I am going to discuss parlays and teasers more when it comes to using them during cold runs. I do use parlays and teasers during hot runs, but that’s pretty easy to understand…when it’s hot…parlays and teasers will provide nice returns. However, when it is cold, why would they be beneficial?
The following is just my two cents on the topics. Everyone is different. You may not agree with my thoughts on any subject, and that’s all good, but don’t expect me to change my idea on them. My ideas have been honed through my personal wagering and success over the past 25+ years…I am likely not changing.
I am a big proponent of the use of parlays in my wagering strategy. I won’t rehash what I said in previous articles I wrote like Parlays – A Strategic Betting Tool or Parlays Aren’t Just For Suckers Anymore. If you are interested you can take a deep dive into those articles, including getting a look at the math behind parlays, by clicking the links above.
For me personally, I use parlays on an almost daily basis. I may not fire them for 1 unit every time, but I like to use them because it allows me versatility in my wagering. I can secure 1,2,3+ wagers at prices I like early in the day (or week), especially if the selections don’t yet warrant 1 unit straight wagers for me.
I like using parlays during a cold streak because when content turns it tends to be a sharp positive turn. The higher the win percentage of the content being used in the parlay, the greater your edge and ROI in a parlay.
Another reason I like parlays when it is cold is because it minimizes my risk, while still giving me action. If it’s a good day of content in the cold, I can often see a nice return on that low risk. If it remains icy, I likely limited my risk dramatically by betting one three leg parlay for 1 unit instead of three 1.1 unit straight bets.
Like parlays, teasers in a hot run are obviously going to perform great and will only further expand your win percentage as you get extra points. I find teasers can be helpful in a losing run because often the losses on sharp action are by a thin margin in a losing run. Think of all those cold days you have had…how many times would you lose a bet by a point…or worse…by the hook?!? You know that torture…and you always lose a tight one when you need that win the most! Of course not every loss in a cold streak is tight to the price, but more of your losses tend to be by tight margins than large ones.
Using teasers in your wagering during a cold streak will help to minimize losses (one teaser for 1 unit instead of 2 or 3 straight bets for 1.1 unit each). Plus by using a teaser the extra points sometimes will turn what would have been a straight bet loser into a teaser winner!
My one overlying strategy that I use with teasers, whether doing them in a hot run or a cold run, is as follows…
DO NOT BET A TEASER BASED ON WHAT THE TEASED POINT SPREAD WILL BE. BET A TEASER BECAUSE YOU LIKE THE BET AS IT IS AT THE CURRENT SPREAD.
So, if I like the Miami Dolphins -10, and would be open to betting Miami -10, then taking Miami in a teaser would be an optimal bet for me.
If I did not like Miami -10, but I do like them -4 in a 6 point teaser (hence why I might decide to use them in a teaser), I SHOULD NOT BET THEM IN A TEASER FOR THIS REASON.
Only bet games in teasers if you like them at the current spread. Don’t make teaser decisions based on the adjusted spread you would get in a teaser. I know, it runs counter to what many people might say and how most novice bettors look at teasers. However, it was a lesson my betting Yoda taught me and I see the value to it all the time.
If you are taking a teaser to get a spread from a price you don’t like to a price you like…that’s not good. If you are taking a teaser to get a price you like to an even better price…now we are cooking!
How do I feel about Wong teasers? I think the books have caught up and they move prices to screw and minimize the edge of Wong players now. So, I don’t pay them much mind nor do I get concerned with this angle in my teaser assessment.
I will tend to avoid crossing zero on a teaser (i.e. Taking Tampa Bay -3 and teasing them to +3), teasing college totals, or doing basketball teasers. Emphasis is on “tend to” in the previous sentence. It is not “always”. There will be times I cross zero despite the lower value…or I will tease basketball…or I will tease college totals. It’s just that all those occasions will be relatively rare…just not non-existent.