One of the most consistently misunderstood concepts in gambling is the difference between Return on Investment (ROI) and Return on Risk (ROR).
Recently, I mentioned that the TSP Portfolio had a +5.6% ROR for the football season, and right away I saw a bunch of people assume that means if they had a $10,000 bankroll, they made $560.
Thatās not even close.
š Letās Break This Down
In professional betting, two key performance metrics define your long-term success:
1ļøā£ Return on Risk (ROR)
This is profit made per dollar or unit wagered.
- Example: A +5% ROR means you earn $0.05 for every $1 you risk.
- The focus here is not your bankrollāitās the grind on each individual dollar wagered.
2ļøā£ Bankroll ROI
This measures how much profit youāve made as a percentage of your total bankroll.
- Example: If you started with $10,000 and youāre up $8,730, your ROI is +87.3%.
See the difference? ROR is about efficiency and edge per dollar risked. ROI is the result of that efficiency compounded over your bankroll.
š° Casinos Work the Same Way
Still think 5% ROR sounds small? Consider American roulette, which has a house edge of 5.26%. That means:
- For every $1 you bet, you lose 5.26 cents.
- Over time, that ānickel per dollarā grind bankrupts players.
Now flip the script. Instead of slowly bleeding your money, youāre the houseāyouāre earning that nickel per dollar, every time you bet.
Thatās the math behind professional betting. You grind profits over time, not by hitting 80% win rates (which is fantasy), but by being consistent and patient with a small but positive edge.
š TSP Portfolio Results: Why the Math Works
Letās use 2024 data from the TSP Portfolio as an example:
- ROR: +8.54%
- Bankroll ROI: +87.3%
So, letās run a couple of bankroll scenarios:
| Bankroll | Avg. Bet | 2024 Profit | Total Since Jan 1, 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $5,000 | $436,500 | $1,743,500 |
| $1,000,000 | $10,000 | $873,000 | $3,487,000 |
And thatās with zero thinking and a subscription that costs less than $6/day.
This is why ChatGPT and every major betting model says a +5% ROR is exceptional.
Most āprofessional bettorsā donāt even reach +2%.
š¤ So, Whatās the Catch?
YOU. ARE. THE. CATCH.
People LOVE the math…until a cold streak hits. Then suddenly:
- They forget all the past performance.
- They panic during a 2-13 stretch.
- They press and chase.
- They burn their bankrolls before the hot run inevitably arrives.
Thatās why I preach patience like a monk with a megaphone. You want to be a pro? Then act like one. Cold streaks are not a glitchāthey are a feature of professional gambling.
You donāt survive and thrive in this game because you never lose. You thrive because you donāt lose your mind when you lose.
š Cold Runs Are a GuaranteeāNot a Surprise
Letās be real: Even with stellar ROR numbersā¦
- āļø Youāll experience cold streaks EVERY month
- š Youāll see 0-20 runs
- šµ And yes, itāll be painful if you canāt emotionally or financially weather the storm
But guess what?
š„ Those cold streaks are ALWAYS followed by hot runs
š And if you stick it out, the math makes you whole
š° The grind wins in the long runāevery single time
š§ Final Takeaway
Professional sports betting is a math game. Itās not about avoiding lossesāitās about managing them. If youā¦
- Treat ROR like a casino does
- Stop chasing
- Bet like a robot
- Trust the edge and let it play out
ā¦youāll make more money than 96% of bettors out there.
So chill out, stop pressing in cold runs, and let the numbers do their job.
š Need proof? The full TSP Portfolio logs and performance data are here:
TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/
Good luck, degenerates. Youāve got thisāif you can just stay patient.