The following appeared as the morning commentary for TSP Live on Tuesday, September 2nd, 2025. It goes well with yesterday’s Go Fast and Win podcast episode, so I am adding it to the Education section because it will be great to reference in the future.
For the 79,814th time⌠do you see how this game works?
Hot streak âĄď¸ cold streak âĄď¸ hot streak âĄď¸ cold streak.
Itâs the eternal cycle of betting. If you could simply accept this pattern, then the next time a cold streak hits, instead of turning into an emotional mess and burning your bankroll, youâd know what to do: bet lighter, donât panic, and let the cold stretch become a chance to rest and reset.
Because eventually⌠the hot run always comes back.
đ How the Last Week Played Out
This past week was a textbook example of the cycle:
Wednesday: The turn day.
Thursday: A âspeed bumpâ day (as forecasted).
FridayâMonday: Healthy profits as the hot run took off.
On Thursday morning, I even wrote:
âPLEASE BE AWARE, YESTERDAY WAS A RATHER STRONG DAY AND WE TEND TO SEE IMMEDIATE REGRESSION AFTER SUCH A DAY. IT DOESNâT MEAN THE COLD RUN RETURNS, BUT THERE IS OFTEN A âSPEED BUMPâ DAY WHEN WE CATCH A TURN. SO DONâT BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE TODAY. IF YESTERDAY WAS A TURN, THERE WILL BE TIME TO GET AGGRESSIVE IN THE DAYS AHEAD.â
And sure enough, the cycle unfolded exactly that way. Was it luck? Magic? Nope. Itâs experience â seeing these patterns repeat thousands of times across three decades of sports betting.
đ§ The Lesson
Since last Decemberâs cold run (which has long since been erased with profits stacked on top), Iâve been hammering home one point:
Every hot run eventually cools into a cold run.
Every cold run eventually turns into a hot run.
Thatâs it. Thatâs how this game works.
If you can control yourself through the inevitable downswings, youâll always be around to enjoy the inevitable upswings. And when the board cools? Tighten up, pass here and there, and ride it out.
Because each cold run survived brings you one step closer to the next hot streak â and maybe even an epic run where youâre not just picking up +5 to +10 units⌠but +20 to +30 or more.
đ The Fun Part
How much fun was this past weekend? Absolutely a blast. But believe it or not, I wouldnât even call it an âepicâ one. Those happen multiple times every year, and theyâre the ones you remember.
But to get to those weekends, you must first survive the cold stretches. Thatâs the price of admission.
đĄ Final Word
This is the real secret:
If you can manage yourself, youâll stick around for years and build wealth.
If you canât manage yourself, your bankroll will be what the sportsbooks use to pay the clients who did manage themselves.
The choice is yours. Control, patience, discipline â thatâs the key.
Now letâs keep it rolling and have a great season ahead! đ
đď¸ P.S.
Iâll have a new Go Fast and Win podcast episode dropping today (link will be on Telegram, Twitter, and all major podcast platforms). Iâll be covering these hot/cold cycle strategies in more detail and sharing some personal theories you can put to work.
âWhen should I recalibrate my bankroll based on profits?â
The truth is, thereâs no perfect answer. You never know when the next cold run is coming, and recalibrating right before one can create serious emotional swings. And as Iâve said beforeâemotion is the #1 disease for bankrolls.
That said, here are two common methods I recommend:
1. Aggressive Approach
Recalibrate whenever you gain 20â30% (or 20â30 units, depending on how you track performance). At that point, take half the profits for yourself (or into a reserve account), and raise your bankroll with the other half.
Example:
Starting bankroll: $10,000
After a 20% gain: $12,000
Pull out $1,000, keep $11,000 as your bankroll
New 1% bet size = $110 per wager
For me, this would mean betting $110 on plus moneylines or betting to win $110 on negative moneylines (whether +3 (-110) or -180 on a straight moneyline)
This method lets you enjoy profits sooner while still growing your bankroll with calculated aggression.
2. Passive Approach
Recalibrate every January 1st. This aligns with the philosophy behind the âSlow and Steadyâ article.
It doesnât protect you from a cold run in January, but it allows profits to accumulate for an entire year before adjusting. This makes it much easier to ride out varianceâbecause the more profit youâve built, the easier it is to handle drawdowns.
By contrast, the aggressive method can cause you to recalibrate right before a regression, which often sparks frustration and poor emotional decisions for some bettors.
Final Thoughts
Both methods workâitâs about choosing the style that fits your risk tolerance and emotional control. Some bettors prefer to bank wins more frequently, while others let the full year play out before making adjustments. If you are unsure, I would suggest the passive approach for most gamblers.
Either way, the key is consistency and discipline.
Feel free to send in your questionsâand good luck this season!
The below commentary was first published on August 17th in a TSP Live alert. It has been updated for article format and posted to the TSP Live Education section for future reference.
đ The Grind Continues
I love what we do at The Sharp Plays. But one of the toughest challenges is getting gamblers to understand the realities of professional gambling. Every day, I battle against the myths that people bring with themâmisconceptions fueled by boiler room touts, sportsbooks showing big payouts/winners, movies/TV, and hype.
Many of you have been lead to believe that “professional gambler” means:
Winning almost every day, week and month.
Rarely experiencing losses, let alone extended losing streaks.
Living a fantasy lifestyle of easy money with very little time or effort required.
The truth? Thatâs far from reality…BUT there’s light at the end of the tunnel…and a great lifestyle for those who work toward it. Let’s discuss!
đĄ The Reality of Professional Gambling
Yes, you can live a great life from gamblingâI do. I have a lot of nice things, financial freedom, travel all the time (which is my passion), enjoy a schedule I set for myself every day, and I love it all. How did I get all this…GAMBLING! My income doesnât come from TSP, it comes from my professional betting. HOWEVER, it wasnât overnight success.
Started Gambling in 1991 (Middle School): My journey began in middle school, where I operated small $0.50 and $1 pools for my friends and bet on football parlay cards my family would get from work. My stakes were modestâjust $1 or $2âbut I was hooked on the idea of easy money, despite the harsh reality that there was none to be found. It took me years to realize that truth, after a long string of losses.
Joined English Sports Betting (1993): In 1993, I took the leap and signed up with English Sports Betting (ESB), which gave me access to a bookie. At this point, my action was limited to $5 parlays and $10 straight bets. I withdrew once, and I still have the check they sent me in my files. It was my first ever withdrawal from an offshore sportsbookâthough there werenât many after that! I had a few lucky runs, but ultimately, the losses piled up. My dream was to turn a $100-$200 bankroll into thousands, get a sweet car, and live the high school dream, but it didnât work out. Still, it set me on a path to a bigger opportunity.
Bookmaking & Offshore Gambling (Late 90s – 2000): By the late 90s, I was performing better than I had at the start, though I still wasnât seeing long-term profits. After 6-9 years in, I was still a “lifetime loser.” However, it was during this time that I got involved in the book side of offshore gambling. This opened my eyes to the realities of sports betting and, more importantly, how I could profit from both sides of the counter. It was here that I found my big break.
Real Consistency (2003 Onward): In 2003, I found true consistency after applying discipline and focusing on long-term results. Realize it took me 12 years just to get to this point from when I started. This shift was largely due to the mentorship I received from a gambling expert (my “gambling Yoda”) I met during my time on the book side of offshore gambling. He played a crucial role in helping me get to where I am today.
The Slow Build to Success: From there, my bankroll grew steadily and powerfully. While I wanted success to come quickly, the process was slow and methodical. Looking back on those early days, I can hardly believe where I am now. It’s been an incredible journey that I never thought would come to fruitionâbut it did. It just took time to play out. There were no shortcuts!
Professional sports gambling is about long-term compounding, not quick riches. Time, effort and fortitude combined with patience was the key for me.
Problem is, most gamblers only have patience for quick riches, not the long-term realities.
Just a 3% average gain per month will 8x your bankroll in 6 years.
This does not mean every month you must make 3%. It just means that at the end of every year you want to have a +36% bankroll gain (+36 units) which works out to an average of +3% (+3 units) per month. It could be every month makes you around 3% OR it could be 1 month you pickup an 80% gain (+80 units) and the other 11 months you lose a combined 44% or 44 units…you still made 36%/36 units that year…an average of +3% or +3 units per month for that year.
Start with $10,000 â after 6 years = $80,000.
Another 6 years = $640,000.
Another 6 years = $5,120,000.
Thatâs an 18-year journey from $10,000 to $5.12M. Slow? Yes. Worth it? Absolutely.
Now, TSP Live has never averaged worse than +5% per month. That level turns $10,000 into:
$168,000 in 6 years.
$5.12M in just over 13 years
Cuts roughly 5 years off the time horizon…but still now “overnight” or next year.
đ˘ Be the tortoise, not the hare.
Problem is every gambler wants to be the hare…$10,000 bankroll today and they want a $500,000 bankroll by the end of the year. Bettors want to go from dropping $100/unit to $5,000/unit overnight. I was one of them myself, there’s no shame in it. It’s just important to recognize the foolishness of the idea so that you can be ready to get that $500,000 in a way supported by math and reality. The foolishness isn’t all your fault because you are sold that such growth can be possible. Who sells you on this idea? Unsavory touts trying to get you to pay them fees to help you on the journey to fast money…while having no transparency and in most cases…honesty. The other people selling you on the easy money idea…the sportsbooks themselves. Yet, the dream is so good you don’t care who is selling it to you, you want to believe it…and you do. You could get out of the job you hate, have a great house, car, women, money, freedom…and all doing something you love! Who would want to let that dream go?!?! Oh and God forbid anyone try to convince you that professional gambling doesn’t work this way. You will fight to the death to keep your dream…holding on to hope…even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
“Hope is the worst of evils, for it prolongs the torment of man.” â Friedrich Nietzsche
đŤ The Trap of Chasing Shortcuts
Gamblers often sabotage themselves by:
Quitting when growth feels âtoo slow.â
Nobody wants to wait 12-13 years to turn $10,000 into $5.12M…they WANT IT TOMORROW!!!!
Obsessing over bad days, weeks and months.
You have to realize that in a journey of 12-13 years…a bad day or bad week is just a drop in the bucket. There’s going to be HUNDREDS of them! Deal with it and move on. Obsessing over bad days, weeks, months or runs is a bankroll eating infection that will cause you to bet emotionally and then… bye-bye bankroll!
Trying to avoid losses instead of accepting them as part of the grind.
Instead of just accepting the bad days, people try to figure out ways to avoid them. The biggest idea I always hear is when the TSP Index is turning down, indicating public success and sharp underperformance, people get the idea of “following the public”. It doesn’t work. How about just keep grinding through and the next hot streak will be here to erase it all. You don’t have to think so hard. People overthink the process and try to find ways to strategize not losing. It often puts them in analysis paralysis.
THE MATH ABOVE INCLUDES RIDING EVERY LOSING STREAK AND COLD RUN ALONG THE WAY. You don’t need to outthink the TSP method, strategy and systems. The performance has all the cold runs and losses baked into the numbers. So, sit back and just ride! Keep emotion and expectations out of it! Expectations just set you up for disappointment…and that’s another doorway to allow emotion to overwhelm your betting.
Reality check: Profits donât arrive in the same months every year. Some years, February is hot. Other years, itâs ice cold. If you try to time it, youâll always miss. This is something I try to emphasize every year as people decide to pass on this or that month because “last year it sucked”. People see last December (2024) as ice cold…and it was…but the previous December (2023)…was one of the best months of TSP content EVER!!!! You just never know, so don’t try to know…just GRIND!
The only strategy that consistently works: âĄď¸ Place your bets daily. âĄď¸ Accept wins and losses without emotion. âĄď¸ Keep grinding.
đ What It Looks Like in Practice
At TSP Live in 2025:
We are up +63 units year-to-date (TSP Portfolio & Hermes A.I.).
Thatâs an average of +7.88% per month.
On pace for +94.6% return this year.
Great numbers right?!?! Well, they include losing months in January and February, a losing August (so far), but some epic wins in the mix. Imagine if you quit after last December or this January or February?!? You would have missed a hell of a run. Those who just rode the good and the bad…they are having a great year!
Even with inevitable losing streaks, the grind always delivers long-term growth. If it didnât, TSP wouldnât still be here since 2011.
đ Final Word: Be the Tortoise đ˘
Forget the fantasy sold by unsavory touts and sportsbooks. Professional gambling isnât about games of the year, miracle jackpot parlays, or easy money.
Itâs about:
Steady discipline.
Compounding returns.
Grinding through the tough days, weeks and months.
ZERO EMOTION!
Stay consistent, stay patient, and remember this age old wisdom:
Everyone loves the big months where we rake in +10%, +15%, even +25% or more, but the truth isâmost months are a grind.
Letâs do some quick math: đ If you averaged just +3% per month, you’d see a +36% bankroll return per year. To put that in perspective, that kind of ROI would make your retirement account blush.
So I asked ChatGPT:
âWhat percentage of mutual funds earn 36% annually?â ChatGPT replied: âVirtually 0%. Sustaining 36% annually over multiple years is nearly unheard of due to market volatility and reversion to the mean.â
Thatâs rightâalmost no mutual fund hits those kinds of returns consistently. Yet sports betting done right can achieve this and more.
đ¸ Compounding Is the Secret Weapon
Using the classic Rule of 72, a 36% return means youâd double your bankroll in just over 2 years. And in 6 years, youâd 8x it. Thatâs the kind of exponential growth normally reserved for venture capital or high-risk stock plays.
And yet, with TSP content, this isn’t a fantasy. đ Weâve never had a year with less than a 60-unit gainâequivalent to a 60% bankroll return.
đ The False Dream vs. The Real Path
Too many new bettors start with a $1,000 or $10,000 bankroll, expecting to quit their jobs and turn it into $200,000 in 12 months. Is it possible? Technically, yes… but youâd need lottery-level luck.
đ˛ Parlays and high-risk plays might make it happen, but the real path to financial freedom through betting is consistent, compounding profit.
Letâs say you average just +3 units per month. Over time, that grows your bankroll. Once you reach $200K, now 3% a month = $6,000/month = $72,000/year â there’s your goal…for now…until you up that to the next stage.
The key? Patience.
đ¤ My Journey: From $5 Bets to $80,000 Plays
I say this often because it matters. I started betting in high school in the mid-90s. My average bet? $5. A $50 wager was massive.
Over time, I grew. Slowly. I remember literally praying each week at church to gain the skill to make $50,000 a year betting. I promised God that if He could help me get over the hump, I would put in the work. I did my best to hold up my end of the bargainâand if my life is any indication, God certainly kept His.
đĽ In 2006, after 13 years of grinding, failures, resets, resilience, I made my biggest single wager: $80,000 on the Buffalo Bills +12 vs. Colts (11/12/2006) Final: Colts 17 â Bills 16. The Bills covered wire-to-wire. It was a turning pointâand the result of years of patience, discipline, and resilience. I sat back that night and thought back to those early days of $5 bets…and couldn’t help but get a little emotional over what I achieved. Then I enjoyed a nice vacation!
đ You Can Do This Too
I’m nobody special. I just did the work.
â I studied. â I failedâmany times. â I stayed patient. â I played the long game.
Thatâs how you turn sports betting into a profession and a compounding asset. Even +3% monthly is a monster returnâand if you can do better, youâre printing money.
đ Final Word: Keep Grinding
Every day you stay disciplined, youâre getting closer to your goals. Whether you’re up +3% or +30%, remember: slow growth is still growth.
Stick to the grind. Respect the numbers. And letâs keep building, one unit at a time. đŞđ
Sustain elite performance, cover rising costs, and avoid an increase in 2026.
If Winning Were Easy…
…everyone would do it. …Iâd just pay $999/month to someone else and chill. But no such service exists. Thatâs why The Sharp Plays was built, why I am here â and why youâre here reading this.
Hermes Elite A.I. was launched January 13th, and hereâs how itâs done:
đ +55.35 units profit across 482 wagers
đ° +10.60% Return on Risk (“ROR”) for all plays
đĽ +22.18% ROR for plays with scores ⼠40
đĽ TSP Portfolio in 2025? +22.17% bankroll gain, +9.72% ROR â and thatâs considered a “slow year”!
None of this is fluff. These are logged and documented results for the core content of TSP Live…every play delivered to you in TSP Live!
đ Over 95% of my income comes from my personal wagering & investments â not TSP. Your subscription covers the cost of winning, not my lifestyle.
đľ New Pricing (Effective August 28th, 2025)
TSP Live Monthly (Calendar Month): $249.99 ($8.06/day)
TSP Live Football Season (6 months): $1,249.99 (save ~$250 â one month free)
TSP Live Annual (12 months): $2,499.99 (save ~$500 â two months free)
TSP Live 7-Day Pass: $59.99 (up from $54.99 â $8.57/day)
For comparison, a 12 count of grilled nuggets at Chick-Fil-A is $8.99. TSP Live is cheaper ($8.06 per day), a lot more fun, and puts money INTO your pocket after enjoying it!
đ How the New Prices Were Decided
đ First, I base pricing on:
Real operating costs
Expected subscriber count
Long-term investment and reinvestment expectations
Market prices…except 98% of the rest of the market loses you money (see Deadspin article below)
And yes, a reasonable profit (because otherwise, whatâs the point of this level of effort?)
Second, I did a deep dive into performance and inflation dataâassisted a ChatGPT (linked here & above).
In 2019, TSP paid content cost $200/month…and was nowhere near as comprehensive as it is today.
Adjusted for inflation, that would be $247/month in today’s dollars.
ChatGPTâs analysis, based on performance, found a fair market value for TSP Live of $499/month.
The goal is not to pick pockets, but elite performance demands real, ongoing investment. It takes serious resources to operate at this levelâa level that consistently outperforms 99.99% of sports services/handicappers and 99% of professional bettors alike. Thatâs not hypeâitâs backed by math and actual performance data.
Show me someone who outperforms The Sharp Plays, documents it publicly for full transparency, continually evolves with the latest tech, and has done it for 15 years straight.Iâll wait. đ
đ Who Is TSP Live For?
Anytime I have ever been asked, my response has been that TSP Live is best suited for bettors wagering $250+ per unit. Of course, even $50/unit bettors can turn a good profit given TSP Live’s strong and consistent performance, but optimal value comes at the $250/unit mark.
I advise using a conservative average of +3 units/month for profit projection/analysis, even though:
đ The 15-year TSP history has never seen a year average less than +5.0 units/month.
đ 2024 had the lowest recent performance but still delivered +6.25 units/month.
đ 2025 is on pace for +11.0 units/month (YTD) on Hermes A.I. & TSP Portfolio.
Using a +3 unit per month average ensures your ROI expectations are well grounded so that anything above 3 units is pure gravy…and that’s where we expect to be!
At $250/unit, your breakeven moves from 0.72 units/month to 1 unit/month with the new price. Thatâs 12 units/year of profit needed to break even…TSP Portfolio & Hermes average +11.0 units/MONTH Even the conservative +3 units/month = +36 units/year = already +24 units above break-even!
Example: In 2024, a year without Hermes, TSP Portfolio gained +75 units. Subtracting the new $249/month fee (~1 unit/month = 12 units/year) = +63 unit profit AFTER fees for 2024…based on 2025 pricing.
đ The Sharp Plays does the work. You collect the checks. Think of The Sharp Plays as your sports betting agent. Yes, TSP gets a cut of your profits, but where would those profits be without The Sharp Plays content?
đľď¸ââď¸ TSP Insiders Selections: Pricing and Purpose
TSP Insiders is a premium add-on, designed for advanced bettors who want even more firepower. Yes, by strong demand over the past few months, and the response for Wolf’s Wimbledon package, ALL Group Moves from TSP Insiders (0-20+ per month) will be available for the TSP audience starting August 1st.
A more aggressive price increase for TSP Insiders selections helps offset costs and allows for a smaller increase in the TSP Live subscription price. It also means Wolf & Tony better BRING IT!
New TSP Insiders (Wolf & Tony) Price: $34.99 per selection (was $25.00) – TSP Insiders can set their own price, but Wolf and Tony have agreed to this price for 2025 and 2026…other TSP Insiders may set different prices and then the choice is yours whether you want to experience their content.
Why? ChatGPTâs fair value range for Wolf & Tony was $50â$100 per pick given the level of performance (again, click here for the full analysis) they deliver. The industry average is around $30 per pickâand letâs be honest, most of the industry loses. TSP Insiders consistently deliver Top 1% performance, and even with the above price increase, remain priced well below fair market value ($50â$100) and priced just above the averageâdespite performing exponentially above the average handicapper.
TSP Insiders Adopts Performance-Based Pricing – TSP Insiders will now feature performance-based pricing. The standard cost per pick is $34.99, but if an Insider is running cold, the price could drop as low as $2.99. – This model not only gives you better value during downturns, but also motivates each Insider to maintain top-tier performanceâbecause higher success means maintaining the premium price point.
IMPORTANT NOTE: You donât need TSP Insiders selections to mirror TSP Live performance.
Here’s why…
TSP Insiders selections, provided outside TSP Live (either free or paid), that have Hermes A.I. scores above 30 are tracked separately (see Hermes Records) from the Hermes A.I. performance for releases WITHIN TSP Live.
TSP Portfolio will not use Insiders plays, so no edge is missed by skipping them.
If TSP Insiders selections arenât in your budget right now, no worriesâyou wonât miss anything essential for mirroring TSP Live performance. Youâre just passing on a few extra winners. Keep grinding, stay disciplined, and in time your bankroll will grow to make adding them an easy decision.
đ§ NEW: Profitability Calculator
Curious if your subscription is worth it? Try The Sharp Plays new Net Profit Calculator:
đ˘ Input:
Monthly subscription cost plus any extra monthly costs you want included for analysis
Avg. projected monthly unit profit (3 is highly conservative, see note below)
Your per unit wager
đ Output: Your net gambling profit per month after fees.
đ Use +3 units/month profit as your baseline. The Sharp Plays has never done worse than an average of 5 units/month in any year over the last 15 years that TSP content has existed. So, if the math works at 3 units/month for you, everything above is a bonus!
đ§ Final Thoughts
Letâs be honestâprice hikes arenât fun. But The Sharp Plays isnât a hobby. This is a real business, competing head-to-head with billion-dollar sportsbooks armed with elite tech and near endless resources.
To stay in the Top 1% of professional bettors, year after year, takes more than just sharp instincts. It requires real financial backingâto maintain our edge, stay ahead of evolving technology, and continually grow our source and intel network.
If The Sharp Plays ran like most of the industry, itâd be cheapâbecause all weâd need is a coin to flip…and then we would WOW you with fancy marketing, current hot run highlights and shiny other things…just not actual long-term and profitable performance.
Hereâs what you get at The Sharp Plays that most services CAN’T deliver:
âď¸ Industry-leading performance with a Top 1% ROIâ15 years running! âď¸ 30+ years of high-level experience in sports gambling âď¸ Strategic discipline built on long-term success âď¸ Constant innovation, not stagnant systems âď¸ World-class analytics, driven by Hermes Elite A.I.âthe best-performing A.I. in sports betting âď¸ No hype or hard selling, just transparent performance you can audit yourself each day…then decide âď¸ A community that makes it funâsharing the sweat, celebrating the wins, and riding the highs and lows together
đ¤ Thank You (Can’t Repeat This Enough)
Your continued support makes all this possible. Without it, The Sharp Plays wouldnât exist â at least not in the form you see today.
Thank you for taking the time to review the above. Myself and the rest of the TSP crew are fired up for the football season ahead and look forward to having you as part of the TSP Armyâas we get back to work and exact revenge after one of the most public football seasons in the last 20 years!
Good luck to us, and letâs cash some tickets! đŞ đĽ Remember, Daddy needs the G700! âď¸ đ
If June taught you anything heading into football season, let it be this: đ Patience is your fucking edge against the book.
June wasnât easy. It wasnât smooth. We had to grind. Pass. Stay disciplined. But those who stuck it out with The Sharp Plays were rewarded:
đ TSP Portfolio: +3.09%
đ¤ Hermes Elite A.I.: +6.37%
đĽ Combined: +9.46%
This is what real, professional sports betting looks like. Not constant highs. Not fantasyland. Itâs about managing the lows like a savage, staying in the game, and collecting when the heat rolls back around.
âď¸ Cold Streaks Are the Entry Fee for Being Elite
Letâs rewind. From late November 2024 through February 2025, TSP Portfolio took a dive.
đ In 2024, from a +94% or +94 unit high in mid-November to +75% or +75 units by year-end
đ Then another -10.4% in JanâFeb 2025
Thatâs when the weak tapped out. Thatâs when the aspiring âprosâ started whining. Thatâs when people said, âMaybe this isnât for me.â
But Iâve been doing this 30+ years. I knew what was coming.
đ¤ď¸ Then the Sun Came Out
From March to now?
đ TSP Portfolio +33.68% or +33.68 units đ All losses since late November 2024 have been erased AND… đŻ +4.68% or +4.68 units in profit on top…AND THAT’S JUST TSP PORTFOLIO đ¤ Hermes 2025 YTD: Additional +54.60% or +54.60 units on top of it all!
But this piece isnât about Hermes. This is about patience. This is about TSP Portfolio, on its own, delivering like a savageâif you just gave it time.
Ohâand weâre now just 1.49 units away from the lifetime all-time high profit mark in TSP Portfolio (achieved earlier this month). Thatâs right. Not just the 2025 high… all-time.
And guess what? I called this in late December:
âJust be patient. I donât know how or when, but these losses will come back to us… with profit on top. Some will quit before that happens, but that’s sad because it’ll happen!â
đ˘ Thatâs exactly what happened.
đś This Game Ainât for Babies
This isnât a fairytale. This is gambling at the highest level.
You wanna call yourself a professional sports bettor? You better learn how to handle the ice-cold months without melting.
If everyone could win, Iâd just pay someone else $999/month and go sip cocktails at 11 a.m. like many veteran TSP Live subscribers! But they canât. So I do this shit myselfâand invite you to the party.
đ§ Remember the Freeze, Celebrate the Fire
In the middle of the cold streak, howâd you feel?
Frustrated? Ready to quit? Now zoom out and look where we are. How do you feel today looking at TSP Portfolio performance, Hermes Elite A.I. performance (selections, Value Plays, content, etc.)?!?!?!?!?!?!
If you blew your bankroll back in December, that was your choice. If you stayed patient, stayed disciplined, youâre FAR richer todayâand not just in units.
You earned wisdom. You earned experience. You earned your fucking stripes!
đŹ Haters love to point to the 2019 Robin Hood Club. You know what? So do I.
To them, it was a failure. To me? It was one of the greatest comeback stories in TSP history.
Those who stuck through that 19-unit drawdownâthe withering coldâdidnât just survive⌠they thrived. Theyâre now among the best-performing TSP clients of all timeâearning back 30, 40, even 50+ times what they lost.
Thatâs what this game is. Not fairy tale âeasy wins.â Itâs weathering storms until the sun shows upâand then knowing exactly what to do when it does.
đŻ Final Word: Pros Think Long-Term
Short-term? This shit can feel chaotic. But long-term? Itâs math. Itâs method. Itâs margins. We GRIND!
đ 15 years of consistent, transparent, top-tier performance đŻ Top 1% among sharp bettorsânot just any bettors, the best
You want to be elite? Then act like it when shit gets tough.
Itâs not a matter of if the profits come. Itâs a matter of when.
So next time itâs cold⌠âď¸ Bundle up, shut the fuck up, and ride it out. Because the heat always comes back.
Let The Sharp Plays Cook! Wolf, Tony, TSP, Hermes Elite A.I.
Every year from May through August, The Sharp Plays undergoes core operational upgrades to prepare for the football season. Some updates were brainstormed as far back as September and fine-tuned over time. Others are inspired on the fly as this process goes along. Below is a detailed look at key changesâwith full transparency.
đ Initial Operational Changes
â denotes upgrades or changes that have completed
1. Telegram Channel Consolidation â
TSP Insiders Channel merged into TSP War Room (May 29th)
TSP Twitter/X Clone Channel also merged (June 1st)
All content now centralized via TSP War Room Telegram Channel
TSP Live Radar, KBC Consensus, and Book Needs tables are now inside the Hermes Elite A.I. table. You can see these on the table now.
However, these tools are football-specific and will appear “OFFLINE” until late August
3. Podcast Relaunch
Go Fast and Win podcast returns August through April
Updates to the website and new episodes will launch in August 2025
4. Streamlined TSP Live Alerts â
Alerts now focus strictly on high-level (30+) Hermes A.I. content, TSP Portfolio, and Degenerates Corner
Lower-tier content (like TSP Insider leans and low/mid-level intel not covered in the Degenerates Corner) now moves to Telegram/Twitter.
On days with a lot of high-tier content, more of the lower-tier content will shift to Telegram to keep TSP Live alerts focused and uncluttered. Conversely, on slower days with no high-tier plays/angles, more lower-tier content will be delivered exclusively to TSP Live subscribers…and Telegram will be quieter.
5. General Website Maintenance
Seasonal housekeeping updates to refresh outdated or retired content across all TSP platforms/websites. I apologize for any down-time or pages/features being offline for maintenance from time to time.
6. Hermes Upgrade to Version 2.0 (currently running Version 1.6) â
Hermes is scheduled for a major upgrade in July. While the system will remain online throughout the process, there may be brief periods of downtimeâpotentially a few hours at a timeâas the new version is built in the background.
This upgrade will transition Hermes from version 1.6 to version 2.0. The new version will be trained using all the data, analysis, and tracking collected to date, enabling improved performance and smarter decision-making going forward.
7. Full Access to TSP Insiders (NEW – 6/19/25)
You asked, we listened: Many of you want full access to all TSP Insider plays (Wolf, Tony, etc.) â and you want the choice to buy what you want, when you want it.
𧊠The challenge:
Wolf has direct, long-time clients (20+ years) on a “pay after you win” model.
To honor those relationships, he won’t charge them for a play he gives free to TSP.
Some Insider picks come just 30 minutes before game time â tough to post in time for purchase.
đĄ What weâre exploring:
Dynamic pricing â cold streak? Picks may go for $5. Hot streak? Higher prices reflect demand.
Everyone gets access. You control what to buy, with pricing that adjusts to performance.
Motivates Insiders to stay sharp and rewards loyal followers.
Pay After You Win option, but has to have a tweak due to potential collection issues.
đŤ No monthly subscriptions:
Wolf might only release 2â3 bets a month…other months 15-20.
Charging a set monthly fee is fine in high volume months, but not in low volume months â especially if the picks lose.
đ Coming for football season:
A new solution is in the works for full access to all Insider plays…every day and every play.
Until then, enjoy free Group Moves and select paid plays via TSP.Live.
While the current list of updates isnât long, more upgrades and improvements will roll out in the coming weeks. Behind the scenes, dozens of backend and operational enhancementsâlike clerical adjustments and infrastructure tweaksâare already underway to keep everything optimized. As new, noticeable changes go live, Iâll add them to the numbered list above, mark them with “(NEW – Date Posted)”, and post an alert in the TSP War Room Telegram Channelwith a link to this page so you can easily stay up to date.
â ď¸ About Feedback
Feedback is welcome, but understand this:
If your feedback is just about making your experience better and not TSP overall, it wonât be prioritized.
Example: Some people complain when I get âverboseâ on Telegramâmeaning a few extra messages to the channel on certain days. Reality? Most days have 5â7 alerts. Occasionally, sure, it might hit 10+.
Sometimes Iâm bored, sometimes Iâm having fun with the TSP audience. Such instances might mean an extra 1â3 messages. Itâs rare. If thatâs too much for you, unsubscribeâbut letâs be real, you wonât.
You may not love how I run things. But nobody outperforms The Sharp Playsâand 15 years of results prove it.
The numbers. Do. Not. Lie.
So if this level of performance isn’t worth putting up with a few extra alerts or my attempt at comedy/fun here and there, thatâs on you.
If you leave to prove a pointâgo ahead. Youâre just sabotaging your own betting performance.
Me? Iâll be fine. So will the rest of the TSP Army who aren’t wet noodles.
đľ Pricing Updates (TSP Live & TSP Insiders)
Pricing…the topic nobody likes. It’s long, but it’s because I want to be transparent about the thought process and analysis given the sensitivity of this topic. So, rather just give you TSP’s biased view, I asked ChatGPT to evaluate the fair pricing based on actual performance. The following, except the parts where you see “TSP:” is generated 100% from the ChatGPT analysis of the queries presented.
ChatGPT Query:
TSP:“What is the fair monthly cost for a sports handicapping service called TSP Live that offers two products that subscribers can access and which carry the stated performance:
TSP Portfolio: +15.70% lifetime ROI on risk (1770+ wagers), 12.08% ROI for 2025 (301 wagers)
Hermes Elite A.I.: +48.23% bankroll gain, 11.07% lifetime ROI on risk, +23.36% on 40+ scores, 450 wagers and all in 2025″
đ Performance Recap (2025 Data)
TSP Portfolio: 301 wagers, 12.08% ROI = $3,637 profit at $100/unit
Hermes Elite A.I.: 450 wagers, 11.07% ROI = $4,982 profit at $100/unit
Combined Expected Value = $8,619 profit in under 5 months for $100 bettors, also supported by long-term data beyond 2025.
đ Market Comparison
Service
Price
Notes
Dr. Bob
$599/month
NFL & NCAA football/basketball only, no AI, lower ROI.
Don Best
$499/month
Odds feed, no selections
Spank Odds
$699/month
Odds feed, no selections
TSP Live
???
All major US & International Sports, AI-driven, elite ROI
TSP: I think Dr. Bob is one of the few honest people in this business and I respect him for that because it is so rare. His mention above should not be somehow seen as derogatory toward him or his pricing. If I wanted to be derogatory, there are countless others I could add to ChatGPT’s table.
âď¸ Fair Monthly Price Recommendations
Plan Type
Price Range
Rationale
Standard Monthly
$399â$599/month
Justified by ROI and betting volume
đ ChatGPT Conclusion
Youâre delivering: Multi-year consistency Multiple high-yield systems A professional A.I. tool rivaling (and beating) industry software [TSP: Thanks ChatGPT…I appreciate it!] A content stream that aligns with professional-level sports intelligence
â $499/month is the sweet spot â elite performance at a fraction of its delivered financial value.
đ TSP Insiders Pricing Analysis
ChatGPT Query:
TSP: Question 1: “I’m curious, what qualifies someone to be in the Top 1% of professional sports bettors worldwide?”
Question 2: “Can you create a breakdown of standing based on ROI for sports bettors?”
TSP SIDE NOTE: ChatGPT uses âROIâ in the same way as âReturn on Risk,â which is important to understand. A 10% ROI does not mean a 10-unit or 10% bankroll gainâit can actually represent a much larger return. For example, if you place 500 bets at $1,000 each, thatâs $500,000 in total risk. With a 10% ROI (a.k.a. Return on Risk), youâd earn $50,000 in profit. Assuming your unit size is $1,000, this suggests a $100,000 bankroll, and a 10% ROI would equate to a 50% gain on your bankroll ($50,000)ânot just 10%.
ChatGPT Response (Question 1): These bettors are often tracking at 55%+ win rates on standard -110 lines over years of dataâtranslating to +3% to +7% ROI or more, which is exceptional in this space.
ChatGPT Response (Question 2):
đ Sports Bettor ROI Tiers (Long-Term Performance)
TSP: Which tier are youâor perhaps “were” you?
Tier
ROI Range
Performance Summary
Typical Traits
đ Top 1% â Elite Pro
+5% or more
Extremely rare. Beating the market efficiently over time. Likely using modeling, market access, syndicate intel, or automation.
Strong closing line value, disciplined bankroll use, low volume/high accuracy. Syndicate or high-stakes pro.
đź Top 5% â Sharp Pro
+2% to +5%
Long-term profitable, typically full-time or semi-pro. Likely betting high volume with disciplined process.
Uses data, betting tools, possibly sells picks or runs a service. May avoid popular markets.
đ Top 10% â Skilled Bettor
+1% to +2%
Profitable after juice, beats market inconsistently but has edge. Could become pro with scaling.
Good discipline, some closing line value, maybe focused on niche markets. Often supplementing income.
đ Top 25% â Breakeven or Slight Edge
0% to +1%
Could beat the market, but profits are minimal or eaten by vig. Often one good tweak away from sharp success.
Casual sharp, good intuition but lacks a full edge or consistency.
đ The Middle â Losing, But Close
-1% to 0%
Majority of active bettors fall here. Losing slowly over timeâoften due to small leaks or poor market selection.
Lacks discipline, chases bets, bets popular games or odds.
𧨠Bottom 50% â Rec Bettors
-1% to -10%
Betting for entertainment, not profit. Often loses to juice or overbets favorites, parlays, or props.
Losing rapidly. Likely chasing losses or has no betting framework.
No bankroll strategy, no tracking, often addicted to the rush.
â ď¸ ChatGPT Notes:
These ROI figures assume standard -110 markets or their EV equivalents.
ROI should always be judged in the context of volume. A +10% ROI on 20 bets is meaningless; +2% ROI on 3,000 bets is elite.
Even Top 1% bettors may end the month negativeâvariance is real.
TSP: I saved the full chat with ChatGPT, and I swear on everything I hold dearâit was ChatGPT that added the third bullet point about even bettors in the Top 1% experiencing negative months. Many of you are laughing because it’s something I say constantly in that I always try to get bettors to understand: no matter how skilled you are, no one avoids losing streaksâwhether itâs a rough day, a tough week, or even a down month. Itâs just part of the game. Not accepting “betting reality” as I refer to it will only be a detriment to your success!
TSP:Wolf & Tony have a +9.9% ROI over 231 wagers, TSP Portfolio holds a +15.7% ROI over 1776 wagers, Hermes A.I. holds a +11.27% ROI over 453 wagers.Yes, ELITE Pro – Top 1%!
ChatGPT Query:
TSP: “If two professionals bettors combine for a +9.9% ROI over 231 wagers for the last 9 months and sell their selections to clients, what would be a fair price per selection given this level of performance?”
ChatGPT Response: A combined +9.9% ROI absolutely qualifies as Top 1% performance.
If that ROI is sustained over hundreds of wagers, it reflects sharp modeling, disciplined execution, and consistent valueâwhether it’s from one individual or a team.
đ° Per-Selection Fair Pricing
Tier
Quality
Price Per Pick
Low
Unverified, weak ROI
$5â$15
Mid
2â4% ROI
$15â$25
High
5%+ ROI, verified
$30â$50
Elite
9.9% ROI (TSP Insiders)
$50â$100
~~~ END OF CHATGPT ANALYSIS ~~~
TSP: Everything below is now The Sharp Plays text and content, ChatGPT was allowed to go on break at this point. It did a great job!
đŹ So, What Will Pricing Be for 2025â26?
Honestly? I donât know yet. But hereâs where weâve beenâand where we are now:
Current: TSP Live $179.99/month – TSP Insiders $15-$25/selection
2019: $200/month â for just 8 picks per month
2020: Dropped to $149.99 to entice people to test a monthly subscription w/daily content
2022: Increased to $159.99
2024: Increased to $179.99
Now, six years later, TSP Live still costs less than it did in 2019, even though the content, tools, techology and performance have grown exponentially.
đŻ Striking the Right Balance
My price goal remains simple:
Keep TSP Live affordable for smaller bettors, while supporting the infrastructure, team, and ongoing expansion and innovation that make this entire operation possibleâAND SUCCESSFUL!
Yes, I agree with ChatGPT that TSP Live could easily justify a $499/month price tag based on it’s elite ROI and value…logged over the last 14 years of content!
Yes, Wolf & Tony could realistically charge $50-100 per selection given their elite performance.
But donât panicânobodyâs pushing pricing to those levels in 2025. I can’t make any guarantees though if we get Venezuelan inflation or devalue the dollar.
This breakdown provides an unbiased, third-party assessment of the service’s valueâpowered by ChatGPT and grounded in something I trust completely: math. There’s no emotion, no spinâjust a logical analysis based on market benchmarks and actual performance results.
âď¸ How TSP Insiders Helps TSP Live Pricing Stay Below Fair Value
I understand some don’t care for the TSP Insiders model because it’s âanother purchaseâ on top of the TSP Live subscription. But hereâs the reality:
Those additional selections, provided by independent TSP Insiders, are entirely optionalâand theyâre a key reason why the TSP Live monthly subscription remains affordable. So far, there havenât been many paid TSP Insiders playsâaveraging just 3 per monthâwhile nearly five times that number have been provided for free. When selections are offered for free, theyâre not truly freeâTSP Insiders are compensated directly by The Sharp Plays. These Insiders work hard behind the scenes and deserve to be rewarded for helping us all grow our wealth.
Also, TSP Insiders paid selections are no longer a part of TSP Portfolio and they ARE NOT tracked in the TSP Live Hermes A.I. performance numbers. There’s a separate tracking for Hermes A.I. performance for TSP Insiders (TheSharpPlays.com). So, you lose nothing by not participating in them if you follow Hermes and/or Portfolio in TSP Live.
Yes, the volume of paid releases will increase going forward, but thatâs driven by customer demand for more access to TSP Insiders’ Group Moves, given the performance, not based on pushing more sales.
TSP Insiders sales allow higher-stakes bettors to contribute more by purchasing individual TSP Insiders selections, without forcing that cost on everyone. Itâs a flexible system that benefits all sidesâand the additional TSP Insiders revenue keeps access to the TSP Live subscription open to more bettors’ budgets.
đ Final Word (on Price)
Youâve seen how pricing has changedâslowly and fairlyâover six years. Every step has been based on real growth, added content, and increased performance.
Hermes A.I. is by far the most ambitiousâand most expensiveâproject Iâve ever taken on for TSP. Like most large-scale ventures, itâs operating with carried debt due to the lack of revenue generation from Hermes A.I. during the research and development phases (2022-2025), and it has significantly increased monthly technical costs. That said, I think we can agree the early performance proves the investment was a worthwhile gamble. When prices are raised, itâs never about picking anyoneâs pocketâitâs about fueling growth and expanding the value of the content.
Iâll share more pricing details in the weeks ahead as I explore ideas and work out budgets. But rest assured:
Iâm not looking to blindside youâjust build something sustainable and scalable for everyone.
đ Closing Thoughts
Yes, this article was longâbut it needed to be. My goal is to keep you informed, educated, and prepared, especially on sensitive topics like pricing, where I strive for 100% transparency.
Thank you for being a loyal part of the TSP Army.
The Sharp Plays wonât win every day, week, or monthâbut over the long haul, the numbers donât lie. During a cold stretch, it might not feel that way, but over time, the results speak for themselves. Go aheadâlook around. You wonât find another platform with 15 years of consistent, high-level performance.
Even ChatGPT labels TSPâs track record as “Elite Pro” levelâTop 1% territory.đ I donât flex often, but when it comes to this kind of sustained success for The Sharp Plays, Iâll gladly make an exception.
Hereâs to keeping it rolling in 2025 and beyond.
Posted this as an intro to a TSP Live alert on Friday and it got solid reviews, so I am adding it to the education section on TSP.Live for future reference…
đŻ The Hardest Part of Professional Gambling
The hardest part of this journey is not teaching people how to win â it’s getting them not to quit. When gambling stops feeling like easy money, so many bettors just vanish.
Over the past week, Iâve been diving deep into lessons from March, April, and May to show what true professional gambling looks like. Why? Because the real path to success goes against everything most people are taught. Breaking those bad habits and misconceptions is the toughest challenge. But if I can do that with you, youâll evolve into an exceptional professional bettor…with a healthy income!
đ The Dream vs. The Reality đŞ
The Dream: According to the so-called experts on Twitter/X, Instagram, and TikTok, gambling is easy money. They promise constant best bets, daily locks, and effortless wealth. You’re urged to buy multiple picks at $29.99 each per day or sign up for a $399 or $599/month package â all sold by people who havenât posted a winning year in their lives.
Their credentials? Maybe a handicapping contest win from 2007 or 2015. And forget about transparency. These services never maintain a public daily log AND daily compiled records like The Sharp Plays does â because doing so would expose their inconsistencies and lack of real performance!
Some services will let you pull previous selections, but they avoid compiling the actual results for one reason: they know most people wonât take the time to do it themselves. They pretend to be transparent by allowing access to all previous selections, but without compiled records (LONG-TERM RECORDS…not just current season or last 30 days) of all those previous selections, it’s meaningless. Theyâre counting on your laziness â that you wonât run the numbers, and youâll just assume their performance is solid because the past plays are “available.”
Letâs be clear: transparency means nothing without accountability.
If a service dazzles you with flash but wonât show you detailed long-term records â meaning performance across past seasons and years, not just a cherry-picked month or a single season â AND daily logs of ALL their action that you can independently track and audit, they have something to hide!!! A real pro doesnât hide the data. If someoneâs legit â like The Sharp Plays â they want you to see the records and the logs of EVERYTHING…every year and every wager! Thatâs the difference between a seller of dreams and a provider of results. I flex on my results â I put my dick on display each day because I want you to see how big it is, not just talk about it and stuff a sock in my pants hoping youâll trust me on what Iâm packing.
The Reality: When I explain how this business actually works â backed by 26 years of experience and 15 straight public winning years since launching the content in 2011 â people push back. It doesnât fit the fantasy they bought into years ago from the pick sellers and hype machines. They want easy money, fast cars, private jets, $100K bets, and guaranteed wins.
But real success? It isnât flashy. Itâs methodical. Itâs disciplined. Itâs long-term.
And yes â the fast cars, private jet access, and six-figure wagers? Those come too… but only with time. When I started out betting in high school I was betting $5 a game. Dropping $100 felt like putting a million on the line.
Today? I’m living the dream. Dedication, time, and relentless effort got me here â and it can get you here too.
It might sound over the top, but as I write this and think back to those days grinding for an edge in my bedroom at my parents’ house in high school, and then fast forward to where I am now… I get emotional. I never imagined I’d make it this far â but I did.
And here’s the truth: I’m nobody special. I didnât come from millions. I didnât have a head start. Every break I got, I earned…and I accepted failures and got back up. This isnât some overnight success story â itâs a story of persistence, belief, and refusing to quit.
đ Trust the Process
Hereâs what I hope youâve learned these past three months:
Trust the process. Even if itâs not flashy, itâs proven and time-tested â 26 years professionally and 15 years publicly… with winners every year.
My style may be unconventional â rollovers, parlays, passing multiple days at a time, and more â but it works. Let’s not fix whatâs not broken.
We will have losing days, weeks, and even months. But discipline and consistency lead to long-term profits.
â LOSERS QUIT!
After January and February, some quit. TSP Portfolio was down 15%/units for 2025, and Hermes A.I. wasnât on fire yet. So they gave up. Why? The money wasnât fast enough or easy enough.
But those who stayed now see Hermes A.I. climb to +48.11%/unit bankroll growth and TSP Portfolio reach +20.15%/unit bankroll growth in 2025. Combined? Aggressive followers have experienced +68.26%/unit bankroll growth in just five months as of today. Thatâs the reward for patience.
đ§ Are You Really Following the Plan?
If youâre thinking, âIâm not up +68.26%/units,â ask yourself:
Did you change your strategy?
Did you follow someone else?
Did you add your own bets not part of the system?
Thatâs likely why your results are different. Consistency is everything. Stick to the plan and the results will come. Audit your action with the daily logs at TheSharpPlays.com.
No matter how good the content does again for this year, I will undoubtedly hear from several people wondering how they managed to lose money during what will once again be a winning year for the TSP Portfolio and Hermes A.I.
They often say:
“I followed everything! How did I still lose?”
But the truth is, most didnât actually follow everythingâand thatâs where the disconnect begins. Letâs break down the common traps.
đ¨ Trap #1: Strategy Hopping
Many bettors canât resist the temptation to chase the hot hand. When the TSP Portfolio or Hermes A.I. has a rough week, they abandon ship and jump to another handicapper who happens to be hot. But timing is cruelâyou usually catch the cold streak of the new system right after abandoning the one about to turn hot.
â Important Reminder: The Sharp Plays content has been public since 2011â15 years without a losing year!
Still, gamblers expect perfection:
No losing months
No losing weeks
Not even a bad day
Thatâs just not how professional gambling works. And those unrealistic expectations lead to bad decision-making.
đ¸ Trap #2: Bankroll Mismanagement
Even those who stick with the right service often fall into another pit: poor bankroll management.
Hereâs the truth:
đ Bankroll management matters more than your win percentage.
You can have a sub-52% win rate and still be profitable if you know when to press and when to scale back. Most gamblers do the opposite:
Press during cold runs
Tighten during hot streaks
The result? Losses pile up even when the core strategy wins overall.
đŻ Trap #3: Betting Detours
Another mistake is straying from the plan. For example:
You follow the TSP PortfolioâŚ
But suddenly throw down on the Yankees because âthereâs no way they loseâ
Then toss in a UFC fighter bet for fun
You lose 3 units while TSP Live might have been up 3 unitsâyou turned a winning day into a breakeven or losing one. Those âjust this onceâ bets can snowball over time.
â Pro Tip: Keep a separate bankroll for recreational or âhunchâ bets, or limit them to small stakesâpizza money style. It scratches the itch without tanking your long-term profitability.
đ¤ Trap #4: Overanalyzing â Trust the Data, Not Just Your Instincts
A common mistake among bettors using TSP content is deviating from the suggested strategy. Itâs tempting to think you know betterâand maybe sometimes you doâbut more often, straying leads to underperformance.
The Hermes A.I. system is built on data-driven base wager risk levels, based on the score:
30â39: 1.00% of bankroll
40â49: 1.25%
50â59: 1.50%
60â69: 2.00%
70â79: 3.00%
80â89: 4.00%
90â100: 5.00%
You can find the full Hermes A.I. details anytime at TSP.Live/hermes.
The TSP Portfolio makes it even easierâeach play includes the risk level right there with it.
Of course, youâre free to bet however you like: wager more, less, not at all, or even fade the picks. But understandâdeviating from the TSP strategy means deviating from TSP’s performance. Itâs your call, but the system is built on stats, not emotion. Follow the framework if you want to stay aligned with the results.
đ The Harsh Reality: Most Bettors Arenât Profitable
People love to believe theyâre winning gamblers. But when they log every wager honestly, the truth usually surfacesâand itâs not pretty.
If you’re not tracking your action, you’re gambling blind.
đ What Sets Winners Apart
So when year-end rolls around and you see the celebration posts, but your bankroll doesnât reflect that joy…check these things:
Did you follow the system consistently?
Did you manage your bankroll like a pro?
Did you avoid side bets that added risk and noise?
If not, thereâs still time to adjust. Letâs finish the year strongâtogether.
đ¤ Good luck to us!
The day after the above article was published, I followed it up with additional commentary. The commentary fit with the above and got very positive reviews, so I figured I would include it with this article as well. I hope you enjoy…
đ˘ The Grind is Real
Up on Monday, down on Tuesdayâwelcome to the grind, my degenerate friends! This is the phase where professional bettors separate themselves from action junkies and perpetual losers. Itâs what I discussed yesterday in my article: đ A TSP Year-End Mystery: Why Did I Lose?
đ When Itâs Good, Itâs Great
We all love those hot streaks like March and April, where everything seems to go right. And guess what? Weâll have more months like that before 2025 wraps up.
But the real question is: How well do you manage yourself during the cold runs or sideways grinds while waiting for the next hot streak?
đ¸ If It Were Easy, Everyone Would Be Rich
Letâs face itâif gambling printed money daily, it would be boring (but hey, weâd live with it đ). Still, the ups and downs are part of the entertainment…and what make the hot runs so euphoric.
That said, I cannot stress this enoughâand it ties back to the article linked above:
The reason The Sharp Plays content has had 15 straight winning years since launching in 2011, and sportsbooks are still in business, is simple: even when given winning content, most gamblers still lose.
Why? Because they lack the discipline to:
Accept losing days, weeks and months
Avoid pressing or chasing
Stick with a consistent strategy
đ Cold Streak? Donât PanicâPause
If the content is cold, itâs OK to pass. Don’t chase. Donât switch strategies out of desperation.
Wait for the TSP Index to trend upward, then jump back in if youâre not comfortable riding the storm. Yes, you may miss a few winners, but if you only bet during uptrends, and The Sharp Plays ends the year winningâyouâll be just fine too.
If youâre thinking, âWait, TSPâyou said to be consistent, and now youâre saying only bet during uptrends?ââyouâre absolutely right. That is a consistent strategy. It’s just a different one from what TSP Live will be doing.
Only betting when the TSP Index is in an uptrend is a disciplined, mathematical approach. Yes, your results may differ from the full-year TSP performance, but historically, this method will still have you finishing well in the green by yearâs end.
You can track the Index on the Hermes A.I. tableâitâs:
Linked at the top of every alert on TSP Live
Accessible at TheSharpPlays.com by clicking “Index” in the site menu
This approach wonât eliminate all losing streaks, but it does reduce their frequency. If you find yourself struggling with self-control or emotional betting swings, this strategy helps protect your bankroll from…you.
đ§ Master the Mental Game
Gambling can be simpleâif you get out of your own head. Stick to a strategy. Manage your bankroll. Stay disciplined.
How do I know? Because thatâs what I do. My income doesnât come from The Sharp Playsâit comes from my own professional gambling, which you see reflected in the content.
đ Consistency is Key (Even in Losing Months)
Yes, there will be losing months ahead. And yes, as a subscriber, that means paying for a losing monthâand then coming right back to pay again next month.
Sound like sales talk? Maybe. But itâs also the truth.
We donât know in advance which months will be hot or cold. What we do know is this:
15 straight years of healthy annual profit have rewarded those with patience, consistency, and proper bankroll discipline.
There will be times when you lose in January, lose in February, and then come right back in Marchâonly to see the content crush it. Itâs tempting to think, âWhy not just pay during the winning months?â
But letâs be real: What would that even look like? Charging $0 for losing months and $500 for winning ones? In the end, it would average out to about the same as the current $179.99 per monthâjust dressed up to make some people feel better.
Like the gambling itself, pricing and content delivery are consistent. Unfortunately, not every subscriber is.
There are people who didnât like the results in December or January, so they skipped February, March, and Aprilâand missed out on massive profits.
If youâre going to be a TSP Live subscriber, commit through the ups and downs. Or donât subscribe at all. No hard feelingsâjust be consistent, whatever your choice.
I truly appreciate everyone who supports this grind, and Iâll always do everything I can to help you succeed. But I also recognize that this path isnât for everyoneâand thatâs OK.
Just be honest with yourself. Know your limits. Self-awareness is one of the most underrated tools in a gamblerâs arsenal.
đ˝ď¸ Final Bite of Food for Thought
This grind isnât for everyoneâbut if you can respect the process, control your impulses, and ride the waves with clarity and consistency, the rewards are there. Every year.
The following was originally posted in mid-April and is now being updated based on where things stand now and added to the ‘Education’ section on TSP.Live for future reference…
TSP Insiders Purchases Moving to TSP.Live
A new update is coming to streamline how you purchase selections from TSP Insiders, starting with Tony The Bookie and the new MLB addition to the TSP Insiders team. Wolf’s sales will remain at his WHOP of AnalyticsWolf.com.
Instead of going through TSPInsiders.com directly, youâll purchase Tonyâs selections the same way you subscribe to TSP Live packages…via TSP.Live/register. Simply visit the âSubscribeâ link in the menu, where youâll find an option labeled âTSP INSIDERS SELECTION â Tony The Bookie.â
â ď¸â ď¸ Note: There is no active selection available right now via the above methodâthis is just a heads-up on how the process will work. â ď¸â ď¸ I expect to test this setup with a live selection this coming week.
How It Will Work:
Visit the “Subscribe” link in the TSP.Live website menu.
Choose the TSP Insiders selection from the list of available subscriptions.
Complete your payment through the familiar TSP.Live checkout system.
After payment, you’ll be redirected to view the play. (If you aren’t redirected, just visit TSP.Live/tspinsiders, login if you aren’t already, and the play will be accessible at that link for anyone who purchased.)
Wolfâs picks will still be processed via WHOP, because that is where he does all his processing for his direct clients, but all other TSP Insider plays will go through TSP.Live moving forward.
TSPInsiders.com will remain fully functional, but clicking the “Purchase” link in the website menu (starting shortly) will direct you to TSP.Live for a listing of any available plays and the ability to checkout.
Why the Change?
This update allows a single login for both TSP Live and TSP Insiders purchases/access…simplifying access and improving user experience. Previously, the TSP Live platform didnât support this functionality, but a recent software upgrade made it possible.
Those of you with TSP Insiders Wallets, there will be a system on TSPInsiders.com to easily login and purchase using wallet funds. The TSP Insiders Wallet will be phased out. Those of you will crypto purchases for TSP Insiders will be given an alternate option for easy access/purchasing.
