“When should I recalibrate my bankroll based on profits?”
The truth is, there’s no perfect answer. You never know when the next cold run is coming, and recalibrating right before one can create serious emotional swings. And as I’ve said before—emotion is the #1 disease for bankrolls.
That said, here are two common methods I recommend:
1. Aggressive Approach
Recalibrate whenever you gain 20–30% (or 20–30 units, depending on how you track performance). At that point, take half the profits for yourself (or into a reserve account), and raise your bankroll with the other half.
Example:
Starting bankroll: $10,000
After a 20% gain: $12,000
Pull out $1,000, keep $11,000 as your bankroll
New 1% bet size = $110 per wager
For me, this would mean betting $110 on plus moneylines or betting to win $110 on negative moneylines (whether +3 (-110) or -180 on a straight moneyline)
This method lets you enjoy profits sooner while still growing your bankroll with calculated aggression.
2. Passive Approach
Recalibrate every January 1st. This aligns with the philosophy behind the “Slow and Steady” article.
It doesn’t protect you from a cold run in January, but it allows profits to accumulate for an entire year before adjusting. This makes it much easier to ride out variance—because the more profit you’ve built, the easier it is to handle drawdowns.
By contrast, the aggressive method can cause you to recalibrate right before a regression, which often sparks frustration and poor emotional decisions for some bettors.
Final Thoughts
Both methods work—it’s about choosing the style that fits your risk tolerance and emotional control. Some bettors prefer to bank wins more frequently, while others let the full year play out before making adjustments. If you are unsure, I would suggest the passive approach for most gamblers.
Either way, the key is consistency and discipline.
Feel free to send in your questions—and good luck this season!
The below commentary was first published on August 17th in a TSP Live alert. It has been updated for article format and posted to the TSP Live Education section for future reference.
🔄 The Grind Continues
I love what we do at The Sharp Plays. But one of the toughest challenges is getting gamblers to understand the realities of professional gambling. Every day, I battle against the myths that people bring with them—misconceptions fueled by boiler room touts, sportsbooks showing big payouts/winners, movies/TV, and hype.
Many of you have been lead to believe that “professional gambler” means:
Winning almost every day, week and month.
Rarely experiencing losses, let alone extended losing streaks.
Living a fantasy lifestyle of easy money with very little time or effort required.
The truth? That’s far from reality…BUT there’s light at the end of the tunnel…and a great lifestyle for those who work toward it. Let’s discuss!
💡 The Reality of Professional Gambling
Yes, you can live a great life from gambling—I do. I have a lot of nice things, financial freedom, travel all the time (which is my passion), enjoy a schedule I set for myself every day, and I love it all. How did I get all this…GAMBLING! My income doesn’t come from TSP, it comes from my professional betting. HOWEVER, it wasn’t overnight success.
Started Gambling in 1991 (Middle School): My journey began in middle school, where I operated small $0.50 and $1 pools for my friends and bet on football parlay cards my family would get from work. My stakes were modest—just $1 or $2—but I was hooked on the idea of easy money, despite the harsh reality that there was none to be found. It took me years to realize that truth, after a long string of losses.
Joined English Sports Betting (1993): In 1993, I took the leap and signed up with English Sports Betting (ESB), which gave me access to a bookie. At this point, my action was limited to $5 parlays and $10 straight bets. I withdrew once, and I still have the check they sent me in my files. It was my first ever withdrawal from an offshore sportsbook—though there weren’t many after that! I had a few lucky runs, but ultimately, the losses piled up. My dream was to turn a $100-$200 bankroll into thousands, get a sweet car, and live the high school dream, but it didn’t work out. Still, it set me on a path to a bigger opportunity.
Bookmaking & Offshore Gambling (Late 90s – 2000): By the late 90s, I was performing better than I had at the start, though I still wasn’t seeing long-term profits. After 6-9 years in, I was still a “lifetime loser.” However, it was during this time that I got involved in the book side of offshore gambling. This opened my eyes to the realities of sports betting and, more importantly, how I could profit from both sides of the counter. It was here that I found my big break.
Real Consistency (2003 Onward): In 2003, I found true consistency after applying discipline and focusing on long-term results. Realize it took me 12 years just to get to this point from when I started. This shift was largely due to the mentorship I received from a gambling expert (my “gambling Yoda”) I met during my time on the book side of offshore gambling. He played a crucial role in helping me get to where I am today.
The Slow Build to Success: From there, my bankroll grew steadily and powerfully. While I wanted success to come quickly, the process was slow and methodical. Looking back on those early days, I can hardly believe where I am now. It’s been an incredible journey that I never thought would come to fruition—but it did. It just took time to play out. There were no shortcuts!
Professional sports gambling is about long-term compounding, not quick riches. Time, effort and fortitude combined with patience was the key for me.
Problem is, most gamblers only have patience for quick riches, not the long-term realities.
Just a 3% average gain per month will 8x your bankroll in 6 years.
This does not mean every month you must make 3%. It just means that at the end of every year you want to have a +36% bankroll gain (+36 units) which works out to an average of +3% (+3 units) per month. It could be every month makes you around 3% OR it could be 1 month you pickup an 80% gain (+80 units) and the other 11 months you lose a combined 44% or 44 units…you still made 36%/36 units that year…an average of +3% or +3 units per month for that year.
Start with $10,000 → after 6 years = $80,000.
Another 6 years = $640,000.
Another 6 years = $5,120,000.
That’s an 18-year journey from $10,000 to $5.12M. Slow? Yes. Worth it? Absolutely.
Now, TSP Live has never averaged worse than +5% per month. That level turns $10,000 into:
$168,000 in 6 years.
$5.12M in just over 13 years
Cuts roughly 5 years off the time horizon…but still now “overnight” or next year.
🐢 Be the tortoise, not the hare.
Problem is every gambler wants to be the hare…$10,000 bankroll today and they want a $500,000 bankroll by the end of the year. Bettors want to go from dropping $100/unit to $5,000/unit overnight. I was one of them myself, there’s no shame in it. It’s just important to recognize the foolishness of the idea so that you can be ready to get that $500,000 in a way supported by math and reality. The foolishness isn’t all your fault because you are sold that such growth can be possible. Who sells you on this idea? Unsavory touts trying to get you to pay them fees to help you on the journey to fast money…while having no transparency and in most cases…honesty. The other people selling you on the easy money idea…the sportsbooks themselves. Yet, the dream is so good you don’t care who is selling it to you, you want to believe it…and you do. You could get out of the job you hate, have a great house, car, women, money, freedom…and all doing something you love! Who would want to let that dream go?!?! Oh and God forbid anyone try to convince you that professional gambling doesn’t work this way. You will fight to the death to keep your dream…holding on to hope…even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
“Hope is the worst of evils, for it prolongs the torment of man.” — Friedrich Nietzsche
🚫 The Trap of Chasing Shortcuts
Gamblers often sabotage themselves by:
Quitting when growth feels “too slow.”
Nobody wants to wait 12-13 years to turn $10,000 into $5.12M…they WANT IT TOMORROW!!!!
Obsessing over bad days, weeks and months.
You have to realize that in a journey of 12-13 years…a bad day or bad week is just a drop in the bucket. There’s going to be HUNDREDS of them! Deal with it and move on. Obsessing over bad days, weeks, months or runs is a bankroll eating infection that will cause you to bet emotionally and then… bye-bye bankroll!
Trying to avoid losses instead of accepting them as part of the grind.
Instead of just accepting the bad days, people try to figure out ways to avoid them. The biggest idea I always hear is when the TSP Index is turning down, indicating public success and sharp underperformance, people get the idea of “following the public”. It doesn’t work. How about just keep grinding through and the next hot streak will be here to erase it all. You don’t have to think so hard. People overthink the process and try to find ways to strategize not losing. It often puts them in analysis paralysis.
THE MATH ABOVE INCLUDES RIDING EVERY LOSING STREAK AND COLD RUN ALONG THE WAY. You don’t need to outthink the TSP method, strategy and systems. The performance has all the cold runs and losses baked into the numbers. So, sit back and just ride! Keep emotion and expectations out of it! Expectations just set you up for disappointment…and that’s another doorway to allow emotion to overwhelm your betting.
Reality check: Profits don’t arrive in the same months every year. Some years, February is hot. Other years, it’s ice cold. If you try to time it, you’ll always miss. This is something I try to emphasize every year as people decide to pass on this or that month because “last year it sucked”. People see last December (2024) as ice cold…and it was…but the previous December (2023)…was one of the best months of TSP content EVER!!!! You just never know, so don’t try to know…just GRIND!
The only strategy that consistently works: ➡️ Place your bets daily. ➡️ Accept wins and losses without emotion. ➡️ Keep grinding.
🏆 What It Looks Like in Practice
At TSP Live in 2025:
We are up +63 units year-to-date (TSP Portfolio & Hermes A.I.).
That’s an average of +7.88% per month.
On pace for +94.6% return this year.
Great numbers right?!?! Well, they include losing months in January and February, a losing August (so far), but some epic wins in the mix. Imagine if you quit after last December or this January or February?!? You would have missed a hell of a run. Those who just rode the good and the bad…they are having a great year!
Even with inevitable losing streaks, the grind always delivers long-term growth. If it didn’t, TSP wouldn’t still be here since 2011.
🌟 Final Word: Be the Tortoise 🐢
Forget the fantasy sold by unsavory touts and sportsbooks. Professional gambling isn’t about games of the year, miracle jackpot parlays, or easy money.
It’s about:
Steady discipline.
Compounding returns.
Grinding through the tough days, weeks and months.
ZERO EMOTION!
Stay consistent, stay patient, and remember this age old wisdom:
Everyone loves the big months where we rake in +10%, +15%, even +25% or more, but the truth is—most months are a grind.
Let’s do some quick math: 📌 If you averaged just +3% per month, you’d see a +36% bankroll return per year. To put that in perspective, that kind of ROI would make your retirement account blush.
So I asked ChatGPT:
“What percentage of mutual funds earn 36% annually?” ChatGPT replied: “Virtually 0%. Sustaining 36% annually over multiple years is nearly unheard of due to market volatility and reversion to the mean.”
That’s right—almost no mutual fund hits those kinds of returns consistently. Yet sports betting done right can achieve this and more.
💸 Compounding Is the Secret Weapon
Using the classic Rule of 72, a 36% return means you’d double your bankroll in just over 2 years. And in 6 years, you’d 8x it. That’s the kind of exponential growth normally reserved for venture capital or high-risk stock plays.
And yet, with TSP content, this isn’t a fantasy. 📌 We’ve never had a year with less than a 60-unit gain—equivalent to a 60% bankroll return.
💭 The False Dream vs. The Real Path
Too many new bettors start with a $1,000 or $10,000 bankroll, expecting to quit their jobs and turn it into $200,000 in 12 months. Is it possible? Technically, yes… but you’d need lottery-level luck.
🎲 Parlays and high-risk plays might make it happen, but the real path to financial freedom through betting is consistent, compounding profit.
Let’s say you average just +3 units per month. Over time, that grows your bankroll. Once you reach $200K, now 3% a month = $6,000/month = $72,000/year — there’s your goal…for now…until you up that to the next stage.
The key? Patience.
🤙 My Journey: From $5 Bets to $80,000 Plays
I say this often because it matters. I started betting in high school in the mid-90s. My average bet? $5. A $50 wager was massive.
Over time, I grew. Slowly. I remember literally praying each week at church to gain the skill to make $50,000 a year betting. I promised God that if He could help me get over the hump, I would put in the work. I did my best to hold up my end of the bargain—and if my life is any indication, God certainly kept His.
💥 In 2006, after 13 years of grinding, failures, resets, resilience, I made my biggest single wager: $80,000 on the Buffalo Bills +12 vs. Colts (11/12/2006) Final: Colts 17 – Bills 16. The Bills covered wire-to-wire. It was a turning point—and the result of years of patience, discipline, and resilience. I sat back that night and thought back to those early days of $5 bets…and couldn’t help but get a little emotional over what I achieved. Then I enjoyed a nice vacation!
🚀 You Can Do This Too
I’m nobody special. I just did the work.
✅ I studied. ✅ I failed—many times. ✅ I stayed patient. ✅ I played the long game.
That’s how you turn sports betting into a profession and a compounding asset. Even +3% monthly is a monster return—and if you can do better, you’re printing money.
🔁 Final Word: Keep Grinding
Every day you stay disciplined, you’re getting closer to your goals. Whether you’re up +3% or +30%, remember: slow growth is still growth.
Stick to the grind. Respect the numbers. And let’s keep building, one unit at a time. 💪📈
Sustain elite performance, cover rising costs, and avoid an increase in 2026.
If Winning Were Easy…
…everyone would do it. …I’d just pay $999/month to someone else and chill. But no such service exists. That’s why The Sharp Plays was built, why I am here — and why you’re here reading this.
Hermes Elite A.I. was launched January 13th, and here’s how it’s done:
📈 +55.35 units profit across 482 wagers
💰 +10.60% Return on Risk (“ROR”) for all plays
💥 +22.18% ROR for plays with scores ≥ 40
🔥 TSP Portfolio in 2025? +22.17% bankroll gain, +9.72% ROR — and that’s considered a “slow year”!
None of this is fluff. These are logged and documented results for the core content of TSP Live…every play delivered to you in TSP Live!
🏆 Over 95% of my income comes from my personal wagering & investments — not TSP. Your subscription covers the cost of winning, not my lifestyle.
💵 New Pricing (Effective August 28th, 2025)
TSP Live Monthly (Calendar Month): $249.99 ($8.06/day)
TSP Live Football Season (6 months): $1,249.99 (save ~$250 — one month free)
TSP Live Annual (12 months): $2,499.99 (save ~$500 — two months free)
TSP Live 7-Day Pass: $59.99 (up from $54.99 — $8.57/day)
For comparison, a 12 count of grilled nuggets at Chick-Fil-A is $8.99. TSP Live is cheaper ($8.06 per day), a lot more fun, and puts money INTO your pocket after enjoying it!
📈 How the New Prices Were Decided
📊 First, I base pricing on:
Real operating costs
Expected subscriber count
Long-term investment and reinvestment expectations
Market prices…except 98% of the rest of the market loses you money (see Deadspin article below)
And yes, a reasonable profit (because otherwise, what’s the point of this level of effort?)
Second, I did a deep dive into performance and inflation data—assisted a ChatGPT (linked here & above).
In 2019, TSP paid content cost $200/month…and was nowhere near as comprehensive as it is today.
Adjusted for inflation, that would be $247/month in today’s dollars.
ChatGPT’s analysis, based on performance, found a fair market value for TSP Live of $499/month.
The goal is not to pick pockets, but elite performance demands real, ongoing investment. It takes serious resources to operate at this level—a level that consistently outperforms 99.99% of sports services/handicappers and 99% of professional bettors alike. That’s not hype—it’s backed by math and actual performance data.
Show me someone who outperforms The Sharp Plays, documents it publicly for full transparency, continually evolves with the latest tech, and has done it for 15 years straight.I’ll wait. 😎
🔍 Who Is TSP Live For?
Anytime I have ever been asked, my response has been that TSP Live is best suited for bettors wagering $250+ per unit. Of course, even $50/unit bettors can turn a good profit given TSP Live’s strong and consistent performance, but optimal value comes at the $250/unit mark.
I advise using a conservative average of +3 units/month for profit projection/analysis, even though:
📊 The 15-year TSP history has never seen a year average less than +5.0 units/month.
📅 2024 had the lowest recent performance but still delivered +6.25 units/month.
📅 2025 is on pace for +11.0 units/month (YTD) on Hermes A.I. & TSP Portfolio.
Using a +3 unit per month average ensures your ROI expectations are well grounded so that anything above 3 units is pure gravy…and that’s where we expect to be!
At $250/unit, your breakeven moves from 0.72 units/month to 1 unit/month with the new price. That’s 12 units/year of profit needed to break even…TSP Portfolio & Hermes average +11.0 units/MONTH Even the conservative +3 units/month = +36 units/year = already +24 units above break-even!
Example: In 2024, a year without Hermes, TSP Portfolio gained +75 units. Subtracting the new $249/month fee (~1 unit/month = 12 units/year) = +63 unit profit AFTER fees for 2024…based on 2025 pricing.
👉 The Sharp Plays does the work. You collect the checks. Think of The Sharp Plays as your sports betting agent. Yes, TSP gets a cut of your profits, but where would those profits be without The Sharp Plays content?
🕵️♂️ TSP Insiders Selections: Pricing and Purpose
TSP Insiders is a premium add-on, designed for advanced bettors who want even more firepower. Yes, by strong demand over the past few months, and the response for Wolf’s Wimbledon package, ALL Group Moves from TSP Insiders (0-20+ per month) will be available for the TSP audience starting August 1st.
A more aggressive price increase for TSP Insiders selections helps offset costs and allows for a smaller increase in the TSP Live subscription price. It also means Wolf & Tony better BRING IT!
New TSP Insiders (Wolf & Tony) Price: $34.99 per selection (was $25.00) – TSP Insiders can set their own price, but Wolf and Tony have agreed to this price for 2025 and 2026…other TSP Insiders may set different prices and then the choice is yours whether you want to experience their content.
Why? ChatGPT’s fair value range for Wolf & Tony was $50–$100 per pick given the level of performance (again, click here for the full analysis) they deliver. The industry average is around $30 per pick—and let’s be honest, most of the industry loses. TSP Insiders consistently deliver Top 1% performance, and even with the above price increase, remain priced well below fair market value ($50–$100) and priced just above the average—despite performing exponentially above the average handicapper.
TSP Insiders Adopts Performance-Based Pricing – TSP Insiders will now feature performance-based pricing. The standard cost per pick is $34.99, but if an Insider is running cold, the price could drop as low as $2.99. – This model not only gives you better value during downturns, but also motivates each Insider to maintain top-tier performance—because higher success means maintaining the premium price point.
IMPORTANT NOTE: You don’t need TSP Insiders selections to mirror TSP Live performance.
Here’s why…
TSP Insiders selections, provided outside TSP Live (either free or paid), that have Hermes A.I. scores above 30 are tracked separately (see Hermes Records) from the Hermes A.I. performance for releases WITHIN TSP Live.
TSP Portfolio will not use Insiders plays, so no edge is missed by skipping them.
If TSP Insiders selections aren’t in your budget right now, no worries—you won’t miss anything essential for mirroring TSP Live performance. You’re just passing on a few extra winners. Keep grinding, stay disciplined, and in time your bankroll will grow to make adding them an easy decision.
🔧 NEW: Profitability Calculator
Curious if your subscription is worth it? Try The Sharp Plays new Net Profit Calculator:
🔢 Input:
Monthly subscription cost plus any extra monthly costs you want included for analysis
Avg. projected monthly unit profit (3 is highly conservative, see note below)
Your per unit wager
📊 Output: Your net gambling profit per month after fees.
👉 Use +3 units/month profit as your baseline. The Sharp Plays has never done worse than an average of 5 units/month in any year over the last 15 years that TSP content has existed. So, if the math works at 3 units/month for you, everything above is a bonus!
🧠 Final Thoughts
Let’s be honest—price hikes aren’t fun. But The Sharp Plays isn’t a hobby. This is a real business, competing head-to-head with billion-dollar sportsbooks armed with elite tech and near endless resources.
To stay in the Top 1% of professional bettors, year after year, takes more than just sharp instincts. It requires real financial backing—to maintain our edge, stay ahead of evolving technology, and continually grow our source and intel network.
If The Sharp Plays ran like most of the industry, it’d be cheap—because all we’d need is a coin to flip…and then we would WOW you with fancy marketing, current hot run highlights and shiny other things…just not actual long-term and profitable performance.
Here’s what you get at The Sharp Plays that most services CAN’T deliver:
✔️ Industry-leading performance with a Top 1% ROI—15 years running! ✔️ 30+ years of high-level experience in sports gambling ✔️ Strategic discipline built on long-term success ✔️ Constant innovation, not stagnant systems ✔️ World-class analytics, driven by Hermes Elite A.I.—the best-performing A.I. in sports betting ✔️ No hype or hard selling, just transparent performance you can audit yourself each day…then decide ✔️ A community that makes it fun—sharing the sweat, celebrating the wins, and riding the highs and lows together
🤝 Thank You (Can’t Repeat This Enough)
Your continued support makes all this possible. Without it, The Sharp Plays wouldn’t exist — at least not in the form you see today.
Thank you for taking the time to review the above. Myself and the rest of the TSP crew are fired up for the football season ahead and look forward to having you as part of the TSP Army—as we get back to work and exact revenge after one of the most public football seasons in the last 20 years!
Good luck to us, and let’s cash some tickets! 💪 🔥 Remember, Daddy needs the G700! ✈️ 😉
If June taught you anything heading into football season, let it be this: 👉 Patience is your fucking edge against the book.
June wasn’t easy. It wasn’t smooth. We had to grind. Pass. Stay disciplined. But those who stuck it out with The Sharp Plays were rewarded:
📊 TSP Portfolio: +3.09%
🤖 Hermes Elite A.I.: +6.37%
💥 Combined: +9.46%
This is what real, professional sports betting looks like. Not constant highs. Not fantasyland. It’s about managing the lows like a savage, staying in the game, and collecting when the heat rolls back around.
❄️ Cold Streaks Are the Entry Fee for Being Elite
Let’s rewind. From late November 2024 through February 2025, TSP Portfolio took a dive.
📉 In 2024, from a +94% or +94 unit high in mid-November to +75% or +75 units by year-end
📉 Then another -10.4% in Jan–Feb 2025
That’s when the weak tapped out. That’s when the aspiring “pros” started whining. That’s when people said, “Maybe this isn’t for me.”
But I’ve been doing this 30+ years. I knew what was coming.
🌤️ Then the Sun Came Out
From March to now?
🚀 TSP Portfolio +33.68% or +33.68 units 📈 All losses since late November 2024 have been erased AND… 🎯 +4.68% or +4.68 units in profit on top…AND THAT’S JUST TSP PORTFOLIO 🤖 Hermes 2025 YTD: Additional +54.60% or +54.60 units on top of it all!
But this piece isn’t about Hermes. This is about patience. This is about TSP Portfolio, on its own, delivering like a savage—if you just gave it time.
Oh—and we’re now just 1.49 units away from the lifetime all-time high profit mark in TSP Portfolio (achieved earlier this month). That’s right. Not just the 2025 high… all-time.
And guess what? I called this in late December:
“Just be patient. I don’t know how or when, but these losses will come back to us… with profit on top. Some will quit before that happens, but that’s sad because it’ll happen!”
📢 That’s exactly what happened.
👶 This Game Ain’t for Babies
This isn’t a fairytale. This is gambling at the highest level.
You wanna call yourself a professional sports bettor? You better learn how to handle the ice-cold months without melting.
If everyone could win, I’d just pay someone else $999/month and go sip cocktails at 11 a.m. like many veteran TSP Live subscribers! But they can’t. So I do this shit myself—and invite you to the party.
🧊 Remember the Freeze, Celebrate the Fire
In the middle of the cold streak, how’d you feel?
Frustrated? Ready to quit? Now zoom out and look where we are. How do you feel today looking at TSP Portfolio performance, Hermes Elite A.I. performance (selections, Value Plays, content, etc.)?!?!?!?!?!?!
If you blew your bankroll back in December, that was your choice. If you stayed patient, stayed disciplined, you’re FAR richer today—and not just in units.
You earned wisdom. You earned experience. You earned your fucking stripes!
💬 Haters love to point to the 2019 Robin Hood Club. You know what? So do I.
To them, it was a failure. To me? It was one of the greatest comeback stories in TSP history.
Those who stuck through that 19-unit drawdown—the withering cold—didn’t just survive… they thrived. They’re now among the best-performing TSP clients of all time—earning back 30, 40, even 50+ times what they lost.
That’s what this game is. Not fairy tale “easy wins.” It’s weathering storms until the sun shows up—and then knowing exactly what to do when it does.
🎯 Final Word: Pros Think Long-Term
Short-term? This shit can feel chaotic. But long-term? It’s math. It’s method. It’s margins. We GRIND!
📅 15 years of consistent, transparent, top-tier performance 🎯 Top 1% among sharp bettors—not just any bettors, the best
You want to be elite? Then act like it when shit gets tough.
It’s not a matter of if the profits come. It’s a matter of when.
So next time it’s cold… ❄️ Bundle up, shut the fuck up, and ride it out. Because the heat always comes back.
Let The Sharp Plays Cook! Wolf, Tony, TSP, Hermes Elite A.I.
Every year from May through August, The Sharp Plays undergoes core operational upgrades to prepare for the football season. Some updates were brainstormed as far back as September and fine-tuned over time. Others are inspired on the fly as this process goes along. Below is a detailed look at key changes—with full transparency.
🔄 Initial Operational Changes
✅ denotes upgrades or changes that have completed
1. Telegram Channel Consolidation ✅
TSP Insiders Channel merged into TSP War Room (May 29th)
TSP Twitter/X Clone Channel also merged (June 1st)
All content now centralized via TSP War Room Telegram Channel
TSP Live Radar, KBC Consensus, and Book Needs tables are now inside the Hermes Elite A.I. table. You can see these on the table now.
However, these tools are football-specific and will appear “OFFLINE” until late August
3. Podcast Relaunch
Go Fast and Win podcast returns August through April
Updates to the website and new episodes will launch in August 2025
4. Streamlined TSP Live Alerts ✅
Alerts now focus strictly on high-level (30+) Hermes A.I. content, TSP Portfolio, and Degenerates Corner
Lower-tier content (like TSP Insider leans and low/mid-level intel not covered in the Degenerates Corner) now moves to Telegram/Twitter.
On days with a lot of high-tier content, more of the lower-tier content will shift to Telegram to keep TSP Live alerts focused and uncluttered. Conversely, on slower days with no high-tier plays/angles, more lower-tier content will be delivered exclusively to TSP Live subscribers…and Telegram will be quieter.
5. General Website Maintenance
Seasonal housekeeping updates to refresh outdated or retired content across all TSP platforms/websites. I apologize for any down-time or pages/features being offline for maintenance from time to time.
6. Hermes Upgrade to Version 2.0 (currently running Version 1.6) ✅
Hermes is scheduled for a major upgrade in July. While the system will remain online throughout the process, there may be brief periods of downtime—potentially a few hours at a time—as the new version is built in the background.
This upgrade will transition Hermes from version 1.6 to version 2.0. The new version will be trained using all the data, analysis, and tracking collected to date, enabling improved performance and smarter decision-making going forward.
7. Full Access to TSP Insiders (NEW – 6/19/25)
You asked, we listened: Many of you want full access to all TSP Insider plays (Wolf, Tony, etc.) — and you want the choice to buy what you want, when you want it.
🧩 The challenge:
Wolf has direct, long-time clients (20+ years) on a “pay after you win” model.
To honor those relationships, he won’t charge them for a play he gives free to TSP.
Some Insider picks come just 30 minutes before game time — tough to post in time for purchase.
💡 What we’re exploring:
Dynamic pricing — cold streak? Picks may go for $5. Hot streak? Higher prices reflect demand.
Everyone gets access. You control what to buy, with pricing that adjusts to performance.
Motivates Insiders to stay sharp and rewards loyal followers.
Pay After You Win option, but has to have a tweak due to potential collection issues.
🚫 No monthly subscriptions:
Wolf might only release 2–3 bets a month…other months 15-20.
Charging a set monthly fee is fine in high volume months, but not in low volume months — especially if the picks lose.
🏈 Coming for football season:
A new solution is in the works for full access to all Insider plays…every day and every play.
Until then, enjoy free Group Moves and select paid plays via TSP.Live.
While the current list of updates isn’t long, more upgrades and improvements will roll out in the coming weeks. Behind the scenes, dozens of backend and operational enhancements—like clerical adjustments and infrastructure tweaks—are already underway to keep everything optimized. As new, noticeable changes go live, I’ll add them to the numbered list above, mark them with “(NEW – Date Posted)”, and post an alert in the TSP War Room Telegram Channelwith a link to this page so you can easily stay up to date.
⚠️ About Feedback
Feedback is welcome, but understand this:
If your feedback is just about making your experience better and not TSP overall, it won’t be prioritized.
Example: Some people complain when I get “verbose” on Telegram—meaning a few extra messages to the channel on certain days. Reality? Most days have 5–7 alerts. Occasionally, sure, it might hit 10+.
Sometimes I’m bored, sometimes I’m having fun with the TSP audience. Such instances might mean an extra 1–3 messages. It’s rare. If that’s too much for you, unsubscribe—but let’s be real, you won’t.
You may not love how I run things. But nobody outperforms The Sharp Plays—and 15 years of results prove it.
The numbers. Do. Not. Lie.
So if this level of performance isn’t worth putting up with a few extra alerts or my attempt at comedy/fun here and there, that’s on you.
If you leave to prove a point—go ahead. You’re just sabotaging your own betting performance.
Me? I’ll be fine. So will the rest of the TSP Army who aren’t wet noodles.
💵 Pricing Updates (TSP Live & TSP Insiders)
Pricing…the topic nobody likes. It’s long, but it’s because I want to be transparent about the thought process and analysis given the sensitivity of this topic. So, rather just give you TSP’s biased view, I asked ChatGPT to evaluate the fair pricing based on actual performance. The following, except the parts where you see “TSP:” is generated 100% from the ChatGPT analysis of the queries presented.
ChatGPT Query:
TSP:“What is the fair monthly cost for a sports handicapping service called TSP Live that offers two products that subscribers can access and which carry the stated performance:
TSP Portfolio: +15.70% lifetime ROI on risk (1770+ wagers), 12.08% ROI for 2025 (301 wagers)
Hermes Elite A.I.: +48.23% bankroll gain, 11.07% lifetime ROI on risk, +23.36% on 40+ scores, 450 wagers and all in 2025″
📊 Performance Recap (2025 Data)
TSP Portfolio: 301 wagers, 12.08% ROI = $3,637 profit at $100/unit
Hermes Elite A.I.: 450 wagers, 11.07% ROI = $4,982 profit at $100/unit
Combined Expected Value = $8,619 profit in under 5 months for $100 bettors, also supported by long-term data beyond 2025.
📊 Market Comparison
Service
Price
Notes
Dr. Bob
$599/month
NFL & NCAA football/basketball only, no AI, lower ROI.
Don Best
$499/month
Odds feed, no selections
Spank Odds
$699/month
Odds feed, no selections
TSP Live
???
All major US & International Sports, AI-driven, elite ROI
TSP: I think Dr. Bob is one of the few honest people in this business and I respect him for that because it is so rare. His mention above should not be somehow seen as derogatory toward him or his pricing. If I wanted to be derogatory, there are countless others I could add to ChatGPT’s table.
⚖️ Fair Monthly Price Recommendations
Plan Type
Price Range
Rationale
Standard Monthly
$399–$599/month
Justified by ROI and betting volume
📌 ChatGPT Conclusion
You’re delivering: Multi-year consistency Multiple high-yield systems A professional A.I. tool rivaling (and beating) industry software [TSP: Thanks ChatGPT…I appreciate it!] A content stream that aligns with professional-level sports intelligence
✅ $499/month is the sweet spot – elite performance at a fraction of its delivered financial value.
🌟 TSP Insiders Pricing Analysis
ChatGPT Query:
TSP: Question 1: “I’m curious, what qualifies someone to be in the Top 1% of professional sports bettors worldwide?”
Question 2: “Can you create a breakdown of standing based on ROI for sports bettors?”
TSP SIDE NOTE: ChatGPT uses “ROI” in the same way as “Return on Risk,” which is important to understand. A 10% ROI does not mean a 10-unit or 10% bankroll gain—it can actually represent a much larger return. For example, if you place 500 bets at $1,000 each, that’s $500,000 in total risk. With a 10% ROI (a.k.a. Return on Risk), you’d earn $50,000 in profit. Assuming your unit size is $1,000, this suggests a $100,000 bankroll, and a 10% ROI would equate to a 50% gain on your bankroll ($50,000)—not just 10%.
ChatGPT Response (Question 1): These bettors are often tracking at 55%+ win rates on standard -110 lines over years of data—translating to +3% to +7% ROI or more, which is exceptional in this space.
ChatGPT Response (Question 2):
🏆 Sports Bettor ROI Tiers (Long-Term Performance)
TSP: Which tier are you—or perhaps “were” you?
Tier
ROI Range
Performance Summary
Typical Traits
🔝 Top 1% – Elite Pro
+5% or more
Extremely rare. Beating the market efficiently over time. Likely using modeling, market access, syndicate intel, or automation.
Strong closing line value, disciplined bankroll use, low volume/high accuracy. Syndicate or high-stakes pro.
💼 Top 5% – Sharp Pro
+2% to +5%
Long-term profitable, typically full-time or semi-pro. Likely betting high volume with disciplined process.
Uses data, betting tools, possibly sells picks or runs a service. May avoid popular markets.
📈 Top 10% – Skilled Bettor
+1% to +2%
Profitable after juice, beats market inconsistently but has edge. Could become pro with scaling.
Good discipline, some closing line value, maybe focused on niche markets. Often supplementing income.
📊 Top 25% – Breakeven or Slight Edge
0% to +1%
Could beat the market, but profits are minimal or eaten by vig. Often one good tweak away from sharp success.
Casual sharp, good intuition but lacks a full edge or consistency.
🌀 The Middle – Losing, But Close
-1% to 0%
Majority of active bettors fall here. Losing slowly over time—often due to small leaks or poor market selection.
Lacks discipline, chases bets, bets popular games or odds.
🧨 Bottom 50% – Rec Bettors
-1% to -10%
Betting for entertainment, not profit. Often loses to juice or overbets favorites, parlays, or props.
Losing rapidly. Likely chasing losses or has no betting framework.
No bankroll strategy, no tracking, often addicted to the rush.
⚠️ ChatGPT Notes:
These ROI figures assume standard -110 markets or their EV equivalents.
ROI should always be judged in the context of volume. A +10% ROI on 20 bets is meaningless; +2% ROI on 3,000 bets is elite.
Even Top 1% bettors may end the month negative—variance is real.
TSP: I saved the full chat with ChatGPT, and I swear on everything I hold dear—it was ChatGPT that added the third bullet point about even bettors in the Top 1% experiencing negative months. Many of you are laughing because it’s something I say constantly in that I always try to get bettors to understand: no matter how skilled you are, no one avoids losing streaks—whether it’s a rough day, a tough week, or even a down month. It’s just part of the game. Not accepting “betting reality” as I refer to it will only be a detriment to your success!
TSP:Wolf & Tony have a +9.9% ROI over 231 wagers, TSP Portfolio holds a +15.7% ROI over 1776 wagers, Hermes A.I. holds a +11.27% ROI over 453 wagers.Yes, ELITE Pro – Top 1%!
ChatGPT Query:
TSP: “If two professionals bettors combine for a +9.9% ROI over 231 wagers for the last 9 months and sell their selections to clients, what would be a fair price per selection given this level of performance?”
ChatGPT Response: A combined +9.9% ROI absolutely qualifies as Top 1% performance.
If that ROI is sustained over hundreds of wagers, it reflects sharp modeling, disciplined execution, and consistent value—whether it’s from one individual or a team.
💰 Per-Selection Fair Pricing
Tier
Quality
Price Per Pick
Low
Unverified, weak ROI
$5–$15
Mid
2–4% ROI
$15–$25
High
5%+ ROI, verified
$30–$50
Elite
9.9% ROI (TSP Insiders)
$50–$100
~~~ END OF CHATGPT ANALYSIS ~~~
TSP: Everything below is now The Sharp Plays text and content, ChatGPT was allowed to go on break at this point. It did a great job!
💬 So, What Will Pricing Be for 2025–26?
Honestly? I don’t know yet. But here’s where we’ve been—and where we are now:
Current: TSP Live $179.99/month – TSP Insiders $15-$25/selection
2019: $200/month — for just 8 picks per month
2020: Dropped to $149.99 to entice people to test a monthly subscription w/daily content
2022: Increased to $159.99
2024: Increased to $179.99
Now, six years later, TSP Live still costs less than it did in 2019, even though the content, tools, techology and performance have grown exponentially.
🎯 Striking the Right Balance
My price goal remains simple:
Keep TSP Live affordable for smaller bettors, while supporting the infrastructure, team, and ongoing expansion and innovation that make this entire operation possible—AND SUCCESSFUL!
Yes, I agree with ChatGPT that TSP Live could easily justify a $499/month price tag based on it’s elite ROI and value…logged over the last 14 years of content!
Yes, Wolf & Tony could realistically charge $50-100 per selection given their elite performance.
But don’t panic—nobody’s pushing pricing to those levels in 2025. I can’t make any guarantees though if we get Venezuelan inflation or devalue the dollar.
This breakdown provides an unbiased, third-party assessment of the service’s value—powered by ChatGPT and grounded in something I trust completely: math. There’s no emotion, no spin—just a logical analysis based on market benchmarks and actual performance results.
⚖️ How TSP Insiders Helps TSP Live Pricing Stay Below Fair Value
I understand some don’t care for the TSP Insiders model because it’s “another purchase” on top of the TSP Live subscription. But here’s the reality:
Those additional selections, provided by independent TSP Insiders, are entirely optional—and they’re a key reason why the TSP Live monthly subscription remains affordable. So far, there haven’t been many paid TSP Insiders plays—averaging just 3 per month—while nearly five times that number have been provided for free. When selections are offered for free, they’re not truly free—TSP Insiders are compensated directly by The Sharp Plays. These Insiders work hard behind the scenes and deserve to be rewarded for helping us all grow our wealth.
Also, TSP Insiders paid selections are no longer a part of TSP Portfolio and they ARE NOT tracked in the TSP Live Hermes A.I. performance numbers. There’s a separate tracking for Hermes A.I. performance for TSP Insiders (TheSharpPlays.com). So, you lose nothing by not participating in them if you follow Hermes and/or Portfolio in TSP Live.
Yes, the volume of paid releases will increase going forward, but that’s driven by customer demand for more access to TSP Insiders’ Group Moves, given the performance, not based on pushing more sales.
TSP Insiders sales allow higher-stakes bettors to contribute more by purchasing individual TSP Insiders selections, without forcing that cost on everyone. It’s a flexible system that benefits all sides—and the additional TSP Insiders revenue keeps access to the TSP Live subscription open to more bettors’ budgets.
📌 Final Word (on Price)
You’ve seen how pricing has changed—slowly and fairly—over six years. Every step has been based on real growth, added content, and increased performance.
Hermes A.I. is by far the most ambitious—and most expensive—project I’ve ever taken on for TSP. Like most large-scale ventures, it’s operating with carried debt due to the lack of revenue generation from Hermes A.I. during the research and development phases (2022-2025), and it has significantly increased monthly technical costs. That said, I think we can agree the early performance proves the investment was a worthwhile gamble. When prices are raised, it’s never about picking anyone’s pocket—it’s about fueling growth and expanding the value of the content.
I’ll share more pricing details in the weeks ahead as I explore ideas and work out budgets. But rest assured:
I’m not looking to blindside you—just build something sustainable and scalable for everyone.
🍀 Closing Thoughts
Yes, this article was long—but it needed to be. My goal is to keep you informed, educated, and prepared, especially on sensitive topics like pricing, where I strive for 100% transparency.
Thank you for being a loyal part of the TSP Army.
The Sharp Plays won’t win every day, week, or month—but over the long haul, the numbers don’t lie. During a cold stretch, it might not feel that way, but over time, the results speak for themselves. Go ahead—look around. You won’t find another platform with 15 years of consistent, high-level performance.
Even ChatGPT labels TSP’s track record as “Elite Pro” level—Top 1% territory.😎 I don’t flex often, but when it comes to this kind of sustained success for The Sharp Plays, I’ll gladly make an exception.
Posted this as an intro to a TSP Live alert on Friday and it got solid reviews, so I am adding it to the education section on TSP.Live for future reference…
🎯 The Hardest Part of Professional Gambling
The hardest part of this journey is not teaching people how to win — it’s getting them not to quit. When gambling stops feeling like easy money, so many bettors just vanish.
Over the past week, I’ve been diving deep into lessons from March, April, and May to show what true professional gambling looks like. Why? Because the real path to success goes against everything most people are taught. Breaking those bad habits and misconceptions is the toughest challenge. But if I can do that with you, you’ll evolve into an exceptional professional bettor…with a healthy income!
💭 The Dream vs. The Reality 💪
The Dream: According to the so-called experts on Twitter/X, Instagram, and TikTok, gambling is easy money. They promise constant best bets, daily locks, and effortless wealth. You’re urged to buy multiple picks at $29.99 each per day or sign up for a $399 or $599/month package — all sold by people who haven’t posted a winning year in their lives.
Their credentials? Maybe a handicapping contest win from 2007 or 2015. And forget about transparency. These services never maintain a public daily log AND daily compiled records like The Sharp Plays does — because doing so would expose their inconsistencies and lack of real performance!
Some services will let you pull previous selections, but they avoid compiling the actual results for one reason: they know most people won’t take the time to do it themselves. They pretend to be transparent by allowing access to all previous selections, but without compiled records (LONG-TERM RECORDS…not just current season or last 30 days) of all those previous selections, it’s meaningless. They’re counting on your laziness — that you won’t run the numbers, and you’ll just assume their performance is solid because the past plays are “available.”
Let’s be clear: transparency means nothing without accountability.
If a service dazzles you with flash but won’t show you detailed long-term records — meaning performance across past seasons and years, not just a cherry-picked month or a single season — AND daily logs of ALL their action that you can independently track and audit, they have something to hide!!! A real pro doesn’t hide the data. If someone’s legit — like The Sharp Plays — they want you to see the records and the logs of EVERYTHING…every year and every wager! That’s the difference between a seller of dreams and a provider of results. I flex on my results — I put my dick on display each day because I want you to see how big it is, not just talk about it and stuff a sock in my pants hoping you’ll trust me on what I’m packing.
The Reality: When I explain how this business actually works — backed by 26 years of experience and 15 straight public winning years since launching the content in 2011 — people push back. It doesn’t fit the fantasy they bought into years ago from the pick sellers and hype machines. They want easy money, fast cars, private jets, $100K bets, and guaranteed wins.
But real success? It isn’t flashy. It’s methodical. It’s disciplined. It’s long-term.
And yes — the fast cars, private jet access, and six-figure wagers? Those come too… but only with time. When I started out betting in high school I was betting $5 a game. Dropping $100 felt like putting a million on the line.
Today? I’m living the dream. Dedication, time, and relentless effort got me here — and it can get you here too.
It might sound over the top, but as I write this and think back to those days grinding for an edge in my bedroom at my parents’ house in high school, and then fast forward to where I am now… I get emotional. I never imagined I’d make it this far — but I did.
And here’s the truth: I’m nobody special. I didn’t come from millions. I didn’t have a head start. Every break I got, I earned…and I accepted failures and got back up. This isn’t some overnight success story — it’s a story of persistence, belief, and refusing to quit.
🔍 Trust the Process
Here’s what I hope you’ve learned these past three months:
Trust the process. Even if it’s not flashy, it’s proven and time-tested — 26 years professionally and 15 years publicly… with winners every year.
My style may be unconventional — rollovers, parlays, passing multiple days at a time, and more — but it works. Let’s not fix what’s not broken.
We will have losing days, weeks, and even months. But discipline and consistency lead to long-term profits.
❌ LOSERS QUIT!
After January and February, some quit. TSP Portfolio was down 15%/units for 2025, and Hermes A.I. wasn’t on fire yet. So they gave up. Why? The money wasn’t fast enough or easy enough.
But those who stayed now see Hermes A.I. climb to +48.11%/unit bankroll growth and TSP Portfolio reach +20.15%/unit bankroll growth in 2025. Combined? Aggressive followers have experienced +68.26%/unit bankroll growth in just five months as of today. That’s the reward for patience.
🧠 Are You Really Following the Plan?
If you’re thinking, “I’m not up +68.26%/units,” ask yourself:
Did you change your strategy?
Did you follow someone else?
Did you add your own bets not part of the system?
That’s likely why your results are different. Consistency is everything. Stick to the plan and the results will come. Audit your action with the daily logs at TheSharpPlays.com.
No matter how good the content does again for this year, I will undoubtedly hear from several people wondering how they managed to lose money during what will once again be a winning year for the TSP Portfolio and Hermes A.I.
They often say:
“I followed everything! How did I still lose?”
But the truth is, most didn’t actually follow everything—and that’s where the disconnect begins. Let’s break down the common traps.
🚨 Trap #1: Strategy Hopping
Many bettors can’t resist the temptation to chase the hot hand. When the TSP Portfolio or Hermes A.I. has a rough week, they abandon ship and jump to another handicapper who happens to be hot. But timing is cruel—you usually catch the cold streak of the new system right after abandoning the one about to turn hot.
❗ Important Reminder: The Sharp Plays content has been public since 2011—15 years without a losing year!
Still, gamblers expect perfection:
No losing months
No losing weeks
Not even a bad day
That’s just not how professional gambling works. And those unrealistic expectations lead to bad decision-making.
💸 Trap #2: Bankroll Mismanagement
Even those who stick with the right service often fall into another pit: poor bankroll management.
Here’s the truth:
📊 Bankroll management matters more than your win percentage.
You can have a sub-52% win rate and still be profitable if you know when to press and when to scale back. Most gamblers do the opposite:
Press during cold runs
Tighten during hot streaks
The result? Losses pile up even when the core strategy wins overall.
🎯 Trap #3: Betting Detours
Another mistake is straying from the plan. For example:
You follow the TSP Portfolio…
But suddenly throw down on the Yankees because “there’s no way they lose”
Then toss in a UFC fighter bet for fun
You lose 3 units while TSP Live might have been up 3 units—you turned a winning day into a breakeven or losing one. Those “just this once” bets can snowball over time.
✅ Pro Tip: Keep a separate bankroll for recreational or “hunch” bets, or limit them to small stakes—pizza money style. It scratches the itch without tanking your long-term profitability.
🤔 Trap #4: Overanalyzing – Trust the Data, Not Just Your Instincts
A common mistake among bettors using TSP content is deviating from the suggested strategy. It’s tempting to think you know better—and maybe sometimes you do—but more often, straying leads to underperformance.
The Hermes A.I. system is built on data-driven base wager risk levels, based on the score:
30–39: 1.00% of bankroll
40–49: 1.25%
50–59: 1.50%
60–69: 2.00%
70–79: 3.00%
80–89: 4.00%
90–100: 5.00%
You can find the full Hermes A.I. details anytime at TSP.Live/hermes.
The TSP Portfolio makes it even easier—each play includes the risk level right there with it.
Of course, you’re free to bet however you like: wager more, less, not at all, or even fade the picks. But understand—deviating from the TSP strategy means deviating from TSP’s performance. It’s your call, but the system is built on stats, not emotion. Follow the framework if you want to stay aligned with the results.
📉 The Harsh Reality: Most Bettors Aren’t Profitable
People love to believe they’re winning gamblers. But when they log every wager honestly, the truth usually surfaces—and it’s not pretty.
If you’re not tracking your action, you’re gambling blind.
🎉 What Sets Winners Apart
So when year-end rolls around and you see the celebration posts, but your bankroll doesn’t reflect that joy…check these things:
Did you follow the system consistently?
Did you manage your bankroll like a pro?
Did you avoid side bets that added risk and noise?
If not, there’s still time to adjust. Let’s finish the year strong—together.
🤑 Good luck to us!
The day after the above article was published, I followed it up with additional commentary. The commentary fit with the above and got very positive reviews, so I figured I would include it with this article as well. I hope you enjoy…
🎢 The Grind is Real
Up on Monday, down on Tuesday—welcome to the grind, my degenerate friends! This is the phase where professional bettors separate themselves from action junkies and perpetual losers. It’s what I discussed yesterday in my article: 👉 A TSP Year-End Mystery: Why Did I Lose?
🌟 When It’s Good, It’s Great
We all love those hot streaks like March and April, where everything seems to go right. And guess what? We’ll have more months like that before 2025 wraps up.
But the real question is: How well do you manage yourself during the cold runs or sideways grinds while waiting for the next hot streak?
💸 If It Were Easy, Everyone Would Be Rich
Let’s face it—if gambling printed money daily, it would be boring (but hey, we’d live with it 😆). Still, the ups and downs are part of the entertainment…and what make the hot runs so euphoric.
That said, I cannot stress this enough—and it ties back to the article linked above:
The reason The Sharp Plays content has had 15 straight winning years since launching in 2011, and sportsbooks are still in business, is simple: even when given winning content, most gamblers still lose.
Why? Because they lack the discipline to:
Accept losing days, weeks and months
Avoid pressing or chasing
Stick with a consistent strategy
📉 Cold Streak? Don’t Panic—Pause
If the content is cold, it’s OK to pass. Don’t chase. Don’t switch strategies out of desperation.
Wait for the TSP Index to trend upward, then jump back in if you’re not comfortable riding the storm. Yes, you may miss a few winners, but if you only bet during uptrends, and The Sharp Plays ends the year winning—you’ll be just fine too.
If you’re thinking, “Wait, TSP—you said to be consistent, and now you’re saying only bet during uptrends?”—you’re absolutely right. That is a consistent strategy. It’s just a different one from what TSP Live will be doing.
Only betting when the TSP Index is in an uptrend is a disciplined, mathematical approach. Yes, your results may differ from the full-year TSP performance, but historically, this method will still have you finishing well in the green by year’s end.
You can track the Index on the Hermes A.I. table—it’s:
Linked at the top of every alert on TSP Live
Accessible at TheSharpPlays.com by clicking “Index” in the site menu
This approach won’t eliminate all losing streaks, but it does reduce their frequency. If you find yourself struggling with self-control or emotional betting swings, this strategy helps protect your bankroll from…you.
🧠 Master the Mental Game
Gambling can be simple—if you get out of your own head. Stick to a strategy. Manage your bankroll. Stay disciplined.
How do I know? Because that’s what I do. My income doesn’t come from The Sharp Plays—it comes from my own professional gambling, which you see reflected in the content.
📆 Consistency is Key (Even in Losing Months)
Yes, there will be losing months ahead. And yes, as a subscriber, that means paying for a losing month—and then coming right back to pay again next month.
Sound like sales talk? Maybe. But it’s also the truth.
We don’t know in advance which months will be hot or cold. What we do know is this:
15 straight years of healthy annual profit have rewarded those with patience, consistency, and proper bankroll discipline.
There will be times when you lose in January, lose in February, and then come right back in March—only to see the content crush it. It’s tempting to think, “Why not just pay during the winning months?”
But let’s be real: What would that even look like? Charging $0 for losing months and $500 for winning ones? In the end, it would average out to about the same as the current $179.99 per month—just dressed up to make some people feel better.
Like the gambling itself, pricing and content delivery are consistent. Unfortunately, not every subscriber is.
There are people who didn’t like the results in December or January, so they skipped February, March, and April—and missed out on massive profits.
If you’re going to be a TSP Live subscriber, commit through the ups and downs. Or don’t subscribe at all. No hard feelings—just be consistent, whatever your choice.
I truly appreciate everyone who supports this grind, and I’ll always do everything I can to help you succeed. But I also recognize that this path isn’t for everyone—and that’s OK.
Just be honest with yourself. Know your limits. Self-awareness is one of the most underrated tools in a gambler’s arsenal.
🍽️ Final Bite of Food for Thought
This grind isn’t for everyone—but if you can respect the process, control your impulses, and ride the waves with clarity and consistency, the rewards are there. Every year.
The following was originally posted in mid-April and is now being updated based on where things stand now and added to the ‘Education’ section on TSP.Live for future reference…
TSP Insiders Purchases Moving to TSP.Live
A new update is coming to streamline how you purchase selections from TSP Insiders, starting with Tony The Bookie and the new MLB addition to the TSP Insiders team. Wolf’s sales will remain at his WHOP of AnalyticsWolf.com.
Instead of going through TSPInsiders.com directly, you’ll purchase Tony’s selections the same way you subscribe to TSP Live packages…via TSP.Live/register. Simply visit the “Subscribe” link in the menu, where you’ll find an option labeled “TSP INSIDERS SELECTION – Tony The Bookie.”
⚠️⚠️ Note: There is no active selection available right now via the above method—this is just a heads-up on how the process will work. ⚠️⚠️ I expect to test this setup with a live selection this coming week.
How It Will Work:
Visit the “Subscribe” link in the TSP.Live website menu.
Choose the TSP Insiders selection from the list of available subscriptions.
Complete your payment through the familiar TSP.Live checkout system.
After payment, you’ll be redirected to view the play. (If you aren’t redirected, just visit TSP.Live/tspinsiders, login if you aren’t already, and the play will be accessible at that link for anyone who purchased.)
Wolf’s picks will still be processed via WHOP, because that is where he does all his processing for his direct clients, but all other TSP Insider plays will go through TSP.Live moving forward.
TSPInsiders.com will remain fully functional, but clicking the “Purchase” link in the website menu (starting shortly) will direct you to TSP.Live for a listing of any available plays and the ability to checkout.
Why the Change?
This update allows a single login for both TSP Live and TSP Insiders purchases/access…simplifying access and improving user experience. Previously, the TSP Live platform didn’t support this functionality, but a recent software upgrade made it possible.
Those of you with TSP Insiders Wallets, there will be a system on TSPInsiders.com to easily login and purchase using wallet funds. The TSP Insiders Wallet will be phased out. Those of you will crypto purchases for TSP Insiders will be given an alternate option for easy access/purchasing.
The purpose of this article is to familiarize you with Hermes, an advanced betting analytics platform from The Sharp Plays (TSP). We’ll explore its origin, current capabilities, rollout roadmap, and future evolution. Plus, we’ll touch on the real-world challenges and considerations that come with managing such a dynamic tool.
🧬 Origins of Hermes
Hermes was first launched in November 2021 and ran until early 2023. Despite overall profitability, it had issues—most notably, speed. At 25–30 seconds per analysis, Hermes lagged in live betting environments where every second counts. So, it was sent back into R&D to be re-engineered for sub-3-second performance.
Why the name “Hermes”? In Greek mythology, Hermes is the god of gambling, luck, wealth, and trickery—also the messenger of the gods. A perfect metaphor: Hermes is our messenger between the betting markets and sharp bettors.
🚀 Hermes 2.0 and the AI Revolution
Major advances in AI during 2023 and 2024 gave new life to the project. With heavy investments in hardware, data subscriptions, and AI programming, Hermes was reintroduced in December 2024 to TSP Live subscribers.
After some final testing and infrastructure upgrades, Hermes Pro officially went live on January 13, 2025.
Since then, Hermes has:
Issued 150+ high-quality selections
Tackled obscure markets like Costa Rican and Argentinian soccer
Delivered win rates and ROI exceeding expectations
Highlighted unique betting angles and sharp money overlaps
🧠 What Can Hermes Do?
Hermes isn’t just a pick generator—it’s a fully dynamic betting assistant:
🧮 Generates and ranks plays based on score thresholds
📡 Detects patterns among sharp betting groups
📊 Analyzes data and odds to create implied probabilities
🔁 Self-audits its own performance to improve quality
💡 Answers betting questions in seconds (e.g., “Who’s the best bettor on Getafe games?”)
It can even deliver real-time alerts on market shifts, sharp moves, prop bets, and group buys—automatically.
Operates under tight parameters for risk and sizing
Mission: Grow house money for aggressive end-of-year plays
📅 Month 3 (Mar Madness – Mid-April)
Hermes issues automated alerts
Moves closer to full autonomy
📅 May – August
Hermes continues as Director of Trading
Receives upgrades to prep for football season dominance
⚙️ Hermes as the New Command Center
Over time, Hermes will fully absorb and manage:
✅ TSP Live Radar
✅ KB Consensus
✅ Book Needs
✅ Group Buys
All those legacy analytics are now integrated into Hermes. When an alert-worthy condition is met—Hermes will notify you.
⚠️ Challenges to Consider
📌 Analysis Paralysis
With so much data, you might freeze instead of act. That’s where my experience comes in—I curate and filter the firehose of information.
📌 Financial Sustainability
Hermes requires:
Data subscriptions 📚
Server infrastructure 🖥️
Developer support 🧑💻
To keep TSP Live prices stable through 2025, a small percentage (≈10%) of Hermes content will be packaged with TSP Insiders. But rest assured:
💯 All TSP Portfolio plays will be in TSP Live or posted free
🧮 90%+ of Hermes content will remain part of TSP Live
No gouging. Just practical monetization.
🤝 Final Thoughts: A Team Effort
Hermes is a game-changer, but like anything powerful, it must be used wisely. Set betting limits, avoid overextension, and trust the process.
You now understand:
📖 Hermes’s origin and goals
🧠 Its core functions
🛠️ The staged rollout and future roadmap
🧩 Challenges and how we’ll solve them
💵 Transparent pricing and content distribution
Thank you for making Hermes possible. If you have feedback—constructive or curious—I welcome it. Just give me a little time to respond as I sort through the inbox post-launch.
Let’s all cash in together. Good luck in your action! 🍀
