Category: TSP Live Education

Every year from May through August, The Sharp Plays undergoes core operational upgrades to prepare for the football season. Some updates were brainstormed as far back as September and fine-tuned over time. Others are inspired on the fly as this process goes along. Below is a detailed look at key changes—with full transparency.

FOOTBALL SEASON BEGINS IN (Hall of Fame game is July 31st)…

---

🔄 Initial Operational Changes

✅ denotes upgrades or changes that have completed

1. Telegram Channel Consolidation ✅

• TSP Insiders Channel merged into TSP War Room (May 29th)
• TSP Twitter/X Clone Channel also merged (June 1st)
• All content now centralized via TSP War Room Telegram Channel
• Join the War Room channel

2. Analytics Table Merger ✅

• TSP Live Radar, KBC Consensus, and Book Needs tables are now inside the Hermes Elite A.I. table. You can see these on the table now.
• However, these tools are football-specific and will appear "OFFLINE" until late August

3. Podcast Relaunch

• Go Fast and Win podcast returns August through April
• Updates to the website and new episodes will launch in August 2025

4. Streamlined TSP Live Alerts ✅

• Alerts now focus strictly on high-level (30+) Hermes A.I. content, TSP Portfolio, and Degenerates Corner
• Lower-tier content (like TSP Insider leans and low/mid-level intel not covered in the Degenerates Corner) now moves to Telegram/Twitter.
• On days with a lot of high-tier content, more of the lower-tier content will shift to Telegram to keep TSP Live alerts focused and uncluttered. Conversely, on slower days with no high-tier plays/angles, more lower-tier content will be delivered exclusively to TSP Live subscribers...and Telegram will be quieter.

5. General Website Maintenance

• Seasonal housekeeping updates to refresh outdated or retired content across all TSP platforms/websites. I apologize for any down-time or pages/features being offline for maintenance from time to time.

6. Hermes Upgrade to Version 2.0 (currently running Version 1.6)

• Hermes is scheduled for a major upgrade in July. While the system will remain online throughout the process, there may be brief periods of downtime—potentially a few hours at a time—as the new version is built in the background.
• This upgrade will transition Hermes from version 1.6 to version 2.0. The new version will be trained using all the data, analysis, and tracking collected to date, enabling improved performance and smarter decision-making going forward.

7. Full Access to TSP Insiders (NEW - 6/19/25)

✅ You asked, we listened: Many of you want full access to all TSP Insider plays (Wolf, Tony, etc.) — and you want the choice to buy what you want, when you want it.

🧩 The challenge:

• Wolf has direct, long-time clients (20+ years) on a "pay after you win" model.
• To honor those relationships, he won't charge them for a play he gives free to TSP.
• Some Insider picks come just 30 minutes before game time — tough to post in time for purchase.

💡 What we’re exploring:

• Dynamic pricing — cold streak? Picks may go for $5. Hot streak? Higher prices reflect demand.
• Everyone gets access. You control what to buy, with pricing that adjusts to performance.
• Motivates Insiders to stay sharp and rewards loyal followers.
• Pay After You Win option, but has to have a tweak due to potential collection issues.

🚫 No monthly subscriptions:

• Wolf might only release 2–3 bets a month...other months 15-20.
• Charging a set monthly fee is fine in high volume months, but not in low volume months — especially if the picks lose.

🏈 Coming for football season:

• A new solution is in the works for full access to all Insider plays...every day and every play.
• Until then, enjoy free Group Moves and select paid plays via TSP.Live.

While the current list of updates isn’t long, more upgrades and improvements will roll out in the coming weeks. Behind the scenes, dozens of backend and operational enhancements—like clerical adjustments and infrastructure tweaks—are already underway to keep everything optimized. As new, noticeable changes go live, I’ll add them to the numbered list above, mark them with "(NEW - Date Posted)", and post an alert in the TSP War Room Telegram Channel with a link to this page so you can easily stay up to date.

---

⚠️ About Feedback

Feedback is welcome, but understand this:

If your feedback is just about making your experience better and not TSP overall, it won’t be prioritized.

Example: Some people complain when I get “verbose” on Telegram—meaning a few extra messages to the channel on certain days. Reality? Most days have 5–7 alerts. Occasionally, sure, it might hit 10+.

Sometimes I’m bored, sometimes I’m having fun with the TSP audience. Such instances might mean an extra 1–3 messages. It’s rare. If that’s too much for you, unsubscribe—but let’s be real, you won’t.

You may not love how I run things. But nobody outperforms The Sharp Plays—and 15 years of results prove it.

The numbers. Do. Not. Lie.

So if this level of performance isn't worth putting up with a few extra alerts or my attempt at comedy/fun here and there, that’s on you.

If you leave to prove a point—go ahead.
You’re just sabotaging your own betting performance.

Me? I’ll be fine.
So will the rest of the TSP Army who aren't wet noodles.

---

💵 Pricing Updates (TSP Live & TSP Insiders)

Pricing...the topic nobody likes. It's long, but it's because I want to be transparent about the thought process and analysis given the sensitivity of this topic. So, rather just give you TSP's biased view, I asked ChatGPT to evaluate the fair pricing based on actual performance. The following, except the parts where you see "TSP:" is generated 100% from the ChatGPT analysis of the queries presented.

ChatGPT Query:

TSP: "What is the fair monthly cost for a sports handicapping service called TSP Live that offers two products that subscribers can access and which carry the stated performance:

• TSP Portfolio: +15.70% lifetime ROI on risk (1770+ wagers), 12.08% ROI for 2025 (301 wagers)
• Hermes Elite A.I.: +48.23% bankroll gain, 11.07% lifetime ROI on risk, +23.36% on 40+ scores, 450 wagers and all in 2025"

📊 Performance Recap (2025 Data)

• TSP Portfolio: 301 wagers, 12.08% ROI = $3,637 profit at $100/unit
• Hermes Elite A.I.: 450 wagers, 11.07% ROI = $4,982 profit at $100/unit
• Combined Expected Value = $8,619 profit in under 5 months for $100 bettors, also supported by long-term data beyond 2025.

📊 Market Comparison

Service	Price	Notes
Dr. Bob	$599/month	NFL & NCAA football/basketball only, no AI, lower ROI.
Don Best	$499/month	Odds feed, no selections
Spank Odds	$699/month	Odds feed, no selections
TSP Live	???	All major US & International Sports, AI-driven, elite ROI

TSP: I think Dr. Bob is one of the few honest people in this business and I respect him for that because it is so rare. His mention above should not be somehow seen as derogatory toward him or his pricing. If I wanted to be derogatory, there are countless others I could add to ChatGPT's table.

⚖️ Fair Monthly Price Recommendations

Plan Type	Price Range	Rationale
Standard Monthly	$399–$599/month	Justified by ROI and betting volume

📌 ChatGPT Conclusion

You’re delivering:
Multi-year consistency
Multiple high-yield systems
A professional A.I. tool rivaling (and beating) industry software [TSP: Thanks ChatGPT...I appreciate it!]
A content stream that aligns with professional-level sports intelligence

✅ $499/month is the sweet spot – elite performance at a fraction of its delivered financial value.

---

🌟 TSP Insiders Pricing Analysis

ChatGPT Query:

TSP: Question 1: "I'm curious, what qualifies someone to be in the Top 1% of professional sports bettors worldwide?"

Question 2: "Can you create a breakdown of standing based on ROI for sports bettors?"

TSP SIDE NOTE: ChatGPT uses “ROI” in the same way as “Return on Risk,” which is important to understand. A 10% ROI does not mean a 10-unit or 10% bankroll gain—it can actually represent a much larger return. For example, if you place 500 bets at $1,000 each, that’s $500,000 in total risk. With a 10% ROI (a.k.a. Return on Risk), you’d earn $50,000 in profit. Assuming your unit size is $1,000, this suggests a $100,000 bankroll, and a 10% ROI would equate to a 50% gain on your bankroll ($50,000)—not just 10%.

ChatGPT Response (Question 1): These bettors are often tracking at 55%+ win rates on standard -110 lines over years of data—translating to +3% to +7% ROI or more, which is exceptional in this space.

ChatGPT Response (Question 2):

🏆 Sports Bettor ROI Tiers (Long-Term Performance)

TSP: Which tier are you—or perhaps "were" you?

Tier	ROI Range	Performance Summary	Typical Traits
🔝 Top 1% – Elite Pro	+5% or more	Extremely rare. Beating the market efficiently over time. Likely using modeling, market access, syndicate intel, or automation.	Strong closing line value, disciplined bankroll use, low volume/high accuracy. Syndicate or high-stakes pro.
💼 Top 5% – Sharp Pro	+2% to +5%	Long-term profitable, typically full-time or semi-pro. Likely betting high volume with disciplined process.	Uses data, betting tools, possibly sells picks or runs a service. May avoid popular markets.
📈 Top 10% – Skilled Bettor	+1% to +2%	Profitable after juice, beats market inconsistently but has edge. Could become pro with scaling.	Good discipline, some closing line value, maybe focused on niche markets. Often supplementing income.
📊 Top 25% – Breakeven or Slight Edge	0% to +1%	Could beat the market, but profits are minimal or eaten by vig. Often one good tweak away from sharp success.	Casual sharp, good intuition but lacks a full edge or consistency.
🌀 The Middle – Losing, But Close	-1% to 0%	Majority of active bettors fall here. Losing slowly over time—often due to small leaks or poor market selection.	Lacks discipline, chases bets, bets popular games or odds.
🧨 Bottom 50% – Rec Bettors	-1% to -10%	Betting for entertainment, not profit. Often loses to juice or overbets favorites, parlays, or props.	Casual approach, minimal tracking, emotionally driven decisions.
🔻 Bottom 10% – Action Junkies	-10% or worse	Losing rapidly. Likely chasing losses or has no betting framework.	No bankroll strategy, no tracking, often addicted to the rush.

---

⚠️ ChatGPT Notes:

• These ROI figures assume standard -110 markets or their EV equivalents.
• ROI should always be judged in the context of volume. A +10% ROI on 20 bets is meaningless; +2% ROI on 3,000 bets is elite.
• Even Top 1% bettors may end the month negative—variance is real.

TSP: I saved the full chat with ChatGPT, and I swear on everything I hold dear—it was ChatGPT that added the third bullet point about even bettors in the Top 1% experiencing negative months. Many of you are laughing because it's something I say constantly in that I always try to get bettors to understand: no matter how skilled you are, no one avoids losing streaks—whether it’s a rough day, a tough week, or even a down month. It’s just part of the game. Not accepting "betting reality" as I refer to it will only be a detriment to your success!

---

TSP: Wolf & Tony have a +9.9% ROI over 231 wagers, TSP Portfolio holds a +15.7% ROI over 1776 wagers, Hermes A.I. holds a +11.27% ROI over 453 wagers. Yes, ELITE Pro - Top 1%!

---

ChatGPT Query:

TSP: "If two professionals bettors combine for a +9.9% ROI over 231 wagers for the last 9 months and sell their selections to clients, what would be a fair price per selection given this level of performance?"

ChatGPT Response: A combined +9.9% ROI absolutely qualifies as Top 1% performance.

If that ROI is sustained over hundreds of wagers, it reflects sharp modeling, disciplined execution, and consistent value—whether it's from one individual or a team.

💰 Per-Selection Fair Pricing

Tier	Quality	Price Per Pick
Low	Unverified, weak ROI	$5–$15
Mid	2–4% ROI	$15–$25
High	5%+ ROI, verified	$30–$50
Elite	9.9% ROI (TSP Insiders)	$50–$100

~~~ END OF CHATGPT ANALYSIS ~~~

TSP: Everything below is now The Sharp Plays text and content, ChatGPT was allowed to go on break at this point. It did a great job!

---

💬 So, What Will Pricing Be for 2025–26?

Honestly? I don’t know yet. But here’s where we’ve been—and where we are now:

• Current: TSP Live $179.99/month - TSP Insiders $15-$25/selection
  
• 2019: $200/month — for just 8 picks per month
• 2020: Dropped to $149.99 to entice people to test a monthly subscription w/daily content
• 2022: Increased to $159.99
• 2024: Increased to $179.99

Now, six years later, TSP Live still costs less than it did in 2019, even though the content, tools, techology and performance have grown exponentially.

---

🎯 Striking the Right Balance

My price goal remains simple:

Keep TSP Live affordable for smaller bettors, while supporting the infrastructure, team, and ongoing expansion and innovation that make this entire operation possible—AND SUCCESSFUL!

Yes, I agree with ChatGPT that TSP Live could easily justify a $499/month price tag based on it's elite ROI and value...logged over the last 14 years of content!

Yes, Wolf & Tony could realistically charge $50-100 per selection given their elite performance.

But don’t panic—nobody’s pushing pricing to those levels in 2025. I can't make any guarantees though if we get Venezuelan inflation or devalue the dollar.

This breakdown provides an unbiased, third-party assessment of the service's value—powered by ChatGPT and grounded in something I trust completely: math. There's no emotion, no spin—just a logical analysis based on market benchmarks and actual performance results.

Most major handicapping websites charge $30–$50 per individual pick and $299–$599 per month—and that’s a conservative estimate. Yet despite these high prices, their performance often falls well short of what The Sharp Plays delivers—if they’re profitable at all. In fact, a Deadspin study found that only 11 out of 49 handicappers at Pregame.com showed a profit before fees, and just 1 out of 49 turned a profit after fees were deducted.

---

⚖️ How TSP Insiders Helps TSP Live Pricing Stay Below Fair Value

I understand some don't care for the TSP Insiders model because it's “another purchase” on top of the TSP Live subscription. But here’s the reality:

Those additional selections, provided by independent TSP Insiders, are entirely optional—and they’re a key reason why the TSP Live monthly subscription remains affordable. So far, there haven’t been many paid TSP Insiders plays—averaging just 3 per month—while nearly five times that number have been provided for free. When selections are offered for free, they’re not truly free—TSP Insiders are compensated directly by The Sharp Plays. These Insiders work hard behind the scenes and deserve to be rewarded for helping us all grow our wealth.

Also, TSP Insiders paid selections are no longer a part of TSP Portfolio and they ARE NOT tracked in the TSP Live Hermes A.I. performance numbers. There's a separate tracking for Hermes A.I. performance for TSP Insiders (TheSharpPlays.com). So, you lose nothing by not participating in them if you follow Hermes and/or Portfolio in TSP Live.

Yes, the volume of paid releases will increase going forward, but that’s driven by customer demand for more access to TSP Insiders' Group Moves, given the performance, not based on pushing more sales.

TSP Insiders sales allow higher-stakes bettors to contribute more by purchasing individual TSP Insiders selections, without forcing that cost on everyone. It’s a flexible system that benefits all sides—and the additional TSP Insiders revenue keeps access to the TSP Live subscription open to more bettors' budgets.

---

📌 Final Word (on Price)

You’ve seen how pricing has changed—slowly and fairly—over six years. Every step has been based on real growth, added content, and increased performance.

Hermes A.I. is by far the most ambitious—and most expensive—project I’ve ever taken on for TSP. Like most large-scale ventures, it’s operating with carried debt due to the lack of revenue generation from Hermes A.I. during the research and development phases (2022-2025), and it has significantly increased monthly technical costs. That said, I think we can agree the early performance proves the investment was a worthwhile gamble. When prices are raised, it’s never about picking anyone’s pocket—it’s about fueling growth and expanding the value of the content.

I’ll share more pricing details in the weeks ahead as I explore ideas and work out budgets. But rest assured:

I’m not looking to blindside you—just build something sustainable and scalable for everyone.

---

🍀 Closing Thoughts

Yes, this article was long—but it needed to be. My goal is to keep you informed, educated, and prepared, especially on sensitive topics like pricing, where I strive for 100% transparency.

Thank you for being a loyal part of the TSP Army.

The Sharp Plays won’t win every day, week, or month—but over the long haul, the numbers don’t lie. During a cold stretch, it might not feel that way, but over time, the results speak for themselves. Go ahead—look around. You won’t find another platform with 15 years of consistent, high-level performance.

Even ChatGPT labels TSP’s track record as "Elite Pro" level—Top 1% territory.😎
I don’t flex often, but when it comes to this kind of sustained success for The Sharp Plays, I’ll gladly make an exception.

Here’s to keeping it rolling in 2025 and beyond.

Thanks again for your trust and support!

Good luck,
~ TSP

Posted this as an intro to a TSP Live alert on Friday and it got solid reviews, so I am adding it to the education section on TSP.Live for future reference…

🎯 The Hardest Part of Professional Gambling

The hardest part of this journey is not teaching people how to win — it’s getting them not to quit. When gambling stops feeling like easy money, so many bettors just vanish.

Over the past week, I’ve been diving deep into lessons from March, April, and May to show what true professional gambling looks like. Why? Because the real path to success goes against everything most people are taught. Breaking those bad habits and misconceptions is the toughest challenge. But if I can do that with you, you’ll evolve into an exceptional professional bettor…with a healthy income!

---

💭 The Dream vs. The Reality 💪

The Dream:
According to the so-called experts on Twitter/X, Instagram, and TikTok, gambling is easy money. They promise constant best bets, daily locks, and effortless wealth. You’re urged to buy multiple picks at $29.99 each per day or sign up for a $399 or $599/month package — all sold by people who haven’t posted a winning year in their lives.

Their credentials? Maybe a handicapping contest win from 2007 or 2015. And forget about transparency. These services never maintain a public daily log AND daily compiled records like The Sharp Plays does — because doing so would expose their inconsistencies and lack of real performance!

Some services will let you pull previous selections, but they avoid compiling the actual results for one reason: they know most people won’t take the time to do it themselves. They pretend to be transparent by allowing access to all previous selections, but without compiled records (LONG-TERM RECORDS…not just current season or last 30 days) of all those previous selections, it’s meaningless. They’re counting on your laziness — that you won’t run the numbers, and you’ll just assume their performance is solid because the past plays are “available.”

Let’s be clear: transparency means nothing without accountability.

If a service dazzles you with flash but won’t show you detailed long-term records — meaning performance across past seasons and years, not just a cherry-picked month or a single season — AND daily logs of ALL their action that you can independently track and audit, they have something to hide!!! A real pro doesn’t hide the data. If someone’s legit — like The Sharp Plays — they want you to see the records and the logs of EVERYTHING…every year and every wager! That’s the difference between a seller of dreams and a provider of results. I flex on my results — I put my dick on display each day because I want you to see how big it is, not just talk about it and stuff a sock in my pants hoping you’ll trust me on what I’m packing.

The Reality:
When I explain how this business actually works — backed by 26 years of experience and 15 straight public winning years since launching the content in 2011 — people push back. It doesn’t fit the fantasy they bought into years ago from the pick sellers and hype machines. They want easy money, fast cars, private jets, $100K bets, and guaranteed wins.

But real success? It isn’t flashy. It’s methodical. It’s disciplined. It’s long-term.

And yes — the fast cars, private jet access, and six-figure wagers? Those come too… but only with time. When I started out betting in high school I was betting $5 a game. Dropping $100 felt like putting a million on the line.

Today? I’m living the dream. Dedication, time, and relentless effort got me here — and it can get you here too.

It might sound over the top, but as I write this and think back to those days grinding for an edge in my bedroom at my parents’ house in high school, and then fast forward to where I am now… I get emotional. I never imagined I’d make it this far — but I did.

And here’s the truth: I’m nobody special. I didn’t come from millions. I didn’t have a head start. Every break I got, I earned…and I accepted failures and got back up. This isn’t some overnight success story — it’s a story of persistence, belief, and refusing to quit.

---

🔍 Trust the Process

Here’s what I hope you’ve learned these past three months:

• Trust the process. Even if it’s not flashy, it’s proven and time-tested — 26 years professionally and 15 years publicly… with winners every year.
• My style may be unconventional — rollovers, parlays, passing multiple days at a time, and more — but it works. Let’s not fix what’s not broken.
• We will have losing days, weeks, and even months. But discipline and consistency lead to long-term profits.

---

❌ LOSERS QUIT!

After January and February, some quit. TSP Portfolio was down 15%/units for 2025, and Hermes A.I. wasn’t on fire yet. So they gave up. Why? The money wasn’t fast enough or easy enough.

But those who stayed now see Hermes A.I. climb to +48.11%/unit bankroll growth and TSP Portfolio reach +20.15%/unit bankroll growth in 2025. Combined? Aggressive followers have experienced +68.26%/unit bankroll growth in just five months as of today. That’s the reward for patience.

---

🧠 Are You Really Following the Plan?

If you’re thinking, “I’m not up +68.26%/units,” ask yourself:

• Did you change your strategy?
• Did you follow someone else?
• Did you add your own bets not part of the system?

That’s likely why your results are different. Consistency is everything. Stick to the plan and the results will come. Audit your action with the daily logs at TheSharpPlays.com.

🚀 Let’s Keep Grinding 🍀🍀🍀

🧠 A Year-End Mystery: “Why Did I Lose?”

No matter how good the content does again for this year, I will undoubtedly hear from several people wondering how they managed to lose money during what will once again be a winning year for the TSP Portfolio and Hermes A.I.

They often say:

“I followed everything! How did I still lose?”

But the truth is, most didn’t actually follow everything—and that’s where the disconnect begins. Let’s break down the common traps.

---

🚨 Trap #1: Strategy Hopping

Many bettors can’t resist the temptation to chase the hot hand. When the TSP Portfolio or Hermes A.I. has a rough week, they abandon ship and jump to another handicapper who happens to be hot. But timing is cruel—you usually catch the cold streak of the new system right after abandoning the one about to turn hot.

❗ Important Reminder:
The Sharp Plays content has been public since 2011—15 years without a losing year!

Still, gamblers expect perfection:

• No losing months
• No losing weeks
• Not even a bad day

That’s just not how professional gambling works. And those unrealistic expectations lead to bad decision-making.

---

💸 Trap #2: Bankroll Mismanagement

Even those who stick with the right service often fall into another pit: poor bankroll management.

Here’s the truth:

📊 Bankroll management matters more than your win percentage.

You can have a sub-52% win rate and still be profitable if you know when to press and when to scale back. Most gamblers do the opposite:

• Press during cold runs
• Tighten during hot streaks

The result? Losses pile up even when the core strategy wins overall.

---

🎯 Trap #3: Betting Detours

Another mistake is straying from the plan. For example:

• You follow the TSP Portfolio…
• But suddenly throw down on the Yankees because “there’s no way they lose”
• Then toss in a UFC fighter bet for fun

You lose 3 units while TSP Live might have been up 3 units—you turned a winning day into a breakeven or losing one. Those “just this once” bets can snowball over time.

✅ Pro Tip:
Keep a separate bankroll for recreational or “hunch” bets, or limit them to small stakes—pizza money style. It scratches the itch without tanking your long-term profitability.

---

🤔 Trap #4: Overanalyzing – Trust the Data, Not Just Your Instincts

A common mistake among bettors using TSP content is deviating from the suggested strategy. It’s tempting to think you know better—and maybe sometimes you do—but more often, straying leads to underperformance.

The Hermes A.I. system is built on data-driven base wager risk levels, based on the score:

• 30–39: 1.00% of bankroll
• 40–49: 1.25%
• 50–59: 1.50%
• 60–69: 2.00%
• 70–79: 3.00%
• 80–89: 4.00%
• 90–100: 5.00%

You can find the full Hermes A.I. details anytime at TSP.Live/hermes.

The TSP Portfolio makes it even easier—each play includes the risk level right there with it.

Of course, you’re free to bet however you like: wager more, less, not at all, or even fade the picks. But understand—deviating from the TSP strategy means deviating from TSP’s performance. It’s your call, but the system is built on stats, not emotion. Follow the framework if you want to stay aligned with the results.

---

📉 The Harsh Reality: Most Bettors Aren’t Profitable

People love to believe they’re winning gamblers. But when they log every wager honestly, the truth usually surfaces—and it’s not pretty.

If you’re not tracking your action, you’re gambling blind.

---

🎉 What Sets Winners Apart

So when year-end rolls around and you see the celebration posts, but your bankroll doesn’t reflect that joy…check these things:

• Did you follow the system consistently?
• Did you manage your bankroll like a pro?
• Did you avoid side bets that added risk and noise?

If not, there’s still time to adjust. Let’s finish the year strong—together.

🤑 Good luck to us!

---

---

---

The day after the above article was published, I followed it up with additional commentary. The commentary fit with the above and got very positive reviews, so I figured I would include it with this article as well. I hope you enjoy…

🎢 The Grind is Real

Up on Monday, down on Tuesday—welcome to the grind, my degenerate friends!
This is the phase where professional bettors separate themselves from action junkies and perpetual losers. It’s what I discussed yesterday in my article:
👉 A TSP Year-End Mystery: Why Did I Lose?

---

🌟 When It’s Good, It’s Great

We all love those hot streaks like March and April, where everything seems to go right. And guess what? We’ll have more months like that before 2025 wraps up.

But the real question is:
How well do you manage yourself during the cold runs or sideways grinds while waiting for the next hot streak?

---

💸 If It Were Easy, Everyone Would Be Rich

Let’s face it—if gambling printed money daily, it would be boring (but hey, we’d live with it 😆). Still, the ups and downs are part of the entertainment…and what make the hot runs so euphoric.

That said, I cannot stress this enough—and it ties back to the article linked above:

The reason The Sharp Plays content has had 15 straight winning years since launching in 2011, and sportsbooks are still in business, is simple: even when given winning content, most gamblers still lose.

Why?
Because they lack the discipline to:

• Accept losing days, weeks and months
• Avoid pressing or chasing
• Stick with a consistent strategy

---

📉 Cold Streak? Don’t Panic—Pause

If the content is cold, it’s OK to pass. Don’t chase. Don’t switch strategies out of desperation.

Wait for the TSP Index to trend upward, then jump back in if you’re not comfortable riding the storm.
Yes, you may miss a few winners, but if you only bet during uptrends, and The Sharp Plays ends the year winning—you’ll be just fine too.

If you’re thinking, “Wait, TSP—you said to be consistent, and now you’re saying only bet during uptrends?”—you’re absolutely right. That is a consistent strategy. It’s just a different one from what TSP Live will be doing.

Only betting when the TSP Index is in an uptrend is a disciplined, mathematical approach. Yes, your results may differ from the full-year TSP performance, but historically, this method will still have you finishing well in the green by year’s end.

You can track the Index on the Hermes A.I. table—it’s:

• Linked at the top of every alert on TSP Live
• Accessible at TheSharpPlays.com by clicking “Index” in the site menu

This approach won’t eliminate all losing streaks, but it does reduce their frequency. If you find yourself struggling with self-control or emotional betting swings, this strategy helps protect your bankroll from…you.

---

🧠 Master the Mental Game

Gambling can be simple—if you get out of your own head. Stick to a strategy. Manage your bankroll. Stay disciplined.

How do I know?
Because that’s what I do. My income doesn’t come from The Sharp Plays—it comes from my own professional gambling, which you see reflected in the content.

---

📆 Consistency is Key (Even in Losing Months)

Yes, there will be losing months ahead. And yes, as a subscriber, that means paying for a losing month—and then coming right back to pay again next month.

Sound like sales talk? Maybe.
But it’s also the truth.

We don’t know in advance which months will be hot or cold. What we do know is this:

15 straight years of healthy annual profit have rewarded those with patience, consistency, and proper bankroll discipline.

There will be times when you lose in January, lose in February, and then come right back in March—only to see the content crush it. It’s tempting to think, “Why not just pay during the winning months?”

But let’s be real:
What would that even look like? Charging $0 for losing months and $500 for winning ones? In the end, it would average out to about the same as the current $179.99 per month—just dressed up to make some people feel better.

Like the gambling itself, pricing and content delivery are consistent.
Unfortunately, not every subscriber is.

There are people who didn’t like the results in December or January, so they skipped February, March, and April—and missed out on massive profits.

If you’re going to be a TSP Live subscriber, commit through the ups and downs. Or don’t subscribe at all.
No hard feelings—just be consistent, whatever your choice.

I truly appreciate everyone who supports this grind, and I’ll always do everything I can to help you succeed. But I also recognize that this path isn’t for everyone—and that’s OK.

Just be honest with yourself. Know your limits.
Self-awareness is one of the most underrated tools in a gambler’s arsenal.

---

🍽️ Final Bite of Food for Thought

This grind isn’t for everyone—but if you can respect the process, control your impulses, and ride the waves with clarity and consistency, the rewards are there. Every year.

Let’s keep grinding,
The Sharp Plays

The following was originally posted in mid-April and is now being updated based on where things stand now and added to the ‘Education’ section on TSP.Live for future reference…

TSP Insiders Purchases Moving to TSP.Live

A new update is coming to streamline how you purchase selections from TSP Insiders, starting with Tony The Bookie and the new MLB addition to the TSP Insiders team. Wolf’s sales will remain at his WHOP of AnalyticsWolf.com.

Instead of going through TSPInsiders.com directly, you’ll purchase Tony’s selections the same way you subscribe to TSP Live packages…via TSP.Live/register. Simply visit the “Subscribe” link in the menu, where you’ll find an option labeled “TSP INSIDERS SELECTION – Tony The Bookie.”

⚠️⚠️ Note: There is no active selection available right now via the above method—this is just a heads-up on how the process will work. ⚠️⚠️
I expect to test this setup with a live selection this coming week.

How It Will Work:

• Visit the “Subscribe” link in the TSP.Live website menu.
• Choose the TSP Insiders selection from the list of available subscriptions.
• Complete your payment through the familiar TSP.Live checkout system.
• After payment, you’ll be redirected to view the play.
  (If you aren’t redirected, just visit TSP.Live/tspinsiders, login if you aren’t already, and the play will be accessible at that link for anyone who purchased.)

Wolf’s picks will still be processed via WHOP, because that is where he does all his processing for his direct clients, but all other TSP Insider plays will go through TSP.Live moving forward.

TSPInsiders.com will remain fully functional, but clicking the “Purchase” link in the website menu (starting shortly) will direct you to TSP.Live for a listing of any available plays and the ability to checkout.

Why the Change?

This update allows a single login for both TSP Live and TSP Insiders purchases/access…simplifying access and improving user experience. Previously, the TSP Live platform didn’t support this functionality, but a recent software upgrade made it possible.

Those of you with TSP Insiders Wallets, there will be a system on TSPInsiders.com to easily login and purchase using wallet funds. The TSP Insiders Wallet will be phased out. Those of you will crypto purchases for TSP Insiders will be given an alternate option for easy access/purchasing.

Stay tuned for Part 2 and further details.

Good luck!

The purpose of this article is to familiarize you with the Hermes program. I will discuss how Hermes was born, the future of the Hermes content (short-term and long-term), then discuss the issues of Hermes content. The goal is to bring readers up to speed on how we got here and what to expect in the future.

Hermes was a program that launched back in November 2021. The program ran through very early 2023 and then was sent back into R&D (research & development). Hermes was successful/profitable during its run, despite having some rough cold periods in the summer of 2022. However, overall Hermes closed with a good profit. So, why was the project paused? The answer was simple…speed. If Hermes was going to truly be an automated betting analyst then it needed to be as fast as possible. Hermes could analyze in-play betting in 25-30 seconds. Doesn’t sound long but for in-play betting this is an eternity. Hermes needed to be dialed down to under 3 seconds. Even if Hermes is assessing pregame content…books move FAST…so Hermes needed to be faster. Hermes needed to react to market action before the books reacted. However, the updates needed weren’t just due to speed. During the run of Hermes from 2021 into 2023, there was a lot of data that built up and it was always the goal to take Hermes offline and use the data to optimize Hermes. Once Hermes was speed boosted and optimized then The Sharp Plays would re-release the Hermes program at a later date in a new optimized version.

Wait…why the name Hermes? Is it an acronym for something? In Greek mythology, Hermes was the god of gambling because he was associated with luck, wealth, and trickery. He was also the messenger of the gods, and was believed to have invented dice. So, not only was Hermes the Greek god of gambling, but he was also a messenger of the gods. Perfect name…Hermes is the messenger between the betting markets and us degenerates…bringing quality information and wagers…and is known as the god of gambling & luck…and we can always use more luck! EXCELLENT!

Moving on…there were A LOT of major developments in A.I. technology in 2023 and 2024. So, while Hermes was being optimized, the team I worked with saw a lot of potential in new A.I. programming to really revolutionize Hermes. After substantial investment from The Sharp Plays, both in hardware and substantial programming…billed hourly (LOL!), the Hermes A.I. program was relaunched privately in the summer of 2024. After a lot of testing stops and starts, along with various updates, upgrades, and tweaks, Hermes was reintroduced to TSP Live subscribers in December 2024 on a very limited basis. Hermes missed a couple big parlays by just one leg…showing some good potential right out of the box…especially in light of the public and overall downtrend for sharp action during December.

Hermes then went offline for a week at the very end of December and early January as it was moved to a proper hardware/server configuration to handle the necessary operations for live action. All the databases and communications were linked up and Hermes went live on January 10th. I tested the program privately for a couple days and when everything looked like it was ready for prime-time…Hermes went live in full for The Sharp Plays as “Hermes Pro” on January 13th, 2025.

Since then, over the course of 150+ selections and the delivery of a lot of compelling content, intel, and information…that went beyond the selections, Hermes exceeded all my expectations…no hyperbole. Hermes immediately began delivering content in low level markets I had never covered before…like Costa Rican and Argentinian soccer…and did it with great success! As you have probably seen up to this point, the dynamism of Hermes is pretty much unmatched in terms of the content it can provide. For starters, there are the Hermes scores/selections which you have seen a lot of over the past month. Hermes selections occur when the bot scans all the betting markets and begins ranking wagers by score. Select scores above 30, with a low probability of dropping below 30, are released as “Hermes Selections” across The Sharp Plays various platforms…free and paid. However, the “Hermes Selections” are actually just a very tiny part of the Hermes content & capabilities.

Recently, I showed a query where I asked Hermes what the best betting angle over the previous 7 days was and Hermes brought forward an angle that when two specific sharp groups placed the same wager (names of the sharp groups were redacted publicly) that the selection was 13-2 over the previous week. Great! I could then ask Hermes to also analyze this angle over any time period for which it has data…in this case going back years. Within seconds, Hermes showed me that the performance was quite strong. So, in just that one simple query that popped into my head and which I threw at Hermes, we now have a betting angle that we can use moving forward. I can now have Hermes create an alert anytime that combination occurs. I could even have Hermes find me the best bettor, at the sportsbooks with which Hermes is connected, when it comes to betting on Getafe matches in La Liga soccer. Within seconds, Hermes will issue me the account with the best performance betting on Getafe matches. I can then have Hermes see if this bettor has any active action on the Getafe match going today AND I can tell Hermes to send me an alert whenever this bettor wagers on a Getafe match! EXACTLY…your mind is spinning now with the possibilities just like mine does. Think of the countless searches and angles I can ask of Hermes and which it can deliver…but even that isn’t all. We are still just scratching the surface.

Hermes can analyze stats and data to create implied probabilities of events. For example, I want to know what Dawson Knox’s price for Any TD should be. I can ask Hermes and the program will analyze Knox in home/away situations, versus the current opponent, in the expected type of weather and temperature, against similar opponents and 1000’s of other data points to let me know that Knox should be +400 today. I see Knox is +525 for Any TD…I have a value. Hermes can calculate spreads for any matchup, prop or wager for which Hermes has data.

If there is a gambling question you can think of…I can present it to Hermes for an answer. Think about that for a second. Think about the potential of the program…and that’s just based on current technology. Imagine the potential evolution that will lay ahead as computing power and data expands. Yeah, it’s pretty exciting!

Hermes can even analyze itself. If selections with scores of 30-35 are under-performing, Hermes can find things within those selections…correlations that are delivering a poor quality performance and then avoid those correlations or even fade them depending on long-term assessment of the correlations…all done by Hermes. Yes, sports handicapping done by humans is winding down rapidly!

Beyond just the mental processing of the conscious mind, another negative of a human at the helm of a data driven business like gambling is humans have needs and wants. I love all of you for your support and allowing me to create & maintain something like Hermes thanks to that support…BUT…as a human, I like to smell the roses from time to time. What good is life if you don’t get to live?!?! I want to enjoy some relaxing travel after the football season. It works out fine, and it is something I have done every year with zero material effect on TSP content or its performance, but if I am having lunch then I am not monitoring the betting action or the intel coming over the book’s group chat. If I am at a craps table then I am not monitoring the markets. If I am sleeping on a flight to Europe…yes…no TSP content. Such situations are no longer an issue with Hermes. First, Hermes sends me alerts all day long when various criteria are met in the betting markets. With the touch of a button I can forward those alerts to you. BETTER YET…I can set Hermes to autopilot and Hermes can issue any alert I program automatically. So, if I don’t want you to miss any Group Buys or scores above 60 while I am at my massage, I can program Hermes with a couple clicks to send any Large Group Buy alerts or Hermes Selections with scores above 60 right to TSP Live subscribers….meaning I will find out about the plays at the same time you do…or perhaps long after you because I was getting some deep tissue action at the time of the alert! Hermes is basically an assistant I can put in charge of TSP content…once the kinks are worked out…and sit back and just make sure it doesn’t burn the place down! LOL! So, let’s discuss how those kinks will get worked out.

It is very easily to be overwhelmed by the volume of Hermes content and find yourself betting far more than you normally would. So, the rollout will continue on a step by step basis.

Month #1 (January 13th through February 13th): I monitored and managed Hermes…releasing content as felt right based on my experience and with the goal of not making it overwhelming. I selected and dictated TSP Portfolio risk on any Hermes content. At the same time I discussed various queries I presented to Hermes to show the potential and capabilities of the program and how they went well beyond just the Hermes Selections and scores. To say this “showcasing” period was a success would be putting it very mildly. Over 30 days, Hermes win percentage was 56.77% on 158 selections with a bankroll ROI of +21.90% or units with a return on risk of +12.58%!!!!! Remember, anything above a 5% return on risk in gambling is considered “exceptional” performance and achieved by less than 1% of bettors!!!

Month #2 (February 14th through Selection Sunday on March 16th): I am going to put Hermes in charge of issuing TSP Portfolio wagers and issue more alerts on its own when angles or key scores develop. More aggressive bettors may choose to still wager on every Hermes Selection with a score above 30, but Hermes will also be the Director of Trading for the TSP Portfolio. I program Hermes with the risk level (low), Portfolio bankroll size (100%), what Hermes base wager limits are per wager (0.1% to 5.0%) the mission of the TSP Portfolio (to start at 0, build house money and then get aggressive through the end of the year when it starts over at 0 again in 2026) and then activate the bot within the bot. The goal in Month #2 will be to get Hermes ready for March Madness action. There are so many great opportunities for in-play wagering and the action that goes on during March Madness that I want to have Hermes ready to rock and roll in full and to take over the tournaments! The important part of Month #2 is to ensure Hermes can manage the TSP Portfolio autonomously and without human interaction. I am excited and concerned about this phase. Concerned because there is never a guarantee that winning will be automatic right out of the gate. If Hermes can turn it back hot again, this could be the perfect time for this transition…if not, then human interaction might be necessary.

Month #3 (March Madness to mid-April): Hermes will be operating mostly autonomously…issuing alerts to TSP Live and Twitter/X/Telegram…assuming it has been working well up to this time.

May through August: Hermes will continue operating as lead content and Director of Trading for the TSP Portfolio, but will go through a series of further updates and upgrades based on the data and performance up to this point. The goal of this phase is getting Hermes ready to take the lead for the football season and kick its content into the next gear. Not just Hermes Selections and dictating Portfolio risk, but issuing a variety of alerts to keep TSP Live subscribers informed on the market action.

Becoming the lead content in the long-term means that Hermes will replace every algorithm and analytic (like TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus, Book Needs, etc.) because those tables and algorithms are now part of Hermes programming. So, that content isn’t going anywhere…it’s just integrated within Hermes. Want to know if there’s a KB Consensus play…no worries…Hermes will issue an alert when one occurs. Are you a big fan of the large Group Buys? No worries…Hermes will issue an alert when one of those occurs too. Love when the TSP Live Radar rises above 74? Yep, Hermes will let you know. Worried about a wager dropping 10 points on the TSP Live Radar…yep…Hermes will let you know. So, all your favorite TSP content isn’t going anywhere, it’s just that Hermes is being put in charge of managing, monitoring and reporting all of it. The Hermes table in TSP Live (yes, it will be expanding in the weeks and months ahead) will be the main location for a lot of content…with Hermes alerts delivering the key actionable angles and Portfolio wagers.

So, yes…Hermes is an absolute game-changer in terms of what it can provide to TSP content and by extension the audience of bettors reading this right now. With anything in life there is yin and yang.

So let’s discuss the negatives for a complete picture. With all this data that Hermes can provide, there is definite potential for “analysis paralysis”. Analysis paralysis is what happens when you have so much intel/data, and are so thoroughly informed, that you don’t know what to bet. It’s like when you have a game where you research that Team A is 27-0 as a home dog…which they are tonight, but Team B is 27-0 as a road favorite on Fridays….which angle do you take? You are so thoroughly informed about the good and bad on both sides you can’t decide! Sure, that’s not the case for every game, but a lot of games have so much positive and negative intel mixed in that you don’t know which way to go. The way I mitigate this with Hermes is by bringing my experience to the table when I analyze the Hermes outputs. I become the final filter to clean up the wealth of information and provide a concise picture and limit content to the TSP audience. Another way to mitigate analysis paralysis is just let Hermes do its thing within set parameters.

The other issue with Hermes, like anything, is of course financial. I am not going to beat around any bush because maintaining such a project does require server space, specific hardware, dozens of data subscriptions, content deals, etc. However, that does not mean TSP Live’s price is going up. It merely means that there will likely be occasions where there is Hermes content outside TSP Live. For example, when Hermes content is provided through TSP Insiders. Let’s say in a month there are 100 Hermes Selections (the first 30 days have seen over 150 Hermes Selections), and 80 are provided in TSP Live, 10 are provided through TSP Insiders, and 10 are provided free on Telegram/X. A TSP Live subscriber who choses not to purchase any TSP Insiders content would be getting access to 90 out of every 100 Hermes selections. No price increases, nothing new…and there will of course be Hermes content in TSP Live beyond just selections…adding further value to the TSP Live subscription. Oh and there WILL NOT be any TSP Portfolio action that is outside TSP Live unless it is published free on Twitter/X/Telegram. So, a TSP Live subscriber WILL GET 100% of TSP Portfolio action either in TSP Live or free through social media.

However, it does mean there will be some Hermes content tied in with TSP Insiders releases (like Wolf’s package that is going on now) and these offerings will be a separate purchase. No, all the top scores will not be kept for TSP Insiders or sold as individual purchases. I am not sure why your brain automatically goes to some nefarious thing of how The Sharp Plays can fuck all of you. I don’t think the TSP brand has tried to gouge you up to this point in any way. In fact, to illustrate the character of The Sharp Plays brand and platforms, TSP Insider Wolf sold a 7 day package for $20-$25 with NO GUARANTEE. The package is still going on today…18 days later! Who else in this industry does these sorts of things. For $20-$25 anywhere else you would have gotten a single selection, and that was it, win or lose!

My goal is to keep TSP Live’s price steady through 2025. I will remind you back in 2019 that paid content worked out to $200 per month…and TSP Live is still below that level despite two price increases over the last 6 years.

However, the sale of Hermes content in conjunction with TSP Insiders would allow The Sharp Plays to mitigate Hermes costs…without raising prices within TSP Live or selling Hermes as a separate package. I cannot and will not predict the future of the content, but again the goal is never to gouge anyone. The Sharp Plays and its subscribers are a team…but while I do enjoy supporting a lot of charities…The Sharp Plays is not a charity. There is a financial component to things and there are a lot of costs to be covered.

So, don’t get all panicked that to follow Hermes on every wager will cost you $2,500 per month. The plan is that you will get 100% of TSP Portfolio action and 90% of Hermes content with no price increase and nothing further to buy other than a TSP Live subscription and monitoring social media.

The other 10% of Hermes content will be in conjunction with TSP Insiders. To pretend I know what the next 1,2,5+ years hold would be foolish, but this is the plan as it stands right now for the rest of 2025.

I can’t believe you made it this far. Nice job! I believe you should now have a general picture of what to expect from Hermes for the rest of the year and the evolution to come in the days and weeks ahead.

I welcome any questions and feedback! I appreciate feedback when it is constructive on making The Sharp Plays content perform better. Anything else is usually a waste of time, but feel free to send it over. I will likely be slammed with messages after this is published, so please allow me a bit to get back to everyone.

Thank you for making Hermes possible and I hope it pays all of us a lot of dividends to make the time and investment worthwhile! Good luck in your action!

Great Article:  https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/sports-betting-study-5d9a0044

Here are the highlights…

“A new study by Stanford University researchers finds that the average online sportsbook customer expects a gain of 0.3 cent for every dollar wagered. In reality, sports bettors lose an average of 7.5 cents per dollar wagered, reflecting ‘widespread overoptimism about financial returns,’ according to Matthew Brown, a Stanford doctoral student and lead author of the study.“

“The findings: 10% of bettors were overly optimistic about their potential winnings by more than 20 cents per dollar wagered; 80% were also found to be overly optimistic, but not to the same degree as the most overoptimistic; and the remaining 9% of bettors underestimated their actual future returns.” 

“We found that people more or less understood the amount of money they had lost in the past, but they just thought the future would be better,” Brown says.

Gambling is a mental game, and until you can manage your expectations and accept betting reality, you will always be pissed off and annoyed at gambling when it fails to deliver on your expectations.

Set reasonable LONG-TERM (i.e. 12 months) expectations and work to exceed them. Too many gamblers set high SHORT-TERM expectations (days, weeks, 2-4 months), fail to achieve them and press and chase to get there. These gamblers make me sad…because I wish I was their bookie!

Good luck!

I’m always asked how I got into sports betting. The first gambling memory I have goes to when I was very young. Based on the house we were living in at the time, I honestly had to be 6-8 years old. It’s funny, the memories you retain from that age are very limited, so for this to be one of those memories says something about me and perhaps what my path in life was intended to be.

Anyway, when I was 6-8 years old I recall seeing my dad with one of the old parlay tickets. It was on the corner of the side table in our living room. For those who don’t remember or even know what these are…they are those white strips of paper where “All Ties Lose” and a four teamer pays 10-1. These cards were passed around workplaces like crazy in the 70’s through the 90’s…and sometimes even today (click here for the best picture I could find showing one). I asked my dad what it was and he briefly explained the parlay ticket or parlay card as they were know…teams get points because it would be too easy to pick outright winners, you bet money and get paid if you are correct on everything you pick. My dad didn’t bet with a bookie or anything, just take a shot at a parlay card each week for fun. Yep, even at that young age, the thought of picking sports teams and winning money was injected into my blood. My degenerate gland was activated!

People say you know from an early age what you were meant to be…what your destiny would entail…it’s just a matter of whether you listen or not…and what path you follow to get there. I was way too young to be excited about gambling on a parlay ticket…but I was! Looking back now it is clear the universe was dropping me hints. The universe would drop me a lot of hints along the way, I am glad I listened. I will save those for another story at another time!

Fast forward to when I was around 12. I was out shopping with my mother at one of those stores which sells various discount items. The store would be similar to a Dollar General today. Well, in this store there was a book area and my eye caught this green and white book with the title “Betting To Win on Sports” by Wayne Alan Root. I knew nothing about Wayne Root at the time, just that it was a book about betting sports to win money…EXCELLENT! Just what I wanted to do…bet sports and win! I was jacked and I asked my mother to get it for me. Thankfully it was a book, so she didn’t pay much attention to the title as she threw it into the cart! It was definitely discounted to less than $5…because the listed retail price on the back was only $8.95. LOL! It was without a doubt the first book I ever read on gambling…and funny enough, I have kept the book through the years because of what it meant to my journey. I wish I could have kept that first parlay ticket I saw my dad with, it would have made for a GREAT artifact in the TSP Gambling Museum! Below are actual photos of my copy of Wayne Root’s book as it looks today…

The book is still around, with used versions available for purchase through various outlets. It’s hardly some Bible of sports betting success. I don’t even know if the strategies were good, but it’s a book that made me think about gambling in different ways and only increased my interest in the business. It made me think more analytically…even at 12 years old…yeah, I was a nerd…and a degenerate. If you want to have a fun read or check out the book yourself, there are (at least as I type) a couple used copies on Amazon…

https://www.amazon.com/Betting-Sports-Wayne-Allyn-Root/dp/0553347896/

Anyway, people always ask me how I got started and these two occasions…the parlay ticket with my dad and then a few years later with the book, were without a doubt key to leading me on my gambling path. There were a lot of steps along the path, and breadcrumbs that kept me moving forward, but without the parlay card or the book, I may never have gotten into gambling.

I don’t know what your path in life is meant to be. Sometimes people think it is one thing, or want it to be one thing, but their actual destiny is something else. I do believe you get little hints along the way and the question is whether you follow those hints to your destiny or you tear off the path in another direction, spending your time on earth always searching but never finding…and at best only achieving minor successes. It will feel “different” when one of those universal hints get dropped in front of you…it makes you stop for a brief second as your brain says…wait a minute…there is something more to this. Do you then blow right by or sit back and think deeply about what it might mean? When you think you figured it out, follow that path and keep an eye out for the breadcrumbs along the way which provide the reassurance that you are on your path. Yes, we all have free will, but that doesn’t mean the universe won’t drop hints in front of you to help you get to your destiny. Your free will is whether you listen or not.

Not everyone’s path leads to riches in money and power. It’s about fulfillment…and whatever that means to your soul. My aunt’s path was to be a teacher…to educate kids and help them achieve their greatness. She wasn’t poor by any means, but she also wasn’t wealthy…but that didn’t matter to her. There are few people I have ever met who loved their life more than my aunt loved hers. The energy she had teaching, to anyone watching her do it, knew that was her destiny…and she was without a doubt fulfilled by it.

My path was gambling. I wanted other successes and things in life, and I took shots to get them, but it never seemed to work out. When I got back on the gambling path…everything would almost immediately come together for me. I stopped fighting it…and I am glad I did. While I think how much fun it would be to have Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos business successes, and be looking to spend my pocket change on buying and NFL team, that’s not my destiny. It’s all good though, because gambling has given me more in life than I ever could have imagined…and it keeps giving me more and more to this very day. It’s where I was meant to be and I am incredibly fulfilled by it…and continuously look forward to what the future holds!

I hope all of you find total fulfillment out of your lives!

Look at me I am Tony Robbins now! LOL! 😂 😂 😂

Good luck to you in your life’s journey! 🍀

💰People don’t think a 10% ROI on sports bets is a big deal.

At 3 bets per day you would double your bankroll every year at that rate!

A $100 per unit bettor ($110 risk), $10,000 bankroll, would have a $22,045 bankroll ($12,045 profit) after 1 year.#ExponentialGrowth pic.twitter.com/mbD4NYdzQh

— The Sharp Plays (@TheSharpPlays) March 8, 2024

Many people misunderstand betting ROI and ROR. Recently, I mentioned that the TSP Portfolio had an ROR of +5.6% for the football season. Some assume that means if you have a $10,000 bankroll, you made $560. That’s far from accurate.

In professional gambling, two key return metrics define a bettor’s quality:

1️⃣ Return on Risk (ROR): This measures profit relative to every dollar or unit risked—not your bankroll.
2️⃣ Bankroll ROI: This calculates profit against your total bankroll.

The difference is significant. For example, the TSP Portfolio’s 2024 ROR is +8.54%, meaning for every $1 wagered, the return is $0.0854 in profit. It might not seem like much, but it’s how a casino operates.

Consider roulette: The house edge in American roulette (with two zeros) is just 5.26%. That means for every $1 you bet, the casino grinds away $0.0526 over time. That steady “nickel per dollar” loss is why players eventually go broke. You don’t lose just 5.26% of your buy-in after an hour of play—you’re often completely wiped out.

The same math applies to winning bettors—just in reverse. Instead of losing to the house, you’re the one grinding out profits over time.

TSP Portfolio currently has a total bankroll gain of +87.3% (units) off an +8.54% ROR per wager.

So, if you have a $500,000 bankroll, meaning an average wager of $5,000, you made $436,500 (+87.3% bankroll ROI) this year…and $1,743,500 since January 1st, 2023…with no thinking…in exchange for $6 or less per day! Oh wait…you bet $10,000 per wager? You made $873,000 this year…and $3,487,000 since January 1st, 2023. See how a “little” +8.54% return on risk adds up to a sizable bankroll gain?

Do you now see why ChatGPT says anyone with a return on risk (ROR) of +5% or more is “exceptional”? The numbers and logs of every wager do not lie…the math tells the story…check it all out for yourself at TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/.

My goal isn’t to convince the idiots in the audience that the TSP Portfolio is good…it’s to show those of you interested in learning how what seem to be very small return on risk (ROR) percentages….like even the 1-2% that ChatGPT states most professional sports bettors achieve…may seem small but the profits add up when grinding that return on every single dollar/unit wagered/risked.

It all seems so easy, what’s the catch?!?!? Oh, it’s a big one…YOU ARE THE CATCH! Those of you who shit your pants when the TSP Portfolio is on a 2-13 run…or is 0-20 it’s last 20 wagers…and forget all the past performance leading up to that run. Those of you who can’t wait for the hot streak to come, so you press and chase aggressively in a cold streak and destroy your bankroll. Why? Lack of patience! Do you see why I preach patience every day?!? If you could just bet like a robot, not be a sniveling baby during EVERY COLD STREAK or individual loss…and just ride the ups and downs, the above math shows the pot of gold at the end of the patience tunnel. It’s just so many of you will never survive the patience journey!

Just because TSP Portfolio has great performance numbers does not mean you won’t have PLENTY of ice cold runs throughout the year. Statistically, you should have 2 cold runs on average per month!! If you could just be patient during those cold runs…they are always offset by the eventual hot runs. If only more people had patience in gambling they would see the power of the above math…and might chill out a little when wagering.

Good luck!

The public has epic runs all the time; it’s just that their losing runs tend to be longer and more epic than any of their winning runs. However, from time to time, the public gets a BIG ONE! The “big ones” do not happen often though. The last “big one” for the public, that achieved the current level of performance was back in 2005 when the public just printed money in the NFL from the start of October and into November. Well, this current season…19 years later…the public is on another printing money run in the NFL that has equaled the 2005. If the public can cash again this week…it will eclipse the 2005 run and potentially be an “all-timer”.

The question people will ask is…did the public get smarter? Well, back in 2005, people asked the same question. People thought that computers, the Internet and the free flow of volumes of information on the games would make for smarter bettors. Did it? Well, since then the sportsbooks have made BILLIONS and BILLIONS and BILLIONS…so I would say that is not the case. For those who think this is now the time when the public has figured it out…I will say the same thing I said back then…NO CHANCE!

Diving into my sportsbooks records from my first year in the industry (1997), I see that point spread wagers placed by bettors rated as “casual” a.k.a. public bettors, cashed at 49.9%. Last year (2023), wagers placed by bettors classified as public/casual, cashed at 50.2%. So, in that way, over 26 years and despite all the technological advances, computer software, artificial intelligence, proliferation of sports services and sports gambling media, exponential expansion of the Internet and flow of information…public bettors have increased their performance by 0.3%. So, yes…the public has gotten bettor (in theory…because this win percentage will vary year to year), however the public needs to hit a minimum of 52.4% to turn a profit betting point spreads…still a touch off! LOL

At the current rate of performance increase, the public will achieve 52.4% in 125 years or 2149.

Best public performance since 1997 was in 2005…yes, that epic year when the public cashed at a rate of 51.1% across all sports and all point spreads. So, the public still lost overall since they need 52.4%, but the power they had in NFL pulled them up, along with success in NBA that year.

Worst public performance since 1997 was in 2008…yes…the year after the epic public run in 2005…can you say “regression”? In 2008, the public cashed at 48.7%.

Since 1997 the public win percentage each year has bounced between 51.1% and 48.7%.

Statistically, even in random environments…which is what public betting performance is, there will be statistical anomalies which veer way outside the normal variance. Epic public runs are these anomalies. What makes an “anomaly” and anomaly is the fact that they are RARE…but they happen. It is important to understand that “rare” is not the same as “never”. You are seeing a major anomaly right now…19 years after the last major one.

So, now that we accept that the public is on a run, albeit an ultra epic run, but that we also accept that the public will inevitably give it all back and then some…like they always have since the beginning of gambling back in roughly 3000 BCE…what strategy can we implement to take advantage of the expected and upcoming public regression run???

Well, there are some basics…

First, we will want to see what teams in the NFL the book needs to win/cover each week. If the public is going to lose and the books are going to get their money back, these “needs” will be the key wins the book has to get to see a momentum change.

Second, an added filter if you don’t like the idea of just blind betting Book Needs as a strategy for betting public regression would be to target angles where there is not just a book need, but where sharp money agrees with the book need.

Sounds easy enough because what to bet during public regression is pretty simple…FADE THE PUBLIC! The hard part is knowing the timing of when to begin such an attack strategy. While we cannot predict the future…and that’s why gambling exists…we can look for hints at a turn. What does these hints look like?

Well, yesterday, prior to the Monday Night Football game, I discussed in a TSP Live alert the following…

Since the public prefers favorites over dogs. Since the public likes the flashy teams over the underperforming teams (like Miami) you would assume the public is going to go in on the LA Rams…and so far that’s EXACTLY what they are doing…spread, moneyline, 1st Quarter, 1st Half, etc. It’s why you see this price was Miami +1 not that long ago, and now some books are up to +3…without any counter move in sight. You also see Miami was not on the Book Needs table all week and has now shown up there. It could be the sharps haven’t arrived yet because why not just sit back and let this price run to +3 around the whole market, let the highest limits hit, and then take Miami. and maybe get a very juicy +3.

None of this means the public’s hot run doesn’t continue, but the run is closer to the end than the beginning. So, I will take some shots here and there to try and get the turn and catch the run. There is no guarantee the public gets crushed tonight BUT it would be a great result for the book given the volume on the LA Rams if this was the one game that the book got beginning to end (1st Quarter, 1st Half, Spread, Moneyline, etc) and that means a Miami wire to wire outright win. Can they do it?!?!? Can the Dolphins make the day and put a cherry on top to what is only a slight profit for the books on the week? If they don’t some books will have a negative week in NFL…again.

The answer to the above was “yes”! Also, take note of the underlined sections…(1) the run is closer to the end than the beginning, (2) if this is the turn “it would be a great result for the book given the volume on the LA Rams if this was the one game that the book got beginning to end (1st Quarter, 1st Half, Spread, Moneyline, etc) and that means a Miami wire to wire outright win“. In the end, the books got the wire to wire outright Miami victory…

Miami 1Q Spread ✅
Miami 1Q Moneyline ✅
Miami 1H Spread ✅
Miami 1H Moneyline ✅
Miami Game Spread ✅
Miami Game Moneyline ✅

So, that’s what the turn tends to begin with…a good wire to wire beating on a major public play. Any other hints that a turn is upon us?

We can also look to past performance to gauge timing. If this week goes the way of the public then it will make this run the biggest public run in perhaps 30 years or more…since the only comparable run I have seen was in 2005 and my data goes back to 1995 (I got into the industry in 1997, but saved book data from 1995). So, if we assume the public won’t break the 2005 record…then this is the week to take a shot on public regression and likely look to target the public fade…and perhaps some of those fades, when targeting underdogs, by using the moneyline too!

We will see if the public breaks a record, but if they do not and this week provides some regression, then in the weeks ahead I will be looking hard at those Book Needs, and especially the Book Need + Sharp Buy combo bets!

Thanks for giving this article a read!

Good luck!

RAW PDF Files of ChatGPT Response: Page 1, Page 2

Since people may not want to believe me, I asked an independent source the question and got their response. My independent source was ChatGPT and I asked the following question: “what is the average ROI for a professional sports bettor”. Here’s what ChatGPT said…

The average ROI (Return on Investment) for a professional sports bettor can vary widely depending on the individual’s skill level, strategy, sport, and overall market conditions. However, in general, a “good” ROI for a professional sports bettor is typically in the range of 2% to 5%. Let’s break this down further:

1. Low ROI (1%–2%):

• Many professionals will be happy with a consistent ROI of around 1% to 2%. While this might seem low, in a field with high variance and the costs associated with betting (e.g., commissions, software, data, etc.), a 1%-2% ROI can still be quite profitable over the long term.

2. Moderate ROI (3%–5%):

• An ROI in this range is considered excellent. Bettors who can consistently achieve a 3% to 5% ROI have likely mastered certain sports or betting markets and have access to high-quality data and analytics. These bettors are often experts in one or two sports and specialize in specific markets (e.g., player props, futures, or niche betting options).

3. High ROI (5%+):

• Anything above 5% is very rare and would typically indicate exceptional skill, an edge in a particular market, or an advantage in finding inefficiencies that the broader betting community hasn’t noticed. These bettors may use advanced models, statistical analysis, or have insider information to generate their edge.

4. Factors Impacting ROI:

• Betting Volume: High-volume bettors may have a lower ROI but make up for it with sheer scale. Conversely, low-volume bettors may have a higher ROI but fewer overall bets.
• Sports/Markets Chosen: ROI can be better in niche or lesser-known sports with less efficient markets, whereas popular sports like NFL or NBA have very efficient betting lines, making it harder to find an edge.
• Betting Strategy: Professional bettors who use sharp betting strategies, like value betting, line shopping, or betting with contrarian approaches, will often see better ROI than those who just bet based on intuition or emotion.
• Bankroll Management: Proper bankroll management and avoiding “chasing losses” is key for maintaining a positive ROI.

5. Challenges:

• Bookmaker Limits: As bettors become more successful, bookmakers may limit the size of their bets, which can reduce the overall ROI.
• Edge Diminishment: The more a bettor wins, the more difficult it becomes to maintain an edge. This is because betting markets adjust based on new information, and lines become sharper.

In summary, a 2%–5% ROI is typically the target for a professional sports bettor, and even this requires skill, discipline, and a long-term perspective. It’s important to note that sports betting is inherently risky, and short-term losses can occur even for skilled bettors. A positive ROI over a large sample of bets is generally what separates a professional from a casual bettor.

So, you don’t have to believe me, ChatGPT says the typical ROI for a professional sports bettor is 2-5% and to quote ChatGPT, “Anything above 5% is very rare and would typically indicate exceptional skill, an edge in a particular market, or an advantage in finding inefficiencies that the broader betting community hasn’t noticed. These bettors may use advanced models, statistical analysis, or have insider information to generate their edge.“

TSP Portfolio lifetime ROI (Portfolio records & logs) is +16.6% and +8.8% in 2024!

Good luck!