The below was originally published in TSP Live on Tuesday, November 26th. I wanted to publish it to the education section so it is there for reference. Let’s begin…
The TSP Portfolio is the core of TSP Live content, not necessarily by design, but because the majority of people don’t really want to read intel and assess analytics…and prefer just to blind follow something. I get it, so because of that I am working to “optimize” the Portfolio to better fit this style.
First, on the TSP Portfolio Performance page (https://thesharpplays.com/portfolio-performance/), you will now see stats for an “Advanced” Portfolio. The “Advanced” Portfolio will include wagers in the TSP Portfolio that come from TSP Insiders (Free and Paid) or are posted free/publicly (like the charity rollovers). The reason the Advanced Portfolio subsegment is separated is so that you can assess performance of the TSP Portfolio action that is delivered through TSP Live…and then see the portion of TSP Portfolio action that comes from “everything else” outside your TSP Live subscription…free (Telegram/Twitter/X) or paid (TSP Insiders).
The goal of this is so that those who don’t want to participate in TSP Insiders free/paid action, especially the paid purchases, will be able to assess performance of the TSP Portfolio wagers that are part of the TSP Live subscription. Thereby these folks who only want to stick to TSP Live Portfolio action can see the value they get for their subscription. Someone who feels this way would just look at the current year’s performance for the TSP Portfolio overall, subtract any Advanced Portfolio action, and the result of that equation would show you the performance of all wagers for the TSP Portfolio that were delivered through TSP Live only.
Second, to make assessing your wager size for the Portfolio easier, on the TSP Portfolio page (https://tsp.live/portfolios/), I now state that the suggested bankroll for the TSP Portfolio…so 100% of your bankroll…is 10 units. Ten units might see small, but assuming that the average TSP Portfolio wager is 0.10 to 0.20 units, it means that the average TSP Portfolio wager is 1% to 2% of your bankroll. Risking 1-2% of your bankroll on individual wagers is relatively standard for professional bettors. Usually the more aggressive pros will top out at 5% bankroll risk on any given wager. My hope is this stated bankroll structure will make it easier to decide on your bankroll and wager sizing…versus using multipliers and such any longer. I know the multiplier math was confusing for a lot of people, this should now make it pretty straight forward.
If a 10 unit bankroll is too aggressive and you can’t handle the ups and downs, use a 20 unit bankroll and maintain the same 1.3 to 1.6% average bet. So, instead of 0.13 and 0.16 units…you would wager 0.65% and 0.80% on each wager. Still too aggressive?
Let’s say you have a $10,000 bankroll. Today there is a wager of 0.1 units on a parlay. It means you would wager 1% or $100 on the parlay. Obviously, this is just an example and each person needs to assess their preferences and risk tolerances for themselves, but I am showing how I will now view the action.
Naturally, most actual and aspiring pro’s will ask…why not just make the bankroll 100 units and the average wager 1 unit? Simple…gamblers mentality. The biggest problem I have with the every day gambler is that they become emotional midgets over losses…even the smallest or most normal of betting fluctuations. So, -0.55 units is seen by the mind as a lot better than -5.5 units…and because of that it will tend to keep the casual gambler in a better frame of mind. Both -0.55 units out of a 10 unit bankroll, and -5.5 units out of a 100 unit bankroll, equate to the same -5.5% of the bankroll lost…an average losing day for most pro’s. So, yes…100 units and 1.3 to 1.6 units per average wager will return THE EXACT SAME ROI’S as having a 10 unit bankroll and risking 0.13 to 0.16 units per average wager. There’s no difference, except one will see a casual gambler keep their cool better, the other…they will lose their minds!
Lastly, please understand…my methods have achieved a bankroll ROI of +89% this year, +350% lifetime and wager ROIs of +16.3% lifetime and +8.9% in 2024. Both the lifetime and 2024 ROI’s are WELL BEYOND “exceptional” level for professional sports betting…which begins at 5.1%. I ABSOLUTELY WILL MAKE MISTAKES AND NOT DO THINGS BY THE TEXTBOOK…but please don’t waste my time reading messages about how I should do it differently. If you have a better way, send me all your plays every single day…minimum 500 wagers (TSP Portfolio averages 750+ wagers per year) and if you beat the TSP Portfolio wager ROI’s, then I will listen. Until then…I am open to feedback or sharing strategy, but if you are just looking to criticize…I am quite happy with the TSP Portfolio being the highest performing betting content in the sports service industry and the top 1% in the world for professional sports bettors.
I welcome any questions or feedback. I am sharing this in TSP Live first to get any feedback and then will post this or an edited final version to the TSP Live Education section for future reference.
I put this in this morning’s TSP Live post, but the responses had me cracking up. So, it’ll be a good little note to save on the website for the future…
On a separate note, I enjoy triggering haters. The difference between The Sharp Plays and 99.9999% of sports services/touts/handicappers out there is TSP does not pay my bills. TSP is a labor of love, a passion…a challenge. If TSP went away tomorrow, my life would not change one bit except I’d have a lot of free time. Yes, I have fuck you money (I apologize for being pompous) and an ability, due to gambling, to continually make more…the math from yesterday is simple to see…and while I love all of you, the income doesn’t rely on you! So, when a hater accuses me of being a fraud, I will double down…I will agree, I will like their post, and I’ll giggle like a teenager…because nobody cares…least of all me! Oh and if someone does believe a random idiot on Twitter/X…good, they are clearly a moron and there is no room on the team for morons. I SINCERELY appreciate your concern, but the haters have never and will never bother me or cause me to change. Honestly, I look forward to hater messages! When I see one I get a smile like the Grinch and can’t wait to play! I love there are people who can’t stop thinking about TSP! Rent free bitches…rent free!!!! LMAO
Some people have a misconception about betting ROI. Recently, I discussed how the TSP Portfolio had an ROI of +5.6% for the football season. People tend to think that means if you have a $10,000 bankroll that you made $560 this football season. It is the furthest thing from accurate.
In betting you have two important ROI’s that measure your quality. You have the “wager” ROI, which refers to the return on every dollar or unit RISKED. That’s a big difference from the other important ROI, which is your “bankroll” ROI. Bankroll ROI is simply your profit against your total bankroll. Here’s how dramatically different the numbers are…
TSP Portfolio’s current year (2024) wager ROI is +8.54%. It means for every $1.00 you bet…not what’s in your bankroll…you get back $0.0854 in profit. Doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s like being a casino. The house edge in roulette is “only” 5.26% (American Roulette). It means every dollar you bet on roulette, the casino will grind away $0.0526 from you…which is why the longer you play, the more you lose…every dollar…every spin…when broken out over the long term, the house ground away just over a nickel from you on every $1 on the table…again PER SPIN. As any gambler knows, those nickels they grind away from every dollar add up until you are eventually broke. It’s why you don’t walk up to a roulette table, bet every spin for an hour and are only down by 5.26% of what you bought to the table…you are usually broke after the hour. The above is the math is true for winning bettors…it just works in reverse in taking from the house versus losing to the house.
A +8.54% wager ROI does not mean if you had a bankroll of $10,000 that you made $854 in profit.
How powerful is a +8.54% ROI in gambling?
Let’s assume, because TSP Portfolio typically wagers 0.10 units as it’s standard wager, and mathematically for security you want 100 standard wagers of bankroll, that your bankroll is 10.0 units (0.1 units standard wager x 100 = 10). With that in mind, now realize the total unit profit in TSP Portfolio for 2024 is +8.73 units. Do you see it now? If not, I’ll show you…
If you take the +8.73 units against the assumed 10.0 unit total bankroll, it means your RETURN ON BANKROLL ROI is +87.3% in 2024….and +348.7% lifetime (TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/). So, our same friend with the $10,000 bankroll and a per wager risk of $100 ($10,000/100=$100 per wager) is up +$8,730 in 2024 following TSP Portfolio. The average mutual fund achieves 5-10% per year RETURN ON BANKROLL/PORTFOLIO! Meaning if you have $10,000 in a mutual fund, with a +10% ROI…you earned $10,000 that year. Yes………if TSP Portfolio were a hedge fund, it would likely manage every investment dollar in the world given its return on portfolio/bankroll!
Do you see the power of that perceived “little” +2%, +5%, +8%, +10%, wager ROI? Someone betting $1,000 per wager, meaning a $100,000 bankroll, has made $87,300 this year…not bad for a $6 per day subscription…with ZERO thinking involved…just following!
The math keeps going, if you have a $500,000 bankroll, meaning an average wager of $5,000, you made $436,500 this year…and $1,743,500 since January 1st, 2023…with no thinking…in exchange for $6 or less per day! Oh wait…you bet $10,000 per wager? You made $873,000 this year…and $3,487,000 since January 1st, 2023. See how a “little” +8.54% wager ROI adds up?!?!
My goal isn’t to convince the idiots in the audience that the TSP Portfolio is good…it’s to show those of you interested in learning how what seem to be very small wager ROI’s….like even the 1-2% that ChatGPT states most professional sports bettors achieve…may seem small but the profits add up when grinding that return on every single dollar/unit wagered/risked.
It all seems so easy, what’s the catch?!?!? Oh, it’s a big one…YOU ARE THE CATCH! Those of you who shit your pants when the TSP Portfolio is on a 2-13 run…or is 0-20 it’s last 20 wagers…and forget all the past performance leading up to that run. Those of you who can’t wait for the hot streak to come, so you press and chase aggressively in a cold streak and destroy your bankroll. Why? Lack of patience! Do you see why I preach patience every damn day?!? If you could just bet like a robot, not be a sniveling baby during EVERY FUCKING COLD STREAK or individual loss…and just ride the ups and downs, the above math shows the pot of gold at the end of the patience tunnel. It’s just so many of you will never survive the patience journey!
Just because TSP Portfolio has great performance numbers does not mean you won’t have PLENTY of ice cold runs throughout the year. Statistically, you should have 2 cold runs on average per month!! If you could just be patient during those cold runs…they are always offset by the eventual hot runs. If only more people had patience in gambling they would see the power of the above math…and might chill out a little when wagering.
The public has epic runs all the time; it’s just that their losing runs tend to be longer and more epic than any of their winning runs. However, from time to time, the public gets a BIG ONE! The “big ones” do not happen often though. The last “big one” for the public, that achieved the current level of performance was back in 2007 when the public just printed money in the NFL from the start of October and into November. Well, this current season…17 years later…the public is on another printing money run in the NFL that has equaled the 2007. If the public can cash again this week…it will eclipse the 2007 run and potentially be an “all-timer”.
The question people will ask is…did the public get smarter? Well, back in 2007, people asked the same question. People thought that computers, the Internet and the free flow of volumes of information on the games would make for smarter bettors. Did it? Well, since then the sportsbooks have made BILLIONS and BILLIONS and BILLIONS…so I would say that is not the case. For those who think this is now the time when the public has figured it out…I will say the same thing I said back then…NO CHANCE!
Diving into my sportsbooks records from my first year in the industry (1997), I see that point spread wagers placed by bettors rated as “casual” a.k.a. public bettors, cashed at 49.9%. Last year (2023), wagers placed by bettors classified as public/casual, cashed at 50.2%. So, in that way, over 26 years and despite all the technological advances, computer software, artificial intelligence, proliferation of sports services and sports gambling media, exponential expansion of the Internet and flow of information…public bettors have increased their performance by 0.3%. So, yes…the public has gotten bettor (in theory…because this win percentage will vary year to year), however the public needs to hit a minimum of 52.4% to turn a profit betting point spreads…still a touch off! LOL
At the current rate of performance increase, the public will achieve 52.4% in 125 years or 2149.
Best public performance since 1997 was in 2007…yes, that epic year when the public cashed at a rate of 51.1% across all sports and all point spreads. So, the public still lost overall since they need 52.4%, but the power they had in NFL pulled them up, along with success in NBA that year.
Worst public performance since 1997 was in 2008…yes…the year after the epic public run in 2007…can you say “regression”? In 2008, the public cashed at 48.7%.
Since 1997 the public win percentage each year has bounced between 51.1% and 48.7%.
Statistically, even in random environments…which is what public betting performance is, there will be statistical anomalies which veer way outside the normal variance. Epic public runs are these anomalies. What makes an “anomaly” and anomaly is the fact that they are RARE…but they happen. It is important to understand that “rare” is not the same as “never”. You are seeing a major anomaly right now…17 years after the last major one.
So, now that we accept that the public is on a run, albeit an ultra epic run, but that we also accept that the public will inevitably give it all back and then some…like they always have since the beginning of gambling back in roughly 3000 BCE…what strategy can we implement to take advantage of the expected and upcoming public regression run???
Well, there are some basics…
First, we will want to see what teams in the NFL the book needs to win/cover each week. If the public is going to lose and the books are going to get their money back, these “needs” will be the key wins the book has to get to see a momentum change.
Second, an added filter if you don’t like the idea of just blind betting Book Needs as a strategy for betting public regression would be to target angles where there is not just a book need, but where sharp money agrees with the book need.
Sounds easy enough because what to bet during public regression is pretty simple…FADE THE PUBLIC! The hard part is knowing the timing of when to begin such an attack strategy. While we cannot predict the future…and that’s why gambling exists…we can look for hints at a turn. What does these hints look like?
Well, yesterday, prior to the Monday Night Football game, I discussed in a TSP Live alert the following…
Since the public prefers favorites over dogs. Since the public likes the flashy teams over the underperforming teams (like Miami) you would assume the public is going to go in on the LA Rams…and so far that’s EXACTLY what they are doing…spread, moneyline, 1st Quarter, 1st Half, etc. It’s why you see this price was Miami +1 not that long ago, and now some books are up to +3…without any counter move in sight. You also see Miami was not on the Book Needs table all week and has now shown up there. It could be the sharps haven’t arrived yet because why not just sit back and let this price run to +3 around the whole market, let the highest limits hit, and then take Miami. and maybe get a very juicy +3.
None of this means the public’s hot run doesn’t continue, but the run is closer to the end than the beginning. So, I will take some shots here and there to try and get the turn and catch the run. There is no guarantee the public gets crushed tonight BUT it would be a great result for the book given the volume on the LA Rams if this was the one game that the book got beginning to end (1st Quarter, 1st Half, Spread, Moneyline, etc) and that means a Miami wire to wire outright win. Can they do it?!?!? Can the Dolphins make the day and put a cherry on top to what is only a slight profit for the books on the week? If they don’t some books will have a negative week in NFL…again.
The answer to the above was “yes”! Also, take note of the underlined sections…(1) the run is closer to the end than the beginning, (2) if this is the turn “it would be a great result for the book given the volume on the LA Rams if this was the one game that the book got beginning to end (1st Quarter, 1st Half, Spread, Moneyline, etc) and that means a Miami wire to wire outright win“. In the end, the books got the wire to wire outright Miami victory…
So, that’s what the turn tends to begin with…a good wire to wire beating on a major public play. Any other hints that a turn is upon us?
We can also look to past performance to gauge timing. If this week goes the way of the public then it will make this run the biggest public run in perhaps 30 years or more…since the only comparable run I have seen was in 2007 and my data goes back to 1995 (I got into the industry in 1997, but saved book data from 1995). So, if we assume the public won’t break the 2007 record…then this is the week to take a shot on public regression and likely look to target the public fade…and perhaps some of those fades, when targeting underdogs, by using the moneyline too!
We will see if the public breaks a record, but if they do not and this week provides some regression, then in the weeks ahead I will be looking hard at those Book Needs, and especially the Book Need + Sharp Buy combo bets!
Since people may not want to believe me, I asked an independent source the question and got their response. My independent source was ChatGPT and I asked the following question: “what is the average ROI for a professional sports bettor”. Here’s what ChatGPT said…
The average ROI (Return on Investment) for a professional sports bettor can vary widely depending on the individual’s skill level, strategy, sport, and overall market conditions. However, in general, a “good” ROI for a professional sports bettor is typically in the range of 2% to 5%. Let’s break this down further:
1. Low ROI (1%–2%):
Many professionals will be happy with a consistent ROI of around 1% to 2%. While this might seem low, in a field with high variance and the costs associated with betting (e.g., commissions, software, data, etc.), a 1%-2% ROI can still be quite profitable over the long term.
2. Moderate ROI (3%–5%):
An ROI in this range is considered excellent. Bettors who can consistently achieve a 3% to 5% ROI have likely mastered certain sports or betting markets and have access to high-quality data and analytics. These bettors are often experts in one or two sports and specialize in specific markets (e.g., player props, futures, or niche betting options).
3. High ROI (5%+):
Anything above 5% is very rare and would typically indicate exceptional skill, an edge in a particular market, or an advantage in finding inefficiencies that the broader betting community hasn’t noticed. These bettors may use advanced models, statistical analysis, or have insider information to generate their edge.
4. Factors Impacting ROI:
Betting Volume: High-volume bettors may have a lower ROI but make up for it with sheer scale. Conversely, low-volume bettors may have a higher ROI but fewer overall bets.
Sports/Markets Chosen: ROI can be better in niche or lesser-known sports with less efficient markets, whereas popular sports like NFL or NBA have very efficient betting lines, making it harder to find an edge.
Betting Strategy: Professional bettors who use sharp betting strategies, like value betting, line shopping, or betting with contrarian approaches, will often see better ROI than those who just bet based on intuition or emotion.
Bankroll Management: Proper bankroll management and avoiding “chasing losses” is key for maintaining a positive ROI.
5. Challenges:
Bookmaker Limits: As bettors become more successful, bookmakers may limit the size of their bets, which can reduce the overall ROI.
Edge Diminishment: The more a bettor wins, the more difficult it becomes to maintain an edge. This is because betting markets adjust based on new information, and lines become sharper.
In summary, a 2%–5% ROI is typically the target for a professional sports bettor, and even this requires skill, discipline, and a long-term perspective. It’s important to note that sports betting is inherently risky, and short-term losses can occur even for skilled bettors. A positive ROI over a large sample of bets is generally what separates a professional from a casual bettor.
So, you don’t have to believe me, ChatGPT says the typical ROI for a professional sports bettor is 2-5% and to quote ChatGPT, “Anything above 5% is very rare and would typically indicate exceptional skill, an edge in a particular market, or an advantage in finding inefficiencies that the broader betting community hasn’t noticed. These bettors may use advanced models, statistical analysis, or have insider information to generate their edge.“
You may have noticed the TSP Legal Pad has been quieter in recent weeks. When it comes to KB Consensus, I tend to keep these off the tables until an hour or two before the game at most. The reason is not to screw you…and nothing has changed with the methodology. So what’s different?
The Sharp Plays and TSP Live content is so good that many services/handicappers are subscribers here and steal the content to reuse as their own. When they do, they put it out to their own subscribers and people start moving prices…before the TSP Army can watch the action play out and then decide to move on a wager.
I recently did a test using the book’s consensus service report. One of the books I work with uses bots and other consensus service reports to create an “ultimate” consensus listing of Twitter cappers, handicapping services, media personalities, etc. to create a real-time updated list of what over 500 different handicappers/services are releasing for their plays each day. It allows the book to adjust lines based on expected action…follows and fades. I have noticed consistently that when I post a key bit of intel or angle, one that I know is attractive, say a group buy or a possible KB Consensus angle, that there are several dozen services which put out the same play as their own within the ensuing 5-15 minutes. It is now far too consistent not to be a coincidence.
It’s the old saying…if you can’t beat them, join them. Very few (perhaps ANY?!?!?) handicappers/services can beat the performance and quality of intel here at TSP, so they join TSP!
For example, if today I said there was a major group buy on San Francisco on Sunday (they aren’t playing BTW) and put that on the Legal Pad, but wanted to wait and see how the action played out because it was early, there are services who will report San Francisco as their own (Game of the Year, Lock, 10 unit wager, etc.) and before I decide to do anything with the wager…the price has already moved too much to make it a possible play anyway. It was The Sharp Plays intel, but these other services moved on it and now it is no longer a possible option for us to attack.
You might say…TSP…why don’t you release it as a wager/graded angle immediately so we can secure prices and then it is impossible for others to act first? I could, and there DEFINITELY will be times that I do, but I tend to like to see how further action plays out. Yes, that means I often do not get the best price…but TSP systems/angles/strategies target such high value that even grading the TSP Live Radar and KB Consensus on the closing price…which is usually the worst price possible…has resulted in a 55-60%+ long-term win percentage…which is unprecedented in sports gambling. Yes, that is impressive and EXACTLY why so many want to use TSP Live/TSP content because they can never perform better in any way on their own.
By waiting to act on TSP angles, intel and Portfolio wagers, I do forgo some line value and occasionally that bites us in the ass, but it also allows me to operate using the largest volume of information to make a selection (due to betting later and allowing the most information to drop). When others move on TSP intel/angles before I am ready to make my move, they push price beyond the limits of value and that creates a situation where we have to pass.
The good news is there are A LOT of easy solutions to this problem of getting skunked on TSP’s own intel/action, so this is not a major problem at all, but I just wanted to explain why I am not showing The Sharp Plays hand early in the week through possible angles, reporting of intel, etc…or now even early in the day like I used to. I know it can be a pain in the ass to get an alert 10, 30, 60 minutes before a game, but it also ensures nobody beats us to our own intel/action and we get the value because it is our intel/angles that everyone else wants to bet!
Further details to come, but just a heads-up as to the reason you might have been seeing a difference lately with less intel reported far in advance and more coming within the hours leading up to a game instead.
The TSP Index (https://TheSharpPlays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/) just moved into an uptrend after 16 days of downtrend. The typical run within the Index (uptrend or downtrend) tends to last around 7-10 days with 75% of runs ending within 14 days. A consistent run in the Index lasting 20+ days is considered “long”.
So, let’s say the average run is 7 days (also known as a “week”). If the average run is a week, that would mean every year you will experience 52 runs in your gambling (hot or cold). If we assume you win around 55% of the time, you would be expected to win 28.6 weeks of the 52. Let’s round up and say that’s 29…which means that you have 29 winning weeks and 23 losing weeks each year. So, you essentially only have 6 net winning weeks every year which provide the bulk of your profits.
Sure, typically an average winning week will see you win more than you lose in the average losing weeks…when you bet properly. So, you will grind additional profits by minimizing losses and maximizing wins. However, most people do not bet properly. Most people panic when losing and actually bet more per wager in cold streaks than they do in hot streaks…do you see the lunacy of that math? It is for the reasons in this paragraph that I stress patience. You can’t force a hot streak to come simply by betting big. Hot and cold runs are like good and bad weather. When the weather is bad, hunker down and bet tight. When the whether is good, get out and enjoy the blue skies and sun as you expand your betting risk. Only idiots go fishing in a hurricane. Sure, sometimes it pays off (ask Forrest Gump), but that tends to be the very rare exception rather than the rule. Don’t bank on exceptions.
The point of this article/lesson is to: (1) illustrate how tight the margins are in professional betting, (2) show that cold streaks are very common (23 of 29 weeks each year are cold) so they should not be a shock when you have them REGULARLY, (3) Maximizing wins in hot streaks and minimizing losses in cold streaks is essential to success as it further expands your profits, (4) the bulk of your profits come from those 6 net winning weeks out of every 52 weeks…again showing the importance of patience!
I get novices who bitch and moan all the time because they don’t just win money every day or there are several weeks in a row of losses. Sorry my friends…that’s the game. I am sure there is some unsavory tout who will tell you that all they do is win and then rarely have losing weeks…they are full of shit. Any professional will tell you this business is a grind. People love the movie and lifestyle of Matt Damon in Rounders, so take some advice from it! My favorite quote from that movie is on the front page of TheSharpPlays.com…
“Guys around here will tell you, you play for a living, it’s like any other job…you don’t gamble, you grind it out. Get your money in when you have the best of it, protect it when you don’t. Don’t give anything away!” – Rounders (1998)
How perfect and concise an explanation of professional gambling…it’s a grind and you need to minimize losses when you lack optimal setups and maximize wins when the setups are in your favor…don’t piss away units out of stupidity.
People also put very high expectations on how their performance as professional gamblers will go. When those expectations are not met…then I get the whining and complaining messages discussing how awful it is that we don’t just win tons of money every week or month. At the time of this article, what is clearly the most followed TSP content would be the TSP Live Radar (37-25 for 59.7% and +16.5% ROI), KB Consensus (4-1 for 80% for a +53% ROI), TSP Portfolio (+9.1% ROI in 2024, 1+6.9% ROI lifetime), Wolf (+17.6% ROI), Tony (+11% ROI), TSP Bot (+7.0% ROI). The average professional sports bettor’s ROI is +5%. The AVERAGE SPORTSBOOK HOLD (their ROI on the action they book) is +6 to +8%. All the TSP content listed in this paragraph provides a higher ROI than the average professional sports bettor and all but the TSP Bot provides an ROI higher than the average sportsbook. So, why own a sportsbook? Betting TSP content provides you a better ROI!
Yet despite the stats above, and the resulting performance delivered by The Sharp Plays, there are people who complain about the performance. I am not talking about haters who complain to complain…I mean real gamblers who do not realize how rare this type of performance is in gambling…yet complain that it isn’t good enough for them! People who literally have complained that they “aren’t winning enough”! IF THEY ONLY REMEMBER WHAT IT WAS LIKE TO BE A PUBLIC BETTOR WITH AN ROI OF -5% to -7%!! If you are a complainer…please go somewhere else and I will see you back in a year (or usually A LOT sooner) when you have bankrupted yourself betting and learned these lessons the hard way…coming to realize that TSP is indeed The Sharp(est) Plays around…and the education provided here is even sharper!
If you are a TSP Live veteran, you probably don’t need to read this…although it might be worth the 8-10 minutes as it could help to tweak your wager strategy and performance. For newbies looking to create their own portfolio strategy, versus just following the TSP Portfolio…because I recognize the Portfolio’s style may not be for everyone…I wanted to provide some thoughts.
Once again, the TSP Portfolio is tailored to the novice bettor with a more passive risk format. While the Portfolio ABSOLUTELY gets aggressive at times, it must have some house money in hand for that week/month to get aggressive…otherwise it grinds. A passive strategy may not be for some people, including novice bettors, so…for those looking to up the aggression…is there anything I would suggest?
First, it is important to say that NO WAGERING STRATEGY WILL PREVENT LOSING! When people ask me to assist them with a wager strategy they are always looking for some sort of mechanical wagering method where if they do X, Y and Z each day then it will be easily, simple, consistent. No such wagering strategy exists. You have to expect ups and downs…but if you are wagering on value angles and quality content, like that in TSP Live, the wins should outweigh the losses OVER TIME and that’s how you gain a profit. So, if the TSP Portfolio isn’t quite right for you, I will share some things you can tweak/change/incorporate to hopefully make a strategy that works for you.
The natural wagering evolution for a bettor, beyond just betting the TSP Portfolio (click here for more details) for the risk listed (what I would consider a Tier 1 bettor), is betting the other graded TSP Live content for a fixed wager amount. For example, many veteran gamblers/TSP Live subscribers will follow the Portfolio AND also bet the angles on the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus, Book Positions, Group Buys, High Level Book Needs, as well as any Algorithm Selections as straight bets for a fixed wager. When it comes to wagering the TSP Live Radar, I suggest checking the table 5 minutes before the game to verify the wager is still a valid play and then bet. Yes, you do not get the best line value BUT the TSP Live Radar is graded based on closing line…so you are wagering on the price being graded and resulting in the performance listed!
How much should your fixed wager amount be? You have to answer that based on your personal risk tolerance. There are those of you reading this who absolutely shit your pants and cry to me like a little baby when you lose 2 bets in a day. At the same time there are others who can lose 2-4% of their bankroll on a single game…before halftime…and let that roll right off their back and on to the next wagers. So, I can’t really help you on what risk is right for you, only you know that answer. Bettor’s tolerance for losses is the key to answering this question and bettors can have dramatic differences in their tolerances.
What I can say is that Tier 1 of wagering with The Sharp Plays involves just following the Portfolio. Tier 1 is basic, slow, methodical, passive…BUT provides a very healthy ROI and profit over the long haul. It is easy, requires no thinking…takes only a little time each day and you just rinse and repeat day after day. The good of Tier 1 is that it is simple with a strong long-term ROI. The bad of Tier 1 is that you are at the mercy of my novice style/strategy for the Portfolio…and some people don’t like passive betting. So, what can you do?
The Tier 2 strategy will provide a long-term profit, but every step where you are increasing your betting volume will open you up to more open risk and that means good days are a lot of fun…but bad days will see more losses than you would experience as just a Tier 1 bettor. It’s something you have to accept if you want to expand your volume. Once again, I can lose 10% of my bankroll in a day and say “oh well, that sucked…on to tomorrow.” A LOT of gamblers cannot do that. If you know you can’t just roll with a 10% losing day then Tier 2 may not be for you. Sure, we can all handle the 10% winning days, but handling winning is not usually a problem for gamblers. Handling the losses is the issue and what separates the Pro’s from the Joe’s.
Tier 3 of wagering with The Sharp Plays involves not just everything in Tier 2, but incorporating Tony and Wolf’s action. These are professional bettors and over time they will absolutely provide a net positive return, HOWEVER because you are further expanding your volume of betting, you are also further expanding your volatility. Winning days are epic and losing days can be very painful depending on the extent of the losses. Everyone can handle the good part of volatility…those BIG winning days. Very few people can handle the inevitable big losing days. If you can’t handle the big losers, then Tier 3 may not be for you.
Tier 4 of wagering with The Sharp Plays involves analyzing the free content that is out there like the 1st Quarter Algorithm, TSP Bot, etc. and making your own decisions on which of that content…or all of it…fits for you. I don’t even dive much into Tier 4 because the volume is just too much for me. I like low volume, high percentage wagers. I consider myself a Tier 3 bettor, but that’s because I have a very large risk tolerance and substantial betting fortitude. Don’t follow Tier 3 because I do it…you and I are two different…perhaps very different…types of bettors. Some of you would vomit at the losses on a bad day for me…others wouldn’t bat an eye. Again, I am stressing this point of assessing your personal risk tolerance because you should not just blindly follow someone’s style or just blindly follow content just because you want to emulate a person or strategy…you might not be able to handle it…and then you are no longer emulating them but messing with some sort of wacky hybrid strategy and that becomes a mess. Consistency in gambling in key. There is ZERO shame in acknowledging you are just a Tier 1 bettor. In fact, that’s great because you are being honest with what you can handle and that will make you a better bettor!
Not everyone has betting fortitude. Not everyone can view this as a long-term game. Some of you place one bet and then are suicidal in the first 5 minutes when your bet of Alabama +3 is down 7-0…already writing it off as a loss, ranting about how sports are fixed, cursing everyone and everything, etc. If this describes you in even the slightest of ways…stick to Tier 1 until you develop some betting fortitude and an understanding of professional betting realities. Once you get comfortable with the swings in Tier 1 and no longer sweat every single bet like your life depends on a win…then move to Tier 2. Take some time to get comfortable with Tier 2 and once you are rolling with the wins and especially the losses involved as being a Tier 2 bettor…then perhaps you are ready to move to Tier 3…if it interests you. If all goes well in Tier 3 and you want more…test out Tier 4 and cover all the content. If you get to any of these tiers and find it isn’t for you…no problem…just drop back down to the previous tier and spend more time there.
You know, it’s funny. Someone said to me recently that I must have a bunch of new customers in because I have been in rare form with my morning messages. Yes, as with any new football season a bunch of novices and rookies come out of the woodwork looking to turn their $1,000 bankroll into $100,000 by the end of September. I get it too…I was once one of them back in the 90’s during high school. Somehow I convinced myself that my $20 bets would lead to a steady weekly income where I could buy a car and have anything that a high school student could dream. When that sort of thing doesn’t happen…the novice feels the reason can’t be their stupid ideology about gambling that was the problem.
From April through July…there is no need for this sort of discussion. The people who are with TSP Live in those summer months are my people…true degenerates…veteran gamblers! They celebrate the wins, they brush off the losses, and they know this whole thing is a long-term game. A losing month…no big deal…the wins always come…that’s how a summer TSP Live subscriber operates. These true degenerates love the action, but they also trust the process and have patience. Come football season, a whole new batch of wannabe sports millionaires shows up. You can surely turn a very healthy income in sports betting…trust me, I know…but not without accepting reality…and being patient. Yes, 31 years ago when I placed my first bet offshore…underaged…I was a newbie too with an idea as to how gambling was “supposed to work” and that somehow despite my inexperience I would immediately be successful at a profession where the math is slanted strong against you…and math is a tough opponent.
I am not trying to be a dick by putting down these newbies…it’s more that I am trying to give them a blunt wakeup call. The goal being to open their eyes in a way nobody did for me in my early months and years gambling. In the process, I hope to save these newbies money and a lot of stress along the way.
These newbies come into something like TSP Live after having navigated social media for weeks, months and years…seeing all the bullshit pictures of stacks of money, big tickets and easy wins posted by so-called professional bettors. They see how some flashy idiot who has a Game of the Year every week just has racks upon racks of cash…so if that moron can do it…surely our newbie can too! The problem is, you are only seeing a small portion of the picture…but like a good drug dealer, the unsavory tout has sold you on the high, but left out the side effects. You would be surprised how many of the pundits and “professional bettors” who show up on TV and radio are losing degenerate gamblers who piss away money at a hysterical pace. I laugh when I see some “professional” brought on a TV or radio show as the hosts bow down to this person for their incredible gambling intelligence. Little do they know a friend at their favorite book told me how that guy is one of their biggest losers!
So don’t buy the hype. Accept and realize that sportsbooks and casinos have all the math on their side. DraftKings doesn’t have an EIGHTEEN BILLION dollar market cap because the majority of people win! No my friends, only 3-4% of gamblers qualify to earn the “professional and profitable” bettor badges! If you want to be one, you can get there, but you need to realize it will require effort!
Unlike those on social media who just want to suck you in by showing the glamour side to gambling…here at The Sharp Plays, the goal is to let you know about the side effects like losing, cold runs, large drawdowns, etc., because that’s a part of gambling. If you only want to see the good and don’t accept the bad…this whole thing will be a very bad road for you.
So, leave your preconceived notions about professional gambling at the door, come with an open mind and I can show you how much fun and profitable this business can be…but there will be losses…lots of them. It’s just over time there will also be wins…and the wins will outnumber the losses. Patience is a virtue and it is also the key to being a pro.
We all start somewhere! I started betting in the 90’s with an average bet of just $5. A big bet for me at the time was $20…and $50 was like betting a million! I called 1-900 numbers for “winners” from Jack Price, Johnny Demarco and MANY others…paying $10, $20, $50 per call…none of it worked. I kept losing and losing. I lost the hard way. Then someone tried to teach me the business when I got into the offshore industry in the late 90’s. I thought his ideas were bullshit as to how professional gambling worked…and I fought him HARD despite his incredible experience and success. Finally, I relented and did it his way…I have never had a losing year since and I realized that the power in winning at sports betting is not trying to win 60-80% of your bets…nobody does over the long-term. However, you can make MILLIONS with a 55% win percentage, a 5-6% ROI and some patience! Fast forward 30 years…and while I do not discuss numbers…my average bet is no longer $5, but an amount I never would have imagined achieving back in those early days. You can get there too!
Lesson #1: The TSP Index…the ULTIMATE sports betting barometer!
You will hear me talk about the TSP Index a lot! The TSP Index is the output of a calculation which assesses the performance of ALL the money across ALL leagues active that’s placed by public rated bettors and sharp rated bettors at two large offshore sportsbooks. How does it do this? Each sportsbook rates their bettors using various tiers of public and sharp rating. The ratings are done by the sportsbook’s systems based on a variety of factors and for every player in their system. My calculation, which is done automatically at the end of each day by a program, looks at combined ROI of all the sharp rated bettors who were in action for the previous day (both by league and overall) and compares it to the combined ROI of all the public bettors (again by league and overall) who were in action for the previous day. It then dials this performance down and rates it on a scale. The scale runs -5 to +5. A public market is negative, a sharp market is positive. Most markets will end up in the positive because the public as a whole always loses and sharps as a whole always outperform the public by comparison. However, even though the TSP Index reading might normally be a positive number, there are still fluctuations up and down that occur within that number. These up & down fluctuations help us to see which side of the market (public or sharp) is on a run. There is a moving average on the TSP Index chart which helps to see who has the momentum. Sometimes the TSP Index line is above the moving average which indicates sharps are on a run, sometimes the TSP Index line is below the moving average line which indicates the public is on a run. For more details, and to see the actual charting and data, visit TheSharpPlays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/.
All this might seem complex, but I do the job of reading the Index for you each day in TSP Live if you don’t want to do it yourself. You can find a TSP Index table on the TSP Live Dashboard (link in the website menu, in every TSP Live alert, on Telegram with every alert, on the home page, and directly at https://tsp.live/tsp-live-alerts/). Under the “Informational Links” menu on the TSP Live Dashboard page, you will see the second link contains “TSP Index” in it. Click that and scroll down for the TSP Index table. The table tells you the current trend of Index (UP or DOWN), what that trend means, my comments on the Index, and how each league is trending along with an indicator (1, 0, -1) that illustrates how active sharp money is in the league…details on the table itself. The TSP Index is a great tool, but if you are like the haters, you will dismiss it immediately because you can’t understand it. Followers who spend the time to monitor the Index will say that its predictive power for catching hot and cold runs right away is far too consistent to be dumb luck. The Index was the first analytical tool I launched at the website back in 2019 and it has been running every single day since for a reason!
The TSP Index operates on a theory I came up with when enjoying the casino games of craps and primarily baccarat. If you have ever played baccarat you know it is a game of playing the runs. You play the bank run, you play the player run. There are patterns to the game that players try to predict. In your own gambling, do you ever notice that you have runs where you can’t hit a bet and all the breaks go against you, and then that run is eventually followed by a run where you can’t miss a bet and all the breaks go in your favor? Every time you walk into a casino there is usually a point where you are up money because of this cyclical dynamic. Imagine if you had a tool that could give you a high probability of knowing when a hot run is getting started? You could expand you risk, you could press on games, you could take shots on more exotic wagers and ride the run! What if you could know that the first bad day is the start of a potential cold run…you could tighten up your action, have lower risk out there and protect bankroll. The TSP Index aims to provide this early warning system for your betting. Check it out at the links above!
Lesson 2: The purpose of reporting sharp buys, group action, and other intel along with having various analytics tables is to make you a more informed bettor, not to prompt you to place a wager on every bit of content published.
If you are new to TSP Live…for the first couple weeks after joining…just follow the action in the TSP Portfolio and ignore ALL THE OTHER CONTENT for wagering purposes. While you will be ignoring the other content for wagering purposes, please do not ignore all the other content altogether. Educate yourself on the other content through the resources on TSP.Live (there’s even an “Education” section at https://tsp.live/education/ which is also in the website menu) and TheSharpPlays.com. Then take the time to read through the alerts, learn the type of information that gets posted, check out the logs and records at TheSharpPlays.com so you can analyze the angles, view the analytics tables in TSP Live like the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus and Book Needs each day, learn about TSP Insiders paid and bonus content, etc….but when it comes to what you bet during the early days of being a TSP Live subscriber or TSP follower…just follow the TSP Portfolio wagers. The TSP Portfolio action is always in an easy to locate green box in every TSP Live alert. The Portfolio action is SPECIFICALLY designed for the novice bettor to be low risk, high reward/ROI and with low volatility.
After a couple weeks of educating yourself and reviewing all the content, or for some just a couple days, you will then have a good idea of how you prefer to view what gets reported as part of TSP Live and The Sharp Plays. You might see free and/or paid angles reported that you would like to add to your own betting portfolio and regardless of what the TSP Portfolio is doing OR you might decide that all the other content outside of the TSP Portfolio is not for you. Maybe you don’t quite understand it, maybe it seems like too much noise, maybe it all sucks to you…whatever! So, you decide to stick to the TSP Portfolio and that’s it. Perfect! Just decide how much you want to wager per 0.1 units of TSP Portfolio risk, ignore all the other content…and grind! It sounds like an excellent strategy to me because it sounds like it fits you…and that’s the key to any strategy!
I covered a couple lesson to get relatively up to speed on TSP Live. Now let’s discuss the key rules to being a professional or advantage bettor.
The first rule of sports betting as an advantage player is not to press or chase off a loss or during a cold run! Sure, we are all degenerates and we all will have little lapses in judgement, but the key is keeping those in check is VITAL to long-term success.
When I started as a bettor I was a total degenerate. There were times I chased on my bets (many times) until I basically could not bet anymore and ran out of credit and/or cash! Ugly shit, but most (likely all) of you know what I am talking about. However, as I became an advantage player, I began to have a different outlook on betting. I no longer saw the need to get even today because I trusted that as an advantage player, my run would be coming. So…no biggie that I lost today…maybe not tomorrow or the next day…but I will get mine! I believed that the cold run was a good thing because it meant another hot run was ahead…I just had to be smart and weather the ice storm to enjoy the heat once again.
There will likely be a lot of occasions in the future where you chase, but hopefully those chases are very minor compared to the past. I am absolutely guilty of chasing at times…still. However, the difference now than when I was a maniac is I have accepted the truth that today may suck, this week may suck, this month may suck, but things won’t always suck. Every day of cold action that I can survive is another day closer to the hot run. Going through a cold run is like counting down the days to Christmas as a child…it’s coming and each day passed is a day closer to paradise…and presents!! Like Christmas, a true hot run is a drug like no other…and why all of you are here…to savor those hot runs and all the profits, excitement, adrenaline, and dopamine highs that come with it!
Since going from total degenerate to partial degenerate, I have embraced patience over urgency to get even. I have embraced faith in the long-term performance of the content to provide me a hot run after every cold run. I trust that when the content delivers that hot run, it will erase my losses and provide me a sweet profit on top. The trust in the future has DRAMATICALLY removed the need/desire to chase in the present. Once you lose that desire to chase…gambling can be so much more enjoyable, less stress and profitable! Burning up bankroll by chasing during a cold run destroys your potential profit margin for the INEVITABLE hot run to follow!
The second rule is to accept gambling reality. The longer you hold inaccurate preconceived notions about how professional gambling works…the more financial pain, stress and frustrations you will experience in your betting.
The third rule is to get used to losing…because it is going to happen…A LOT! I have probably lost around 50,000 bets in my life! The good news is I have won more than I have lost and that’s the simple math that works in this game.
You MUST get used to handling losses. I recently had a discussion in TSP Live because of a handful of maniacs who were beside themselves due to losses in the TSP Portfolio during Week 1 of NCAAF. How big were these losses? Well, the Portfolio was down as much as 0.66 units in September. Not exactly a lot given the average bet lifetime for the Portfolio is around 0.16 units. Still…despite the incredible ROI for the TSP Portfolio…people just could not handle what is really a very minor loss.
When faced with losses, inexperienced gamblers automatically assume that something was done wrong. The goal of your gambling was to win…you did not…so you did the math wrong or didn’t analyze the games properly. No…that’s really not it. How about simply that in a game of luck, even the best gamblers and strategies will have losses. So, accept those losses and keep grinding…the wins always come in the end!
The other thing inexperienced gamblers tend to do is they want to search for a system that never has losses. These guys try to perfectly time the ebbs and flows of their betting. If you can’t handle losses in betting you are probably not experienced enough to perfectly time the ups and downs of the TSP index and know when is best to fade the sharps and follow the public. Instead, STOP THINKING! Stop trying to do something that is IMPOSSIBLE in gambling which is removing losses. Find a winning strategy, be happy that because you have a winning strategy that you are better than 96 out of 100 people you see in the sportsbooks…and just ride the good and the bad…knowing that everything will workout fine in the end!
The TSP Portfolio truly blows away ANY gambling content ANYWHERE. The wagers are logged, the results are calculated and the ROI blows away all the competition. Not to mention, following the TSP Portfolio takes less THAN FIVE MINUTES EACH DAY!! Last year saw losing months of -3.37 units, -3.11 units, -1.90 units and yet the Portfolio is +33.8 units lifetime…the method works. There will be losses, but the Portfolio will eventually grind those losses back and put some profit into our pockets on top!
As I told someone recently…you have Margot Robbie in front of you…and she is all yours. Stop trying to make her hotter or sexier…just enjoy what you have! It doesn’t get better than the TSP Portfolio…you can search…you’ll eventually see for yourself. So, stop trying to lessen the losses of content that has a lifetime ROI over +17%! It’s light years away from the next profitable service out there. It does not get any better, just sit back and ride the ups and downs! Stop trying to make Margot sexier.
There’s not a lot of advanced strategies and techniques here because this is the “newbies guide”. However, if you can master the simple things in this article…your time as a newbie will be brief and you will have a strong head start to being a consistent and long-term profitable bettor…earning that legitimate “Professional Gambler” badge that is so coveted among degenerates.
We have arrived at the first full week of regular season football action! It is time to say it one more time…
The season will be filled with some incredibly epic winning weeks…I cannot wait! Those weeks when everything you bet turns to gold and you have parlay tickets all riding on one last bet…and that bet comes through which exponentially expands your profits in one hot weekend! It is as exciting as gambling gets and it is the reason all of us are here together right now!
However, it’s not all roses no matter how good you are. Last year, the TSP Portfolio achieved an over +18% ROI, but still had losing months in 2023 and had a losing November during football. There were bad beats & bad breaks followed by bad beats & bad breaks, followed by bad beats & bad breaks…you get the idea. Even this year, the TSP Portfolio has not had a losing month in all of 2024. Maybe it can survive 2024 without a losing month…or maybe one or more is coming. We just don’t know…so we can’t bet as though we know the future. However, a losing month is not the end of the world!
Last year people quit the content after a winning September & October was followed by a losing November…and those folks then missed one of the most epic Decembers EVER! Don’t try to time the runs…don’t leave when it is cold. If you leave when it is cold all you are doing is guaranteeing that you won’t be here for the inevitable hot run that gets it all back and then some…because gambling is nothing but a series of alternating hot and cold runs.
Be patient, be disciplined and realize that even if today sucks, tomorrow might not…so don’t blow up your bankroll chasing today! I have no doubt it will be yet another winning season of The Sharp Plays content (13 years running since TSP content came online in 2011), but how we get to that profit is anyone’s guess. Whether it is through 6 straight winning months of football, or 5 losing months and an epic month in the mix…there’s a very high confidence there will be a nice profit in hand when the dust settles on Super Bowl Sunday!
Thank you for joining me on this journey and good luck in your action! Let’s have some fun together once again this season…sweating the wins and venting the losses…together!
