The public has epic runs all the time; it’s just that their losing runs tend to be longer and more epic than any of their winning runs. However, from time to time, the public gets a BIG ONE! The “big ones” do not happen often though. The last “big one” for the public, that achieved the current level of performance was back in 2005 when the public just printed money in the NFL from the start of October and into November. Well, this current season…19 years later…the public is on another printing money run in the NFL that has equaled the 2005. If the public can cash again this week…it will eclipse the 2005 run and potentially be an “all-timer”.
The question people will ask is…did the public get smarter? Well, back in 2005, people asked the same question. People thought that computers, the Internet and the free flow of volumes of information on the games would make for smarter bettors. Did it? Well, since then the sportsbooks have made BILLIONS and BILLIONS and BILLIONS…so I would say that is not the case. For those who think this is now the time when the public has figured it out…I will say the same thing I said back then…NO CHANCE!
Diving into my sportsbooks records from my first year in the industry (1997), I see that point spread wagers placed by bettors rated as “casual” a.k.a. public bettors, cashed at 49.9%. Last year (2023), wagers placed by bettors classified as public/casual, cashed at 50.2%. So, in that way, over 26 years and despite all the technological advances, computer software, artificial intelligence, proliferation of sports services and sports gambling media, exponential expansion of the Internet and flow of information…public bettors have increased their performance by 0.3%. So, yes…the public has gotten bettor (in theory…because this win percentage will vary year to year), however the public needs to hit a minimum of 52.4% to turn a profit betting point spreads…still a touch off! LOL
At the current rate of performance increase, the public will achieve 52.4% in 125 years or 2149.
Best public performance since 1997 was in 2005…yes, that epic year when the public cashed at a rate of 51.1% across all sports and all point spreads. So, the public still lost overall since they need 52.4%, but the power they had in NFL pulled them up, along with success in NBA that year.
Worst public performance since 1997 was in 2008…yes…the year after the epic public run in 2005…can you say “regression”? In 2008, the public cashed at 48.7%.
Since 1997 the public win percentage each year has bounced between 51.1% and 48.7%.
Statistically, even in random environments…which is what public betting performance is, there will be statistical anomalies which veer way outside the normal variance. Epic public runs are these anomalies. What makes an “anomaly” and anomaly is the fact that they are RARE…but they happen. It is important to understand that “rare” is not the same as “never”. You are seeing a major anomaly right now…19 years after the last major one.
So, now that we accept that the public is on a run, albeit an ultra epic run, but that we also accept that the public will inevitably give it all back and then some…like they always have since the beginning of gambling back in roughly 3000 BCE…what strategy can we implement to take advantage of the expected and upcoming public regression run???
Well, there are some basics…
First, we will want to see what teams in the NFL the book needs to win/cover each week. If the public is going to lose and the books are going to get their money back, these “needs” will be the key wins the book has to get to see a momentum change.
Second, an added filter if you don’t like the idea of just blind betting Book Needs as a strategy for betting public regression would be to target angles where there is not just a book need, but where sharp money agrees with the book need.
Sounds easy enough because what to bet during public regression is pretty simple…FADE THE PUBLIC! The hard part is knowing the timing of when to begin such an attack strategy. While we cannot predict the future…and that’s why gambling exists…we can look for hints at a turn. What does these hints look like?
Well, yesterday, prior to the Monday Night Football game, I discussed in a TSP Live alert the following…
Since the public prefers favorites over dogs. Since the public likes the flashy teams over the underperforming teams (like Miami) you would assume the public is going to go in on the LA Rams…and so far that’s EXACTLY what they are doing…spread, moneyline, 1st Quarter, 1st Half, etc. It’s why you see this price was Miami +1 not that long ago, and now some books are up to +3…without any counter move in sight. You also see Miami was not on the Book Needs table all week and has now shown up there. It could be the sharps haven’t arrived yet because why not just sit back and let this price run to +3 around the whole market, let the highest limits hit, and then take Miami. and maybe get a very juicy +3.
None of this means the public’s hot run doesn’t continue, but the run is closer to the end than the beginning. So, I will take some shots here and there to try and get the turn and catch the run. There is no guarantee the public gets crushed tonight BUT it would be a great result for the book given the volume on the LA Rams if this was the one game that the book got beginning to end (1st Quarter, 1st Half, Spread, Moneyline, etc) and that means a Miami wire to wire outright win. Can they do it?!?!? Can the Dolphins make the day and put a cherry on top to what is only a slight profit for the books on the week? If they don’t some books will have a negative week in NFL…again.
The answer to the above was “yes”! Also, take note of the underlined sections…(1) the run is closer to the end than the beginning, (2) if this is the turn “it would be a great result for the book given the volume on the LA Rams if this was the one game that the book got beginning to end (1st Quarter, 1st Half, Spread, Moneyline, etc) and that means a Miami wire to wire outright win“. In the end, the books got the wire to wire outright Miami victory…
Miami 1Q Spread ✅
Miami 1Q Moneyline ✅
Miami 1H Spread ✅
Miami 1H Moneyline ✅
Miami Game Spread ✅
Miami Game Moneyline ✅
So, that’s what the turn tends to begin with…a good wire to wire beating on a major public play. Any other hints that a turn is upon us?
We can also look to past performance to gauge timing. If this week goes the way of the public then it will make this run the biggest public run in perhaps 30 years or more…since the only comparable run I have seen was in 2005 and my data goes back to 1995 (I got into the industry in 1997, but saved book data from 1995). So, if we assume the public won’t break the 2005 record…then this is the week to take a shot on public regression and likely look to target the public fade…and perhaps some of those fades, when targeting underdogs, by using the moneyline too!
We will see if the public breaks a record, but if they do not and this week provides some regression, then in the weeks ahead I will be looking hard at those Book Needs, and especially the Book Need + Sharp Buy combo bets!
Thanks for giving this article a read!
Good luck!