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The theory behind the “Book Need” is simple…sportsbooks make an absolute fortune, and despite the popular belief that sports betting is free & easy money…it isn’t. The books always have the advantage over the average bettor. Therefore, if there is a game where the book stands to achieve a high profit margin, because a lot of bettors are piling on the other side, who do you think has the advantage…the book or the players? If the book lost all their high profit margin games then they likely wouldn’t be around for long. So, the “Book Needs” analytic finds those high profit margin situations to allow TSP followers to put themselves on the side of the book…sort of.
The book gets the benefit of collecting vig on action they book, something the player does not enjoy. Quite the contrary, the player actually has to pay vig. So, it is not possible to put yourself truly on the side of the book in the same way. The good news is the Medium and High Level Book Needs have a strong enough performance that even with having to pay vig, a net profit has been achieved on those angles.
How is this possible? When everyone is on one side of a game, usually the other side will be made a value by the book to attract money. So, often betting opposite the side with the bulk of the money will put you on the value side…and that’s the side of long-term success in gambling.
THE WAGER LISTED ON THE BOOK NEEDS TABLE IS WHAT THE BOOK NEEDS TO WIN TO ENSURE MAXIMUM PROFIT. So, if NY Giants ML (ML = “moneyline”) is listed with a rating of 72, that means the book would like the NY Giants to win outright (hence “moneyline”) and given the rating of 72, the NY Giants would be a Medium Level Book Need.
High Level Book Needs require a Book Needs rating of 80-100
Medium Level Book Needs require a Book Needs rating of 70-79
Ratings of 60-69 are considered Low Level and are not logged, but will still appear on the Book Needs analytic table. Ratings below 60 illustrate heavy public action, but do not qualify as a Low Level Book Need.
For performance records, please visit https://tsp.live/sports-records/.
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ANALYTIC NOTICE: Analytics are provided to give you access to information that you otherwise would not be able to obtain publicly.
Analytics ARE NOT DESIGNED NOR INTENDED to tell you what to bet. Analytics are provided to make you a more informed bettor when handicapping and making your wagering decisions.
If you are placing a wager simply because the wager shows up within an analytic or alert, you are using the information incorrectly, outside its intended use, and opening yourself up to unnecessary risk.
While some analytics and information covers sharp action, it should be noted that sharp action can occur for many reasons beyond sharp money feeling a wager has value. Sharp bettors frequently wager for the purposes of middling, arbitrage, hedging, buyouts and more. Analytics do not discern why sharp money is betting, they just report that sharp money is betting. Just because something shows as “sharp” should not be construed as meaning the wager has value 100% of the time. A wager showing as sharp should also not be construed as a best bet, regardless of the reading within the analytic. The best sharp bettors have a win percentage of 54-56% (betting spreads), not the 60-100% that many touts and other unsavory sports gambling industry jerkoffs (technical term) may want to portray.
Good luck in your action!