Category: TSP Live Education

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: Hermes Elite A.I. – The Future of Betting Intelligence

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Hermes

The purpose of this article is to familiarize you with Hermes, an advanced betting analytics platform from The Sharp Plays (TSP). We’ll explore its origin, current capabilities, rollout roadmap, and future evolution. Plus, we’ll touch on the real-world challenges and considerations that come with managing such a dynamic tool.

🧬 Origins of Hermes

Hermes was first launched in November 2021 and ran until early 2023. Despite overall profitability, it had issues—most notably, speed. At 25–30 seconds per analysis, Hermes lagged in live betting environments where every second counts. So, it was sent back into R&D to be re-engineered for sub-3-second performance.

Why the name “Hermes”? In Greek mythology, Hermes is the god of gambling, luck, wealth, and trickery—also the messenger of the gods. A perfect metaphor: Hermes is our messenger between the betting markets and sharp bettors.

🚀 Hermes 2.0 and the AI Revolution

Major advances in AI during 2023 and 2024 gave new life to the project. With heavy investments in hardware, data subscriptions, and AI programming, Hermes was reintroduced in December 2024 to TSP Live subscribers.

After some final testing and infrastructure upgrades, Hermes Pro officially went live on January 13, 2025.

Since then, Hermes has:

  • Issued 150+ high-quality selections
  • Tackled obscure markets like Costa Rican and Argentinian soccer
  • Delivered win rates and ROI exceeding expectations
  • Highlighted unique betting angles and sharp money overlaps

🧠 What Can Hermes Do?

Hermes isn’t just a pick generator—it’s a fully dynamic betting assistant:

  • 🧮 Generates and ranks plays based on score thresholds
  • 📡 Detects patterns among sharp betting groups
  • 📊 Analyzes data and odds to create implied probabilities
  • 🔁 Self-audits its own performance to improve quality
  • 💡 Answers betting questions in seconds (e.g., “Who’s the best bettor on Getafe games?”)

It can even deliver real-time alerts on market shifts, sharp moves, prop bets, and group buys—automatically.

🗓️ The Hermes Rollout: Phase by Phase

📅 Month 1 (Jan 13 – Feb 13)

  • Manual monitoring by me
  • Selective release of Hermes Selections
  • Performance: 56.77% win rate, +21.90% bankroll ROI, +12.58% ROR

📅 Month 2 (Feb 14 – Mar 16)

  • Hermes begins managing the TSP Portfolio
  • Operates under tight parameters for risk and sizing
  • Mission: Grow house money for aggressive end-of-year plays

📅 Month 3 (Mar Madness – Mid-April)

  • Hermes issues automated alerts
  • Moves closer to full autonomy

📅 May – August

  • Hermes continues as Director of Trading
  • Receives upgrades to prep for football season dominance

⚙️ Hermes as the New Command Center

Over time, Hermes will fully absorb and manage:

  • ✅ TSP Live Radar
  • ✅ KB Consensus
  • ✅ Book Needs
  • ✅ Group Buys

All those legacy analytics are now integrated into Hermes. When an alert-worthy condition is met—Hermes will notify you.

⚠️ Challenges to Consider

📌 Analysis Paralysis

With so much data, you might freeze instead of act. That’s where my experience comes in—I curate and filter the firehose of information.

📌 Financial Sustainability

Hermes requires:

  • Data subscriptions 📚
  • Server infrastructure 🖥️
  • Developer support 🧑‍💻

To keep TSP Live prices stable through 2025, a small percentage (≈10%) of Hermes content will be packaged with TSP Insiders. But rest assured:

  • 💯 All TSP Portfolio plays will be in TSP Live or posted free
  • 🧮 90%+ of Hermes content will remain part of TSP Live

No gouging. Just practical monetization.

🤝 Final Thoughts: A Team Effort

Hermes is a game-changer, but like anything powerful, it must be used wisely. Set betting limits, avoid overextension, and trust the process.

You now understand:

  • 📖 Hermes’s origin and goals
  • 🧠 Its core functions
  • 🛠️ The staged rollout and future roadmap
  • 🧩 Challenges and how we’ll solve them
  • 💵 Transparent pricing and content distribution

Thank you for making Hermes possible. If you have feedback—constructive or curious—I welcome it. Just give me a little time to respond as I sort through the inbox post-launch.

Let’s all cash in together. Good luck in your action! 🍀

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: WSJ Study on Gambler’s Optimism (Hint…It’s WAY Out of Whack!)

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📖 Great read from The Wall Street Journal that every bettor—novice or seasoned—should absorb. The article dives into a Stanford University study that reveals just how delusional most sports bettors are when it comes to their expected returns. Here’s the blunt truth…

🔬 Key Findings from the Stanford Study

📉 Expectation vs. Reality

  • The average bettor expects a gain of $0.003 (0.3 cents) for every dollar wagered.
  • In reality, they lose $0.075 (7.5 cents) for every dollar bet.
  • This disconnect highlights a massive overestimation of personal betting skill.

🧠 Optimism Gap

  • 10% of bettors were so overly optimistic they expected to win $0.20+ per dollar wagered.
  • 80% were still overly optimistic, just not by as much.
  • Only 9% of bettors actually underestimated how they’d perform.

💭 From lead author Matthew Brown:

“We found that people more or less understood the amount of money they had lost in the past, but they just thought the future would be better.”

Sound familiar? That’s because every square thinks their next bet will finally turn things around—until it doesn’t.

🧠 Gambling Is a Mental Game

You will never win consistently in this business until you manage your expectations and accept the harsh truth about betting reality.

🚫 Too many gamblers:

  • Set short-term goals (win $10K this week, double my bankroll by playoffs)
  • Fail to hit them
  • Press and chase to “get there faster”
  • Blow up their bankrolls and cry foul

✅ What winners do:

  • Set realistic, long-term expectations (i.e., 12 months)
  • Grind the edge
  • Accept losing streaks as part of the process
  • Stay disciplined, patient, and mechanical

📉 Final Thought: Be the Book… Not the Sucker

This Stanford data confirms what most books already know:

Gamblers are overly optimistic, underprepared, and emotionally driven.

And if you’re not willing to train your mindset, then trust me… your bookie is thrilled to have you.

Want to win? Treat sports betting like a business. Master your emotions. Respect the grind. And for the love of bankrolls everywhere, stop thinking your luck changes every Sunday.

🎓 Lesson of the day: Set a 12-month plan. Stick to it. Anything less, and you’re just another dreamer the books will gladly bleed dry.

Good luck—you’ll need it. 😉

bookmark_borderThe First Steps On My Gambling Path…

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I’m always asked how I got into sports betting. The first gambling memory I have goes to when I was very young. Based on the house we were living in at the time, I honestly had to be 6-8 years old. It’s funny, the memories you retain from that age are very limited, so for this to be one of those memories says something about me and perhaps what my path in life was intended to be.

Anyway, when I was 6-8 years old I recall seeing my dad with one of the old parlay tickets. It was on the corner of the side table in our living room. For those who don’t remember or even know what these are…they are those white strips of paper where “All Ties Lose” and a four teamer pays 10-1. These cards were passed around workplaces like crazy in the 70’s through the 90’s…and sometimes even today (click here for the best picture I could find showing one). I asked my dad what it was and he briefly explained the parlay ticket or parlay card as they were know…teams get points because it would be too easy to pick outright winners, you bet money and get paid if you are correct on everything you pick. My dad didn’t bet with a bookie or anything, just take a shot at a parlay card each week for fun. Yep, even at that young age, the thought of picking sports teams and winning money was injected into my blood. My degenerate gland was activated!

People say you know from an early age what you were meant to be…what your destiny would entail…it’s just a matter of whether you listen or not…and what path you follow to get there. I was way too young to be excited about gambling on a parlay ticket…but I was! Looking back now it is clear the universe was dropping me hints. The universe would drop me a lot of hints along the way, I am glad I listened. I will save those for another story at another time!

Fast forward to when I was around 12. I was out shopping with my mother at one of those stores which sells various discount items. The store would be similar to a Dollar General today. Well, in this store there was a book area and my eye caught this green and white book with the title “Betting To Win on Sports” by Wayne Alan Root. I knew nothing about Wayne Root at the time, just that it was a book about betting sports to win money…EXCELLENT! Just what I wanted to do…bet sports and win! I was jacked and I asked my mother to get it for me. Thankfully it was a book, so she didn’t pay much attention to the title as she threw it into the cart! It was definitely discounted to less than $5…because the listed retail price on the back was only $8.95. LOL! It was without a doubt the first book I ever read on gambling…and funny enough, I have kept the book through the years because of what it meant to my journey. I wish I could have kept that first parlay ticket I saw my dad with, it would have made for a GREAT artifact in the TSP Gambling Museum! Below are actual photos of my copy of Wayne Root’s book as it looks today…

The book is still around, with used versions available for purchase through various outlets. It’s hardly some Bible of sports betting success. I don’t even know if the strategies were good, but it’s a book that made me think about gambling in different ways and only increased my interest in the business. It made me think more analytically…even at 12 years old…yeah, I was a nerd…and a degenerate. If you want to have a fun read or check out the book yourself, there are (at least as I type) a couple used copies on Amazon…

https://www.amazon.com/Betting-Sports-Wayne-Allyn-Root/dp/0553347896/

Anyway, people always ask me how I got started and these two occasions…the parlay ticket with my dad and then a few years later with the book, were without a doubt key to leading me on my gambling path. There were a lot of steps along the path, and breadcrumbs that kept me moving forward, but without the parlay card or the book, I may never have gotten into gambling.

I don’t know what your path in life is meant to be. Sometimes people think it is one thing, or want it to be one thing, but their actual destiny is something else. I do believe you get little hints along the way and the question is whether you follow those hints to your destiny or you tear off the path in another direction, spending your time on earth always searching but never finding…and at best only achieving minor successes. It will feel “different” when one of those universal hints get dropped in front of you…it makes you stop for a brief second as your brain says…wait a minute…there is something more to this. Do you then blow right by or sit back and think deeply about what it might mean? When you think you figured it out, follow that path and keep an eye out for the breadcrumbs along the way which provide the reassurance that you are on your path. Yes, we all have free will, but that doesn’t mean the universe won’t drop hints in front of you to help you get to your destiny. Your free will is whether you listen or not.

Not everyone’s path leads to riches in money and power. It’s about fulfillment…and whatever that means to your soul. My aunt’s path was to be a teacher…to educate kids and help them achieve their greatness. She wasn’t poor by any means, but she also wasn’t wealthy…but that didn’t matter to her. There are few people I have ever met who loved their life more than my aunt loved hers. The energy she had teaching, to anyone watching her do it, knew that was her destiny…and she was without a doubt fulfilled by it.

My path was gambling. I wanted other successes and things in life, and I took shots to get them, but it never seemed to work out. When I got back on the gambling path…everything would almost immediately come together for me. I stopped fighting it…and I am glad I did. While I think how much fun it would be to have Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos business successes, and be looking to spend my pocket change on buying and NFL team, that’s not my destiny. It’s all good though, because gambling has given me more in life than I ever could have imagined…and it keeps giving me more and more to this very day. It’s where I was meant to be and I am incredibly fulfilled by it…and continuously look forward to what the future holds!

I hope all of you find total fulfillment out of your lives!

Look at me I am Tony Robbins now! LOL! 😂 😂 😂

Good luck to you in your life’s journey! 🍀

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: Return on Risk (ROR) versus Bankroll Return on Investment (ROI)…it’s a BIG Difference!

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One of the most consistently misunderstood concepts in gambling is the difference between Return on Investment (ROI) and Return on Risk (ROR).

Recently, I mentioned that the TSP Portfolio had a +5.6% ROR for the football season, and right away I saw a bunch of people assume that means if they had a $10,000 bankroll, they made $560.

That’s not even close.

🔍 Let’s Break This Down

In professional betting, two key performance metrics define your long-term success:

1️⃣ Return on Risk (ROR)

This is profit made per dollar or unit wagered.

  • Example: A +5% ROR means you earn $0.05 for every $1 you risk.
  • The focus here is not your bankroll—it’s the grind on each individual dollar wagered.

2️⃣ Bankroll ROI

This measures how much profit you’ve made as a percentage of your total bankroll.

  • Example: If you started with $10,000 and you’re up $8,730, your ROI is +87.3%.

See the difference? ROR is about efficiency and edge per dollar risked. ROI is the result of that efficiency compounded over your bankroll.

🎰 Casinos Work the Same Way

Still think 5% ROR sounds small? Consider American roulette, which has a house edge of 5.26%. That means:

  • For every $1 you bet, you lose 5.26 cents.
  • Over time, that “nickel per dollar” grind bankrupts players.

Now flip the script. Instead of slowly bleeding your money, you’re the house—you’re earning that nickel per dollar, every time you bet.

That’s the math behind professional betting. You grind profits over time, not by hitting 80% win rates (which is fantasy), but by being consistent and patient with a small but positive edge.

📊 TSP Portfolio Results: Why the Math Works

Let’s use 2024 data from the TSP Portfolio as an example:

  • ROR: +8.54%
  • Bankroll ROI: +87.3%

So, let’s run a couple of bankroll scenarios:

BankrollAvg. Bet2024 ProfitTotal Since Jan 1, 2023
$500,000$5,000$436,500$1,743,500
$1,000,000$10,000$873,000$3,487,000

And that’s with zero thinking and a subscription that costs less than $6/day.

This is why ChatGPT and every major betting model says a +5% ROR is exceptional.
Most “professional bettors” don’t even reach +2%.

😤 So, What’s the Catch?

YOU. ARE. THE. CATCH.

People LOVE the math…until a cold streak hits. Then suddenly:

  • They forget all the past performance.
  • They panic during a 2-13 stretch.
  • They press and chase.
  • They burn their bankrolls before the hot run inevitably arrives.

That’s why I preach patience like a monk with a megaphone. You want to be a pro? Then act like one. Cold streaks are not a glitch—they are a feature of professional gambling.

You don’t survive and thrive in this game because you never lose. You thrive because you don’t lose your mind when you lose.

🔁 Cold Runs Are a Guarantee—Not a Surprise

Let’s be real: Even with stellar ROR numbers…

  • ❄️ You’ll experience cold streaks EVERY month
  • 📉 You’ll see 0-20 runs
  • 😵 And yes, it’ll be painful if you can’t emotionally or financially weather the storm

But guess what?

🔥 Those cold streaks are ALWAYS followed by hot runs
📈 And if you stick it out, the math makes you whole
💰 The grind wins in the long run—every single time

🧠 Final Takeaway

Professional sports betting is a math game. It’s not about avoiding losses—it’s about managing them. If you…

  • Treat ROR like a casino does
  • Stop chasing
  • Bet like a robot
  • Trust the edge and let it play out

…you’ll make more money than 96% of bettors out there.

So chill out, stop pressing in cold runs, and let the numbers do their job.

👉 Need proof? The full TSP Portfolio logs and performance data are here:
TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/

Good luck, degenerates. You’ve got this—if you can just stay patient.

bookmark_borderTSP Live Education: Playing Public Regression

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Every now and then, the public goes on a tear in sports betting. While their losing streaks are typically longer—and far more brutal—sometimes, the public hits big.

In fact, the last time we saw a public run of this magnitude was way back in 2005 during the NFL season. And now, 19 years later, we’re staring down another monster streak. If the public cashes again this week, it could become the most profitable public run in modern betting history—an all-timer.

🤔 Did the Public Suddenly Get Smarter?

Short answer: No chance.

People asked the same question back in 2005. “Has the public evolved?” they said. “Is this the information age catching up with the books?”

And yet, since then, sportsbooks have made billions and billions of dollars.

Let’s look at the data:

YearPublic Win % (Point Spreads)
199749.9%
202350.2%

That’s a 0.3% improvement in 26 years—despite technology, the internet, betting content, and analytics exploding. Public bettors need to hit 52.4% just to break even. At this rate, they’ll hit profitability in the year 2149 😂.

📉 A Look at the Extremes

  • Best Year for the Public: 2005 at 51.1%
  • Worst Year: 2008 at 48.7% (yep, right after the 2005 run)

So what does this tell us? That public success is cyclical and rare. These winning runs are statistical anomalies, not the norm. But “rare” ≠ “never.”

You’re witnessing one of those rare, epic runs right now.

🔁 So, What Happens Next?

If history repeats itself—and it usually does—the public is due to give it all back. The question is when, not if.

So how can you capitalize?

📌 Strategy 1: Target Book Needs

If the public is going to start hemorrhaging units, books will have to win their biggest decisions. This means paying attention to Book Needs—those matchups where the public is heavy on one side and the sportsbook needs the opposite result.

📌 Strategy 2: Look for Book Need + Sharp Buy Combos

For added confidence, filter your Book Need targets with the presence of sharp money on the same side.

Public on one side.
Sharp money and the book on the other.
That’s a bet worth taking.

🧠 But Timing Is Everything

While fading the public sounds easy, starting too early can be costly.

We look for signs of a turn. One of the best indicators? A wire-to-wire beating on a public-heavy game.

Take this recent example:

🐬 Dolphins vs Rams

Prior to the game, I said:

“If this is the turn, it would be a great result for the book given the volume on the Rams if Miami gets a wire-to-wire win.”

Result?

  • Miami 1Q Spread ✅
  • Miami 1Q Moneyline ✅
  • Miami 1H Spread ✅
  • Miami 1H Moneyline ✅
  • Miami Full Game Spread ✅
  • Miami Full Game Moneyline ✅

Textbook public beatdown. The books needed Miami—and got everything.

🕵️‍♂️ Clues from History

  • If the public cashes again next week, we may witness the biggest public run in 30+ years.
  • If not, this week could mark the turning point—the one where sharp bettors step in and fade the inflated lines.
  • If you’re going to fade the public, this might be your ideal window.

📊 Your Game Plan Going Forward

  1. Watch Book Needs every week
  2. Prioritize Book Need + Sharp Buy combo angles
  3. Consider underdog moneylines during public regression
  4. Look for wire-to-wire wins on the book side as signs of a shift
  5. Don’t rush—wait for the turn, then pounce

🎯 Final Thoughts

The public isn’t smarter—they’re lucky right now. And when this anomaly ends, they’ll give it all back and then some, just like they always do.

“Fade the public” isn’t just a catchphrase—it’s a time-tested strategy when done strategically, not emotionally.

Thank you for reading. Let’s stay sharp, patient, and tactical as the NFL season unfolds.

Good luck! 🍀
—TSP

bookmark_borderWhat Qualifies You As a Professional Bettor? Here’s an Unbiased Assessment (ChatGPT)

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RAW PDF Files of ChatGPT Response: Page 1, Page 2

Since people may not want to believe me, I asked an independent source the question and got their response. My independent source was ChatGPT and I asked the following question: “what is the average ROI for a professional sports bettor”. Here’s what ChatGPT said…

The average ROI (Return on Investment) for a professional sports bettor can vary widely depending on the individual’s skill level, strategy, sport, and overall market conditions. However, in general, a “good” ROI for a professional sports bettor is typically in the range of 2% to 5%. Let’s break this down further:

1. Low ROI (1%–2%):

  • Many professionals will be happy with a consistent ROI of around 1% to 2%. While this might seem low, in a field with high variance and the costs associated with betting (e.g., commissions, software, data, etc.), a 1%-2% ROI can still be quite profitable over the long term.

2. Moderate ROI (3%–5%):

  • An ROI in this range is considered excellent. Bettors who can consistently achieve a 3% to 5% ROI have likely mastered certain sports or betting markets and have access to high-quality data and analytics. These bettors are often experts in one or two sports and specialize in specific markets (e.g., player props, futures, or niche betting options).

3. High ROI (5%+):

  • Anything above 5% is very rare and would typically indicate exceptional skill, an edge in a particular market, or an advantage in finding inefficiencies that the broader betting community hasn’t noticed. These bettors may use advanced models, statistical analysis, or have insider information to generate their edge.

4. Factors Impacting ROI:

  • Betting Volume: High-volume bettors may have a lower ROI but make up for it with sheer scale. Conversely, low-volume bettors may have a higher ROI but fewer overall bets.
  • Sports/Markets Chosen: ROI can be better in niche or lesser-known sports with less efficient markets, whereas popular sports like NFL or NBA have very efficient betting lines, making it harder to find an edge.
  • Betting Strategy: Professional bettors who use sharp betting strategies, like value betting, line shopping, or betting with contrarian approaches, will often see better ROI than those who just bet based on intuition or emotion.
  • Bankroll Management: Proper bankroll management and avoiding “chasing losses” is key for maintaining a positive ROI.

5. Challenges:

  • Bookmaker Limits: As bettors become more successful, bookmakers may limit the size of their bets, which can reduce the overall ROI.
  • Edge Diminishment: The more a bettor wins, the more difficult it becomes to maintain an edge. This is because betting markets adjust based on new information, and lines become sharper.

In summary, a 2%–5% ROI is typically the target for a professional sports bettor, and even this requires skill, discipline, and a long-term perspective. It’s important to note that sports betting is inherently risky, and short-term losses can occur even for skilled bettors. A positive ROI over a large sample of bets is generally what separates a professional from a casual bettor.

So, you don’t have to believe me, ChatGPT says the typical ROI for a professional sports bettor is 2-5% and to quote ChatGPT, “Anything above 5% is very rare and would typically indicate exceptional skill, an edge in a particular market, or an advantage in finding inefficiencies that the broader betting community hasn’t noticed. These bettors may use advanced models, statistical analysis, or have insider information to generate their edge.“

TSP Portfolio lifetime ROI (Portfolio records & logs) is +16.6% and +8.8% in 2024!

Good luck!

bookmark_borderTSP Education – Hot & Cold Cycles

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As of this morning, the TSP Index has moved into an uptrend after 16 consecutive days of a downtrend. That’s big—but before we celebrate, let’s put this shift into perspective and learn why understanding these trends is everything in professional betting.

🔁 Understanding the Natural Rhythm of the Market

A typical TSP Index run (uptrend or downtrend) lasts:

  • 7–10 days on average
  • 75% end within 14 days
  • 20+ day runs are considered long

If we take that 7-day average, we can say that over a year, you’ll experience around 52 “runs”—some hot, some cold.

Now let’s say your betting approach hits at a 55% win rate (which is excellent, by the way).

🎯 The Math of the Grind:

  • 29 winning weeks
  • 23 losing weeks
  • That’s a net of just 6 winning weeks per year

Most of your annual profit will come from those 6 net winning weeks.

Let that sink in.

💡 The Problem? Most People Mismanage the Math

Yes, you might win more per week during hot runs than you lose during cold runs—but that’s only if you bet correctly.

Most people? They do the opposite.

They:

  • Panic during cold streaks
  • Bet more per play
  • Shrink their risk during hot runs

That’s the definition of betting backwards.

It’s like fishing in a hurricane—sure, Forrest Gump made it work, but don’t bank on being the exception.

🧠 This Isn’t Just a Pep Talk—It’s Your Blueprint

This article is about reframing your expectations and understanding the truth behind professional gambling.

🧩 What You Need to Understand:

  1. Margins are tight in professional betting
  2. Cold streaks are not anomalies—they’re standard
  3. Most profits come from a few weeks a year
  4. Success = Maximize the hot, minimize the cold
  5. Patience is the only true edge over the long term

📉 “But Why Aren’t We Winning Every Week?”

I get this a lot from new subscribers.
Some of you are genuinely confused. Some are just annoyed.

But here’s the truth:

If you expect to win every week, you don’t understand the business.

Professional gambling is not about avoiding losses—it’s about managing them. You’ll have multiple losing weeks in a year, and even full losing months.

“You play for a living, it’s like any other job…
You don’t gamble, you grind it out. Get your money in when you have the best of it, protect it when you don’t. Don’t give anything away.”
— Rounders (1998)

That’s not just a quote—it’s the best one-sentence summary of how pros operate.

📊 Let’s Talk Performance: By the Numbers

Here’s how TSP Live is performing at the time of this writing:

ContentROI
TSP Live Radar+16.5%
KB Consensus+53%
TSP Portfolio+9.1% (2024), +6.9% lifetime
Wolf+17.6%
Tony+11%
TSP Bot (later known as Hermes Elite A.I.)+7.0%
  • The average professional sports bettor earns +5% ROI
  • The average sportsbook hold is 6–8%

TSP content outperforms both. And that’s not a fluke—it’s verifiable and logged.

Yet some still complain:

“It’s not enough!”
“We’re not winning enough!”

These people forget what it was like to be a public bettor with a -5% to -7% ROI. If that’s your mindset, TSP isn’t for you… but I’ll see you back here soon—usually after you lose enough money elsewhere.

🧘‍♂️ The Key Takeaway

If you:

  • Expect weekly wins
  • Can’t accept losing runs
  • Think professionals never have cold streaks

Then you’re not ready yet.

But if you:

  • Understand that the edge is small but real
  • Accept that grinding is the game
  • Want to learn how to maximize hot streaks and minimize drawdowns

…then welcome to the sharp side.

🏁 Final Word: Ride the Waves Like a Pro

The TSP Index just moved into an uptrend—which means opportunity may be coming.

  • Now’s the time to stay alert
  • Watch for the run
  • Bet smart, not desperate

Professional gambling isn’t about big wins every week—it’s about riding out the storms and being there when the sun shines.

Six net winning weeks per year could fund your lifestyle—if you don’t destroy your bankroll during the 23 losing ones.

So buckle up. The grind is real—but so are the rewards.

Good luck! 📈

bookmark_borderNewbie Guide to TSP Live & Advantage Betting

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Welcome to the Action. Now Let’s Get You Up to Speed.

🗣️ “You Must Have New Customers…”

Someone recently commented, “You must have a bunch of new customers in… you’re in rare form with your morning messages.”

They were right.

Every football season brings a flood of new bettors into the mix—novices with dreams of turning a $1,000 bankroll into $100,000 by October. I’ve been there too. In high school in the ‘90s, I placed my first $20 bets thinking they’d lead to a steady income, a car, and all the luxuries a teenager could dream of.

Spoiler: That’s not how it works.

🪙 From Summer Vets to September Dreamers

From April through July, the only people subscribed to TSP Live are true degenerates—my people.

They:

  • Celebrate wins 🎉
  • Brush off losses 💨
  • Understand this is a long-term game 🔄

But come football season?
Here come the wannabe millionaires, full of hope, hype, and unrealistic expectations.

I get it. But I’m here to give you the wake-up call I never got—and save you some pain along the way.

💊 The Harsh Reality: You’ve Been Sold the Sizzle, Not the Steak

Newbies enter TSP Live after seeing months of social media smoke:

  • Stacks of cash 💵
  • Oversized tickets 🧾
  • Flamboyant touts screaming about “Locks of the Century” 🔒

You think, “If this clown is printing money, I can too!”
But here’s the problem: You’re only seeing the high. Not the side effects.

“Professional” bettors on TV? Some are degenerates hemorrhaging money behind the scenes.

I’ve got friends at sportsbooks who laugh when a talking head shows up on air—they’re known losers.

🧮 Math > Myth

Remember:

  • DraftKings has an $18 BILLION market cap.
  • That doesn’t happen because most people win.

Only 3–4% of gamblers qualify as long-term profitable professionals. Want to be one? You can—but it takes effort, discipline, and a complete mental reset.

🧠 Lesson #1: Learn the TSP Index

The TSP Index is the heartbeat of sharp/public performance.

It analyzes the daily ROI of all bets made by public vs. sharp-rated bettors across multiple books and leagues. Then, it produces a score from -5 to +5 to indicate who’s in control of the market.

  • Above the moving average? Sharps have momentum.
  • Below it? The public is cooking (temporarily, of course).

📍 Check it daily at:
TheSharpPlays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/

Don’t dismiss the Index just because you don’t understand it. Those who monitor it daily swear by its predictive accuracy.

🎯 Lesson #2: Don’t Bet Every Angle You See

Your first couple weeks as a new subscriber?

Only follow the TSP Portfolio. Period.

Why?

  • It’s low risk, low volatility, high ROI
  • Designed for new and experienced bettors alike
  • Requires less than five minutes of attention per day

💡 Use the rest of your time to learn the tools:

  • TSP Live Radar
  • KB Consensus
  • Book Needs
  • Sharp Buy reports
  • Group action indicators

📚 Explore the Education Hub:
tsp.live/education/

Eventually, you’ll understand what you want to add to your own strategy—or decide to stick with just the Portfolio (which is a solid decision in itself).

⚖️ The Three Rules of Advantage Betting

1️⃣ Don’t Chase or Press During a Cold Run

Yes, we all get tempted. Yes, I’ve chased.
But when you embrace the reality that hot runs always follow cold ones, you learn to ride it out.

The goal: Survive the ice so you can thrive in the heat.

2️⃣ Ditch Your Preconceived Notions

You can’t remove losses.
You can’t outsmart variance.
You can’t perfectly time the market.

Stop trying to be perfect. Be profitable instead.

3️⃣ Get Comfortable Losing (Because It Will Happen… A LOT)

I’ve lost over 50,000 bets in my life.
The secret? I’ve won more than I’ve lost.

Even in a “bad” month, like being down 0.66 units in September, I had people freaking out—despite a lifetime ROI of +17%.

📌 If you can’t handle a cold week, you’re not ready for the long haul.

🏆 The Portfolio: The Margot Robbie of Betting Content

Look, you’ve got Margot Robbie sitting in front of you—she’s yours.

Stop trying to make her sexier.

TSP Portfolio:

  • +33.8 units lifetime
  • Verified logs
  • Best ROI in the industry
  • 100% transparency
  • Requires almost zero effort to follow

You can search for better, but you’ll come right back.

🏁 Final Word: Master the Simple, Then Build From There

There’s no magic formula. No loss-proof strategy.
Just a long grind, discipline, and understanding how to ride the waves.

You can become one of the 3–4% of long-term profitable bettors…
But you’ll need to ditch the hype, embrace the process, and put in some damn work.

🙋 Questions?

Reach out on Telegram: t.me/TheSharpPlays
Or use the Contact Form at TSP.Live

Welcome to the game. Now let’s get to work. 🧠🔥💵

bookmark_borderTSP Education: “If You’re So Good at Betting, Why Sell Picks?” — Let’s Talk About It

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This is one of the most common critiques in the sports betting world:

“If someone is so good at gambling, why not just bet their picks and make a fortune? Why sell them?”

It’s a fair question…
But the answer is rooted in simple economics and market reality—not conspiracy or grift.

Let’s break it down.

💡 Gambling to Make Money? Why Not Do Both?

Most people get into gambling for two reasons:

  1. Money
  2. Entertainment

If you’re good at it, and you’re in it for profit, then it makes sense to:

  • Bet your own picks
  • Monetize that expertise further by selling those picks

That’s not shady—that’s capitalism.

The criticism usually stems from emotional frustration with handicappers or touts, not rational business logic.

📊 Let’s Look at the Math: TSP Portfolio Performance

Here’s a real-world example using The TSP Portfolio, which launched on January 1st, 2023.

  • Lifetime ROI: +18%
  • 2024 ROI (YTD as of this article): +11%
  • Total Wagers: 1,167
  • Total Profit: +35.38 units

💰 Example: Pro Betting $5,000 per 0.1 Unit

  • Average bet size in the TSP Portfolio = 0.17 units = $8,500
  • Total profit = 353.8 x $5,000 = $1,769,000
  • 2024 alone = 92.4 x $5,000 = $462,000

Not too bad, right?

🧾 Now Add Pick Sales to the Equation

Let’s say that same pro sells the portfolio content for:

  • $100/month
  • 1,000 subscribers

That’s $100,000/month, or:

  • $800,000 for 8 months of 2024
  • $2,000,000 total since Jan 1, 2023

🔢 Combined Income Breakdown:

Income SourceAmount
Betting Winnings$1,769,000
Content Sales$2,000,000
Total$3,769,000

So let’s ask again…

Would you turn down an extra $2 million in income just to keep your bets to yourself?

💣 But Why Not Just Bet Bigger Instead of Selling?

Great question. Here’s the answer:

📉 Eventually, you top out on what you can realistically bet.

Example:
Let’s say you want to go from $5,000 → $50,000 per 0.1 unit.

That means:

  • 1.0 unit bet = $500,000
  • Easy in NFL, Premier League, etc.
  • Not so easy in preseason WNBA, Olympic table tennis, or ATP Challenger Tour.

Even high-end bettors run into betting limits, soft markets, or reduced access.

So what’s the smart move?

  • Bet your edge
  • Then monetize it again by reselling it AFTER the bet is placed

🔐 Selling Picks = Smart Capital Expansion

We live in a world where:

  • Sportsbooks limit or ban sharp bettors more than ever
  • Outs are drying up
  • Market volume caps your upside

Selling picks doesn’t replace your edge—it extends it.

The bettors who purchase quality content become part of that monetization chain, allowing pros to continue doing what they do best—betting sharp and grinding ROI.

👊 So… Don’t Hate the Player, Hate the Game

The hate toward pick sellers is understandable—it’s an industry filled with bad actors.
But when a documented, profitable bettor shares content after betting it themselves, and uses it to expand their income?

That’s not grifting. That’s running a smart betting business.

🏁 Final Word

Being good at betting and selling your content are not mutually exclusive. In fact, for professionals facing the real-world betting limits, they go hand in hand.

So the next time you hear,

“If he’s so good, why is he selling picks?”

Just remember:

It’s not a weakness. It’s leverage.

Good luck out there!

bookmark_borderSaratoga Handicapping #3 – July 20th, Race #11

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In the last two episodes of “Saratoga Handicapping” I dove int races in looking to find the value. However, what if you have a horse you absolutely know is going to win…but it is going to be a big chalk and likely not a value BUT YOU JUST HAVE TO HAVE ACTION TO IT!!!!

Alright, in these cases you would use a mix of handicapping and value searching. There is one such race that fits this mold for me at Saratoga. It is Race #11.

The TSP Power Ratings for Race 11: 3/4-1/5-2

BRISNET.com Racing Form for Race 11 (Click Here)

The #3, Thorpedo Anna is a name you might recall from the Kentucky Oaks and then the Acorn on Belmont Stakes day back in early June. Thorpedo Ann blew away the fields in both races and has been training very well leading up to this race. Those were very strong fields of horses too…today’s field is rather laughable by comparison. So, if the jockey doesn’t screw this up or fall off the horse I would be shocked if Thorpedo Anna does not win. I have been shocked before and Thorpedo Anna’s prices will be -EV as a win bet…so it is not worth betting straight. Don’t go and put $50,000 on Thorpedo Anna because “she can’t lose”. There is A LOT that can happen in a horse race. So, instead of a $50,000 win wager on a -EV horse, let’s try a $20 or less exotic using Thorpedo Anna.

The option becomes putting together either a Superfecta (first 4 horses) or a Trifecta (first three horses). By being able to wheel or key Thorpedo Anna on top, we can maybe get a price to come in and provide a good exotic.

In this race, just based on the TSP Power Ratings, the horses morning line odds are…

3 = 1/2
4 = 5/1
1 = 5/2
5 = 8/1
2 = 20/1

If we “assume” for wagering that Anna wins the race, then we put here in our top spot.

1st: #3

Now we can do either a trifecta or superfecta. I would not be interested in an exacta because with Anna there it isn’t going to pay much.

If the race goes 3-1-2-5-2 then the exotics are worthless. There’s no value or money if that is the order of finish. If Anna wins, then the #1 cannot come in 2nd place. So, that leaves me 2, 4 or 5 for my 2nd place spot in the wager. The 2 is an a rough horse and doesn’t have much going for it as you can get just by the notes. I don’t see it for the 2nd Place spot. So, I will use 4 & 5 for my 2nd Place spot in the wager.

2nd: 4,5

Now if I want to make this a trifecta or superfecta, I technically could have 1,2,4,5 for the third place spot. However, given there are only 5 horses in this race, and given the #2 is a rough horse on paper. Everyone who boxes the Superfecta or Trifecta is going to do it as 1,3,4,5…throwing out the #2. To have a good price we NEED the #2 in the trifecta and the #1 out of the trifecta is Thorpedo Anna is to win. So, based on this value assessment, I would want 2,4,5 for the third spot to create my trifecta.

I am not playing a superfecta because there are only five horses and every idiot will just box all five horses to guarantee a payout. Dumb…but it’s going to happen and thereby the Super won’t pay what it should. However, a proper trifecta that includes the #2 but removes the #1…should that hit…would likely carry a +EV payout. So, let’s do it based on what I have put together so far.

$1 Trifecta
1st: 3
2nd: 4,5
3rd: 2,4,5
Total Cost = $4.00

The above breakdown didn’t really use the racing form much. Instead my wager here is solely based on my thoughts on Thorpedo Anna and this being a weak field (based on the smaller stakes races the rest of these horses outside Anna are coming from) combined with the TSP Power Ratings as a filter while trying to find the optimal payout with Thorpedo at the top.

My goal with this “lesson” is to show how you can breakdown a race based on a horse you like and then make value assumptions as to the best way to take a wager that is going to be +EV versus betting you “lock” straight and heavy…and then having some bad luck take your lock out…with a large amount of bankroll. You may not win but when you do win it will cover all those losses in the process and turn a profit because you are keeping value on your side!

Let’s see how it goes today!

Good luck!