Good evening!
The below was originally published in TSP Live on Tuesday, November 26th. I wanted to publish it to the education section so it is there for reference. Let’s begin…
The TSP Portfolio is the core of TSP Live content, not necessarily by design, but because the majority of people don’t really want to read intel and assess analytics…and prefer just to blind follow something. I get it, so because of that I am working to “optimize” the Portfolio to better fit this style.
First, on the TSP Portfolio Performance page (https://thesharpplays.com/portfolio-performance/), you will now see stats for an “Advanced” Portfolio. The “Advanced” Portfolio will include wagers in the TSP Portfolio that come from TSP Insiders (Free and Paid) or are posted free/publicly (like the charity rollovers). The reason the Advanced Portfolio subsegment is separated is so that you can assess performance of the TSP Portfolio action that is delivered through TSP Live…and then see the portion of TSP Portfolio action that comes from “everything else” outside your TSP Live subscription…free (Telegram/Twitter/X) or paid (TSP Insiders).
The goal of this is so that those who don’t want to participate in TSP Insiders free/paid action, especially the paid purchases, will be able to assess performance of the TSP Portfolio wagers that are part of the TSP Live subscription. Thereby these folks who only want to stick to TSP Live Portfolio action can see the value they get for their subscription. Someone who feels this way would just look at the current year’s performance for the TSP Portfolio overall, subtract any Advanced Portfolio action, and the result of that equation would show you the performance of all wagers for the TSP Portfolio that were delivered through TSP Live only.
Second, to make assessing your wager size for the Portfolio easier, on the TSP Portfolio page (https://tsp.live/portfolios/), I now state that the suggested bankroll for the TSP Portfolio…so 100% of your bankroll…is 10 units. Ten units might see small, but assuming that the average TSP Portfolio wager is 0.10 to 0.20 units, it means that the average TSP Portfolio wager is 1% to 2% of your bankroll. Risking 1-2% of your bankroll on individual wagers is relatively standard for professional bettors. Usually the more aggressive pros will top out at 5% bankroll risk on any given wager. My hope is this stated bankroll structure will make it easier to decide on your bankroll and wager sizing…versus using multipliers and such any longer. I know the multiplier math was confusing for a lot of people, this should now make it pretty straight forward.
If a 10 unit bankroll is too aggressive and you can’t handle the ups and downs, use a 20 unit bankroll and maintain the same 1.3 to 1.6% average bet. So, instead of 0.13 and 0.16 units…you would wager 0.65% and 0.80% on each wager. Still too aggressive?
Let’s say you have a $10,000 bankroll. Today there is a wager of 0.1 units on a parlay. It means you would wager 1% or $100 on the parlay. Obviously, this is just an example and each person needs to assess their preferences and risk tolerances for themselves, but I am showing how I will now view the action.
Naturally, most actual and aspiring pro’s will ask…why not just make the bankroll 100 units and the average wager 1 unit? Simple…gamblers mentality. The biggest problem I have with the every day gambler is that they become emotional midgets over losses…even the smallest or most normal of betting fluctuations. So, -0.55 units is seen by the mind as a lot better than -5.5 units…and because of that it will tend to keep the casual gambler in a better frame of mind. Both -0.55 units out of a 10 unit bankroll, and -5.5 units out of a 100 unit bankroll, equate to the same -5.5% of the bankroll lost…an average losing day for most pro’s. So, yes…100 units and 1.3 to 1.6 units per average wager will return THE EXACT SAME ROI’S as having a 10 unit bankroll and risking 0.13 to 0.16 units per average wager. There’s no difference, except one will see a casual gambler keep their cool better, the other…they will lose their minds!
Both the TSP Portfolio page (https://tsp.live/portfolios/) and the TSP Portfolio Performance page (https://thesharpplays.com/portfolio-performance/) have been updated to reflect these adjustments, so I would suggest checking them out just so you are up to speed.
Lastly, please understand…my methods have achieved a bankroll ROI of +89% this year, +350% lifetime and wager ROIs of +16.3% lifetime and +8.9% in 2024. Both the lifetime and 2024 ROI’s are WELL BEYOND “exceptional” level for professional sports betting…which begins at 5.1%. I ABSOLUTELY WILL MAKE MISTAKES AND NOT DO THINGS BY THE TEXTBOOK…but please don’t waste my time reading messages about how I should do it differently. If you have a better way, send me all your plays every single day…minimum 500 wagers (TSP Portfolio averages 750+ wagers per year) and if you beat the TSP Portfolio wager ROI’s, then I will listen. Until then…I am open to feedback or sharing strategy, but if you are just looking to criticize…I am quite happy with the TSP Portfolio being the highest performing betting content in the sports service industry and the top 1% in the world for professional sports bettors.
I welcome any questions or feedback. I am sharing this in TSP Live first to get any feedback and then will post this or an edited final version to the TSP Live Education section for future reference.
Good luck!