it might be worth the 8-10 minutes as it could help to tweak your wager strategy and performance. For newbies looking to create their own portfolio strategy, versus just following the TSP Portfolio…because I recognize the Portfolio’s style may not be for everyone…I wanted to provide some thoughts.
Once again, the TSP Portfolio is tailored to the novice bettor with a more passive risk format. While the Portfolio ABSOLUTELY gets aggressive at times, it must have some house money in hand for that week/month to get aggressive…otherwise it grinds. A passive strategy may not be for some people, including novice bettors, so…for those looking to up the aggression…is there anything I would suggest?
First, it is important to say that NO WAGERING STRATEGY WILL PREVENT LOSING! When people ask me to assist them with a wager strategy they are always looking for some sort of mechanical wagering method where if they do X, Y and Z each day then it will be easily, simple, consistent. No such wagering strategy exists. You have to expect ups and downs…but if you are wagering on value angles and quality content, like that in TSP Live, the wins should outweigh the losses OVER TIME and that’s how you gain a profit. So, if the TSP Portfolio isn’t quite right for you, I will share some things you can tweak/change/incorporate to hopefully make a strategy that works for you.
The natural wagering evolution for a bettor, beyond just betting the TSP Portfolio (click here for more details) for the risk listed (what I would consider a Tier 1 bettor), is betting the other graded TSP Live content for a fixed wager amount. For example, many veteran gamblers/TSP Live subscribers will follow the Portfolio AND also bet the angles on the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus, Book Positions, Group Buys, High Level Book Needs, as well as any Algorithm Selections as straight bets for a fixed wager. When it comes to wagering the TSP Live Radar, I suggest checking the table 5 minutes before the game to verify the wager is still a valid play and then bet. Yes, you do not get the best line value BUT the TSP Live Radar is graded based on closing line…so you are wagering on the price being graded and resulting in the performance listed!
How much should your fixed wager amount be? You have to answer that based on your personal risk tolerance. There are those of you reading this who absolutely shit your pants and cry to me like a little baby when you lose 2 bets in a day. At the same time there are others who can lose 2-4% of their bankroll on a single game…before halftime…and let that roll right off their back and on to the next wagers. So, I can’t really help you on what risk is right for you, only you know that answer. Bettor’s tolerance for losses is the key to answering this question and bettors can have dramatic differences in their tolerances.
What I can say is that Tier 1 of wagering with The Sharp Plays involves just following the Portfolio. Tier 1 is basic, slow, methodical, passive…BUT provides a very healthy ROI and profit over the long haul. It is easy, requires no thinking…takes only a little time each day and you just rinse and repeat day after day. The good of Tier 1 is that it is simple with a strong long-term ROI. The bad of Tier 1 is that you are at the mercy of my novice style/strategy for the Portfolio…and some people don’t like passive betting. So, what can you do?
The Tier 2 strategy will provide a long-term profit, but every step where you are increasing your betting volume will open you up to more open risk and that means good days are a lot of fun…but bad days will see more losses than you would experience as just a Tier 1 bettor. It’s something you have to accept if you want to expand your volume. Once again, I can lose 10% of my bankroll in a day and say “oh well, that sucked…on to tomorrow.” A LOT of gamblers cannot do that. If you know you can’t just roll with a 10% losing day then Tier 2 may not be for you. Sure, we can all handle the 10% winning days, but handling winning is not usually a problem for gamblers. Handling the losses is the issue and what separates the Pro’s from the Joe’s.
Tier 3 of wagering with The Sharp Plays involves not just everything in Tier 2, but incorporating Tony and Wolf’s action. These are professional bettors and over time they will absolutely provide a net positive return, HOWEVER because you are further expanding your volume of betting, you are also further expanding your volatility. Winning days are epic and losing days can be very painful depending on the extent of the losses. Everyone can handle the good part of volatility…those BIG winning days. Very few people can handle the inevitable big losing days. If you can’t handle the big losers, then Tier 3 may not be for you.
Tier 4 of wagering with The Sharp Plays involves analyzing the free content that is out there like the 1st Quarter Algorithm, TSP Bot, etc. and making your own decisions on which of that content…or all of it…fits for you. I don’t even dive much into Tier 4 because the volume is just too much for me. I like low volume, high percentage wagers. I consider myself a Tier 3 bettor, but that’s because I have a very large risk tolerance and substantial betting fortitude. Don’t follow Tier 3 because I do it…you and I are two different…perhaps very different…types of bettors. Some of you would vomit at the losses on a bad day for me…others wouldn’t bat an eye. Again, I am stressing this point of assessing your personal risk tolerance because you should not just blindly follow someone’s style or just blindly follow content just because you want to emulate a person or strategy…you might not be able to handle it…and then you are no longer emulating them but messing with some sort of wacky hybrid strategy and that becomes a mess. Consistency in gambling in key. There is ZERO shame in acknowledging you are just a Tier 1 bettor. In fact, that’s great because you are being honest with what you can handle and that will make you a better bettor!
Not everyone has betting fortitude. Not everyone can view this as a long-term game. Some of you place one bet and then are suicidal in the first 5 minutes when your bet of Alabama +3 is down 7-0…already writing it off as a loss, ranting about how sports are fixed, cursing everyone and everything, etc. If this describes you in even the slightest of ways…stick to Tier 1 until you develop some betting fortitude and an understanding of professional betting realities. Once you get comfortable with the swings in Tier 1 and no longer sweat every single bet like your life depends on a win…then move to Tier 2. Take some time to get comfortable with Tier 2 and once you are rolling with the wins and especially the losses involved as being a Tier 2 bettor…then perhaps you are ready to move to Tier 3…if it interests you. If all goes well in Tier 3 and you want more…test out Tier 4 and cover all the content. If you get to any of these tiers and find it isn’t for you…no problem…just drop back down to the previous tier and spend more time there.
Hope this helps you to develop your own managed portfolio strategy! Feel free to send any questions at any time!
Good luck!