Return to the Sports Dashboard – Click Here to Subscribe!
The KB Consensus is an evolution from the older analytic I used to cover known as the “Top Sharp Consensus”. The Top Sharp Consensus looked at what the Top 10 bettors in action at the book were betting…and looked for those situations when multiple bettors in the Top 10 were taking the same wager. Situations were strong performers, but rare when they occurred. The KB Consensus was a natural evolution of the Top Sharp Consensus analytic. The KB Consensus was shown to provide more angles AND to perform at a VERY HIGH level just like the Top Sharp Consensus.
The purpose of the KB (KB stands for “Known Bettor” a.k.a. a sharp bettor) Consensus table is to highlight wagers where a large percentage of sharp bettors are on one side of a wager versus the other side AND when those bettors are wagering above their average risk amount on that side or total.
How does the analytic work? It scans every active football market each week. The analytic then looks for markets meeting key betting volume levels and reports the percentage of sharp bettors on each side of the market. When there is a disparity where 60%+ of the sharp bettors in the market, and at the current price, are on one side of a wager versus the other, the wager will appear in the KB Consensus table.
As an example, let’s say the analytic is now scanning the spread market for LA Rams versus the NY Giants. The analytic will filter down the action to all the sharp bettors who currently have wagers within the spread market for the game. Now let’s say that “LA Rams SP” (SP = spread market) appears on the table with a KB Consensus reading of 72%. What that means is, of the sharp bettors who are actually betting the spread in the LAR/NYG game, 72% of them are betting the LA Rams, 28% are thereby betting the NY Giants. Of the 72% betting the Rams, a higher than normal number are betting above their average wager (the current wager they have placed is at least one standard deviation above their mean wager…no need to understand this…it is for the math nerds like me). Suffice it to say, it means these sharps are “going in” on the wager.
For a play to be considered KB Consensus and to trigger an alert, it needs to have a reading of 60% or higher. You will see KB Consensus angles hit the analytics table as soon as they achieve 60% of sharp bettors on one side of a wager. Wagers will remain on the table even if they drop below 60%. However, wagers below 60% do not yet have a sample size to warrant them as a long-term +EV angle…although they are still logged and tracked to build that sample size. So far, even those with readings below 60% have shown to be profitable.
For performance records, please visit https://tsp.live/sports-records/.
Return to the Sports Dashboard – Click Here to Subscribe!
ANALYTIC NOTICE: Analytics are provided to give you access to information that you otherwise would not be able to obtain publicly.
Analytics ARE NOT DESIGNED NOR INTENDED to tell you what to bet. Analytics are provided to make you a more informed bettor when handicapping and making your wagering decisions.
If you are placing a wager simply because the wager shows up within an analytic or alert, you are using the information incorrectly, outside its intended use, and opening yourself up to unnecessary risk.
While some analytics and information covers sharp action, it should be noted that sharp action can occur for many reasons beyond sharp money feeling a wager has value. Sharp bettors frequently wager for the purposes of middling, arbitrage, hedging, buyouts and more. Analytics do not discern why sharp money is betting, they just report that sharp money is betting. Just because something shows as “sharp” should not be construed as meaning the wager has value 100% of the time. A wager showing as sharp should also not be construed as a best bet, regardless of the reading within the analytic. The best sharp bettors have a win percentage of 54-56% (betting spreads), not the 60-100% that many touts and other unsavory sports gambling industry jerkoffs (technical term) may want to portray.
Good luck in your action!