Some people have a misconception about betting ROI. Recently, I discussed how the TSP Portfolio had an ROI of +5.6% for the football season. People tend to think that means if you have a $10,000 bankroll that you made $560 this football season. It is the furthest thing from accurate.
In betting you have two important ROI’s that measure your quality. You have the “wager” ROI, which refers to the return on every dollar or unit RISKED. That’s a big difference from the other important ROI, which is your “bankroll” ROI. Bankroll ROI is simply your profit against your total bankroll. Here’s how dramatically different the numbers are…
TSP Portfolio’s current year (2024) wager ROI is +8.54%. It means for every $1.00 you bet…not what’s in your bankroll…you get back $0.0854 in profit. Doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s like being a casino. The house edge in roulette is “only” 5.26% (American Roulette). It means every dollar you bet on roulette, the casino will grind away $0.0526 from you…which is why the longer you play, the more you lose…every dollar…every spin…when broken out over the long term, the house ground away just over a nickel from you on every $1 on the table…again PER SPIN. As any gambler knows, those nickels they grind away from every dollar add up until you are eventually broke. It’s why you don’t walk up to a roulette table, bet every spin for an hour and are only down by 5.26% of what you bought to the table…you are usually broke after the hour. The above is the math is true for winning bettors…it just works in reverse in taking from the house versus losing to the house.
A +8.54% wager ROI does not mean if you had a bankroll of $10,000 that you made $854 in profit.
How powerful is a +8.54% ROI in gambling?
Let’s assume, because TSP Portfolio typically wagers 0.10 units as it’s standard wager, and mathematically for security you want 100 standard wagers of bankroll, that your bankroll is 10.0 units (0.1 units standard wager x 100 = 10). With that in mind, now realize the total unit profit in TSP Portfolio for 2024 is +8.73 units. Do you see it now? If not, I’ll show you…
If you take the +8.73 units against the assumed 10.0 unit total bankroll, it means your RETURN ON BANKROLL ROI is +87.3% in 2024….and +348.7% lifetime (TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/). So, our same friend with the $10,000 bankroll and a per wager risk of $100 ($10,000/100=$100 per wager) is up +$8,730 in 2024 following TSP Portfolio. The average mutual fund achieves 5-10% per year RETURN ON BANKROLL/PORTFOLIO! Meaning if you have $10,000 in a mutual fund, with a +10% ROI…you earned $10,000 that year. Yes………if TSP Portfolio were a hedge fund, it would likely manage every investment dollar in the world given its return on portfolio/bankroll!
Do you see the power of that perceived “little” +2%, +5%, +8%, +10%, wager ROI? Someone betting $1,000 per wager, meaning a $100,000 bankroll, has made $87,300 this year…not bad for a $6 per day subscription…with ZERO thinking involved…just following!
The math keeps going, if you have a $500,000 bankroll, meaning an average wager of $5,000, you made $436,500 this year…and $1,743,500 since January 1st, 2023…with no thinking…in exchange for $6 or less per day! Oh wait…you bet $10,000 per wager? You made $873,000 this year…and $3,487,000 since January 1st, 2023. See how a “little” +8.54% wager ROI adds up?!?!
Do you now see why ChatGPT says anyone with a wager ROI of +5% or more is “exceptional”? The numbers and logs of every wager do not lie…the math tells the story…check it all out for yourself at TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/.
My goal isn’t to convince the idiots in the audience that the TSP Portfolio is good…it’s to show those of you interested in learning how what seem to be very small wager ROI’s….like even the 1-2% that ChatGPT states most professional sports bettors achieve…may seem small but the profits add up when grinding that return on every single dollar/unit wagered/risked.
It all seems so easy, what’s the catch?!?!? Oh, it’s a big one…YOU ARE THE CATCH! Those of you who shit your pants when the TSP Portfolio is on a 2-13 run…or is 0-20 it’s last 20 wagers…and forget all the past performance leading up to that run. Those of you who can’t wait for the hot streak to come, so you press and chase aggressively in a cold streak and destroy your bankroll. Why? Lack of patience! Do you see why I preach patience every damn day?!? If you could just bet like a robot, not be a sniveling baby during EVERY FUCKING COLD STREAK or individual loss…and just ride the ups and downs, the above math shows the pot of gold at the end of the patience tunnel. It’s just so many of you will never survive the patience journey!
Just because TSP Portfolio has great performance numbers does not mean you won’t have PLENTY of ice cold runs throughout the year. Statistically, you should have 2 cold runs on average per month!! If you could just be patient during those cold runs…they are always offset by the eventual hot runs. If only more people had patience in gambling they would see the power of the above math…and might chill out a little when wagering.
Good luck!