Every now and then, the public goes on a tear in sports betting. While their losing streaks are typically longer—and far more brutal—sometimes, the public hits big.
In fact, the last time we saw a public run of this magnitude was way back in 2005 during the NFL season. And now, 19 years later, we’re staring down another monster streak. If the public cashes again this week, it could become the most profitable public run in modern betting history—an all-timer.
🤔 Did the Public Suddenly Get Smarter?
Short answer: No chance.
People asked the same question back in 2005. “Has the public evolved?” they said. “Is this the information age catching up with the books?”
And yet, since then, sportsbooks have made billions and billions of dollars.
Let’s look at the data:
| Year | Public Win % (Point Spreads) |
|---|---|
| 1997 | 49.9% |
| 2023 | 50.2% |
That’s a 0.3% improvement in 26 years—despite technology, the internet, betting content, and analytics exploding. Public bettors need to hit 52.4% just to break even. At this rate, they’ll hit profitability in the year 2149 😂.
📉 A Look at the Extremes
- Best Year for the Public: 2005 at 51.1%
- Worst Year: 2008 at 48.7% (yep, right after the 2005 run)
So what does this tell us? That public success is cyclical and rare. These winning runs are statistical anomalies, not the norm. But “rare” ≠ “never.”
You’re witnessing one of those rare, epic runs right now.
🔁 So, What Happens Next?
If history repeats itself—and it usually does—the public is due to give it all back. The question is when, not if.
So how can you capitalize?
📌 Strategy 1: Target Book Needs
If the public is going to start hemorrhaging units, books will have to win their biggest decisions. This means paying attention to Book Needs—those matchups where the public is heavy on one side and the sportsbook needs the opposite result.
📌 Strategy 2: Look for Book Need + Sharp Buy Combos
For added confidence, filter your Book Need targets with the presence of sharp money on the same side.
Public on one side.
Sharp money and the book on the other.
That’s a bet worth taking.
🧠 But Timing Is Everything
While fading the public sounds easy, starting too early can be costly.
We look for signs of a turn. One of the best indicators? A wire-to-wire beating on a public-heavy game.
Take this recent example:
🐬 Dolphins vs Rams
Prior to the game, I said:
“If this is the turn, it would be a great result for the book given the volume on the Rams if Miami gets a wire-to-wire win.”
Result?
- Miami 1Q Spread ✅
- Miami 1Q Moneyline ✅
- Miami 1H Spread ✅
- Miami 1H Moneyline ✅
- Miami Full Game Spread ✅
- Miami Full Game Moneyline ✅
Textbook public beatdown. The books needed Miami—and got everything.
🕵️♂️ Clues from History
- If the public cashes again next week, we may witness the biggest public run in 30+ years.
- If not, this week could mark the turning point—the one where sharp bettors step in and fade the inflated lines.
- If you’re going to fade the public, this might be your ideal window.
📊 Your Game Plan Going Forward
- Watch Book Needs every week
- Prioritize Book Need + Sharp Buy combo angles
- Consider underdog moneylines during public regression
- Look for wire-to-wire wins on the book side as signs of a shift
- Don’t rush—wait for the turn, then pounce
🎯 Final Thoughts
The public isn’t smarter—they’re lucky right now. And when this anomaly ends, they’ll give it all back and then some, just like they always do.
“Fade the public” isn’t just a catchphrase—it’s a time-tested strategy when done strategically, not emotionally.
Thank you for reading. Let’s stay sharp, patient, and tactical as the NFL season unfolds.
Good luck! 🍀
—TSP