bookmark_border**Sunday Recap**

It was a losing Saturday, but Sunday more than made up for it!!! That’s how it goes…ebbs and flows. Just have to be patient and realize there will ALWAYS be losses along the way. Roughly 45-47% of your days will be losers…that’s a lot…accept it and roll with it. Now for the recap!

In TSP Live…

The Group Buy from the Oddsmaker’s Report had a nice comeback on Richmond to pickup 1 unit there!

Unfortunately, the Oddsmaker’s Report golf did not have such luck as Dahmen lost to Pendrith for -1.15 units.

Mount St Mary’s for the Most Interesting Action of the day ended up winning the damn thing outright! I told you I was on to something here. LOL!!

The Degenerate Club Selections performed very strongly on Sunday…

DCR Selections (105-76 NCAAB / 13-10 NBA / 2-0 NHL / 1-0 NFL)
NBA 0-1
NCAAB 5-0

Late Arrivals (18-17 NCAAB / 4-4 NBA)
NCAAB 2-2

Tightened Selections (12-12 NCAAB / 1-0 NBA / 1-0 NHL)
NCAAB 2-0

Late Releases (3-2 NCAAB)
NCAAB 0-1

Degenerate 4-leg parlay turns 0.10 units into 1.20 units for a total of 2.01 units ready to roll.

On Twitter and Telegram, the book need on Manchester City/Tottenham UN3 (-135) gets the easy win! The sharp buy in golf got the win with Hovland easy over Fitzpatrick for +1 unit! I also picked up Richmond in-play for a big 0.10 units toward the Degenerate Club!

Monday’s tend to be quiet with the shorter card, but let’s see what we get!

Good luck!

bookmark_border**Saturday Recap**

In TSP Live…

There were no 1 unit wagers yesterday, and it was a good thing because the Degenerate Club Selections had only their second rough day since they launched in early January. Hopefully, they got that out of their system now.

Early DCR Selections went 3-7-1

Tightened Selections went 0-6-1 and had some awful luck…
W&M +7 pushes with a final of 70-63…in a game where W&M missed two layups in the final 8 seconds for the cover.
Wofford/Furman OV149 ends 147
Washington St/UCLA UN127 ended 128
Pacific/Boise OV149.5 was on a great pace and then stopped dead…ended 147

Late Releases did go 2-0, so that was a positive.

DCR Early Selections (103-83 NCAAB / 13-9 NBA / 2-0 NHL / 1-0 NFL)
Late Arrivals (16-15 NCAAB / 4-4 NBA)
Tightened Selections (10-12 NCAAB / 1-0 NBA / 1-0 NHL)
Late Releases (3-1 NCAAB)

Overall 154-124 for 55.4%

My Degenerate Parlay cashed on VTech, Iowa St and Montana St for 0.60 units which I will use for a rollover, possibly today.

The bonus Degenerate Club wager of 0.10 units on St. Mary’s +110 ended up coming back for a nice win. The 0.11 units will be added to the 0.60 units from the parlay for a total of 0.71 unit in the rollover!

On Twitter & Telegram, the Book Need on UCF lost and the public dog fade with St. Mary’s won.

Best content yesterday were the Late Releases (2-0) and the Public Dog Fades (2-0…Texas was the other dog fade and covered in the DCR report) .

Here’s to some DCR progression now that it got its losing day out of the day for the month of February!

Good luck!

bookmark_border**Public Concentrations in the NBA – Regression & Progression**

A lot of people have been commenting on how hot the public has been in the NBA with sides lately. The phenomenon is nothing earth shattering. A few weeks back I commented how COLD the public actually was betting sides in the NBA.

Why did the action all of a sudden spring back? Did I jinx it? Did I change the way I covered it? No, the rubberband got stretched so much against the public that it was statistically “due” to spring back in their favor. I reported on the incredible cold public run because it was so statistically out of whack from the norm…which then made it a high probability that a progression run for the public was coming.

If the long-term win percentage of something, in this case the public performance on NBA sides, is 48-52%, but at the current time they are hitting 30%…that means they are likely due for a hell of a run at some point. The problem casual bettors have is understanding that things progress and regress around long-term smoothed percentages. People see the public hitting 30% in the NBA and instead of thinking…this rubberband is pretty stretched out, the public is due for a big run to get back to the average 48-52% win percentage…they think…YEAH, I can get 70% winners by fading the public! Sorry, but that ship already sailed.

**If the public has 30 wins and 70 losses on NBA sides let’s say, for 30% winners…but their long-term win percentage is around 50%…they are likely due for a 70% or better run as they get back to around that 50%!**

It’s also why THE WORST thing you can do is follow someone on a lengthy hot streak. I know…it goes against everything you hold dear as a gambler. “This guy is 20-2 his last 22 bets…time to fucking UNLOAD on what he’s betting today!!!!” Um, no. Sure the run might continue, however the guy did not find the magic for betting sports and will win 80% consistently moving forward. Doesn’t mean he will be a long-term loser, or that his 23rd wager will lose, but it likely does mean a good losing run where he only hits 20-30% winners is coming around the next corner!

Just something to keep in mind as you watch public and sharp runs. They will not continue forever. A hot streak means that at the conclusion a likely cold streak will be coming. A cold streak means a hot streak will likely be coming up.

So often I will see TSP Live content go on a cold streak and people will step away from it. In the late stages (although, granted you never know what the late stages are when you are in it) of a cold streak, the last thing you want to do is stop. When you do then you aren’t there for the inevitable hot run that offsets all the cold and provides a profit! If you bet properly you can and will weather any cold streak. That’s the trick though, few bet properly and that is always their undoing.

TSP content will not win every month, but if you play the game of leaving when it is cold and trying to time when to get back in when it heats up…you will only find yourself being ground down as you can rarely time the turns perfectly. The best performers using TSP content are those which have a proper bankroll, a proper unit wager and don’t sweat the bad or overly celebrate the good. They are mechanical and ride the content up and down every month. Some months suck, some months are epic. Don’t try to time the turns…you will never get it right consistently enough.

TSP Live is a great example. Never had a losing year going back to paid content starting in 2019! You know how many people buy TSP Live, it has a bad month and so they are done. Then they watch the recaps the following month and see parlays hitting and a white hot month of content. These folks now get pissed they missed the hot run, then of course they come in and the hot run is now winding down and due for regression…so they get smacked again. You were there for the cold and none of the hot. Because you tried to time things, all you did was lose. While the bettor who just rode out the cold streak and was there to enjoy every bit of the hot streak is sitting with profits…you are sitting with losses. You know what I am talking about too. If you haven’t done it with TSP content you have done it elsewhere and you know how it works…or doesn’t.

Good luck!

bookmark_borderTSP Content Update – “If it’s not rated, it’s not graded!”

I cover A TON of different content and I know it is tough to keep track of it all…what is graded, what is logged, etc. I am going to give a try to a method that will have a simple slogan…you guessed it…

“If it’s not rated…it’s not graded!”

Meaning if the alert (public or subscriber) does not contain a unit rating, then it will not be tracked on a unit basis anywhere. There are only three exceptions to this…TSP Live Radar readings of 73 and below and Book Needs readings of 69 and below…because neither triggers alerts. Also, public concentrations will just be graded as 1 unit to measure public performance. Book Needs readings of 60-69 will be graded and logged, despite not triggering alerts. Everything else posted in TSP Live, Twitter and Telegram will show a unit rating (usually 1 unit because that’s how I log it right now anyway) if it is going to be graded. Should be very simple and really doesn’t change much. Most content right now is graded based on 1 unit. The addition of explicitly saying “1.00 units” in the alert itself just gives you the confirmation of what’s what.

Alerts to Twitter and Telegram will look like this…

===================================

💵Sharp Buy

Tampa Bay -5 (NFL)

Sharp money hit -4.5, line moved to -5…no action at -5 at this time.

Rating: 0.00 units

Remember, if it’s not rated…it’s not graded! At which point it is for informational & news material purposes only.😁

===================================

💵Sharp Buy

New England -8

Sharp money hit -7 and -8 within the past 30 minutes.

NFL

Rating: 1.00 units

Remember, if it’s not rated…it’s not graded! At which point it is for informational & news material purposes only.😁

===================================

The first alert above is telling you sharp money is betting Tampa and WOULD NOT be graded within TSP content logs/records because no unit rating exists (i.e. “0.00 units”). The second alert is telling you sharp money is betting New England -8 and would be graded and logged as sharp content because it contains a unit rating (i.e. “1.00 units”).

All alerts within TSP Live will also have a line showing the rating in the alert. As new alerts go out through TSP Live you will see this new section and it will be VERY easy to understand. I will be sure to discuss and point it out with every TSP Live alert that goes out in the near term so there is no confusion.

With the new system there should be no question then of what is going to be logged in the content logs and records tables and what is just being put out for information purposes and will not be logged.

Allows me a lot of reporting flexibility to get information out to you, at the same time it is clear to you what is tracked/logged and what is not.

A lot of updates will be going on the next week to streamline and optimize the content, I apologize if it gets a little hectic, but it really shouldn’t. The key is once this change is fully in place, it should be VERY EASY to follow along.

Feedback welcome! Could be an awful idea from your side of things so I welcome your thoughts.

Good luck!