TSP Live Education: Utilizing The Sharp Plays Index

Part I (originally published on 5/12/23 as a TSP Live Insider article)

My discussion much of this week was about knowing what type of market you are in…and betting accordingly. To quickly recap, I stated there are three types of betting market environments. I discussed these three betting environments using a time period of monthly (i.e. good/bad/even months), but really they can be used for any time period or league/sport to describe performance. The three types of environments are simple…

  1. Strong winning
  2. Deep losing
  3. Flat (these are the periods/leagues up a little, down a little or truly “flat” at break-even)

It’s important to note that not every league/sport may be in the same environment at the same time. We have seen where many (perhaps most) months which have sports/leagues in ALL THREE of the categories above. Some league is killing it in a given month, some league is the exact opposite in a given month and all the other leagues are in between…grinding up or down. Sometimes it’s just a #1, #2 or #3 month overall across all sports. Whatever the case, know where you are on both a macro (month/quarter overall and by league/sport) and micro (weekly/multi-week overall and by league/sport).

I discussed in the Degenerate Club Reports this week how to handle these environments and what to be aware of for your betting. Is there a way to predict where we are in a cycle? Nothing is perfect, but there is definitely a tool which will help. Let me introduce you to The Sharp Plays Index (click here and can also be found in TheSharpPlays.com website menu).

The Sharp Plays Index is a pretty simple tool which looks at all the betting activity from public rated accounts and all the betting activity from sharp rated accounts…by individual sport and across the whole market…and assesses the performance.

When a market sees a lot of public strength and sharp weakness, it will tend to dip down to 0.8 to 1.1 for a low. When a market sees a lot of sharp strength and public weakness, it tends to run up to 2.9 to 3.5 on the TSP Index. So, how can we use this?

If you look at the TSP Index through the link above, you will see soccer is running the hottest. Should be no shock if you have paid attention to the soccer intel. However, we should be aware that because this is usually the high-end (2.9 to 3.5) of how hot sharps get that a turn could be coming in soccer. So, I will keep betting soccer, but I will be cautious that if soccer starts to turn. I won’t assume we remain in a printing money atmosphere for soccer because we could be due for regression…given how high it is on the Index. Conversely, I see NBA got as low as 0.5 and has been trending up. I am expecting some public regression given how hot the public has been (13-2-1 ATS on favorites…although not every favorite was a public play, but 90% were). So, perhaps this upward momentum in NBA is a sign that some progression is coming for sharp money…and maybe for the dogs too.

What about the sports markets overall? Are they too hot and nearing a possible turn/regression or are they a little chilly and about to warm up? Take a look at the “TSP-I” line on the chart. The TSP-I line takes into account all the sports you see on the chart AND every other sport/event that the book accepts wagers on and it assesses the overall sharp to public performance. I have also recently added a 5 day moving average, “TSP-I 5-SMA” to help show where the momentum is. When the TSP-I is above the moving average, it means sharps are on a little run. When the TSP-I is below the moving average line, it means the public is picking up steam and sharps are struggling.

Like any technical analysis tool used for the financial markets, The Sharp Plays Index is back looking and not forward predicting. However, by knowing where we have been and the current trajectory and location on the table, we can get a better idea of where we are headed…compared to just flipping a coin or guessing. If it’s been a hot run in something or overall, check the chart to see if we are at 2.0…meaning there is more room to keep running before we get into the danger zone of being too hot (2.9 to 3.5)…and should be cautious of a turn coming.

So, I don’t make any money out of pointing you to The Sharp Plays Index and it is a free tool that anyone visiting TheSharpPlays.com can access. So, I am not promoting the TSP Index here for some self-serving purpose or so you see ads on that page (I don’t accept advertising). I am letting you know about this tool simply because it is overlooked or not known by so many bettors. Be sure to bookmark the page. The link for the Index can also be found anytime on the TSP Live Dashboard Quick Links menu. The TSP Live Dashboard is accessible through the front page and website menu at TSP.Live…or the direct link at https://tsp.live/tsp-live-alerts/.

Like anything, the TSP Index is not some Holy Grail that will guarantee success. However, if you are having trouble checking the temperature of a current market or overall, be sure to stop by TheSharpPlays.com and check out the TSP Index to see how things are trending and where they stand!

Part II (originally published on 6/12/23 as a TSP Live Insider article)

The premise of what I covered in Part I was using the TSP Index in conjunction with the moving average to find turns in the market…when to be aggressive and when to be passive in your betting. If you are unfamiliar with the TSP Index, you can visit it by clicking here.

This past week we had a crossover of the TSP Index and the TSP Index’s 5 day moving average. What the hell does that mean? When the “TSP-I” line is above the “TSP-I 5-SMA”, it is a signal that the market is trending to the sharp money and against the public. When the “TSP-I” line is below the “TSP-I 5-SMA” line it signifies that the public is outperforming and sharp money is underperforming.

Of course, nothing is some voodoo magic where as soon as the TSP-I line moves above the moving average that the content will be 75-0 on angles reported each day and when below the line the angles will be 0-75. It’s just that, as followers of the Index since 2019 know, it can definitely tell you where you are in the sharp and public cycle. The past week, as covered in the DCR, the TSP-I line moved above the 5 day moving average. When it did, the content has outperformed each day since that time. It’s effectively been a positive grind. I’ll keep rolling until that one day comes and the “TSP-I” dips below the “TSP-I 5-SMA”. The dip below the 5 day moving average will be the canary in the coal mine that I should watch my betting because there is a change in the momentum.

Regardless of what people may think, sharp money grinds profits, not through consistent printing of money, but through periods of progression (winning runs) and regression (losing runs). The catch is that the progression runs are usually just a little longer and a little stronger than the regression runs…and that’s where the profit is made.

Conversely, regardless of what people think of the public, the public also goes through periods of progression runs (winning runs) and regression runs (losing runs). The catch for the public bettor is the regression runs are usually a little longer and stronger (especially stronger because the public presses and chases when losing…something sharp bettors avoid) than the progression runs.

There you go, those two paragraphs are 100% the two sides of the betting markets. The sharps win a little more than they lose…but they still lose…and badly sometimes. The public loses a little more than they win…but they still win…sometimes going on incredibly white hot runs as we see from time to time. As such, whether a public bettor or a sharp bettor, it’s all about riding the waves. The goal of the TSP Index is to be alerted to a change in the tide, help identify the waves, and identify who is riding the at any given time. I give you, The Sharp Plays Index!

I could write a thesis about the TSP Index. It is one of my favorite tools and I use it on a daily basis. The previous article which I provided a link to above will help to bring you up to speed. The main purpose of today’s update was simply to note that the “TSP-I” line is above the “TSP-I 5-SMA” line which means I am planning to bet normal as the sharp bettors are in control right now. When the TSP I moves below the TSP-I 5-SMA…I am still open to betting but I will get VERY PASSIVE and cautious with my betting. If you read the article I linked above, you will also see how you can know when the public or the sharp money is getting too hot or cold and a trend change is likely. Then you can use the moving average crossover (discussed here) to add confirmation that the turn has arrived. Nothing is perfect, but for those who religiously use the TSP Index on a daily basis, it is a tool they never want to see go away. It takes two seconds to check it out each day…it’s worth the time.

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day and good luck in your action!