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The concept behind the “Book Need” is simple—sportsbooks make a fortune because, contrary to popular belief, sports betting isn’t free or easy money. The house always has the edge over the average bettor. So, when a game presents a high-profit opportunity for the book due to heavy public betting on the other side, who has the advantage—the book or the players? If sportsbooks consistently lost these high-margin games, they wouldn’t be in business for long.
The Book Needs analytic identifies these high-margin situations, helping TSP followers align with the book’s position—to an extent. Unlike the book, bettors don’t collect vig; they pay it. However, Medium and High-Level Book Needs have historically performed well enough to overcome the vig and generate a net profit.
Why Does This Work?
When the public overwhelmingly backs one side of a game, sportsbooks adjust the odds to make the opposite side more attractive. Betting against the heavy public action often puts you on the value side—which is key to long-term success in sports betting.
How to Read the Book Needs Table
The wager listed in the Book Needs table represents what the book wants to happen for maximum profit. For example, if “NY Giants ML” (moneyline) is listed with a rating of 72, it means the sportsbook needs the NY Giants to win outright. A rating of 72 would classify this as a Medium-Level Book Need.
High Level Book Needs require a Book Needs rating of 80-100
Medium Level Book Needs require a Book Needs rating of 70-79
For performance records, please visit https://tsp.live/sports-records/.
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Understanding Sharp Action & Analytics
While some content covers sharp action, it’s important to recognize that sharp money moves for various reasons—not just because a wager is considered valuable. Sharp bettors frequently bet for:
- Middling
- Arbitrage
- Hedging
- Buyouts
- And other strategic purposes
TSP.Live does not determine why sharp money is betting—it simply reports that sharp money is betting. Just because a wager is labeled sharp does not mean it holds value 100% of the time, nor should it be interpreted as a “best bet” based on an analytic reading.
The best sharp bettors win 54-56% of their spread bets and generate a 4-7% ROI. Be cautious of industry frauds who claim 60-100% win rates and 80-100%+ ROIs—these numbers are pure fiction.
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Good luck in your action!