Many people misunderstand betting ROI and ROR. Recently, I mentioned that the TSP Portfolio had an ROR of +5.6% for the football season. Some assume that means if you have a $10,000 bankroll, you made $560. Thatâs far from accurate.
In professional gambling, two key return metrics define a bettorâs quality:
1ď¸âŁ Return on Risk (ROR): This measures profit relative to every dollar or unit riskedânot your bankroll.
2ď¸âŁ Bankroll ROI: This calculates profit against your total bankroll.
The difference is significant. For example, the TSP Portfolioâs 2024 ROR is +8.54%, meaning for every $1 wagered, the return is $0.0854 in profit. It might not seem like much, but itâs how a casino operates.
Consider roulette: The house edge in American roulette (with two zeros) is just 5.26%. That means for every $1 you bet, the casino grinds away $0.0526 over time. That steady ânickel per dollarâ loss is why players eventually go broke. You donât lose just 5.26% of your buy-in after an hour of playâyouâre often completely wiped out.
The same math applies to winning bettorsâjust in reverse. Instead of losing to the house, you’re the one grinding out profits over time.
TSP Portfolio currently has a total bankroll gain of +87.3% (units) off an +8.54% ROR per wager.
So, if you have a $500,000 bankroll, meaning an average wager of $5,000, you made $436,500 (+87.3% bankroll ROI) this year…and $1,743,500 since January 1st, 2023…with no thinking…in exchange for $6 or less per day! Oh wait…you bet $10,000 per wager? You made $873,000 this year…and $3,487,000 since January 1st, 2023. See how a “little” +8.54% return on risk adds up to a sizable bankroll gain?
Do you now see why ChatGPT says anyone with a return on risk (ROR) of +5% or more is “exceptional”? The numbers and logs of every wager do not lie…the math tells the story…check it all out for yourself at TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/.
My goal isn’t to convince the idiots in the audience that the TSP Portfolio is good…it’s to show those of you interested in learning how what seem to be very small return on risk (ROR) percentages….like even the 1-2% that ChatGPT states most professional sports bettors achieve…may seem small but the profits add up when grinding that return on every single dollar/unit wagered/risked.
It all seems so easy, what’s the catch?!?!? Oh, it’s a big one…YOU ARE THE CATCH! Those of you who shit your pants when the TSP Portfolio is on a 2-13 run…or is 0-20 it’s last 20 wagers…and forget all the past performance leading up to that run. Those of you who can’t wait for the hot streak to come, so you press and chase aggressively in a cold streak and destroy your bankroll. Why? Lack of patience! Do you see why I preach patience every day?!? If you could just bet like a robot, not be a sniveling baby during EVERY COLD STREAK or individual loss…and just ride the ups and downs, the above math shows the pot of gold at the end of the patience tunnel. It’s just so many of you will never survive the patience journey!
Just because TSP Portfolio has great performance numbers does not mean you won’t have PLENTY of ice cold runs throughout the year. Statistically, you should have 2 cold runs on average per month!! If you could just be patient during those cold runs…they are always offset by the eventual hot runs. If only more people had patience in gambling they would see the power of the above math…and might chill out a little when wagering.
Good luck!