March Madness has brought in a variety of new followers to The Sharp Plays and subscribers to TSP Live…and with it…a lot of the old questions are popping up. Should I bet all the sharp buys? Should I only wager on the Algorithm Selections? Are the TSP Live or GFAW Portfolios for me?
Let’s dive in…
My goal at The Sharp Plays is to provide you intel throughout the day…reporting sharp and group buying, value detected by algorithms, specific know bettors, intel from traders at the book, and a lot more. Many new subscribers come into TSP Live after having subscribed to handicappers or services where the entirety of the content provided is… “5 units on Minnesota -1, 3 units on Texas -5, 2 units on Alabama +6. Good luck!“
The Sharp Plays (“TSP”) is very different. TSP provides you information from inside two global sportsbooks as a way to educate you on action behind the scenes that you otherwise would not have access. Sure, if you bet every single thing labeled as sharp or a group buy, regardless of size, you will likely end the year with a profit. However, there will be A LOT of wild swings throughout the year…swings which most gamblers could not handle. It would not be unusual for you to be +40 units at one point in the year by betting EVERYTHING, and then down -60 units at another point, to finish at +50 units by the end of the year. Hence why I emphasize that blind following everything IS NOT the optimal way to use the content. It may win, but few gamblers have the fortitude to ride it for the long-term, which is essential to see reap the dividends from the strategy.
The are three types of content delivered throughout The Sharp Plays (free and paid content)…
- Content which is logged and/or graded: The logged and graded content comprises 20% of all the content…both subscription based and free. Graded content includes things like Group Buys, Book Positions, Algorithm Selections, TSP Live Radar angles, KB Consensus, Book Needs, specific “known” bettor action (like the NBA bettor I tracked the last two seasons) and more. How will you know if some content is logged and/or graded…
- I will state that something is being “logged and/or graded” right next to the content…“Large Group Buy on Alabama +6 (logged and recorded as a Group Buy)”.
- Content highlighted in green boxes in TSP Live alerts are there to let you know something is logged and graded. Anything in a box with green background will be logged and graded…and how it will be logged and graded will be very apparent in the text within the green box.
- The content carries a unit rating (i.e. TSP Live and GFAW Portfolios). Anything like “0.1 units on Ole Miss -7” or “1.1 units on Alabama -18” is something that will be logged and recorded because it has a unit rating.
- The content carries a record with its release. Perfect example is the Go Fast and Win Score Prediction analytic where the current record and performance is right in the table itself.
- I will state that something is being “logged and/or graded” right next to the content…“Large Group Buy on Alabama +6 (logged and recorded as a Group Buy)”.
- Portfolios: The content in both the TSP Live Degenerate Portfolio and the Go Fast and Win Portfolio is within the 20% of logged and graded content, but it’s purposes is to provide more than just the intel value gained through angles like Algorithm Selections or TSP Live Radar. Portfolios DO NOT operate like a standard bankroll. In a standard bankroll you have 100 units and you fire 1 unit bets each day/week to grow that bankroll. The fact you have 100 units in the reserve in a standard bankroll allows you to be aggressive right out of the gate if you want. With the Portfolios, they start each year at +0.0 units, assume very limited bankroll, and are trying to use small highly leveraged wagers (i.e. parlays and rollovers) to build a bankroll of house money before getting aggressive. It takes time and a lot of patience. The goal of the strategy is to teach a variety of wagering lessons to gamblers. First, the portfolios provide almost daily action, are perfect so far in ending the year with a profit, and novice bettors can use the exact unit risk I have listed as they learn the long-term nature of sports betting success combined with unique daily strategies to achieve it.
Last year the TSP Live Degenerate Portfolio started at +0.0 units on January 1st, 2023 and closed at +12.24 units on December 31st, 2023 using an average bet of just 0.20 units. However, it was not an immediate road to profits. The TSP Live Portfolio was -1.49 units through June 24th, 2023…despite ending at +12.24 units by the end of the year. Veteran bettors using a 5X multiple (rookie and intermediate bettors are advised not to use a multiple) turned a profit of +61.2 units solely using the TSP Live Degenerate Portfolio…and that return does not include any other content performance!
The Portfolios sound great…and they are…plus they provide easy to follow wagering action…HOWEVER, using the Portfolios is a test of patience given the wagering style. Those who did not give up on the TSP Live Portfolio last year, even when it was -1.49 units deep into June, were handsomely rewarded by the end of the year! The Go Fast and Win Portfolio is working on house money right now…hence it’s ability to fire regular 0.22 unit straight bets, sometimes multiple times in a day…versus being more parlay and rollover centric like the TSP Live Portfolio. - Everything Else: By far the largest content category is “Everything Else”. Over 80% of the information put out at The Sharp Plays is not logged nor graded and the content is simply put out as intel to assist with handicapping. Things like the early sharp buys on Telegram, sharp reports on Twitter or Telegram throughout the day, general commentary and analysis, etc. If it doesn’t have a unit rating, is not labeled as being “logged and/or graded, nor does it have a record of performance with its release…then it is “Everything Else”. The issue for some followers is they treat the “Everything Else” just like the Portfolio content or the logged and graded content. Again, it will likely win at the end of the year, but there will be a lot of 0-10 runs and 10-0 runs along the way. We all handle the 10-0 runs, people shit themselves on the 0-10 runs. Blind following the “Everything Else” content is for only the most advanced and veteran gamblers…I don’t even do it myself. I will use the “Everything Else” information in my handicapping, often as a filter for plays I like, but that is the extent of it.
I do not believe any bit of content put out is a “blind follow”…regardless of how good the record might be. If you are just looking to blindly follow someone and hope to be a long-term profitable gambler…that’s likely not going to work. Eventually that person stops doing what they are doing or retires and you are left with no source of information AND no strategy of your own to be able to wager effectively by yourself or with new data.
What’s the best way to use the content? It varies by bettor. Some people HATE parlays and rollovers…so they don’t really mess with the portfolio action. Instead they just play the “logged and/or graded” content. It’s usually only 1-2 wagers a day and it has a profitable performance…simply. Other bettors like to bet both the TSP Live and Go Fast and Win Portfolio action, PLUS the Algorithm Selections, AND they handicap games on their own using sharp buy and other information provided through The Sharp Plays content. Some bettors subscribe to TSP Live and other information providers and compare content between all the information they get to derive selections. Other bettors use the information within their handicapping to come up with their own plays. There is no right or wrong answer, it’s just a bettor’s preference. Not sure what your preference is? Start slow. Pick one thing to follow like the Algorithm Selections which are the main source of graded NCAAB content and then expand from there. Maybe it is football season, just follow the KB Consensus and that’s it until you get a feel for things. As you become versed on the content as a whole, you will see how easy it is to develop a strategy for using it.
If you are new to The Sharp Plays or TSP Live subscriber content, visit the TSP Live Dashboard (link is “Sports Dashboard” in the website menu) and take some time to visit the links on the Dashboard to familiarize yourself with what’s out there. I know I type a lot, but read the TSP Live alerts IN FULL when they are issued. After a bit you will get a feel for what you can skim and what you should read slowly. Feel free to drop me a message(s) with questions. I can’t tell you how many times I get a message basically saying “I have no idea what the hell to do!” At which point I walk someone through the content in a concise manner and those brief exchanges usually end with the subscriber having a fresh view on how to use the content. How can you reach out to me? You can send a message through Telegram (t.me/TheSharpPlays), email (click here to send a message), or DM me on Twitter/X (although I get so slammed with messages on Twitter it is best to message on Telegram and/or email).
Thanks for following and for your support! Always here to answer any questions! The Madness of March is just beginning!
Good luck!