(Originally appeared in TSP Live Insider – June 27th)
I hear it all the time…
“Sharps don’t bet lines that high.”
“Sharps would never touch a -300 favorite.”
Let me be crystal clear:
Both of those statements are completely false.
There is no such thing as a line that’s “too high” for sharp bettors—as long as there’s value.
🔍 Case in Point: Canada in the Gold Cup
Let’s look at early sharp buying in the CONCACAF Gold Cup:
- Canada opened at -500
- Sharps pushed the line up to -800
Now, imagine I reported this as a standard sharp buy outside the context of this article. I guarantee I’d get emails:
“No way sharp money bets -500!”
But I have to ask… why not?!
🧠 It’s All About Value, Not the Number
The usual pushback sounds like this:
“Sharps can’t win long-term betting -500 juice.”
That kind of thinking shows the person simply doesn’t understand value betting.
Here’s the math that matters:
- Let’s say -800 is fair value (an 88.89% implied probability)
- The book is offering -500 (an 83.33% implied probability)
- That’s a 5.56% edge in your favor
If that edge is real, and your valuation is sound, then…
🎯 It is mathematically impossible to lose long-term
betting -500 when the true price should be -800
💼 How Can You Trust the Sharp’s Valuation?
Fair question.
If the book itself rates the bettor as sharp, it means that bettor has a proven track record of identifying value. So yes—there’s a very real chance their pricing is correct.
Remember: sharps don’t care about narratives or round numbers. They care about edges—whether it’s +110 or -500.
🥊 Remember Mayweather vs. McGregor?
This is one of the most famous examples:
- The public went wild for McGregor. The line stayed around Mayweather -500 to -550
- Meanwhile, informed bettors were pricing Mayweather between -1500 and -2500
That made -500 a screaming value. And yes, sharps hammered it.
Sure, when you lose a -500 wager, it stings. But if you’re consistently betting -500 prices that should be -2500, then…
The occasional loss is just giving back a sliver of your profits.
💡 Final Takeaway
Don’t fall into the trap of thinking there’s a “line too high” for sharp money.
If it’s a value, sharps will bet it. Period.
Whether it’s -110 or -800, sharp bettors are playing the long game of ROI, not clinging to outdated myths.
Wishing you sharp eyes, steady hands, and good luck in your action! ⚡