Category: TSP Live Education

bookmark_border2025 Pricing & Subscription Update

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🎯 The Goal of the Price Changes

Sustain elite performance, cover rising costs, and avoid an increase in 2026.

If Winning Were Easy…

…everyone would do it.
…I’d just pay $999/month to someone else and chill.
But no such service exists.
That’s why The Sharp Plays was built, why I am here — and why you’re here reading this.

Hermes Elite A.I. was launched January 13th, and here’s how it’s done:

  • 📈 +55.35 units profit across 482 wagers
  • 💰 +10.60% Return on Risk (“ROR”) for all plays
  • 💥 +22.18% ROR for plays with scores ≥ 40

🔥 TSP Portfolio in 2025?
+22.17% bankroll gain, +9.72% ROR — and that’s considered a “slow year”!

None of this is fluff. These are logged and documented results for the core content of TSP Live…every play delivered to you in TSP Live!

🏆 Over 95% of my income comes from my personal wagering & investments — not TSP.
Your subscription covers the cost of winning, not my lifestyle.

💵 New Pricing (Effective August 28th, 2025)

  • TSP Live Monthly (Calendar Month): $249.99 ($8.06/day)
  • TSP Live Football Season (6 months): $1,250 (save ~$250 — one month free)
  • TSP Live Annual (12 months): $2,499.99 (save ~$500 — two months free)
  • TSP Live 7-Day Pass: $59.99 (up from $54.99 — $8.57/day)

For comparison, a 12 count of grilled nuggets at Chick-Fil-A is $8.99. TSP Live is cheaper ($8.06 per day), a lot more fun, and puts money INTO your pocket after enjoying it!

📈 How the New Prices Were Decided

📊 First, I base pricing on:

  • Real operating costs
  • Expected subscriber count
  • Long-term investment and reinvestment expectations
  • Market prices…except 98% of the rest of the market loses you money (see Deadspin article below)
  • And yes, a reasonable profit (because otherwise, what’s the point of this level of effort?)

Second, I did a deep dive into performance and inflation data—assisted a ChatGPT (linked here & above).

  • In 2019, TSP paid content cost $200/month…and was nowhere near as comprehensive as it is today.
  • Adjusted for inflation, that would be $247/month in today’s dollars.
  • ChatGPT’s analysis, based on performance, found a fair market value for TSP Live of $499/month.

The goal is not to pick pockets, but elite performance demands real, ongoing investment. It takes serious resources to operate at this level—a level that consistently outperforms 99.99% of sports services/handicappers and 99% of professional bettors alike. That’s not hype—it’s backed by math and actual performance data.

I’ll refer you back to the analysis Deadspin did on Pregame.com, which showed that out of 49 handicappers/services, only one showed a profit over time after fees…and that profit was only +3.3 units. In 2024, using the same $100 per unit Deadspin assessment, The Sharp Plays would have returned a profit of $5,675…or +56.75 units AFTER FEES…and that’s just on TSP Portfolio! So far, 2025 is blowing last year’s number away thanks to the launch of Hermes Elite A.I. in January!

Show me someone who outperforms The Sharp Plays, documents it publicly for full transparency, continually evolves with the latest tech, and has done it for 15 years straight. I’ll wait. 😎

🔍 Who Is TSP Live For?

Anytime I have ever been asked, my response has been that TSP Live is best suited for bettors wagering $250+ per unit. Of course, even $50/unit bettors can turn a good profit given TSP Live’s strong and consistent performance, but optimal value comes at the $250/unit mark.

I advise using a conservative average of +3 units/month for profit projection/analysis, even though:

  • 📊 The 15-year TSP history has never seen a year average less than +5.0 units/month.
  • 📅 2024 had the lowest recent performance but still delivered +6.25 units/month.
  • 📅 2025 is on pace for +11.0 units/month (YTD) on Hermes A.I. & TSP Portfolio.

Using a +3 unit per month average ensures your ROI expectations are well grounded so that anything above 3 units is pure gravy…and that’s where we expect to be!

🤖 About The Performance Math

  • Hermes A.I. (launched 1/13/25): Averaging +7.9 units/month.
  • TSP Portfolio (launched 1/1/23): Averaging +3.1 units/month.
  • At $250/unit, your breakeven moves from 0.72 units/month to 1 unit/month with the new price. That’s 12 units/year of profit needed to break even…TSP Portfolio & Hermes average +11.0 units/MONTH
    Even the conservative +3 units/month = +36 units/year = already +24 units above break-even!
  • Example: In 2024, a year without Hermes, TSP Portfolio gained +75 units. Subtracting the new $249/month fee (~1 unit/month = 12 units/year) = +63 unit profit AFTER fees for 2024…based on 2025 pricing.

👉 The Sharp Plays does the work. You collect the checks. Think of The Sharp Plays as your sports betting agent. Yes, TSP gets a cut of your profits, but where would those profits be without The Sharp Plays content?

🕵️‍♂️ TSP Insiders Selections: Pricing and Purpose

TSP Insiders is a premium add-on, designed for advanced bettors who want even more firepower. Yes, by strong demand over the past few months, and the response for Wolf’s Wimbledon package, ALL Group Moves from TSP Insiders (0-20+ per month) will be available for the TSP audience starting August 1st.

A more aggressive price increase for TSP Insiders selections helps offset costs and allows for a smaller increase in the TSP Live subscription price. It also means Wolf & Tony better BRING IT!

  • New TSP Insiders (Wolf & Tony) Price: $34.99 per selection (was $25.00)
    – TSP Insiders can set their own price, but Wolf and Tony have agreed to this price for 2025 and 2026…other TSP Insiders may set different prices and then the choice is yours whether you want to experience their content.
  • Why? ChatGPT’s fair value range for Wolf & Tony was $50–$100 per pick given the level of performance (again, click here for the full analysis) they deliver. The industry average is around $30 per pick—and let’s be honest, most of the industry loses. TSP Insiders consistently deliver Top 1% performance, and even with the above price increase, remain priced well below fair market value ($50–$100) and priced just above the average—despite performing exponentially above the average handicapper.
  • TSP Insiders Adopts Performance-Based Pricing
    – TSP Insiders will now feature performance-based pricing. The standard cost per pick is $34.99, but if an Insider is running cold, the price could drop as low as $2.99.
    – This model not only gives you better value during downturns, but also motivates each Insider to maintain top-tier performance—because higher success means maintaining the premium price point.

IMPORTANT NOTE: You don’t need TSP Insiders selections to mirror TSP Live performance.

Here’s why…

  • TSP Insiders selections, provided outside TSP Live (either free or paid), that have Hermes A.I. scores above 30 are tracked separately (see Hermes Records) from the Hermes A.I. performance for releases WITHIN TSP Live.
  • TSP Portfolio will not use Insiders plays, so no edge is missed by skipping them.

If TSP Insiders selections aren’t in your budget right now, no worries—you won’t miss anything essential for mirroring TSP Live performance. You’re just passing on a few extra winners. Keep grinding, stay disciplined, and in time your bankroll will grow to make adding them an easy decision.

🔧 NEW: Profitability Calculator

Curious if your subscription is worth it? Try The Sharp Plays new Net Profit Calculator:

🔢 Input:

  • Monthly subscription cost plus any extra monthly costs you want included for analysis
  • Avg. projected monthly unit profit (3 is highly conservative, see note below)
  • Your per unit wager

📊 Output: Your net gambling profit per month after fees.

🔗 Try the Net Profit Calculator

👉 Use +3 units/month profit as your baseline. The Sharp Plays has never done worse than an average of 5 units/month in any year over the last 15 years that TSP content has existed. So, if the math works at 3 units/month for you, everything above is a bonus!

🧠 Final Thoughts

Let’s be honest—price hikes aren’t fun. But The Sharp Plays isn’t a hobby. This is a real business, competing head-to-head with billion-dollar sportsbooks armed with elite tech and near endless resources.

To stay in the Top 1% of professional bettors, year after year, takes more than just sharp instincts. It requires real financial backing—to maintain our edge, stay ahead of evolving technology, and continually grow our source and intel network.

If The Sharp Plays ran like most of the industry, it’d be cheap—because all we’d need is a coin to flip…and then we would WOW you with fancy marketing, current hot run highlights and shiny other things…just not actual long-term and profitable performance.

Here’s what you get at The Sharp Plays that most services CAN’T deliver:

✔️ Industry-leading performance with a Top 1% ROI—15 years running!
✔️ 30+ years of high-level experience in sports gambling
✔️ Strategic discipline built on long-term success
✔️ Constant innovation, not stagnant systems
✔️ World-class analytics, driven by Hermes Elite A.I.—the best-performing A.I. in sports betting
✔️ No hype or hard selling, just transparent performance you can audit yourself each day…then decide
✔️ A community that makes it fun—sharing the sweat, celebrating the wins, and riding the highs and lows together

🤝 Thank You (Can’t Repeat This Enough)

Your continued support makes all this possible.
Without it, The Sharp Plays wouldn’t exist — at least not in the form you see today.

Thank you for taking the time to review the above. Myself and the rest of the TSP crew are fired up for the football season ahead and look forward to having you as part of the TSP Army—as we get back to work and exact revenge after one of the most public football seasons in the last 20 years!

Good luck to us, and let’s cash some tickets! 💪 🔥 Remember, Daddy needs the G700! ✈️ 😉

Changes go into effect on AUGUST 28, 2025

TSP INSIDERS WALLET HOLDERS: YOU CAN USE YOUR BALANCE FOR TSP LIVE SUBSCRIPTION PURCHASES…NOT JUST TSP INSIDERS PURCHASES…and even if you have $0.10! Send a message by clicking here to check your balance and utilize any funds.

Good luck and here’s to a great season ahead!

bookmark_borderThe Patience Blueprint: How Pros Survive the Cold and Crush the Comeback

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🧠 The Power of Patience in a Game Built on Pain

If June taught you anything heading into football season, let it be this:
👉 Patience is your fucking edge against the book.

June wasn’t easy. It wasn’t smooth. We had to grind. Pass. Stay disciplined.
But those who stuck it out with The Sharp Plays were rewarded:

  • 📊 TSP Portfolio: +3.09%
  • 🤖 Hermes Elite A.I.: +6.37%
  • 💥 Combined: +9.46%

This is what real, professional sports betting looks like. Not constant highs. Not fantasyland. It’s about managing the lows like a savage, staying in the game, and collecting when the heat rolls back around.

❄️ Cold Streaks Are the Entry Fee for Being Elite

Let’s rewind. From late November 2024 through February 2025, TSP Portfolio took a dive.

  • 📉 In 2024, from a +94% or +94 unit high in mid-November to +75% or +75 units by year-end
  • 📉 Then another -10.4% in Jan–Feb 2025

That’s when the weak tapped out.
That’s when the aspiring “pros” started whining.
That’s when people said, “Maybe this isn’t for me.”

But I’ve been doing this 30+ years. I knew what was coming.

🌤️ Then the Sun Came Out

From March to now?

🚀 TSP Portfolio +33.68% or +33.68 units
📈 All losses since late November 2024 have been erased AND…
🎯 +4.68% or +4.68 units in profit on top…AND THAT’S JUST TSP PORTFOLIO
🤖 Hermes 2025 YTD: Additional +54.60% or +54.60 units on top of it all!

But this piece isn’t about Hermes.
This is about patience. This is about TSP Portfolio, on its own, delivering like a savage—if you just gave it time.

Oh—and we’re now just 1.49 units away from the lifetime all-time high profit mark in TSP Portfolio (achieved earlier this month). That’s right. Not just the 2025 high… all-time.

And guess what? I called this in late December:

“Just be patient. I don’t know how or when, but these losses will come back to us… with profit on top. Some will quit before that happens, but that’s sad because it’ll happen!”

📢 That’s exactly what happened.

👶 This Game Ain’t for Babies

This isn’t a fairytale. This is gambling at the highest level.

You wanna call yourself a professional sports bettor?
You better learn how to handle the ice-cold months without melting.

If everyone could win, I’d just pay someone else $999/month and go sip cocktails at 11 a.m. like many veteran TSP Live subscribers!
But they can’t. So I do this shit myself—and invite you to the party.

🧊 Remember the Freeze, Celebrate the Fire

In the middle of the cold streak, how’d you feel?

Frustrated? Ready to quit?
Now zoom out and look where we are. How do you feel today looking at TSP Portfolio performance, Hermes Elite A.I. performance (selections, Value Plays, content, etc.)?!?!?!?!?!?!

If you blew your bankroll back in December, that was your choice.
If you stayed patient, stayed disciplined, you’re FAR richer today—and not just in units.

You earned wisdom. You earned experience. You earned your fucking stripes!

💬 Haters love to point to the 2019 Robin Hood Club.
You know what? So do I.

To them, it was a failure.
To me? It was one of the greatest comeback stories in TSP history.

Those who stuck through that 19-unit drawdown—the withering cold—didn’t just survive… they thrived.
They’re now among the best-performing TSP clients of all time—earning back 30, 40, even 50+ times what they lost.

That’s what this game is.
Not fairy tale “easy wins.”
It’s weathering storms until the sun shows up—and then knowing exactly what to do when it does.

🎯 Final Word: Pros Think Long-Term

Short-term? This shit can feel chaotic.
But long-term? It’s math. It’s method. It’s margins. We GRIND!

📅 15 years of consistent, transparent, top-tier performance
🎯 Top 1% among sharp bettors—not just any bettors, the best

You want to be elite? Then act like it when shit gets tough.

It’s not a matter of if the profits come. It’s a matter of when.

So next time it’s cold…
❄️ Bundle up, shut the fuck up, and ride it out.
Because the heat always comes back.

GOOD LUCK! 🍀🍀🍀

bookmark_borderThe Sharp Plays: Technology, Operations & Pricing Updates (2025)

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Let The Sharp Plays Cook!
Wolf, Tony, TSP, Hermes Elite A.I.

Every year from May through August, The Sharp Plays undergoes core operational upgrades to prepare for the football season. Some updates were brainstormed as far back as September and fine-tuned over time. Others are inspired on the fly as this process goes along. Below is a detailed look at key changes—with full transparency.

🔄 Initial Operational Changes

✅ denotes upgrades or changes that have completed

1. Telegram Channel Consolidation ✅

  • TSP Insiders Channel merged into TSP War Room (May 29th)
  • TSP Twitter/X Clone Channel also merged (June 1st)
  • All content now centralized via TSP War Room Telegram Channel
  • Join the War Room channel

2. Analytics Table Merger ✅

  • TSP Live Radar, KBC Consensus, and Book Needs tables are now inside the Hermes Elite A.I. table. You can see these on the table now.
  • However, these tools are football-specific and will appear “OFFLINE” until late August

3. Podcast Relaunch

  • Go Fast and Win podcast returns August through April
  • Updates to the website and new episodes will launch in August 2025

4. Streamlined TSP Live Alerts ✅

  • Alerts now focus strictly on high-level (30+) Hermes A.I. content, TSP Portfolio, and Degenerates Corner
  • Lower-tier content (like TSP Insider leans and low/mid-level intel not covered in the Degenerates Corner) now moves to Telegram/Twitter.
  • On days with a lot of high-tier content, more of the lower-tier content will shift to Telegram to keep TSP Live alerts focused and uncluttered. Conversely, on slower days with no high-tier plays/angles, more lower-tier content will be delivered exclusively to TSP Live subscribers…and Telegram will be quieter.

5. General Website Maintenance

  • Seasonal housekeeping updates to refresh outdated or retired content across all TSP platforms/websites. I apologize for any down-time or pages/features being offline for maintenance from time to time.

6. Hermes Upgrade to Version 2.0 (currently running Version 1.6) ✅

  • Hermes is scheduled for a major upgrade in July. While the system will remain online throughout the process, there may be brief periods of downtime—potentially a few hours at a time—as the new version is built in the background.
  • This upgrade will transition Hermes from version 1.6 to version 2.0. The new version will be trained using all the data, analysis, and tracking collected to date, enabling improved performance and smarter decision-making going forward.

7. Full Access to TSP Insiders (NEW – 6/19/25)

You asked, we listened: Many of you want full access to all TSP Insider plays (Wolf, Tony, etc.) — and you want the choice to buy what you want, when you want it.

🧩 The challenge:

  • Wolf has direct, long-time clients (20+ years) on a “pay after you win” model.
  • To honor those relationships, he won’t charge them for a play he gives free to TSP.
  • Some Insider picks come just 30 minutes before game time — tough to post in time for purchase.

💡 What we’re exploring:

  • Dynamic pricing — cold streak? Picks may go for $5. Hot streak? Higher prices reflect demand.
  • Everyone gets access. You control what to buy, with pricing that adjusts to performance.
  • Motivates Insiders to stay sharp and rewards loyal followers.
  • Pay After You Win option, but has to have a tweak due to potential collection issues.

🚫 No monthly subscriptions:

  • Wolf might only release 2–3 bets a month…other months 15-20.
  • Charging a set monthly fee is fine in high volume months, but not in low volume months — especially if the picks lose.

🏈 Coming for football season:

  • A new solution is in the works for full access to all Insider plays…every day and every play.
  • Until then, enjoy free Group Moves and select paid plays via TSP.Live.

While the current list of updates isn’t long, more upgrades and improvements will roll out in the coming weeks. Behind the scenes, dozens of backend and operational enhancements—like clerical adjustments and infrastructure tweaks—are already underway to keep everything optimized. As new, noticeable changes go live, I’ll add them to the numbered list above, mark them with “(NEW – Date Posted)”, and post an alert in the TSP War Room Telegram Channel with a link to this page so you can easily stay up to date.

⚠️ About Feedback

Feedback is welcome, but understand this:

If your feedback is just about making your experience better and not TSP overall, it won’t be prioritized.

Example: Some people complain when I get “verbose” on Telegram—meaning a few extra messages to the channel on certain days. Reality? Most days have 5–7 alerts. Occasionally, sure, it might hit 10+.

Sometimes I’m bored, sometimes I’m having fun with the TSP audience. Such instances might mean an extra 1–3 messages. It’s rare. If that’s too much for you, unsubscribe—but let’s be real, you won’t.

You may not love how I run things. But nobody outperforms The Sharp Plays—and 15 years of results prove it.

The numbers. Do. Not. Lie.

So if this level of performance isn’t worth putting up with a few extra alerts or my attempt at comedy/fun here and there, that’s on you.

If you leave to prove a point—go ahead.
You’re just sabotaging your own betting performance.

Me? I’ll be fine.
So will the rest of the TSP Army who aren’t wet noodles.

💵 Pricing Updates (TSP Live & TSP Insiders)

Pricing…the topic nobody likes. It’s long, but it’s because I want to be transparent about the thought process and analysis given the sensitivity of this topic. So, rather just give you TSP’s biased view, I asked ChatGPT to evaluate the fair pricing based on actual performance. The following, except the parts where you see “TSP:” is generated 100% from the ChatGPT analysis of the queries presented.

ChatGPT Query:

TSP: “What is the fair monthly cost for a sports handicapping service called TSP Live that offers two products that subscribers can access and which carry the stated performance:

  • TSP Portfolio: +15.70% lifetime ROI on risk (1770+ wagers), 12.08% ROI for 2025 (301 wagers)
  • Hermes Elite A.I.: +48.23% bankroll gain, 11.07% lifetime ROI on risk, +23.36% on 40+ scores, 450 wagers and all in 2025″

📊 Performance Recap (2025 Data)

  • TSP Portfolio: 301 wagers, 12.08% ROI = $3,637 profit at $100/unit
  • Hermes Elite A.I.: 450 wagers, 11.07% ROI = $4,982 profit at $100/unit
  • Combined Expected Value = $8,619 profit in under 5 months for $100 bettors, also supported by long-term data beyond 2025.

📊 Market Comparison

ServicePriceNotes
Dr. Bob$599/monthNFL & NCAA football/basketball only, no AI, lower ROI.
Don Best$499/monthOdds feed, no selections
Spank Odds$699/monthOdds feed, no selections
TSP Live???All major US & International Sports, AI-driven, elite ROI

TSP: I think Dr. Bob is one of the few honest people in this business and I respect him for that because it is so rare. His mention above should not be somehow seen as derogatory toward him or his pricing. If I wanted to be derogatory, there are countless others I could add to ChatGPT’s table.

⚖️ Fair Monthly Price Recommendations

Plan TypePrice RangeRationale
Standard Monthly$399–$599/monthJustified by ROI and betting volume

📌 ChatGPT Conclusion

You’re delivering:
Multi-year consistency
Multiple high-yield systems
A professional A.I. tool rivaling (and beating) industry software [TSP: Thanks ChatGPT…I appreciate it!]
A content stream that aligns with professional-level sports intelligence

✅ $499/month is the sweet spot – elite performance at a fraction of its delivered financial value.

🌟 TSP Insiders Pricing Analysis

ChatGPT Query:

TSP: Question 1: “I’m curious, what qualifies someone to be in the Top 1% of professional sports bettors worldwide?”

Question 2: “Can you create a breakdown of standing based on ROI for sports bettors?”

TSP SIDE NOTE: ChatGPT uses “ROI” in the same way as “Return on Risk,” which is important to understand. A 10% ROI does not mean a 10-unit or 10% bankroll gain—it can actually represent a much larger return. For example, if you place 500 bets at $1,000 each, that’s $500,000 in total risk. With a 10% ROI (a.k.a. Return on Risk), you’d earn $50,000 in profit. Assuming your unit size is $1,000, this suggests a $100,000 bankroll, and a 10% ROI would equate to a 50% gain on your bankroll ($50,000)—not just 10%.

ChatGPT Response (Question 1): These bettors are often tracking at 55%+ win rates on standard -110 lines over years of data—translating to +3% to +7% ROI or more, which is exceptional in this space.

ChatGPT Response (Question 2):

🏆 Sports Bettor ROI Tiers (Long-Term Performance)

TSP: Which tier are you—or perhaps “were” you?

TierROI RangePerformance SummaryTypical Traits
🔝 Top 1% – Elite Pro+5% or moreExtremely rare. Beating the market efficiently over time. Likely using modeling, market access, syndicate intel, or automation.Strong closing line value, disciplined bankroll use, low volume/high accuracy. Syndicate or high-stakes pro.
💼 Top 5% – Sharp Pro+2% to +5%Long-term profitable, typically full-time or semi-pro. Likely betting high volume with disciplined process.Uses data, betting tools, possibly sells picks or runs a service. May avoid popular markets.
📈 Top 10% – Skilled Bettor+1% to +2%Profitable after juice, beats market inconsistently but has edge. Could become pro with scaling.Good discipline, some closing line value, maybe focused on niche markets. Often supplementing income.
📊 Top 25% – Breakeven or Slight Edge0% to +1%Could beat the market, but profits are minimal or eaten by vig. Often one good tweak away from sharp success.Casual sharp, good intuition but lacks a full edge or consistency.
🌀 The Middle – Losing, But Close-1% to 0%Majority of active bettors fall here. Losing slowly over time—often due to small leaks or poor market selection.Lacks discipline, chases bets, bets popular games or odds.
🧨 Bottom 50% – Rec Bettors-1% to -10%Betting for entertainment, not profit. Often loses to juice or overbets favorites, parlays, or props.Casual approach, minimal tracking, emotionally driven decisions.
🔻 Bottom 10% – Action Junkies-10% or worseLosing rapidly. Likely chasing losses or has no betting framework.No bankroll strategy, no tracking, often addicted to the rush.

⚠️ ChatGPT Notes:

  • These ROI figures assume standard -110 markets or their EV equivalents.
  • ROI should always be judged in the context of volume. A +10% ROI on 20 bets is meaningless; +2% ROI on 3,000 bets is elite.
  • Even Top 1% bettors may end the month negative—variance is real.

TSP: I saved the full chat with ChatGPT, and I swear on everything I hold dear—it was ChatGPT that added the third bullet point about even bettors in the Top 1% experiencing negative months. Many of you are laughing because it’s something I say constantly in that I always try to get bettors to understand: no matter how skilled you are, no one avoids losing streaks—whether it’s a rough day, a tough week, or even a down month. It’s just part of the game. Not accepting “betting reality” as I refer to it will only be a detriment to your success!

TSP: Wolf & Tony have a +9.9% ROI over 231 wagers, TSP Portfolio holds a +15.7% ROI over 1776 wagers, Hermes A.I. holds a +11.27% ROI over 453 wagers. Yes, ELITE Pro – Top 1%!

ChatGPT Query:

TSP: “If two professionals bettors combine for a +9.9% ROI over 231 wagers for the last 9 months and sell their selections to clients, what would be a fair price per selection given this level of performance?”

ChatGPT Response: A combined +9.9% ROI absolutely qualifies as Top 1% performance.

If that ROI is sustained over hundreds of wagers, it reflects sharp modeling, disciplined execution, and consistent value—whether it’s from one individual or a team.

💰 Per-Selection Fair Pricing

TierQualityPrice Per Pick
LowUnverified, weak ROI$5–$15
Mid2–4% ROI$15–$25
High5%+ ROI, verified$30–$50
Elite9.9% ROI (TSP Insiders)$50–$100

~~~ END OF CHATGPT ANALYSIS ~~~

TSP: Everything below is now The Sharp Plays text and content, ChatGPT was allowed to go on break at this point. It did a great job!

💬 So, What Will Pricing Be for 2025–26?

Honestly? I don’t know yet. But here’s where we’ve been—and where we are now:

  • Current: TSP Live $179.99/month – TSP Insiders $15-$25/selection
  • 2019: $200/month — for just 8 picks per month
  • 2020: Dropped to $149.99 to entice people to test a monthly subscription w/daily content
  • 2022: Increased to $159.99
  • 2024: Increased to $179.99

Now, six years later, TSP Live still costs less than it did in 2019, even though the content, tools, techology and performance have grown exponentially.

🎯 Striking the Right Balance

My price goal remains simple:

Keep TSP Live affordable for smaller bettors, while supporting the infrastructure, team, and ongoing expansion and innovation that make this entire operation possible—AND SUCCESSFUL!

Yes, I agree with ChatGPT that TSP Live could easily justify a $499/month price tag based on it’s elite ROI and value…logged over the last 14 years of content!

Yes, Wolf & Tony could realistically charge $50-100 per selection given their elite performance.

But don’t panic—nobody’s pushing pricing to those levels in 2025. I can’t make any guarantees though if we get Venezuelan inflation or devalue the dollar.

This breakdown provides an unbiased, third-party assessment of the service’s value—powered by ChatGPT and grounded in something I trust completely: math. There’s no emotion, no spin—just a logical analysis based on market benchmarks and actual performance results.

Most major handicapping websites charge $30–$50 per individual pick and $299–$599 per month—and that’s a conservative estimate. Yet despite these high prices, their performance often falls well short of what The Sharp Plays delivers—if they’re profitable at all. In fact, a Deadspin study found that only 11 out of 49 handicappers at Pregame.com showed a profit before fees, and just 1 out of 49 turned a profit after fees were deducted.

⚖️ How TSP Insiders Helps TSP Live Pricing Stay Below Fair Value

I understand some don’t care for the TSP Insiders model because it’s “another purchase” on top of the TSP Live subscription. But here’s the reality:

Those additional selections, provided by independent TSP Insiders, are entirely optional—and they’re a key reason why the TSP Live monthly subscription remains affordable. So far, there haven’t been many paid TSP Insiders plays—averaging just 3 per month—while nearly five times that number have been provided for free. When selections are offered for free, they’re not truly free—TSP Insiders are compensated directly by The Sharp Plays. These Insiders work hard behind the scenes and deserve to be rewarded for helping us all grow our wealth.

Also, TSP Insiders paid selections are no longer a part of TSP Portfolio and they ARE NOT tracked in the TSP Live Hermes A.I. performance numbers. There’s a separate tracking for Hermes A.I. performance for TSP Insiders (TheSharpPlays.com). So, you lose nothing by not participating in them if you follow Hermes and/or Portfolio in TSP Live.

Yes, the volume of paid releases will increase going forward, but that’s driven by customer demand for more access to TSP Insiders’ Group Moves, given the performance, not based on pushing more sales.

TSP Insiders sales allow higher-stakes bettors to contribute more by purchasing individual TSP Insiders selections, without forcing that cost on everyone. It’s a flexible system that benefits all sides—and the additional TSP Insiders revenue keeps access to the TSP Live subscription open to more bettors’ budgets.

📌 Final Word (on Price)

You’ve seen how pricing has changed—slowly and fairly—over six years. Every step has been based on real growth, added content, and increased performance.

Hermes A.I. is by far the most ambitious—and most expensive—project I’ve ever taken on for TSP. Like most large-scale ventures, it’s operating with carried debt due to the lack of revenue generation from Hermes A.I. during the research and development phases (2022-2025), and it has significantly increased monthly technical costs. That said, I think we can agree the early performance proves the investment was a worthwhile gamble. When prices are raised, it’s never about picking anyone’s pocket—it’s about fueling growth and expanding the value of the content.

I’ll share more pricing details in the weeks ahead as I explore ideas and work out budgets. But rest assured:

I’m not looking to blindside you—just build something sustainable and scalable for everyone.

🍀 Closing Thoughts

Yes, this article was long—but it needed to be. My goal is to keep you informed, educated, and prepared, especially on sensitive topics like pricing, where I strive for 100% transparency.

Thank you for being a loyal part of the TSP Army.

The Sharp Plays won’t win every day, week, or month—but over the long haul, the numbers don’t lie. During a cold stretch, it might not feel that way, but over time, the results speak for themselves. Go ahead—look around. You won’t find another platform with 15 years of consistent, high-level performance.

Even ChatGPT labels TSP’s track record as “Elite Pro” level—Top 1% territory.😎
I don’t flex often, but when it comes to this kind of sustained success for The Sharp Plays, I’ll gladly make an exception.

Here’s to keeping it rolling in 2025 and beyond.

Thanks again for your trust and support!

Good luck,
~ TSP

bookmark_borderThe Hardest Part of Professional Gambling

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Posted this as an intro to a TSP Live alert on Friday and it got solid reviews, so I am adding it to the education section on TSP.Live for future reference…

🎯 The Hardest Part of Professional Gambling

The hardest part of this journey is not teaching people how to win — it’s getting them not to quit. When gambling stops feeling like easy money, so many bettors just vanish.

Over the past week, I’ve been diving deep into lessons from March, April, and May to show what true professional gambling looks like. Why? Because the real path to success goes against everything most people are taught. Breaking those bad habits and misconceptions is the toughest challenge. But if I can do that with you, you’ll evolve into an exceptional professional bettor…with a healthy income!

💭 The Dream vs. The Reality 💪

The Dream:
According to the so-called experts on Twitter/X, Instagram, and TikTok, gambling is easy money. They promise constant best bets, daily locks, and effortless wealth. You’re urged to buy multiple picks at $29.99 each per day or sign up for a $399 or $599/month package — all sold by people who haven’t posted a winning year in their lives.

Their credentials? Maybe a handicapping contest win from 2007 or 2015. And forget about transparency. These services never maintain a public daily log AND daily compiled records like The Sharp Plays does — because doing so would expose their inconsistencies and lack of real performance!

Some services will let you pull previous selections, but they avoid compiling the actual results for one reason: they know most people won’t take the time to do it themselves. They pretend to be transparent by allowing access to all previous selections, but without compiled records (LONG-TERM RECORDS…not just current season or last 30 days) of all those previous selections, it’s meaningless. They’re counting on your laziness — that you won’t run the numbers, and you’ll just assume their performance is solid because the past plays are “available.”

Let’s be clear: transparency means nothing without accountability.

If a service dazzles you with flash but won’t show you detailed long-term records — meaning performance across past seasons and years, not just a cherry-picked month or a single season — AND daily logs of ALL their action that you can independently track and audit, they have something to hide!!! A real pro doesn’t hide the data. If someone’s legit — like The Sharp Plays — they want you to see the records and the logs of EVERYTHING…every year and every wager! That’s the difference between a seller of dreams and a provider of results. I flex on my results — I put my dick on display each day because I want you to see how big it is, not just talk about it and stuff a sock in my pants hoping you’ll trust me on what I’m packing.

The Reality:
When I explain how this business actually works — backed by 26 years of experience and 15 straight public winning years since launching the content in 2011 — people push back. It doesn’t fit the fantasy they bought into years ago from the pick sellers and hype machines. They want easy money, fast cars, private jets, $100K bets, and guaranteed wins.

But real success? It isn’t flashy. It’s methodical. It’s disciplined. It’s long-term.

And yes — the fast cars, private jet access, and six-figure wagers? Those come too… but only with time. When I started out betting in high school I was betting $5 a game. Dropping $100 felt like putting a million on the line.

Today? I’m living the dream. Dedication, time, and relentless effort got me here — and it can get you here too.

It might sound over the top, but as I write this and think back to those days grinding for an edge in my bedroom at my parents’ house in high school, and then fast forward to where I am now… I get emotional. I never imagined I’d make it this far — but I did.

And here’s the truth: I’m nobody special. I didn’t come from millions. I didn’t have a head start. Every break I got, I earned…and I accepted failures and got back up. This isn’t some overnight success story — it’s a story of persistence, belief, and refusing to quit.

🔍 Trust the Process

Here’s what I hope you’ve learned these past three months:

  • Trust the process. Even if it’s not flashy, it’s proven and time-tested — 26 years professionally and 15 years publicly… with winners every year.
  • My style may be unconventional — rollovers, parlays, passing multiple days at a time, and more — but it works. Let’s not fix what’s not broken.
  • We will have losing days, weeks, and even months. But discipline and consistency lead to long-term profits.

❌ LOSERS QUIT!

After January and February, some quit. TSP Portfolio was down 15%/units for 2025, and Hermes A.I. wasn’t on fire yet. So they gave up. Why? The money wasn’t fast enough or easy enough.

But those who stayed now see Hermes A.I. climb to +48.11%/unit bankroll growth and TSP Portfolio reach +20.15%/unit bankroll growth in 2025. Combined? Aggressive followers have experienced +68.26%/unit bankroll growth in just five months as of today. That’s the reward for patience.

🧠 Are You Really Following the Plan?

If you’re thinking, “I’m not up +68.26%/units,” ask yourself:

  • Did you change your strategy?
  • Did you follow someone else?
  • Did you add your own bets not part of the system?

That’s likely why your results are different. Consistency is everything. Stick to the plan and the results will come. Audit your action with the daily logs at TheSharpPlays.com.

🚀 Let’s Keep Grinding 🍀🍀🍀

bookmark_borderA TSP Year-End Mystery: “Why Did I Lose?”

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🧠 A Year-End Mystery: “Why Did I Lose?”

No matter how good the content does again for this year, I will undoubtedly hear from several people wondering how they managed to lose money during what will once again be a winning year for the TSP Portfolio and Hermes A.I.

They often say:

“I followed everything! How did I still lose?”

But the truth is, most didn’t actually follow everything—and that’s where the disconnect begins. Let’s break down the common traps.

🚨 Trap #1: Strategy Hopping

Many bettors can’t resist the temptation to chase the hot hand. When the TSP Portfolio or Hermes A.I. has a rough week, they abandon ship and jump to another handicapper who happens to be hot. But timing is cruel—you usually catch the cold streak of the new system right after abandoning the one about to turn hot.

❗ Important Reminder:
The Sharp Plays content has been public since 2011—15 years without a losing year!

Still, gamblers expect perfection:

  • No losing months
  • No losing weeks
  • Not even a bad day

That’s just not how professional gambling works. And those unrealistic expectations lead to bad decision-making.

💸 Trap #2: Bankroll Mismanagement

Even those who stick with the right service often fall into another pit: poor bankroll management.

Here’s the truth:

📊 Bankroll management matters more than your win percentage.

You can have a sub-52% win rate and still be profitable if you know when to press and when to scale back. Most gamblers do the opposite:

  • Press during cold runs
  • Tighten during hot streaks

The result? Losses pile up even when the core strategy wins overall.

🎯 Trap #3: Betting Detours

Another mistake is straying from the plan. For example:

  • You follow the TSP Portfolio…
  • But suddenly throw down on the Yankees because “there’s no way they lose”
  • Then toss in a UFC fighter bet for fun

You lose 3 units while TSP Live might have been up 3 units—you turned a winning day into a breakeven or losing one. Those “just this once” bets can snowball over time.

✅ Pro Tip:
Keep a separate bankroll for recreational or “hunch” bets, or limit them to small stakes—pizza money style. It scratches the itch without tanking your long-term profitability.

🤔 Trap #4: Overanalyzing – Trust the Data, Not Just Your Instincts

A common mistake among bettors using TSP content is deviating from the suggested strategy. It’s tempting to think you know better—and maybe sometimes you do—but more often, straying leads to underperformance.

The Hermes A.I. system is built on data-driven base wager risk levels, based on the score:

  • 30–39: 1.00% of bankroll
  • 40–49: 1.25%
  • 50–59: 1.50%
  • 60–69: 2.00%
  • 70–79: 3.00%
  • 80–89: 4.00%
  • 90–100: 5.00%

You can find the full Hermes A.I. details anytime at TSP.Live/hermes.

The TSP Portfolio makes it even easier—each play includes the risk level right there with it.

Of course, you’re free to bet however you like: wager more, less, not at all, or even fade the picks. But understand—deviating from the TSP strategy means deviating from TSP’s performance. It’s your call, but the system is built on stats, not emotion. Follow the framework if you want to stay aligned with the results.

📉 The Harsh Reality: Most Bettors Aren’t Profitable

People love to believe they’re winning gamblers. But when they log every wager honestly, the truth usually surfaces—and it’s not pretty.

If you’re not tracking your action, you’re gambling blind.

🎉 What Sets Winners Apart

So when year-end rolls around and you see the celebration posts, but your bankroll doesn’t reflect that joy…check these things:

  • Did you follow the system consistently?
  • Did you manage your bankroll like a pro?
  • Did you avoid side bets that added risk and noise?

If not, there’s still time to adjust. Let’s finish the year strong—together.

🤑 Good luck to us!

The day after the above article was published, I followed it up with additional commentary. The commentary fit with the above and got very positive reviews, so I figured I would include it with this article as well. I hope you enjoy…

🎢 The Grind is Real

Up on Monday, down on Tuesday—welcome to the grind, my degenerate friends!
This is the phase where professional bettors separate themselves from action junkies and perpetual losers. It’s what I discussed yesterday in my article:
👉 A TSP Year-End Mystery: Why Did I Lose?

🌟 When It’s Good, It’s Great

We all love those hot streaks like March and April, where everything seems to go right. And guess what? We’ll have more months like that before 2025 wraps up.

But the real question is:
How well do you manage yourself during the cold runs or sideways grinds while waiting for the next hot streak?

💸 If It Were Easy, Everyone Would Be Rich

Let’s face it—if gambling printed money daily, it would be boring (but hey, we’d live with it 😆). Still, the ups and downs are part of the entertainment…and what make the hot runs so euphoric.

That said, I cannot stress this enough—and it ties back to the article linked above:

The reason The Sharp Plays content has had 15 straight winning years since launching in 2011, and sportsbooks are still in business, is simple: even when given winning content, most gamblers still lose.

Why?
Because they lack the discipline to:

  • Accept losing days, weeks and months
  • Avoid pressing or chasing
  • Stick with a consistent strategy

📉 Cold Streak? Don’t Panic—Pause

If the content is cold, it’s OK to pass. Don’t chase. Don’t switch strategies out of desperation.

Wait for the TSP Index to trend upward, then jump back in if you’re not comfortable riding the storm.
Yes, you may miss a few winners, but if you only bet during uptrends, and The Sharp Plays ends the year winning—you’ll be just fine too.

If you’re thinking, “Wait, TSP—you said to be consistent, and now you’re saying only bet during uptrends?”—you’re absolutely right. That is a consistent strategy. It’s just a different one from what TSP Live will be doing.

Only betting when the TSP Index is in an uptrend is a disciplined, mathematical approach. Yes, your results may differ from the full-year TSP performance, but historically, this method will still have you finishing well in the green by year’s end.

You can track the Index on the Hermes A.I. table—it’s:

  • Linked at the top of every alert on TSP Live
  • Accessible at TheSharpPlays.com by clicking “Index” in the site menu

This approach won’t eliminate all losing streaks, but it does reduce their frequency. If you find yourself struggling with self-control or emotional betting swings, this strategy helps protect your bankroll from…you.

🧠 Master the Mental Game

Gambling can be simple—if you get out of your own head. Stick to a strategy. Manage your bankroll. Stay disciplined.

How do I know?
Because that’s what I do. My income doesn’t come from The Sharp Plays—it comes from my own professional gambling, which you see reflected in the content.

📆 Consistency is Key (Even in Losing Months)

Yes, there will be losing months ahead. And yes, as a subscriber, that means paying for a losing month—and then coming right back to pay again next month.

Sound like sales talk? Maybe.
But it’s also the truth.

We don’t know in advance which months will be hot or cold. What we do know is this:

15 straight years of healthy annual profit have rewarded those with patience, consistency, and proper bankroll discipline.

There will be times when you lose in January, lose in February, and then come right back in March—only to see the content crush it. It’s tempting to think, “Why not just pay during the winning months?”

But let’s be real:
What would that even look like? Charging $0 for losing months and $500 for winning ones? In the end, it would average out to about the same as the current $179.99 per month—just dressed up to make some people feel better.

Like the gambling itself, pricing and content delivery are consistent.
Unfortunately, not every subscriber is.

There are people who didn’t like the results in December or January, so they skipped February, March, and April—and missed out on massive profits.

If you’re going to be a TSP Live subscriber, commit through the ups and downs. Or don’t subscribe at all.
No hard feelings—just be consistent, whatever your choice.

I truly appreciate everyone who supports this grind, and I’ll always do everything I can to help you succeed. But I also recognize that this path isn’t for everyone—and that’s OK.

Just be honest with yourself. Know your limits.
Self-awareness is one of the most underrated tools in a gambler’s arsenal.

🍽️ Final Bite of Food for Thought

This grind isn’t for everyone—but if you can respect the process, control your impulses, and ride the waves with clarity and consistency, the rewards are there. Every year.

Let’s keep grinding,
The Sharp Plays

bookmark_borderTSP Insiders Updates – Part 1

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The following was originally posted in mid-April and is now being updated based on where things stand now and added to the ‘Education’ section on TSP.Live for future reference…

TSP Insiders Purchases Moving to TSP.Live

A new update is coming to streamline how you purchase selections from TSP Insiders, starting with Tony The Bookie and the new MLB addition to the TSP Insiders team. Wolf’s sales will remain at his WHOP of AnalyticsWolf.com.

Instead of going through TSPInsiders.com directly, you’ll purchase Tony’s selections the same way you subscribe to TSP Live packages…via TSP.Live/register. Simply visit the “Subscribe” link in the menu, where you’ll find an option labeled “TSP INSIDERS SELECTION – Tony The Bookie.”

⚠️⚠️ Note: There is no active selection available right now via the above method—this is just a heads-up on how the process will work. ⚠️⚠️
I expect to test this setup with a live selection this coming week.

How It Will Work:

  • Visit the “Subscribe” link in the TSP.Live website menu.
  • Choose the TSP Insiders selection from the list of available subscriptions.
  • Complete your payment through the familiar TSP.Live checkout system.
  • After payment, you’ll be redirected to view the play.
    (If you aren’t redirected, just visit TSP.Live/tspinsiders, login if you aren’t already, and the play will be accessible at that link for anyone who purchased.)

Wolf’s picks will still be processed via WHOP, because that is where he does all his processing for his direct clients, but all other TSP Insider plays will go through TSP.Live moving forward.

TSPInsiders.com will remain fully functional, but clicking the “Purchase” link in the website menu (starting shortly) will direct you to TSP.Live for a listing of any available plays and the ability to checkout.

Why the Change?

This update allows a single login for both TSP Live and TSP Insiders purchases/access…simplifying access and improving user experience. Previously, the TSP Live platform didn’t support this functionality, but a recent software upgrade made it possible.

Those of you with TSP Insiders Wallets, there will be a system on TSPInsiders.com to easily login and purchase using wallet funds. The TSP Insiders Wallet will be phased out. Those of you will crypto purchases for TSP Insiders will be given an alternate option for easy access/purchasing.

Stay tuned for Part 2 and further details.

Good luck!

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: Hermes Elite A.I. – The Future of Betting Intelligence

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Hermes

The purpose of this article is to familiarize you with Hermes, an advanced betting analytics platform from The Sharp Plays (TSP). We’ll explore its origin, current capabilities, rollout roadmap, and future evolution. Plus, we’ll touch on the real-world challenges and considerations that come with managing such a dynamic tool.

🧬 Origins of Hermes

Hermes was first launched in November 2021 and ran until early 2023. Despite overall profitability, it had issues—most notably, speed. At 25–30 seconds per analysis, Hermes lagged in live betting environments where every second counts. So, it was sent back into R&D to be re-engineered for sub-3-second performance.

Why the name “Hermes”? In Greek mythology, Hermes is the god of gambling, luck, wealth, and trickery—also the messenger of the gods. A perfect metaphor: Hermes is our messenger between the betting markets and sharp bettors.

🚀 Hermes 2.0 and the AI Revolution

Major advances in AI during 2023 and 2024 gave new life to the project. With heavy investments in hardware, data subscriptions, and AI programming, Hermes was reintroduced in December 2024 to TSP Live subscribers.

After some final testing and infrastructure upgrades, Hermes Pro officially went live on January 13, 2025.

Since then, Hermes has:

  • Issued 150+ high-quality selections
  • Tackled obscure markets like Costa Rican and Argentinian soccer
  • Delivered win rates and ROI exceeding expectations
  • Highlighted unique betting angles and sharp money overlaps

🧠 What Can Hermes Do?

Hermes isn’t just a pick generator—it’s a fully dynamic betting assistant:

  • 🧮 Generates and ranks plays based on score thresholds
  • 📡 Detects patterns among sharp betting groups
  • 📊 Analyzes data and odds to create implied probabilities
  • 🔁 Self-audits its own performance to improve quality
  • 💡 Answers betting questions in seconds (e.g., “Who’s the best bettor on Getafe games?”)

It can even deliver real-time alerts on market shifts, sharp moves, prop bets, and group buys—automatically.

🗓️ The Hermes Rollout: Phase by Phase

📅 Month 1 (Jan 13 – Feb 13)

  • Manual monitoring by me
  • Selective release of Hermes Selections
  • Performance: 56.77% win rate, +21.90% bankroll ROI, +12.58% ROR

📅 Month 2 (Feb 14 – Mar 16)

  • Hermes begins managing the TSP Portfolio
  • Operates under tight parameters for risk and sizing
  • Mission: Grow house money for aggressive end-of-year plays

📅 Month 3 (Mar Madness – Mid-April)

  • Hermes issues automated alerts
  • Moves closer to full autonomy

📅 May – August

  • Hermes continues as Director of Trading
  • Receives upgrades to prep for football season dominance

⚙️ Hermes as the New Command Center

Over time, Hermes will fully absorb and manage:

  • ✅ TSP Live Radar
  • ✅ KB Consensus
  • ✅ Book Needs
  • ✅ Group Buys

All those legacy analytics are now integrated into Hermes. When an alert-worthy condition is met—Hermes will notify you.

⚠️ Challenges to Consider

📌 Analysis Paralysis

With so much data, you might freeze instead of act. That’s where my experience comes in—I curate and filter the firehose of information.

📌 Financial Sustainability

Hermes requires:

  • Data subscriptions 📚
  • Server infrastructure 🖥️
  • Developer support 🧑‍💻

To keep TSP Live prices stable through 2025, a small percentage (≈10%) of Hermes content will be packaged with TSP Insiders. But rest assured:

  • 💯 All TSP Portfolio plays will be in TSP Live or posted free
  • 🧮 90%+ of Hermes content will remain part of TSP Live

No gouging. Just practical monetization.

🤝 Final Thoughts: A Team Effort

Hermes is a game-changer, but like anything powerful, it must be used wisely. Set betting limits, avoid overextension, and trust the process.

You now understand:

  • 📖 Hermes’s origin and goals
  • 🧠 Its core functions
  • 🛠️ The staged rollout and future roadmap
  • 🧩 Challenges and how we’ll solve them
  • 💵 Transparent pricing and content distribution

Thank you for making Hermes possible. If you have feedback—constructive or curious—I welcome it. Just give me a little time to respond as I sort through the inbox post-launch.

Let’s all cash in together. Good luck in your action! 🍀

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: WSJ Study on Gambler’s Optimism (Hint…It’s WAY Out of Whack!)

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📖 Great read from The Wall Street Journal that every bettor—novice or seasoned—should absorb. The article dives into a Stanford University study that reveals just how delusional most sports bettors are when it comes to their expected returns. Here’s the blunt truth…

🔬 Key Findings from the Stanford Study

📉 Expectation vs. Reality

  • The average bettor expects a gain of $0.003 (0.3 cents) for every dollar wagered.
  • In reality, they lose $0.075 (7.5 cents) for every dollar bet.
  • This disconnect highlights a massive overestimation of personal betting skill.

🧠 Optimism Gap

  • 10% of bettors were so overly optimistic they expected to win $0.20+ per dollar wagered.
  • 80% were still overly optimistic, just not by as much.
  • Only 9% of bettors actually underestimated how they’d perform.

💭 From lead author Matthew Brown:

“We found that people more or less understood the amount of money they had lost in the past, but they just thought the future would be better.”

Sound familiar? That’s because every square thinks their next bet will finally turn things around—until it doesn’t.

🧠 Gambling Is a Mental Game

You will never win consistently in this business until you manage your expectations and accept the harsh truth about betting reality.

🚫 Too many gamblers:

  • Set short-term goals (win $10K this week, double my bankroll by playoffs)
  • Fail to hit them
  • Press and chase to “get there faster”
  • Blow up their bankrolls and cry foul

✅ What winners do:

  • Set realistic, long-term expectations (i.e., 12 months)
  • Grind the edge
  • Accept losing streaks as part of the process
  • Stay disciplined, patient, and mechanical

📉 Final Thought: Be the Book… Not the Sucker

This Stanford data confirms what most books already know:

Gamblers are overly optimistic, underprepared, and emotionally driven.

And if you’re not willing to train your mindset, then trust me… your bookie is thrilled to have you.

Want to win? Treat sports betting like a business. Master your emotions. Respect the grind. And for the love of bankrolls everywhere, stop thinking your luck changes every Sunday.

🎓 Lesson of the day: Set a 12-month plan. Stick to it. Anything less, and you’re just another dreamer the books will gladly bleed dry.

Good luck—you’ll need it. 😉

bookmark_borderThe First Steps On My Gambling Path…

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I’m always asked how I got into sports betting. The first gambling memory I have goes to when I was very young. Based on the house we were living in at the time, I honestly had to be 6-8 years old. It’s funny, the memories you retain from that age are very limited, so for this to be one of those memories says something about me and perhaps what my path in life was intended to be.

Anyway, when I was 6-8 years old I recall seeing my dad with one of the old parlay tickets. It was on the corner of the side table in our living room. For those who don’t remember or even know what these are…they are those white strips of paper where “All Ties Lose” and a four teamer pays 10-1. These cards were passed around workplaces like crazy in the 70’s through the 90’s…and sometimes even today (click here for the best picture I could find showing one). I asked my dad what it was and he briefly explained the parlay ticket or parlay card as they were know…teams get points because it would be too easy to pick outright winners, you bet money and get paid if you are correct on everything you pick. My dad didn’t bet with a bookie or anything, just take a shot at a parlay card each week for fun. Yep, even at that young age, the thought of picking sports teams and winning money was injected into my blood. My degenerate gland was activated!

People say you know from an early age what you were meant to be…what your destiny would entail…it’s just a matter of whether you listen or not…and what path you follow to get there. I was way too young to be excited about gambling on a parlay ticket…but I was! Looking back now it is clear the universe was dropping me hints. The universe would drop me a lot of hints along the way, I am glad I listened. I will save those for another story at another time!

Fast forward to when I was around 12. I was out shopping with my mother at one of those stores which sells various discount items. The store would be similar to a Dollar General today. Well, in this store there was a book area and my eye caught this green and white book with the title “Betting To Win on Sports” by Wayne Alan Root. I knew nothing about Wayne Root at the time, just that it was a book about betting sports to win money…EXCELLENT! Just what I wanted to do…bet sports and win! I was jacked and I asked my mother to get it for me. Thankfully it was a book, so she didn’t pay much attention to the title as she threw it into the cart! It was definitely discounted to less than $5…because the listed retail price on the back was only $8.95. LOL! It was without a doubt the first book I ever read on gambling…and funny enough, I have kept the book through the years because of what it meant to my journey. I wish I could have kept that first parlay ticket I saw my dad with, it would have made for a GREAT artifact in the TSP Gambling Museum! Below are actual photos of my copy of Wayne Root’s book as it looks today…

The book is still around, with used versions available for purchase through various outlets. It’s hardly some Bible of sports betting success. I don’t even know if the strategies were good, but it’s a book that made me think about gambling in different ways and only increased my interest in the business. It made me think more analytically…even at 12 years old…yeah, I was a nerd…and a degenerate. If you want to have a fun read or check out the book yourself, there are (at least as I type) a couple used copies on Amazon…

https://www.amazon.com/Betting-Sports-Wayne-Allyn-Root/dp/0553347896/

Anyway, people always ask me how I got started and these two occasions…the parlay ticket with my dad and then a few years later with the book, were without a doubt key to leading me on my gambling path. There were a lot of steps along the path, and breadcrumbs that kept me moving forward, but without the parlay card or the book, I may never have gotten into gambling.

I don’t know what your path in life is meant to be. Sometimes people think it is one thing, or want it to be one thing, but their actual destiny is something else. I do believe you get little hints along the way and the question is whether you follow those hints to your destiny or you tear off the path in another direction, spending your time on earth always searching but never finding…and at best only achieving minor successes. It will feel “different” when one of those universal hints get dropped in front of you…it makes you stop for a brief second as your brain says…wait a minute…there is something more to this. Do you then blow right by or sit back and think deeply about what it might mean? When you think you figured it out, follow that path and keep an eye out for the breadcrumbs along the way which provide the reassurance that you are on your path. Yes, we all have free will, but that doesn’t mean the universe won’t drop hints in front of you to help you get to your destiny. Your free will is whether you listen or not.

Not everyone’s path leads to riches in money and power. It’s about fulfillment…and whatever that means to your soul. My aunt’s path was to be a teacher…to educate kids and help them achieve their greatness. She wasn’t poor by any means, but she also wasn’t wealthy…but that didn’t matter to her. There are few people I have ever met who loved their life more than my aunt loved hers. The energy she had teaching, to anyone watching her do it, knew that was her destiny…and she was without a doubt fulfilled by it.

My path was gambling. I wanted other successes and things in life, and I took shots to get them, but it never seemed to work out. When I got back on the gambling path…everything would almost immediately come together for me. I stopped fighting it…and I am glad I did. While I think how much fun it would be to have Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos business successes, and be looking to spend my pocket change on buying and NFL team, that’s not my destiny. It’s all good though, because gambling has given me more in life than I ever could have imagined…and it keeps giving me more and more to this very day. It’s where I was meant to be and I am incredibly fulfilled by it…and continuously look forward to what the future holds!

I hope all of you find total fulfillment out of your lives!

Look at me I am Tony Robbins now! LOL! 😂 😂 😂

Good luck to you in your life’s journey! 🍀

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: Return on Risk (ROR) versus Bankroll Return on Investment (ROI)…it’s a BIG Difference!

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One of the most consistently misunderstood concepts in gambling is the difference between Return on Investment (ROI) and Return on Risk (ROR).

Recently, I mentioned that the TSP Portfolio had a +5.6% ROR for the football season, and right away I saw a bunch of people assume that means if they had a $10,000 bankroll, they made $560.

That’s not even close.

🔍 Let’s Break This Down

In professional betting, two key performance metrics define your long-term success:

1️⃣ Return on Risk (ROR)

This is profit made per dollar or unit wagered.

  • Example: A +5% ROR means you earn $0.05 for every $1 you risk.
  • The focus here is not your bankroll—it’s the grind on each individual dollar wagered.

2️⃣ Bankroll ROI

This measures how much profit you’ve made as a percentage of your total bankroll.

  • Example: If you started with $10,000 and you’re up $8,730, your ROI is +87.3%.

See the difference? ROR is about efficiency and edge per dollar risked. ROI is the result of that efficiency compounded over your bankroll.

🎰 Casinos Work the Same Way

Still think 5% ROR sounds small? Consider American roulette, which has a house edge of 5.26%. That means:

  • For every $1 you bet, you lose 5.26 cents.
  • Over time, that “nickel per dollar” grind bankrupts players.

Now flip the script. Instead of slowly bleeding your money, you’re the house—you’re earning that nickel per dollar, every time you bet.

That’s the math behind professional betting. You grind profits over time, not by hitting 80% win rates (which is fantasy), but by being consistent and patient with a small but positive edge.

📊 TSP Portfolio Results: Why the Math Works

Let’s use 2024 data from the TSP Portfolio as an example:

  • ROR: +8.54%
  • Bankroll ROI: +87.3%

So, let’s run a couple of bankroll scenarios:

BankrollAvg. Bet2024 ProfitTotal Since Jan 1, 2023
$500,000$5,000$436,500$1,743,500
$1,000,000$10,000$873,000$3,487,000

And that’s with zero thinking and a subscription that costs less than $6/day.

This is why ChatGPT and every major betting model says a +5% ROR is exceptional.
Most “professional bettors” don’t even reach +2%.

😤 So, What’s the Catch?

YOU. ARE. THE. CATCH.

People LOVE the math…until a cold streak hits. Then suddenly:

  • They forget all the past performance.
  • They panic during a 2-13 stretch.
  • They press and chase.
  • They burn their bankrolls before the hot run inevitably arrives.

That’s why I preach patience like a monk with a megaphone. You want to be a pro? Then act like one. Cold streaks are not a glitch—they are a feature of professional gambling.

You don’t survive and thrive in this game because you never lose. You thrive because you don’t lose your mind when you lose.

🔁 Cold Runs Are a Guarantee—Not a Surprise

Let’s be real: Even with stellar ROR numbers…

  • ❄️ You’ll experience cold streaks EVERY month
  • 📉 You’ll see 0-20 runs
  • 😵 And yes, it’ll be painful if you can’t emotionally or financially weather the storm

But guess what?

🔥 Those cold streaks are ALWAYS followed by hot runs
📈 And if you stick it out, the math makes you whole
💰 The grind wins in the long run—every single time

🧠 Final Takeaway

Professional sports betting is a math game. It’s not about avoiding losses—it’s about managing them. If you…

  • Treat ROR like a casino does
  • Stop chasing
  • Bet like a robot
  • Trust the edge and let it play out

…you’ll make more money than 96% of bettors out there.

So chill out, stop pressing in cold runs, and let the numbers do their job.

👉 Need proof? The full TSP Portfolio logs and performance data are here:
TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/

Good luck, degenerates. You’ve got this—if you can just stay patient.