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Click here for an explanation on Path Predictor charts
It is ALWAYS advised that you consult with a licensed financial professional before engaging in any trading activity. Anything contained within the FMA content should not be construed as financial advice.
Path Predictor's Momentum Indicator
The "Path Predictor" column shows the current trend momentum for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
The momentum indicator within Path Predictor is a great tool for identifying the current trend and major trend changes. So, when a trend shows as "UP", I tend to avoid bearish trades within the S&P 500 and instead look toward bullish trades. When the the trend is "DOWN", I will look to trade bearishly and avoid bullish trades.
When you see a trend change on the Path Predictor table, the signal tends to be early or late to catch the turn by 1-2 days. However, this 1-2 day delay or early arrival is rarely a problem because a major trend change will see the new trend run for days, weeks or months...providing room for error and plenty of potential return.
The "SPY Closing" is the price for the S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY) for the date listed in the "Date" column. Based on this closing price and other technicals, the "Path Predictor" column shows the current trend/momentum pattern. The "Change" column tracks the change in SPY from the previous day. Lastly, the "Technicals" column is how the algorithm calculates whether we are short term oversold, overbought or neutral. The goal of the "Technicals" column is to note short term extremes when the risk to reward to enter a trade could be at an extreme.
I will discuss the table and all its readings regularly in FMA alerts and what those readings mean for my personal trade assessment.
| Date | Momentum | SPY Closing | Change | Technicals | Position | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/4 | UP | 512.28 | - | - | ||
| 3/5 | UP | 507.15 | -1.00% | - | ||
| 3/6 | UP | 509.75 | 0.51% | - | ||
| 3/7 | UP | 514.6 | 0.95% | - | ||
| 3/8 | UP | 511.86 | -0.53% | - | ||
| 3/11 | UP | 511.32 | -0.11% | - | ||
| 3/12 | UP | 516.81 | 1.07% | - | ||
| 3/13 | UP | 516.01 | -0.15% | - | ||
| 3/14 | UP | 514.95 | -0.21% | - | ||
| 3/15 | UP | 509.83 | -0.99% | - | ||
| 3/18 | UP | 512.92 | 0.61% | - | ||
| 3/19 | UP | 515.71 | 0.54% | - | ||
| 3/20 | UP | 520.36 | 0.90% | - | ||
| 3/21 | UP | 522.11 | 0.34% | - | ||
| 3/22 | UP | 521.25 | -0.16% | - | ||
| 3/25 | UP | 519.8 | -0.28% | - | ||
| 3/26 | UP | 518.67 | -0.22% | - | ||
| 3/27 | UP | 523.17 | 0.87% | - | ||
| 3/28 | UP | 523.07 | -0.02% | - | ||
| 4/1 | UP | 522.2 | -0.17% | - | ||
| 4/2 | DOWN | 518.85 | -0.64% | - | ||
| 4/3 | DOWN | 519.41 | 0.11% | - | ||
| 4/4 | DOWN | 513.04 | -1.23% | - | ||
| 4/5 | DOWN | 518.41 | 1.05% | - | ||
| 4/8 | DOWN | 518.72 | 0.06% | - | ||
| 4/9 | DOWN | 519.32 | 0.12% | - | ||
| 4/10 | DOWN | 514.16 | -0.99% | - | ||
| 4/11 | DOWN | 518.05 | 0.76% | - | ||
| 4/12 | DOWN | 510.83 | -1.39% | - | ||
| 4/15 | DOWN | 504.49 | -1.24% | - | ||
| 4/16 | DOWN | 503.39 | -0.22% | - | ||
| 4/17 | DOWN | 500.51 | -0.57% | - | ||
| 4/18 | DOWN | 499.5 | -0.20% | - | ||
| 4/19 | DOWN | 495.18 | -0.86% | - | ||
| 4/22 | DOWN | 499.66 | 0.90% | - | ||
| 4/23 | DOWN | 505.65 | 1.20% | - | ||
| 4/24 | DOWN | 505.46 | -0.04% | - | ||
| 4/25 | DOWN | 503.44 | -0.40% | - | ||
| 4/26 | DOWN | 508.23 | 0.95% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 4/29 | DOWN | 510.05 | 0.36% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 4/30 | DOWN | 502.03 | -1.57% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/1 | DOWN | 500.25 | -0.35% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/2 | DOWN | 505 | 0.95% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/3 | DOWN - NEUTRAL | 511.29 | 1.25% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/6 | NEUTRAL | 516.58 | 1.03% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/7 | NEUTRAL | 517.2 | 0.12% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/8 | NEUTRAL | 517.2 | 0.00% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/9 | NEUTRAL | 520.16 | 0.57% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/10 | NEUTRAL | 520.83 | 0.13% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/13 | NEUTRAL | 520.95 | 0.02% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/14 | NEUTRAL | 523.23 | 0.44% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/15 | NEUTRAL | 529.79 | 1.25% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/16 | NEUTRAL | 528.66 | -0.21% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/17 | NEUTRAL | 529.43 | 0.15% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/20 | NEUTRAL | 530.08 | 0.12% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/21 | NEUTRAL | 531.31 | 0.23% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/22 | NEUTRAL | 529.84 | -0.28% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/23 | DOWN | 525.96 | -0.73% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/24 | DOWN | 529.44 | 0.66% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/28 | DOWN | 529.87 | 0.08% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/29 | DOWN | 526.23 | -0.69% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/30 | DOWN | 522.63 | -0.68% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 5/31 | DOWN | 527.33 | 0.90% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/3 | DOWN | 527.77 | 0.08% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/4 | DOWN | 528.38 | 0.12% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/5 | DOWN | 534.53 | 1.16% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/6 | DOWN | 534.63 | 0.02% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/7 | DOWN | 533.99 | -0.12% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/10 | DOWN | 535.66 | 0.31% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/11 | DOWN | 536.9 | 0.23% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/12 | DOWN | 541.3 | 0.82% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/13 | DOWN | 542.41 | 0.21% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/14 | DOWN | 542.73 | 0.06% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/17 | NEUTRAL | 547.05 | 0.80% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/18 | NEUTRAL | 548.49 | 0.26% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/20 | NEUTRAL | 546.95 | -0.28% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/21 | DOWN | 544.08 | -0.52% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/24 | DOWN | 542.63 | -0.27% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/25 | DOWN | 544.75 | 0.39% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/26 | DOWN | 545.52 | 0.14% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/27 | DOWN | 546.34 | 0.15% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 6/28 | DOWN | 544.22 | -0.39% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/1 | DOWN | 545.38 | 0.21% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/2 | DOWN | 549.01 | 0.67% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/3 | DOWN | 551.46 | 0.45% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/5 | DOWN | 554.64 | 0.58% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/8 | DOWN | 555.27 | 0.11% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/9 | DOWN | 555.86 | 0.11% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/10 | NEUTRAL | 561.26 | 0.97% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/11 | DOWN | 556.42 | -0.86% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/12 | DOWN | 559.89 | 0.62% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/15 | NEUTRAL | 561.49 | 0.29% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/16 | NEUTRAL | 564.76 | 0.58% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/17 | DOWN | 556.99 | -1.38% | OVERBOUGHT | ||
| 7/18 | DOWN | 552.68 | -0.77% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 552.42 | |
| 7/19 | DOWN | 548.94 | -0.68% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | 0.63% |
| 7/22 | DOWN | 554.67 | 1.04% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | -0.41% |
| 7/23 | DOWN | 553.78 | -0.16% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | -0.25% |
| 7/24 | DOWN | 541.39 | -2.24% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | 2.00% |
| 7/25 | DOWN | 538.32 | -0.57% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | 2.55% |
| 7/26 | DOWN | 544.07 | 1.07% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | 1.51% |
| 7/29 | DOWN | 544.74 | 0.12% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | 1.39% |
| 7/30 | DOWN | 542.07 | -0.49% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | 1.87% |
| 7/31 | DOWN | 550.45 | 1.55% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | 0.36% |
| 8/1 | DOWN | 543.05 | -1.34% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | 1.70% |
| 8/2 | DOWN | 532.9 | -1.87% | OVERBOUGHT | HOLDING SHORT | 3.53% |
| 8/5 | DOWN | 517.44 | -2.90% | NEUTRAL | HOLDING SHORT | 6.33% |
| 8/6 | DOWN | 522.21 | 0.92% | NEUTRAL | HOLDING SHORT | 5.47% |
| 8/7 | DOWN | 518.64 | -0.68% | NEUTRAL | HOLDING SHORT | 6.11% |
| 8/8 | DOWN | 530.8 | 2.34% | NEUTRAL | HOLDING SHORT | 3.91% |
| 8/9 | DOWN | 532.84 | 0.38% | NEUTRAL | HOLDING SHORT | 3.54% |
| 8/12 | DOWN | 533.24 | 0.08% | NEUTRAL | HOLDING SHORT | 3.47% |
| 8/13 | DOWN | 542.02 | 1.65% | NEUTRAL | HOLDING SHORT | 1.88% |
| 8/14 | DOWN | 540.18 | -0.34% | NEUTRAL | HOLDING SHORT | 2.22% |
| 8/15 | NEUTRAL | 553.1 | 2.39% | OVERBOUGHT | CLOSED SHORT | -0.12% |
| 8/16 | NEUTRAL | 554.23 | 0.20% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 8/19 | NEUTRAL | 559.53 | 0.96% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 8/20 | NEUTRAL | 558.67 | -0.15% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 8/21 | NEUTRAL | 560.62 | 0.35% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 8/22 | NEUTRAL | 556.29 | -0.77% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 8/23 | NEUTRAL | 562.08 | 1.04% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 8/26 | NEUTRAL | 560.76 | -0.23% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 8/27 | NEUTRAL | 561.46 | 0.12% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 8/28 | NEUTRAL | 558.31 | -0.56% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 8/29 | NEUTRAL | 558.48 | 0.03% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 8/30 | NEUTRAL | 563.68 | 0.93% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 9/3 | DOWN | 552.14 | -2.05% | OVERBOUGHT | - | - |
| 9/4 | DOWN | 550.78 | -0.25% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.52 | -0.05% |
| 9/5 | DOWN | 549.54 | -0.23% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.53 | 0.18% |
| 9/6 | DOWN | 540.43 | -1.66% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.54 | 1.83% |
| 9/9 | DOWN | 545.68 | 0.97% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.55 | 0.88% |
| 9/10 | DOWN | 548.78 | 0.57% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.56 | 0.32% |
| 9/11 | DOWN | 554.36 | 1.02% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.57 | -0.70% |
| 9/12 | DOWN | 558.88 | 0.82% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.58 | -1.52% |
| 9/13 | DOWN | 562.01 | 0.56% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.59 | -2.09% |
| 9/16 | DOWN | 562.86 | 0.15% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.60 | -2.24% |
| 9/17 | DOWN | 563.07 | 0.04% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.61 | -2.28% |
| 9/18 | DOWN | 561.36 | -0.30% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.62 | -1.97% |
| 9/19 | DOWN | 570.94 | 1.71% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.63 | -3.71% |
| 9/20 | DOWN | 568.25 | -0.47% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.64 | -3.22% |
| 9/23 | DOWN | 569.6 | 0.24% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.65 | -3.47% |
| 9/24 | DOWN | 571.3 | 0.30% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.66 | -3.77% |
| 9/25 | DOWN | 569.99 | -0.23% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.67 | -3.54% |
| 9/26 | DOWN | 572.33 | 0.41% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.68 | -3.96% |
| 9/27 | DOWN | 571.4 | -0.16% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.69 | -3.79% |
| 9/30 | DOWN | 573.76 | 0.41% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.70 | -4.22% |
| 10/1 | DOWN | 568.62 | -0.90% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.71 | -3.29% |
| 10/2 | DOWN | 568.86 | 0.04% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.72 | -3.33% |
| 10/3 | DOWN | 567.82 | -0.18% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.73 | -3.14% |
| 10/4 | DOWN | 572.98 | 0.91% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.74 | -4.08% |
| 10/7 | DOWN | 567.88 | -0.89% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.75 | -3.15% |
| 10/8 | DOWN | 573.14 | 0.93% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.76 | -4.11% |
| 10/9 | DOWN | 577.14 | 0.70% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.77 | -4.84% |
| 10/10 | DOWN | 576.13 | -0.18% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.78 | -4.65% |
| 10/11 | DOWN | 579.57 | 0.60% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.79 | -5.28% |
| 10/14 | DOWN | 584.29 | 0.81% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.80 | -6.13% |
| 10/15 | DOWN | 579.81 | -0.77% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.81 | -5.32% |
| 10/16 | DOWN | 582.25 | 0.42% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.82 | -5.76% |
| 10/17 | DOWN | 582.26 | 0.00% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.83 | -5.77% |
| 10/18 | DOWN | 584.57 | 0.40% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.84 | -6.19% |
| 10/21 | DOWN | 583.7 | -0.15% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.85 | -6.03% |
| 10/22 | DOWN | 583.29 | -0.07% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.86 | -5.95% |
| 10/23 | DOWN | 577.94 | -0.92% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.87 | -4.98% |
| 10/24 | DOWN | 579.24 | 0.22% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.88 | -5.22% |
| 10/25 | DOWN | 579.04 | -0.03% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.89 | -5.18% |
| 10/28 | DOWN | 580.81 | 0.31% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.90 | -5.50% |
| 10/29 | DOWN | 581.7 | 0.15% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.91 | -5.66% |
| 10/30 | DOWN | 580.03 | -0.29% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.92 | -5.36% |
| 10/31 | DOWN | 568.54 | -1.98% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.93 | -3.27% |
| 11/1 | DOWN | 571.02 | 0.44% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.94 | -3.72% |
| 11/4 | DOWN | 569.82 | -0.21% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.95 | -3.51% |
| 11/5 | DOWN | 576.69 | 1.21% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.96 | -4.75% |
| 11/6 | DOWN | 591.04 | 2.49% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.97 | -7.36% |
| 11/7 | DOWN | 595.61 | 0.77% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.98 | -8.19% |
| 11/8 | DOWN | 598.19 | 0.43% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.99 | -8.66% |
| 11/12 | DOWN | 596.88 | -0.22% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.100 | -8.42% |
| 11/13 | DOWN | 597.01 | 0.02% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.101 | -8.44% |
| 11/14 | DOWN | 593.42 | -0.60% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.102 | -7.79% |
| 11/15 | DOWN | 585.74 | -1.29% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.103 | -6.40% |
| 11/18 | DOWN | 588.13 | 0.41% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.104 | -6.83% |
| 11/19 | DOWN | 590.28 | 0.37% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.105 | -7.22% |
| 11/20 | DOWN | 590.5 | 0.04% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.106 | -7.26% |
| 11/21 | DOWN | 593.62 | 0.53% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.107 | -7.83% |
| 11/22 | DOWN | 595.49 | 0.32% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.108 | -8.17% |
| 11/25 | DOWN | 597.44 | 0.33% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.109 | -8.52% |
| 11/26 | DOWN | 600.75 | 0.55% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.110 | -9.12% |
| 11/27 | DOWN | 598.83 | -0.32% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.111 | -8.78% |
| 11/28 | DOWN | 602.55 | 0.62% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.112 | -9.45% |
| 12/2 | DOWN | 603.63 | 0.18% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.113 | -9.65% |
| 12/3 | DOWN | 603.81 | 0.03% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.114 | -9.68% |
| 12/4 | DOWN | 607.54 | 0.62% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.115 | -10.36% |
| 12/5 | DOWN | 606.61 | -0.15% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.116 | -10.19% |
| 12/6 | DOWN | 607.81 | 0.20% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.117 | -10.41% |
| 12/9 | DOWN | 604.52 | -0.54% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.118 | -9.81% |
| 12/10 | DOWN | 602.97 | -0.26% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.119 | -9.53% |
| 12/11 | DOWN | 607.5 | 0.75% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.120 | -10.35% |
| 12/12 | DOWN | 604.4 | -0.51% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.121 | -9.79% |
| 12/13 | DOWN | 604.22 | -0.03% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.122 | -9.75% |
| 12/16 | DOWN | 606.79 | 0.43% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.123 | -10.22% |
| 12/17 | DOWN | 604.29 | -0.41% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.124 | -9.77% |
| 12/18 | DOWN | 586.34 | -2.97% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.125 | -6.51% |
| 12/19 | DOWN | 586.31 | -0.01% | OVERBOUGHT | SHORT @ 550.126 | -6.50% |
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