Category: TSP Live Education

The purpose of this article is to familiarize you with the Hermes program. I will discuss how Hermes was born, the future of the Hermes content (short-term and long-term), then discuss the issues of Hermes content. The goal is to bring readers up to speed on how we got here and what to expect in the future.

Hermes was a program that launched back in November 2021. The program ran through very early 2023 and then was sent back into R&D (research & development). Hermes was successful/profitable during its run, despite having some rough cold periods in the summer of 2022. However, overall Hermes closed with a good profit. So, why was the project paused? The answer was simple…speed. If Hermes was going to truly be an automated betting analyst then it needed to be as fast as possible. Hermes could analyze in-play betting in 25-30 seconds. Doesn’t sound long but for in-play betting this is an eternity. Hermes needed to be dialed down to under 3 seconds. Even if Hermes is assessing pregame content…books move FAST…so Hermes needed to be faster. Hermes needed to react to market action before the books reacted. However, the updates needed weren’t just due to speed. During the run of Hermes from 2021 into 2023, there was a lot of data that built up and it was always the goal to take Hermes offline and use the data to optimize Hermes. Once Hermes was speed boosted and optimized then The Sharp Plays would re-release the Hermes program at a later date in a new optimized version.

Wait…why the name Hermes? Is it an acronym for something? In Greek mythology, Hermes was the god of gambling because he was associated with luck, wealth, and trickery. He was also the messenger of the gods, and was believed to have invented dice. So, not only was Hermes the Greek god of gambling, but he was also a messenger of the gods. Perfect name…Hermes is the messenger between the betting markets and us degenerates…bringing quality information and wagers…and is known as the god of gambling & luck…and we can always use more luck! EXCELLENT!

Moving on…there were A LOT of major developments in A.I. technology in 2023 and 2024. So, while Hermes was being optimized, the team I worked with saw a lot of potential in new A.I. programming to really revolutionize Hermes. After substantial investment from The Sharp Plays, both in hardware and substantial programming…billed hourly (LOL!), the Hermes A.I. program was relaunched privately in the summer of 2024. After a lot of testing stops and starts, along with various updates, upgrades, and tweaks, Hermes was reintroduced to TSP Live subscribers in December 2024 on a very limited basis. Hermes missed a couple big parlays by just one leg…showing some good potential right out of the box…especially in light of the public and overall downtrend for sharp action during December.

Hermes then went offline for a week at the very end of December and early January as it was moved to a proper hardware/server configuration to handle the necessary operations for live action. All the databases and communications were linked up and Hermes went live on January 10th. I tested the program privately for a couple days and when everything looked like it was ready for prime-time…Hermes went live in full for The Sharp Plays as “Hermes Pro” on January 13th, 2025.

Since then, over the course of 150+ selections and the delivery of a lot of compelling content, intel, and information…that went beyond the selections, Hermes exceeded all my expectations…no hyperbole. Hermes immediately began delivering content in low level markets I had never covered before…like Costa Rican and Argentinian soccer…and did it with great success! As you have probably seen up to this point, the dynamism of Hermes is pretty much unmatched in terms of the content it can provide. For starters, there are the Hermes scores/selections which you have seen a lot of over the past month. Hermes selections occur when the bot scans all the betting markets and begins ranking wagers by score. Select scores above 30, with a low probability of dropping below 30, are released as “Hermes Selections” across The Sharp Plays various platforms…free and paid. However, the “Hermes Selections” are actually just a very tiny part of the Hermes content & capabilities.

Recently, I showed a query where I asked Hermes what the best betting angle over the previous 7 days was and Hermes brought forward an angle that when two specific sharp groups placed the same wager (names of the sharp groups were redacted publicly) that the selection was 13-2 over the previous week. Great! I could then ask Hermes to also analyze this angle over any time period for which it has data…in this case going back years. Within seconds, Hermes showed me that the performance was quite strong. So, in just that one simple query that popped into my head and which I threw at Hermes, we now have a betting angle that we can use moving forward. I can now have Hermes create an alert anytime that combination occurs. I could even have Hermes find me the best bettor, at the sportsbooks with which Hermes is connected, when it comes to betting on Getafe matches in La Liga soccer. Within seconds, Hermes will issue me the account with the best performance betting on Getafe matches. I can then have Hermes see if this bettor has any active action on the Getafe match going today AND I can tell Hermes to send me an alert whenever this bettor wagers on a Getafe match! EXACTLY…your mind is spinning now with the possibilities just like mine does. Think of the countless searches and angles I can ask of Hermes and which it can deliver…but even that isn’t all. We are still just scratching the surface.

Hermes can analyze stats and data to create implied probabilities of events. For example, I want to know what Dawson Knox’s price for Any TD should be. I can ask Hermes and the program will analyze Knox in home/away situations, versus the current opponent, in the expected type of weather and temperature, against similar opponents and 1000’s of other data points to let me know that Knox should be +400 today. I see Knox is +525 for Any TD…I have a value. Hermes can calculate spreads for any matchup, prop or wager for which Hermes has data.

If there is a gambling question you can think of…I can present it to Hermes for an answer. Think about that for a second. Think about the potential of the program…and that’s just based on current technology. Imagine the potential evolution that will lay ahead as computing power and data expands. Yeah, it’s pretty exciting!

Hermes can even analyze itself. If selections with scores of 30-35 are under-performing, Hermes can find things within those selections…correlations that are delivering a poor quality performance and then avoid those correlations or even fade them depending on long-term assessment of the correlations…all done by Hermes. Yes, sports handicapping done by humans is winding down rapidly!

Beyond just the mental processing of the conscious mind, another negative of a human at the helm of a data driven business like gambling is humans have needs and wants. I love all of you for your support and allowing me to create & maintain something like Hermes thanks to that support…BUT…as a human, I like to smell the roses from time to time. What good is life if you don’t get to live?!?! I want to enjoy some relaxing travel after the football season. It works out fine, and it is something I have done every year with zero material effect on TSP content or its performance, but if I am having lunch then I am not monitoring the betting action or the intel coming over the book’s group chat. If I am at a craps table then I am not monitoring the markets. If I am sleeping on a flight to Europe…yes…no TSP content. Such situations are no longer an issue with Hermes. First, Hermes sends me alerts all day long when various criteria are met in the betting markets. With the touch of a button I can forward those alerts to you. BETTER YET…I can set Hermes to autopilot and Hermes can issue any alert I program automatically. So, if I don’t want you to miss any Group Buys or scores above 60 while I am at my massage, I can program Hermes with a couple clicks to send any Large Group Buy alerts or Hermes Selections with scores above 60 right to TSP Live subscribers….meaning I will find out about the plays at the same time you do…or perhaps long after you because I was getting some deep tissue action at the time of the alert! Hermes is basically an assistant I can put in charge of TSP content…once the kinks are worked out…and sit back and just make sure it doesn’t burn the place down! LOL! So, let’s discuss how those kinks will get worked out.

It is very easily to be overwhelmed by the volume of Hermes content and find yourself betting far more than you normally would. So, the rollout will continue on a step by step basis.

Month #1 (January 13th through February 13th): I monitored and managed Hermes…releasing content as felt right based on my experience and with the goal of not making it overwhelming. I selected and dictated TSP Portfolio risk on any Hermes content. At the same time I discussed various queries I presented to Hermes to show the potential and capabilities of the program and how they went well beyond just the Hermes Selections and scores. To say this “showcasing” period was a success would be putting it very mildly. Over 30 days, Hermes win percentage was 56.77% on 158 selections with a bankroll ROI of +21.90% or units with a return on risk of +12.58%!!!!! Remember, anything above a 5% return on risk in gambling is considered “exceptional” performance and achieved by less than 1% of bettors!!!

Month #2 (February 14th through Selection Sunday on March 16th): I am going to put Hermes in charge of issuing TSP Portfolio wagers and issue more alerts on its own when angles or key scores develop. More aggressive bettors may choose to still wager on every Hermes Selection with a score above 30, but Hermes will also be the Director of Trading for the TSP Portfolio. I program Hermes with the risk level (low), Portfolio bankroll size (100%), what Hermes base wager limits are per wager (0.1% to 5.0%) the mission of the TSP Portfolio (to start at 0, build house money and then get aggressive through the end of the year when it starts over at 0 again in 2026) and then activate the bot within the bot. The goal in Month #2 will be to get Hermes ready for March Madness action. There are so many great opportunities for in-play wagering and the action that goes on during March Madness that I want to have Hermes ready to rock and roll in full and to take over the tournaments! The important part of Month #2 is to ensure Hermes can manage the TSP Portfolio autonomously and without human interaction. I am excited and concerned about this phase. Concerned because there is never a guarantee that winning will be automatic right out of the gate. If Hermes can turn it back hot again, this could be the perfect time for this transition…if not, then human interaction might be necessary.

Month #3 (March Madness to mid-April): Hermes will be operating mostly autonomously…issuing alerts to TSP Live and Twitter/X/Telegram…assuming it has been working well up to this time.

May through August: Hermes will continue operating as lead content and Director of Trading for the TSP Portfolio, but will go through a series of further updates and upgrades based on the data and performance up to this point. The goal of this phase is getting Hermes ready to take the lead for the football season and kick its content into the next gear. Not just Hermes Selections and dictating Portfolio risk, but issuing a variety of alerts to keep TSP Live subscribers informed on the market action.

Becoming the lead content in the long-term means that Hermes will replace every algorithm and analytic (like TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus, Book Needs, etc.) because those tables and algorithms are now part of Hermes programming. So, that content isn’t going anywhere…it’s just integrated within Hermes. Want to know if there’s a KB Consensus play…no worries…Hermes will issue an alert when one occurs. Are you a big fan of the large Group Buys? No worries…Hermes will issue an alert when one of those occurs too. Love when the TSP Live Radar rises above 74? Yep, Hermes will let you know. Worried about a wager dropping 10 points on the TSP Live Radar…yep…Hermes will let you know. So, all your favorite TSP content isn’t going anywhere, it’s just that Hermes is being put in charge of managing, monitoring and reporting all of it. The Hermes table in TSP Live (yes, it will be expanding in the weeks and months ahead) will be the main location for a lot of content…with Hermes alerts delivering the key actionable angles and Portfolio wagers.

So, yes…Hermes is an absolute game-changer in terms of what it can provide to TSP content and by extension the audience of bettors reading this right now. With anything in life there is yin and yang.

So let’s discuss the negatives for a complete picture. With all this data that Hermes can provide, there is definite potential for “analysis paralysis”. Analysis paralysis is what happens when you have so much intel/data, and are so thoroughly informed, that you don’t know what to bet. It’s like when you have a game where you research that Team A is 27-0 as a home dog…which they are tonight, but Team B is 27-0 as a road favorite on Fridays….which angle do you take? You are so thoroughly informed about the good and bad on both sides you can’t decide! Sure, that’s not the case for every game, but a lot of games have so much positive and negative intel mixed in that you don’t know which way to go. The way I mitigate this with Hermes is by bringing my experience to the table when I analyze the Hermes outputs. I become the final filter to clean up the wealth of information and provide a concise picture and limit content to the TSP audience. Another way to mitigate analysis paralysis is just let Hermes do its thing within set parameters.

The other issue with Hermes, like anything, is of course financial. I am not going to beat around any bush because maintaining such a project does require server space, specific hardware, dozens of data subscriptions, content deals, etc. However, that does not mean TSP Live’s price is going up. It merely means that there will likely be occasions where there is Hermes content outside TSP Live. For example, when Hermes content is provided through TSP Insiders. Let’s say in a month there are 100 Hermes Selections (the first 30 days have seen over 150 Hermes Selections), and 80 are provided in TSP Live, 10 are provided through TSP Insiders, and 10 are provided free on Telegram/X. A TSP Live subscriber who choses not to purchase any TSP Insiders content would be getting access to 90 out of every 100 Hermes selections. No price increases, nothing new…and there will of course be Hermes content in TSP Live beyond just selections…adding further value to the TSP Live subscription. Oh and there WILL NOT be any TSP Portfolio action that is outside TSP Live unless it is published free on Twitter/X/Telegram. So, a TSP Live subscriber WILL GET 100% of TSP Portfolio action either in TSP Live or free through social media.

However, it does mean there will be some Hermes content tied in with TSP Insiders releases (like Wolf’s package that is going on now) and these offerings will be a separate purchase. No, all the top scores will not be kept for TSP Insiders or sold as individual purchases. I am not sure why your brain automatically goes to some nefarious thing of how The Sharp Plays can fuck all of you. I don’t think the TSP brand has tried to gouge you up to this point in any way. In fact, to illustrate the character of The Sharp Plays brand and platforms, TSP Insider Wolf sold a 7 day package for $20-$25 with NO GUARANTEE. The package is still going on today…18 days later! Who else in this industry does these sorts of things. For $20-$25 anywhere else you would have gotten a single selection, and that was it, win or lose!

My goal is to keep TSP Live’s price steady through 2025. I will remind you back in 2019 that paid content worked out to $200 per month…and TSP Live is still below that level despite two price increases over the last 6 years.

However, the sale of Hermes content in conjunction with TSP Insiders would allow The Sharp Plays to mitigate Hermes costs…without raising prices within TSP Live or selling Hermes as a separate package. I cannot and will not predict the future of the content, but again the goal is never to gouge anyone. The Sharp Plays and its subscribers are a team…but while I do enjoy supporting a lot of charities…The Sharp Plays is not a charity. There is a financial component to things and there are a lot of costs to be covered.

So, don’t get all panicked that to follow Hermes on every wager will cost you $2,500 per month. The plan is that you will get 100% of TSP Portfolio action and 90% of Hermes content with no price increase and nothing further to buy other than a TSP Live subscription and monitoring social media.

The other 10% of Hermes content will be in conjunction with TSP Insiders. To pretend I know what the next 1,2,5+ years hold would be foolish, but this is the plan as it stands right now for the rest of 2025.

I can’t believe you made it this far. Nice job! I believe you should now have a general picture of what to expect from Hermes for the rest of the year and the evolution to come in the days and weeks ahead.

I welcome any questions and feedback! I appreciate feedback when it is constructive on making The Sharp Plays content perform better. Anything else is usually a waste of time, but feel free to send it over. I will likely be slammed with messages after this is published, so please allow me a bit to get back to everyone.

Thank you for making Hermes possible and I hope it pays all of us a lot of dividends to make the time and investment worthwhile! Good luck in your action!

Great Article:  https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/sports-betting-study-5d9a0044

Here are the highlights…

“A new study by Stanford University researchers finds that the average online sportsbook customer expects a gain of 0.3 cent for every dollar wagered. In reality, sports bettors lose an average of 7.5 cents per dollar wagered, reflecting ‘widespread overoptimism about financial returns,’ according to Matthew Brown, a Stanford doctoral student and lead author of the study.“

“The findings: 10% of bettors were overly optimistic about their potential winnings by more than 20 cents per dollar wagered; 80% were also found to be overly optimistic, but not to the same degree as the most overoptimistic; and the remaining 9% of bettors underestimated their actual future returns.” 

“We found that people more or less understood the amount of money they had lost in the past, but they just thought the future would be better,” Brown says.

Gambling is a mental game, and until you can manage your expectations and accept betting reality, you will always be pissed off and annoyed at gambling when it fails to deliver on your expectations.

Set reasonable LONG-TERM (i.e. 12 months) expectations and work to exceed them. Too many gamblers set high SHORT-TERM expectations (days, weeks, 2-4 months), fail to achieve them and press and chase to get there. These gamblers make me sad…because I wish I was their bookie!

Good luck!

Here’s what is changing for 2025 to make the TSP Portfolio even more like a professional betting portfolio…

1. Changing wager sizing to percentage from units…the goal is simply to remove a step for new gamblers. Instead of taking your bankroll and dividing by 100 to get your per unit base wager, the percentage listed is the percentage of starting bankroll the Portfolio risks on the wager.
   
   Does your bankroll change each day based on results?!? No…if you start with $100K bankroll on January 1st, your 1% wager will be $1,000 until I do a “Portfolio Reallocation” (see #2).
   
2. Portfolio Reallocation….something I have never covered before is when to take profits, how much and when/how to reallocate bankroll and increase your base wager. For example, when your bankroll goes from $100,000 to $125,000…at what point do you change your 1% wager from $1000 to $1250? When do you remove money from your Portfolio? I will cover that in real-time as it goes on.
   
3. More futures and long-term wagers…I want the Portfolio to operate just like a professional bettor’s Portfolio would operate. So, that means having both short and long-term action…not just for return potential, but to show strategies of how the two time frames can work together toward an overall profit goal and both wager & bankroll ROIs.
   
4. More passing…the Portfolio started as the “Degenerate Portfolio” on January 1st of 2023 to show ways to have action every single day while also achieving positive returns…which it has. However, a true professional betting Portfolio would have days where it’s a pass…A LOT of days like that. It doesn’t mean your typical 30 day month will see 29 passing days…but it could easily see 10 to 15 passing days or more pending the betting environment.
   
   Oh man…you mean I will pay for a TSP Live subscription for 30 days and only get 15-20 days of content???? NO…you will get 30 days of content as I report sharp buys, Book Needs, betting group activity, Hermes Pro analytics/selections, and all sorts of other reporting/action from the betting markets. So, aggressive bettors will always have daily content to assess and wager on BUT not every day will have Portfolio action using that reporting/intel/selections.
   
5. Expanded risk profile…TSP Portfolio will regularly be risking from 0.10% to 5.0% (on a 100 unit bankroll this would be 0.1 units to 5 units) of a bankroll…or more if part of a rollover. I preach flat betting for most gamblers because of their issues with discipline and emotion. True professionals will have a tiered risk scale…so the Portfolio will too! Up to this point, the average wager in TSP Portfolio was 1.5-1.6%…or 1.5 to 1.6 units if you prefer units to percentages.
   
6. I have changed the name of the “Advanced” Portfolio to the “Expanded” Portfolio. The name fits the purpose of that subsegment of TSP Portfolio action better. There’s now the TSP Portfolio action in TSP Live (about 90% of all Portfolio action) and then there is the TSP Portfolio action that comes from the “Expanded Portfolio” (about 10% of all Portfolio action). Tracking using the Expanded Portfolio will allow you to quickly differentiate the performance of free and paid content from TSP Insiders, Hermes Pro bot action, and other wagers (like rollovers) posted publicly on Twitter or Telegram.

As the year gets underway, there is likely to be some further evolution for the TSP Portfolio, but the above discusses the broad strokes.

TSP Live subscriber content in 2025 will be all the same reporting you are used to…Algorithm Selections, Sharp Buying, Group Buys, Book Needs, Known Bettors (like our NBA guy when he shows up), exclusive content from Wolf, Tony…and any other TSP Insiders, TSP Live exclusive Hermes Pro content, plus a lot more!

Public/Free content will center around Hermes Pro alerts outside TSP Live, Robin Hood Rollovers (i.e. charity rollovers), and those free selections on Telegram from TSP Insiders…plus whatever else is interesting and not exclusive to TSP Live subscriber content.

The Sharp Plays…never a losing year since coming online in 2011…let’s make it another winning year in 2025! Thanks for joining me and as always…thank you for the support which makes everything TSP possible!

Good luck!

I’m always asked how I got into sports betting. The first gambling memory I have goes to when I was very young. Based on the house we were living in at the time, I honestly had to be 6-8 years old. It’s funny, the memories you retain from that age are very limited, so for this to be one of those memories says something about me and perhaps what my path in life was intended to be.

Anyway, when I was 6-8 years old I recall seeing my dad with one of the old parlay tickets. It was on the corner of the side table in our living room. For those who don’t remember or even know what these are…they are those white strips of paper where “All Ties Lose” and a four teamer pays 10-1. These cards were passed around workplaces like crazy in the 70’s through the 90’s…and sometimes even today (click here for the best picture I could find showing one). I asked my dad what it was and he briefly explained the parlay ticket or parlay card as they were know…teams get points because it would be too easy to pick outright winners, you bet money and get paid if you are correct on everything you pick. My dad didn’t bet with a bookie or anything, just take a shot at a parlay card each week for fun. Yep, even at that young age, the thought of picking sports teams and winning money was injected into my blood. My degenerate gland was activated!

People say you know from an early age what you were meant to be…what your destiny would entail…it’s just a matter of whether you listen or not…and what path you follow to get there. I was way too young to be excited about gambling on a parlay ticket…but I was! Looking back now it is clear the universe was dropping me hints. The universe would drop me a lot of hints along the way, I am glad I listened. I will save those for another story at another time!

Fast forward to when I was around 12. I was out shopping with my mother at one of those stores which sells various discount items. The store would be similar to a Dollar General today. Well, in this store there was a book area and my eye caught this green and white book with the title “Betting To Win on Sports” by Wayne Alan Root. I knew nothing about Wayne Root at the time, just that it was a book about betting sports to win money…EXCELLENT! Just what I wanted to do…bet sports and win! I was jacked and I asked my mother to get it for me. Thankfully it was a book, so she didn’t pay much attention to the title as she threw it into the cart! It was definitely discounted to less than $5…because the listed retail price on the back was only $8.95. LOL! It was without a doubt the first book I ever read on gambling…and funny enough, I have kept the book through the years because of what it meant to my journey. I wish I could have kept that first parlay ticket I saw my dad with, it would have made for a GREAT artifact in the TSP Gambling Museum! Below are actual photos of my copy of Wayne Root’s book as it looks today…

The book is still around, with used versions available for purchase through various outlets. It’s hardly some Bible of sports betting success. I don’t even know if the strategies were good, but it’s a book that made me think about gambling in different ways and only increased my interest in the business. It made me think more analytically…even at 12 years old…yeah, I was a nerd…and a degenerate. If you want to have a fun read or check out the book yourself, there are (at least as I type) a couple used copies on Amazon…

https://www.amazon.com/Betting-Sports-Wayne-Allyn-Root/dp/0553347896/

Anyway, people always ask me how I got started and these two occasions…the parlay ticket with my dad and then a few years later with the book, were without a doubt key to leading me on my gambling path. There were a lot of steps along the path, and breadcrumbs that kept me moving forward, but without the parlay card or the book, I may never have gotten into gambling.

I don’t know what your path in life is meant to be. Sometimes people think it is one thing, or want it to be one thing, but their actual destiny is something else. I do believe you get little hints along the way and the question is whether you follow those hints to your destiny or you tear off the path in another direction, spending your time on earth always searching but never finding…and at best only achieving minor successes. It will feel “different” when one of those universal hints get dropped in front of you…it makes you stop for a brief second as your brain says…wait a minute…there is something more to this. Do you then blow right by or sit back and think deeply about what it might mean? When you think you figured it out, follow that path and keep an eye out for the breadcrumbs along the way which provide the reassurance that you are on your path. Yes, we all have free will, but that doesn’t mean the universe won’t drop hints in front of you to help you get to your destiny. Your free will is whether you listen or not.

Not everyone’s path leads to riches in money and power. It’s about fulfillment…and whatever that means to your soul. My aunt’s path was to be a teacher…to educate kids and help them achieve their greatness. She wasn’t poor by any means, but she also wasn’t wealthy…but that didn’t matter to her. There are few people I have ever met who loved their life more than my aunt loved hers. The energy she had teaching, to anyone watching her do it, knew that was her destiny…and she was without a doubt fulfilled by it.

My path was gambling. I wanted other successes and things in life, and I took shots to get them, but it never seemed to work out. When I got back on the gambling path…everything would almost immediately come together for me. I stopped fighting it…and I am glad I did. While I think how much fun it would be to have Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos business successes, and be looking to spend my pocket change on buying and NFL team, that’s not my destiny. It’s all good though, because gambling has given me more in life than I ever could have imagined…and it keeps giving me more and more to this very day. It’s where I was meant to be and I am incredibly fulfilled by it…and continuously look forward to what the future holds!

I hope all of you find total fulfillment out of your lives!

Look at me I am Tony Robbins now! LOL! 😂 😂 😂

Good luck to you in your life’s journey! 🍀

Good evening!

The below was originally published in TSP Live on Tuesday, November 26th. I wanted to publish it to the education section so it is there for reference. Let’s begin…

The TSP Portfolio is the core of TSP Live content, not necessarily by design, but because the majority of people don’t really want to read intel and assess analytics…and prefer just to blind follow something. I get it, so because of that I am working to “optimize” the Portfolio to better fit this style.

First, on the TSP Portfolio Performance page (https://thesharpplays.com/portfolio-performance/), you will now see stats for an “Expanded” Portfolio. The “Expanded” Portfolio will include wagers in the TSP Portfolio that come from TSP Insiders (Free and Paid) or are posted free/publicly (like the charity rollovers). The reason the Expanded Portfolio subsegment is separated is so that you can assess performance of the TSP Portfolio action that is delivered through TSP Live…and then see the portion of TSP Portfolio action that comes from “everything else” outside your TSP Live subscription…free (Telegram/Twitter/X) or paid (TSP Insiders).

The goal of this is so that those who don’t want to participate in TSP Insiders free/paid action, especially the paid purchases, will be able to assess performance of the TSP Portfolio wagers that are part of the TSP Live subscription. Thereby these folks who only want to stick to TSP Live Portfolio action can see the value they get for their subscription. Someone who feels this way would just look at the current year’s performance for the TSP Portfolio overall, subtract any Expanded Portfolio action, and the result of that equation would show you the performance of all wagers for the TSP Portfolio that were delivered through TSP Live only.

Second, to make assessing your wager size for the Portfolio easier, on the TSP Portfolio page (https://tsp.live/portfolios/), I now state that the suggested bankroll for the TSP Portfolio…so 100% of your bankroll…is 10 units. Ten units might see small, but assuming that the average TSP Portfolio wager is 0.10 to 0.20 units, it means that the average TSP Portfolio wager is 1% to 2% of your bankroll. Risking 1-2% of your bankroll on individual wagers is relatively standard for professional bettors. Usually the more aggressive pros will top out at 5% bankroll risk on any given wager. My hope is this stated bankroll structure will make it easier to decide on your bankroll and wager sizing…versus using multipliers and such any longer. I know the multiplier math was confusing for a lot of people, this should now make it pretty straight forward.

If a 10 unit bankroll is too aggressive and you can’t handle the ups and downs, use a 20 unit bankroll and maintain the same 1.3 to 1.6% average bet. So, instead of 0.13 and 0.16 units…you would wager 0.65% and 0.80% on each wager. Still too aggressive?

Let’s say you have a $10,000 bankroll. Today there is a wager of 0.1 units on a parlay. It means you would wager 1% or $100 on the parlay. Obviously, this is just an example and each person needs to assess their preferences and risk tolerances for themselves, but I am showing how I will now view the action.

Naturally, most actual and aspiring pro’s will ask…why not just make the bankroll 100 units and the average wager 1 unit? Simple…gamblers mentality. The biggest problem I have with the every day gambler is that they become emotional midgets over losses…even the smallest or most normal of betting fluctuations. So, -0.55 units is seen by the mind as a lot better than -5.5 units…and because of that it will tend to keep the casual gambler in a better frame of mind. Both -0.55 units out of a 10 unit bankroll, and -5.5 units out of a 100 unit bankroll, equate to the same -5.5% of the bankroll lost…an average losing day for most pro’s. So, yes…100 units and 1.3 to 1.6 units per average wager will return THE EXACT SAME ROI’S as having a 10 unit bankroll and risking 0.13 to 0.16 units per average wager. There’s no difference, except one will see a casual gambler keep their cool better, the other…they will lose their minds!

Both the TSP Portfolio page (https://tsp.live/portfolios/) and the TSP Portfolio Performance page (https://thesharpplays.com/portfolio-performance/) have been updated to reflect these adjustments, so I would suggest checking them out just so you are up to speed.

Lastly, please understand…my methods have achieved a bankroll ROI of +89% this year, +350% lifetime and wager ROIs of +16.3% lifetime and +8.9% in 2024. Both the lifetime and 2024 ROI’s are WELL BEYOND “exceptional” level for professional sports betting…which begins at 5.1%. I ABSOLUTELY WILL MAKE MISTAKES AND NOT DO THINGS BY THE TEXTBOOK…but please don’t waste my time reading messages about how I should do it differently. If you have a better way, send me all your plays every single day…minimum 500 wagers (TSP Portfolio averages 750+ wagers per year) and if you beat the TSP Portfolio wager ROI’s, then I will listen. Until then…I am open to feedback or sharing strategy, but if you are just looking to criticize…I am quite happy with the TSP Portfolio being the highest performing betting content in the sports service industry and the top 1% in the world for professional sports bettors.

I welcome any questions or feedback. I am sharing this in TSP Live first to get any feedback and then will post this or an edited final version to the TSP Live Education section for future reference.

Good luck!

Some people have a misconception about betting ROI. Recently, I discussed how the TSP Portfolio had an ROI of +5.6% for the football season. People tend to think that means if you have a $10,000 bankroll that you made $560 this football season. It is the furthest thing from accurate.

In betting you have two important ROI’s that measure your quality. You have the “wager” ROI, which refers to the return on every dollar or unit RISKED. That’s a big difference from the other important ROI, which is your “bankroll” ROI. Bankroll ROI is simply your profit against your total bankroll. Here’s how dramatically different the numbers are…

TSP Portfolio’s current year (2024) wager ROI is +8.54%. It means for every $1.00 you bet…not what’s in your bankroll…you get back $0.0854 in profit. Doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s like being a casino. The house edge in roulette is “only” 5.26% (American Roulette). It means every dollar you bet on roulette, the casino will grind away $0.0526 from you…which is why the longer you play, the more you lose…every dollar…every spin…when broken out over the long term, the house ground away just over a nickel from you on every $1 on the table…again PER SPIN. As any gambler knows, those nickels they grind away from every dollar add up until you are eventually broke. It’s why you don’t walk up to a roulette table, bet every spin for an hour and are only down by 5.26% of what you bought to the table…you are usually broke after the hour. The above is the math is true for winning bettors…it just works in reverse in taking from the house versus losing to the house.

A +8.54% wager ROI does not mean if you had a bankroll of $10,000 that you made $854 in profit.

How powerful is a +8.54% ROI in gambling?

Let’s assume, because TSP Portfolio typically wagers 0.10 units as it’s standard wager, and mathematically for security you want 100 standard wagers of bankroll, that your bankroll is 10.0 units (0.1 units standard wager x 100 = 10). With that in mind, now realize the total unit profit in TSP Portfolio for 2024 is +8.73 units. Do you see it now? If not, I’ll show you…

If you take the +8.73 units against the assumed 10.0 unit total bankroll, it means your RETURN ON BANKROLL ROI is +87.3% in 2024….and +348.7% lifetime (TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/). So, our same friend with the $10,000 bankroll and a per wager risk of $100 ($10,000/100=$100 per wager) is up +$8,730 in 2024 following TSP Portfolio. The average mutual fund achieves 5-10% per year RETURN ON BANKROLL/PORTFOLIO! Meaning if you have $10,000 in a mutual fund, with a +10% ROI…you earned $10,000 that year. Yes………if TSP Portfolio were a hedge fund, it would likely manage every investment dollar in the world given its return on portfolio/bankroll!

Do you see the power of that perceived “little” +2%, +5%, +8%, +10%, wager ROI? Someone betting $1,000 per wager, meaning a $100,000 bankroll, has made $87,300 this year…not bad for a $6 per day subscription…with ZERO thinking involved…just following!

The math keeps going, if you have a $500,000 bankroll, meaning an average wager of $5,000, you made $436,500 this year…and $1,743,500 since January 1st, 2023…with no thinking…in exchange for $6 or less per day! Oh wait…you bet $10,000 per wager? You made $873,000 this year…and $3,487,000 since January 1st, 2023. See how a “little” +8.54% wager ROI adds up?!?!

Do you now see why ChatGPT says anyone with a wager ROI of +5% or more is “exceptional”? The numbers and logs of every wager do not lie…the math tells the story…check it all out for yourself at TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/.

My goal isn’t to convince the idiots in the audience that the TSP Portfolio is good…it’s to show those of you interested in learning how what seem to be very small wager ROI’s….like even the 1-2% that ChatGPT states most professional sports bettors achieve…may seem small but the profits add up when grinding that return on every single dollar/unit wagered/risked.

It all seems so easy, what’s the catch?!?!? Oh, it’s a big one…YOU ARE THE CATCH! Those of you who shit your pants when the TSP Portfolio is on a 2-13 run…or is 0-20 it’s last 20 wagers…and forget all the past performance leading up to that run. Those of you who can’t wait for the hot streak to come, so you press and chase aggressively in a cold streak and destroy your bankroll. Why? Lack of patience! Do you see why I preach patience every damn day?!? If you could just bet like a robot, not be a sniveling baby during EVERY FUCKING COLD STREAK or individual loss…and just ride the ups and downs, the above math shows the pot of gold at the end of the patience tunnel. It’s just so many of you will never survive the patience journey!

Just because TSP Portfolio has great performance numbers does not mean you won’t have PLENTY of ice cold runs throughout the year. Statistically, you should have 2 cold runs on average per month!! If you could just be patient during those cold runs…they are always offset by the eventual hot runs. If only more people had patience in gambling they would see the power of the above math…and might chill out a little when wagering.

Good luck!

The public has epic runs all the time; it’s just that their losing runs tend to be longer and more epic than any of their winning runs. However, from time to time, the public gets a BIG ONE! The “big ones” do not happen often though. The last “big one” for the public, that achieved the current level of performance was back in 2005 when the public just printed money in the NFL from the start of October and into November. Well, this current season…19 years later…the public is on another printing money run in the NFL that has equaled the 2005. If the public can cash again this week…it will eclipse the 2005 run and potentially be an “all-timer”.

The question people will ask is…did the public get smarter? Well, back in 2005, people asked the same question. People thought that computers, the Internet and the free flow of volumes of information on the games would make for smarter bettors. Did it? Well, since then the sportsbooks have made BILLIONS and BILLIONS and BILLIONS…so I would say that is not the case. For those who think this is now the time when the public has figured it out…I will say the same thing I said back then…NO CHANCE!

Diving into my sportsbooks records from my first year in the industry (1997), I see that point spread wagers placed by bettors rated as “casual” a.k.a. public bettors, cashed at 49.9%. Last year (2023), wagers placed by bettors classified as public/casual, cashed at 50.2%. So, in that way, over 26 years and despite all the technological advances, computer software, artificial intelligence, proliferation of sports services and sports gambling media, exponential expansion of the Internet and flow of information…public bettors have increased their performance by 0.3%. So, yes…the public has gotten bettor (in theory…because this win percentage will vary year to year), however the public needs to hit a minimum of 52.4% to turn a profit betting point spreads…still a touch off! LOL

At the current rate of performance increase, the public will achieve 52.4% in 125 years or 2149.

Best public performance since 1997 was in 2005…yes, that epic year when the public cashed at a rate of 51.1% across all sports and all point spreads. So, the public still lost overall since they need 52.4%, but the power they had in NFL pulled them up, along with success in NBA that year.

Worst public performance since 1997 was in 2008…yes…the year after the epic public run in 2005…can you say “regression”? In 2008, the public cashed at 48.7%.

Since 1997 the public win percentage each year has bounced between 51.1% and 48.7%.

Statistically, even in random environments…which is what public betting performance is, there will be statistical anomalies which veer way outside the normal variance. Epic public runs are these anomalies. What makes an “anomaly” and anomaly is the fact that they are RARE…but they happen. It is important to understand that “rare” is not the same as “never”. You are seeing a major anomaly right now…19 years after the last major one.

So, now that we accept that the public is on a run, albeit an ultra epic run, but that we also accept that the public will inevitably give it all back and then some…like they always have since the beginning of gambling back in roughly 3000 BCE…what strategy can we implement to take advantage of the expected and upcoming public regression run???

Well, there are some basics…

First, we will want to see what teams in the NFL the book needs to win/cover each week. If the public is going to lose and the books are going to get their money back, these “needs” will be the key wins the book has to get to see a momentum change.

Second, an added filter if you don’t like the idea of just blind betting Book Needs as a strategy for betting public regression would be to target angles where there is not just a book need, but where sharp money agrees with the book need.

Sounds easy enough because what to bet during public regression is pretty simple…FADE THE PUBLIC! The hard part is knowing the timing of when to begin such an attack strategy. While we cannot predict the future…and that’s why gambling exists…we can look for hints at a turn. What does these hints look like?

Well, yesterday, prior to the Monday Night Football game, I discussed in a TSP Live alert the following…

Since the public prefers favorites over dogs. Since the public likes the flashy teams over the underperforming teams (like Miami) you would assume the public is going to go in on the LA Rams…and so far that’s EXACTLY what they are doing…spread, moneyline, 1st Quarter, 1st Half, etc. It’s why you see this price was Miami +1 not that long ago, and now some books are up to +3…without any counter move in sight. You also see Miami was not on the Book Needs table all week and has now shown up there. It could be the sharps haven’t arrived yet because why not just sit back and let this price run to +3 around the whole market, let the highest limits hit, and then take Miami. and maybe get a very juicy +3.

None of this means the public’s hot run doesn’t continue, but the run is closer to the end than the beginning. So, I will take some shots here and there to try and get the turn and catch the run. There is no guarantee the public gets crushed tonight BUT it would be a great result for the book given the volume on the LA Rams if this was the one game that the book got beginning to end (1st Quarter, 1st Half, Spread, Moneyline, etc) and that means a Miami wire to wire outright win. Can they do it?!?!? Can the Dolphins make the day and put a cherry on top to what is only a slight profit for the books on the week? If they don’t some books will have a negative week in NFL…again.

The answer to the above was “yes”! Also, take note of the underlined sections…(1) the run is closer to the end than the beginning, (2) if this is the turn “it would be a great result for the book given the volume on the LA Rams if this was the one game that the book got beginning to end (1st Quarter, 1st Half, Spread, Moneyline, etc) and that means a Miami wire to wire outright win“. In the end, the books got the wire to wire outright Miami victory…

Miami 1Q Spread ✅
Miami 1Q Moneyline ✅
Miami 1H Spread ✅
Miami 1H Moneyline ✅
Miami Game Spread ✅
Miami Game Moneyline ✅

So, that’s what the turn tends to begin with…a good wire to wire beating on a major public play. Any other hints that a turn is upon us?

We can also look to past performance to gauge timing. If this week goes the way of the public then it will make this run the biggest public run in perhaps 30 years or more…since the only comparable run I have seen was in 2005 and my data goes back to 1995 (I got into the industry in 1997, but saved book data from 1995). So, if we assume the public won’t break the 2005 record…then this is the week to take a shot on public regression and likely look to target the public fade…and perhaps some of those fades, when targeting underdogs, by using the moneyline too!

We will see if the public breaks a record, but if they do not and this week provides some regression, then in the weeks ahead I will be looking hard at those Book Needs, and especially the Book Need + Sharp Buy combo bets!

Thanks for giving this article a read!

Good luck!

RAW PDF Files of ChatGPT Response: Page 1, Page 2

Since people may not want to believe me, I asked an independent source the question and got their response. My independent source was ChatGPT and I asked the following question: “what is the average ROI for a professional sports bettor”. Here’s what ChatGPT said…

The average ROI (Return on Investment) for a professional sports bettor can vary widely depending on the individual’s skill level, strategy, sport, and overall market conditions. However, in general, a “good” ROI for a professional sports bettor is typically in the range of 2% to 5%. Let’s break this down further:

1. Low ROI (1%–2%):

• Many professionals will be happy with a consistent ROI of around 1% to 2%. While this might seem low, in a field with high variance and the costs associated with betting (e.g., commissions, software, data, etc.), a 1%-2% ROI can still be quite profitable over the long term.

2. Moderate ROI (3%–5%):

• An ROI in this range is considered excellent. Bettors who can consistently achieve a 3% to 5% ROI have likely mastered certain sports or betting markets and have access to high-quality data and analytics. These bettors are often experts in one or two sports and specialize in specific markets (e.g., player props, futures, or niche betting options).

3. High ROI (5%+):

• Anything above 5% is very rare and would typically indicate exceptional skill, an edge in a particular market, or an advantage in finding inefficiencies that the broader betting community hasn’t noticed. These bettors may use advanced models, statistical analysis, or have insider information to generate their edge.

4. Factors Impacting ROI:

• Betting Volume: High-volume bettors may have a lower ROI but make up for it with sheer scale. Conversely, low-volume bettors may have a higher ROI but fewer overall bets.
• Sports/Markets Chosen: ROI can be better in niche or lesser-known sports with less efficient markets, whereas popular sports like NFL or NBA have very efficient betting lines, making it harder to find an edge.
• Betting Strategy: Professional bettors who use sharp betting strategies, like value betting, line shopping, or betting with contrarian approaches, will often see better ROI than those who just bet based on intuition or emotion.
• Bankroll Management: Proper bankroll management and avoiding “chasing losses” is key for maintaining a positive ROI.

5. Challenges:

• Bookmaker Limits: As bettors become more successful, bookmakers may limit the size of their bets, which can reduce the overall ROI.
• Edge Diminishment: The more a bettor wins, the more difficult it becomes to maintain an edge. This is because betting markets adjust based on new information, and lines become sharper.

In summary, a 2%–5% ROI is typically the target for a professional sports bettor, and even this requires skill, discipline, and a long-term perspective. It’s important to note that sports betting is inherently risky, and short-term losses can occur even for skilled bettors. A positive ROI over a large sample of bets is generally what separates a professional from a casual bettor.

So, you don’t have to believe me, ChatGPT says the typical ROI for a professional sports bettor is 2-5% and to quote ChatGPT, “Anything above 5% is very rare and would typically indicate exceptional skill, an edge in a particular market, or an advantage in finding inefficiencies that the broader betting community hasn’t noticed. These bettors may use advanced models, statistical analysis, or have insider information to generate their edge.“

TSP Portfolio lifetime ROI (Portfolio records & logs) is +16.6% and +8.8% in 2024!

Good luck!

The TSP Index (https://TheSharpPlays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/) just moved into an uptrend after 16 days of downtrend. The typical run within the Index (uptrend or downtrend) tends to last around 7-10 days with 75% of runs ending within 14 days. A consistent run in the Index lasting 20+ days is considered “long”.

So, let’s say the average run is 7 days (also known as a “week”). If the average run is a week, that would mean every year you will experience 52 runs in your gambling (hot or cold). If we assume you win around 55% of the time, you would be expected to win 28.6 weeks of the 52. Let’s round up and say that’s 29…which means that you have 29 winning weeks and 23 losing weeks each year. So, you essentially only have 6 net winning weeks every year which provide the bulk of your profits.

Sure, typically an average winning week will see you win more than you lose in the average losing weeks…when you bet properly. So, you will grind additional profits by minimizing losses and maximizing wins. However, most people do not bet properly. Most people panic when losing and actually bet more per wager in cold streaks than they do in hot streaks…do you see the lunacy of that math? It is for the reasons in this paragraph that I stress patience. You can’t force a hot streak to come simply by betting big. Hot and cold runs are like good and bad weather. When the weather is bad, hunker down and bet tight. When the whether is good, get out and enjoy the blue skies and sun as you expand your betting risk. Only idiots go fishing in a hurricane. Sure, sometimes it pays off (ask Forrest Gump), but that tends to be the very rare exception rather than the rule. Don’t bank on exceptions.

The point of this article/lesson is to: (1) illustrate how tight the margins are in professional betting, (2) show that cold streaks are very common (23 of 29 weeks each year are cold) so they should not be a shock when you have them REGULARLY, (3) Maximizing wins in hot streaks and minimizing losses in cold streaks is essential to success as it further expands your profits, (4) the bulk of your profits come from those 6 net winning weeks out of every 52 weeks…again showing the importance of patience!

I get novices who bitch and moan all the time because they don’t just win money every day or there are several weeks in a row of losses. Sorry my friends…that’s the game. I am sure there is some unsavory tout who will tell you that all they do is win and then rarely have losing weeks…they are full of shit. Any professional will tell you this business is a grind. People love the movie and lifestyle of Matt Damon in Rounders, so take some advice from it! My favorite quote from that movie is on the front page of TheSharpPlays.com…

“Guys around here will tell you, you play for a living, it’s like any other job…you don’t gamble, you grind it out. Get your money in when you have the best of it, protect it when you don’t. Don’t give anything away!” – Rounders (1998)

How perfect and concise an explanation of professional gambling…it’s a grind and you need to minimize losses when you lack optimal setups and maximize wins when the setups are in your favor…don’t piss away units out of stupidity.

People also put very high expectations on how their performance as professional gamblers will go. When those expectations are not met…then I get the whining and complaining messages discussing how awful it is that we don’t just win tons of money every week or month. At the time of this article, what is clearly the most followed TSP content would be the TSP Live Radar (37-25 for 59.7% and +16.5% ROI), KB Consensus (4-1 for 80% for a +53% ROI), TSP Portfolio (+9.1% ROI in 2024, 1+6.9% ROI lifetime), Wolf (+17.6% ROI), Tony (+11% ROI), TSP Bot (+7.0% ROI). The average professional sports bettor’s ROI is +5%. The AVERAGE SPORTSBOOK HOLD (their ROI on the action they book) is +6 to +8%. All the TSP content listed in this paragraph provides a higher ROI than the average professional sports bettor and all but the TSP Bot provides an ROI higher than the average sportsbook. So, why own a sportsbook? Betting TSP content provides you a better ROI!

Yet despite the stats above, and the resulting performance delivered by The Sharp Plays, there are people who complain about the performance. I am not talking about haters who complain to complain…I mean real gamblers who do not realize how rare this type of performance is in gambling…yet complain that it isn’t good enough for them! People who literally have complained that they “aren’t winning enough”! IF THEY ONLY REMEMBER WHAT IT WAS LIKE TO BE A PUBLIC BETTOR WITH AN ROI OF -5% to -7%!! If you are a complainer…please go somewhere else and I will see you back in a year (or usually A LOT sooner) when you have bankrupted yourself betting and learned these lessons the hard way…coming to realize that TSP is indeed The Sharp(est) Plays around…and the education provided here is even sharper!

Good luck!

You know, it’s funny. Someone said to me recently that I must have a bunch of new customers in because I have been in rare form with my morning messages. Yes, as with any new football season a bunch of novices and rookies come out of the woodwork looking to turn their $1,000 bankroll into $100,000 by the end of September. I get it too…I was once one of them back in the 90’s during high school. Somehow I convinced myself that my $20 bets would lead to a steady weekly income where I could buy a car and have anything that a high school student could dream. When that sort of thing doesn’t happen…the novice feels the reason can’t be their stupid ideology about gambling that was the problem.

From April through July…there is no need for this sort of discussion. The people who are with TSP Live in those summer months are my people…true degenerates…veteran gamblers! They celebrate the wins, they brush off the losses, and they know this whole thing is a long-term game. A losing month…no big deal…the wins always come…that’s how a summer TSP Live subscriber operates. These true degenerates love the action, but they also trust the process and have patience. Come football season, a whole new batch of wannabe sports millionaires shows up. You can surely turn a very healthy income in sports betting…trust me, I know…but not without accepting reality…and being patient. Yes, 31 years ago when I placed my first bet offshore…underaged…I was a newbie too with an idea as to how gambling was “supposed to work” and that somehow despite my inexperience I would immediately be successful at a profession where the math is slanted strong against you…and math is a tough opponent.

I am not trying to be a dick by putting down these newbies…it’s more that I am trying to give them a blunt wakeup call. The goal being to open their eyes in a way nobody did for me in my early months and years gambling. In the process, I hope to save these newbies money and a lot of stress along the way.

These newbies come into something like TSP Live after having navigated social media for weeks, months and years…seeing all the bullshit pictures of stacks of money, big tickets and easy wins posted by so-called professional bettors. They see how some flashy idiot who has a Game of the Year every week just has racks upon racks of cash…so if that moron can do it…surely our newbie can too! The problem is, you are only seeing a small portion of the picture…but like a good drug dealer, the unsavory tout has sold you on the high, but left out the side effects. You would be surprised how many of the pundits and “professional bettors” who show up on TV and radio are losing degenerate gamblers who piss away money at a hysterical pace. I laugh when I see some “professional” brought on a TV or radio show as the hosts bow down to this person for their incredible gambling intelligence. Little do they know a friend at their favorite book told me how that guy is one of their biggest losers!

So don’t buy the hype. Accept and realize that sportsbooks and casinos have all the math on their side. DraftKings doesn’t have an EIGHTEEN BILLION dollar market cap because the majority of people win! No my friends, only 3-4% of gamblers qualify to earn the “professional and profitable” bettor badges! If you want to be one, you can get there, but you need to realize it will require effort!

Unlike those on social media who just want to suck you in by showing the glamour side to gambling…here at The Sharp Plays, the goal is to let you know about the side effects like losing, cold runs, large drawdowns, etc., because that’s a part of gambling. If you only want to see the good and don’t accept the bad…this whole thing will be a very bad road for you.

So, leave your preconceived notions about professional gambling at the door, come with an open mind and I can show you how much fun and profitable this business can be…but there will be losses…lots of them. It’s just over time there will also be wins…and the wins will outnumber the losses. Patience is a virtue and it is also the key to being a pro.

We all start somewhere! I started betting in the 90’s with an average bet of just $5. A big bet for me at the time was $20…and $50 was like betting a million! I called 1-900 numbers for “winners” from Jack Price, Johnny Demarco and MANY others…paying $10, $20, $50 per call…none of it worked. I kept losing and losing. I lost the hard way. Then someone tried to teach me the business when I got into the offshore industry in the late 90’s. I thought his ideas were bullshit as to how professional gambling worked…and I fought him HARD despite his incredible experience and success. Finally, I relented and did it his way…I have never had a losing year since and I realized that the power in winning at sports betting is not trying to win 60-80% of your bets…nobody does over the long-term. However, you can make MILLIONS with a 55% win percentage, a 5-6% ROI and some patience! Fast forward 30 years…and while I do not discuss numbers…my average bet is no longer $5, but an amount I never would have imagined achieving back in those early days. You can get there too!

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Lesson #1: The TSP Index…the ULTIMATE sports betting barometer!

You will hear me talk about the TSP Index a lot! The TSP Index is the output of a calculation which assesses the performance of ALL the money across ALL leagues active that’s placed by public rated bettors and sharp rated bettors at two large offshore sportsbooks. How does it do this? Each sportsbook rates their bettors using various tiers of public and sharp rating. The ratings are done by the sportsbook’s systems based on a variety of factors and for every player in their system. My calculation, which is done automatically at the end of each day by a program, looks at combined ROI of all the sharp rated bettors who were in action for the previous day (both by league and overall) and compares it to the combined ROI of all the public bettors (again by league and overall) who were in action for the previous day. It then dials this performance down and rates it on a scale. The scale runs -5 to +5. A public market is negative, a sharp market is positive. Most markets will end up in the positive because the public as a whole always loses and sharps as a whole always outperform the public by comparison. However, even though the TSP Index reading might normally be a positive number, there are still fluctuations up and down that occur within that number. These up & down fluctuations help us to see which side of the market (public or sharp) is on a run. There is a moving average on the TSP Index chart which helps to see who has the momentum. Sometimes the TSP Index line is above the moving average which indicates sharps are on a run, sometimes the TSP Index line is below the moving average line which indicates the public is on a run. For more details, and to see the actual charting and data, visit TheSharpPlays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/.

All this might seem complex, but I do the job of reading the Index for you each day in TSP Live if you don’t want to do it yourself. You can find a TSP Index table on the TSP Live Dashboard (link in the website menu, in every TSP Live alert, on Telegram with every alert, on the home page, and directly at https://tsp.live/tsp-live-alerts/). Under the “Informational Links” menu on the TSP Live Dashboard page, you will see the second link contains “TSP Index” in it. Click that and scroll down for the TSP Index table. The table tells you the current trend of Index (UP or DOWN), what that trend means, my comments on the Index, and how each league is trending along with an indicator (1, 0, -1) that illustrates how active sharp money is in the league…details on the table itself. The TSP Index is a great tool, but if you are like the haters, you will dismiss it immediately because you can’t understand it. Followers who spend the time to monitor the Index will say that its predictive power for catching hot and cold runs right away is far too consistent to be dumb luck. The Index was the first analytical tool I launched at the website back in 2019 and it has been running every single day since for a reason!

The TSP Index operates on a theory I came up with when enjoying the casino games of craps and primarily baccarat. If you have ever played baccarat you know it is a game of playing the runs. You play the bank run, you play the player run. There are patterns to the game that players try to predict. In your own gambling, do you ever notice that you have runs where you can’t hit a bet and all the breaks go against you, and then that run is eventually followed by a run where you can’t miss a bet and all the breaks go in your favor? Every time you walk into a casino there is usually a point where you are up money because of this cyclical dynamic. Imagine if you had a tool that could give you a high probability of knowing when a hot run is getting started? You could expand you risk, you could press on games, you could take shots on more exotic wagers and ride the run! What if you could know that the first bad day is the start of a potential cold run…you could tighten up your action, have lower risk out there and protect bankroll. The TSP Index aims to provide this early warning system for your betting. Check it out at the links above!

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Lesson 2: The purpose of reporting sharp buys, group action, and other intel along with having various analytics tables is to make you a more informed bettor, not to prompt you to place a wager on every bit of content published.

If you are new to TSP Live…for the first couple weeks after joining…just follow the action in the TSP Portfolio and ignore ALL THE OTHER CONTENT for wagering purposes. While you will be ignoring the other content for wagering purposes, please do not ignore all the other content altogether. Educate yourself on the other content through the resources on TSP.Live (there’s even an “Education” section at https://tsp.live/education/ which is also in the website menu) and TheSharpPlays.com. Then take the time to read through the alerts, learn the type of information that gets posted, check out the logs and records at TheSharpPlays.com so you can analyze the angles, view the analytics tables in TSP Live like the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus and Book Needs each day, learn about TSP Insiders paid and bonus content, etc….but when it comes to what you bet during the early days of being a TSP Live subscriber or TSP follower…just follow the TSP Portfolio wagers. The TSP Portfolio action is always in an easy to locate green box in every TSP Live alert. The Portfolio action is SPECIFICALLY designed for the novice bettor to be low risk, high reward/ROI and with low volatility.

After a couple weeks of educating yourself and reviewing all the content, or for some just a couple days, you will then have a good idea of how you prefer to view what gets reported as part of TSP Live and The Sharp Plays. You might see free and/or paid angles reported that you would like to add to your own betting portfolio and regardless of what the TSP Portfolio is doing OR you might decide that all the other content outside of the TSP Portfolio is not for you. Maybe you don’t quite understand it, maybe it seems like too much noise, maybe it all sucks to you…whatever! So, you decide to stick to the TSP Portfolio and that’s it. Perfect! Just decide how much you want to wager per 0.1 units of TSP Portfolio risk, ignore all the other content…and grind! It sounds like an excellent strategy to me because it sounds like it fits you…and that’s the key to any strategy!

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I covered a couple lesson to get relatively up to speed on TSP Live. Now let’s discuss the key rules to being a professional or advantage bettor.

The first rule of sports betting as an advantage player is not to press or chase off a loss or during a cold run! Sure, we are all degenerates and we all will have little lapses in judgement, but the key is keeping those in check is VITAL to long-term success.

When I started as a bettor I was a total degenerate. There were times I chased on my bets (many times) until I basically could not bet anymore and ran out of credit and/or cash! Ugly shit, but most (likely all) of you know what I am talking about. However, as I became an advantage player, I began to have a different outlook on betting. I no longer saw the need to get even today because I trusted that as an advantage player, my run would be coming. So…no biggie that I lost today…maybe not tomorrow or the next day…but I will get mine! I believed that the cold run was a good thing because it meant another hot run was ahead…I just had to be smart and weather the ice storm to enjoy the heat once again.

There will likely be a lot of occasions in the future where you chase, but hopefully those chases are very minor compared to the past. I am absolutely guilty of chasing at times…still. However, the difference now than when I was a maniac is I have accepted the truth that today may suck, this week may suck, this month may suck, but things won’t always suck. Every day of cold action that I can survive is another day closer to the hot run. Going through a cold run is like counting down the days to Christmas as a child…it’s coming and each day passed is a day closer to paradise…and presents!! Like Christmas, a true hot run is a drug like no other…and why all of you are here…to savor those hot runs and all the profits, excitement, adrenaline, and dopamine highs that come with it!

Since going from total degenerate to partial degenerate, I have embraced patience over urgency to get even. I have embraced faith in the long-term performance of the content to provide me a hot run after every cold run. I trust that when the content delivers that hot run, it will erase my losses and provide me a sweet profit on top. The trust in the future has DRAMATICALLY removed the need/desire to chase in the present. Once you lose that desire to chase…gambling can be so much more enjoyable, less stress and profitable! Burning up bankroll by chasing during a cold run destroys your potential profit margin for the INEVITABLE hot run to follow!

The second rule is to accept gambling reality. The longer you hold inaccurate preconceived notions about how professional gambling works…the more financial pain, stress and frustrations you will experience in your betting.

The third rule is to get used to losing…because it is going to happen…A LOT! I have probably lost around 50,000 bets in my life! The good news is I have won more than I have lost and that’s the simple math that works in this game.

You MUST get used to handling losses. I recently had a discussion in TSP Live because of a handful of maniacs who were beside themselves due to losses in the TSP Portfolio during Week 1 of NCAAF. How big were these losses? Well, the Portfolio was down as much as 0.66 units in September. Not exactly a lot given the average bet lifetime for the Portfolio is around 0.16 units. Still…despite the incredible ROI for the TSP Portfolio…people just could not handle what is really a very minor loss.

When faced with losses, inexperienced gamblers automatically assume that something was done wrong. The goal of your gambling was to win…you did not…so you did the math wrong or didn’t analyze the games properly. No…that’s really not it. How about simply that in a game of luck, even the best gamblers and strategies will have losses. So, accept those losses and keep grinding…the wins always come in the end!

The other thing inexperienced gamblers tend to do is they want to search for a system that never has losses. These guys try to perfectly time the ebbs and flows of their betting. If you can’t handle losses in betting you are probably not experienced enough to perfectly time the ups and downs of the TSP index and know when is best to fade the sharps and follow the public. Instead, STOP THINKING! Stop trying to do something that is IMPOSSIBLE in gambling which is removing losses. Find a winning strategy, be happy that because you have a winning strategy that you are better than 96 out of 100 people you see in the sportsbooks…and just ride the good and the bad…knowing that everything will workout fine in the end!

The TSP Portfolio truly blows away ANY gambling content ANYWHERE. The wagers are logged, the results are calculated and the ROI blows away all the competition. Not to mention, following the TSP Portfolio takes less THAN FIVE MINUTES EACH DAY!! Last year saw losing months of -3.37 units, -3.11 units, -1.90 units and yet the Portfolio is +33.8 units lifetime…the method works. There will be losses, but the Portfolio will eventually grind those losses back and put some profit into our pockets on top!

As I told someone recently…you have Margot Robbie in front of you…and she is all yours. Stop trying to make her hotter or sexier…just enjoy what you have! It doesn’t get better than the TSP Portfolio…you can search…you’ll eventually see for yourself. So, stop trying to lessen the losses of content that has a lifetime ROI over +17%! It’s light years away from the next profitable service out there. It does not get any better, just sit back and ride the ups and downs! Stop trying to make Margot sexier.

There’s not a lot of advanced strategies and techniques here because this is the “newbies guide”. However, if you can master the simple things in this article…your time as a newbie will be brief and you will have a strong head start to being a consistent and long-term profitable bettor…earning that legitimate “Professional Gambler” badge that is so coveted among degenerates.

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If you have questions, please reach out on Telegram (t.me/TheSharpPlays) or use the Contact form here on the TSP.Live website!

Good luck!