Category: TSP Live Education

In the last two episodes of “Saratoga Handicapping” I dove int races in looking to find the value. However, what if you have a horse you absolutely know is going to win…but it is going to be a big chalk and likely not a value BUT YOU JUST HAVE TO HAVE ACTION TO IT!!!!

Alright, in these cases you would use a mix of handicapping and value searching. There is one such race that fits this mold for me at Saratoga. It is Race #11.

The TSP Power Ratings for Race 11: 3/4-1/5-2

BRISNET.com Racing Form for Race 11 (Click Here)

The #3, Thorpedo Anna is a name you might recall from the Kentucky Oaks and then the Acorn on Belmont Stakes day back in early June. Thorpedo Ann blew away the fields in both races and has been training very well leading up to this race. Those were very strong fields of horses too…today’s field is rather laughable by comparison. So, if the jockey doesn’t screw this up or fall off the horse I would be shocked if Thorpedo Anna does not win. I have been shocked before and Thorpedo Anna’s prices will be -EV as a win bet…so it is not worth betting straight. Don’t go and put $50,000 on Thorpedo Anna because “she can’t lose”. There is A LOT that can happen in a horse race. So, instead of a $50,000 win wager on a -EV horse, let’s try a $20 or less exotic using Thorpedo Anna.

The option becomes putting together either a Superfecta (first 4 horses) or a Trifecta (first three horses). By being able to wheel or key Thorpedo Anna on top, we can maybe get a price to come in and provide a good exotic.

In this race, just based on the TSP Power Ratings, the horses morning line odds are…

3 = 1/2
4 = 5/1
1 = 5/2
5 = 8/1
2 = 20/1

If we “assume” for wagering that Anna wins the race, then we put here in our top spot.

1st: #3

Now we can do either a trifecta or superfecta. I would not be interested in an exacta because with Anna there it isn’t going to pay much.

If the race goes 3-1-2-5-2 then the exotics are worthless. There’s no value or money if that is the order of finish. If Anna wins, then the #1 cannot come in 2nd place. So, that leaves me 2, 4 or 5 for my 2nd place spot in the wager. The 2 is an a rough horse and doesn’t have much going for it as you can get just by the notes. I don’t see it for the 2nd Place spot. So, I will use 4 & 5 for my 2nd Place spot in the wager.

2nd: 4,5

Now if I want to make this a trifecta or superfecta, I technically could have 1,2,4,5 for the third place spot. However, given there are only 5 horses in this race, and given the #2 is a rough horse on paper. Everyone who boxes the Superfecta or Trifecta is going to do it as 1,3,4,5…throwing out the #2. To have a good price we NEED the #2 in the trifecta and the #1 out of the trifecta is Thorpedo Anna is to win. So, based on this value assessment, I would want 2,4,5 for the third spot to create my trifecta.

I am not playing a superfecta because there are only five horses and every idiot will just box all five horses to guarantee a payout. Dumb…but it’s going to happen and thereby the Super won’t pay what it should. However, a proper trifecta that includes the #2 but removes the #1…should that hit…would likely carry a +EV payout. So, let’s do it based on what I have put together so far.

$1 Trifecta
1st: 3
2nd: 4,5
3rd: 2,4,5
Total Cost = $4.00

The above breakdown didn’t really use the racing form much. Instead my wager here is solely based on my thoughts on Thorpedo Anna and this being a weak field (based on the smaller stakes races the rest of these horses outside Anna are coming from) combined with the TSP Power Ratings as a filter while trying to find the optimal payout with Thorpedo at the top.

My goal with this “lesson” is to show how you can breakdown a race based on a horse you like and then make value assumptions as to the best way to take a wager that is going to be +EV versus betting you “lock” straight and heavy…and then having some bad luck take your lock out…with a large amount of bankroll. You may not win but when you do win it will cover all those losses in the process and turn a profit because you are keeping value on your side!

Let’s see how it goes today!

Good luck!

As I told someone yesterday…”Hopefully the combination of articles [I am doing this month] will help put together a picture but yes, handicapping horses is an art and something people do for the love of it. If you don’t have that passion for it…it’s not worth the time because it will never work!“

With the success of the Triple Crown wagers at The Sharp Plays there was a natural inclination by bettors of “I want to learn how to do this too.” As though I could give you 3-5 pointers, send you on your way and you would actually have a chance…more than rolling a dice…at picking value horses that perform. Teaching someone to handicap baseball is rather straight forward…look at a team’s recent performance in their record, their overall record on the season, check for key injuries, review the starting pitcher matchup and the stats for each pitcher and you can put together a rudimentary wager assessment. Horse racing is not so clean. Unlike MLB teams who play each other over and over during the course of the season, horses often come into a race from different tracks, racing against different horses, some are coming off a layoff, others were racing at higher class levels, and on and on the list goes. So, there is no standardization in a horse race like there would be when comparing teams in NBA or MLB for wager assessment.

The better handicapping comparison in horse racing would be imagine trying to handicap a baseball game, except the game involved a team from the South Korean KBO playing against a AAA baseball team in the US. There’s no standardization because these are different leagues, between teams who never play each other, and there is no basis for assessing past performance of a KBO team playing a AAA team. So, think of how deep you would have to dive into the stats to handicap the game. You would need to see average pitching speed and styles in KBO versus AAA to see if there is any edge. You would then need to assess how the hitters on each team handle the average pitching style and speed of the other league. You would need to assess who is traveling where for the game. It would be a far deeper handicap than handicapping an MLB game where things are standard because it is one MLB team versus another. That’s why the form has so much information packed into those little sections for each horse on the racing from. It is trying to give you a full view of the horse and various stats/data points so you can compare horses in your handicapping given each horse is coming in off a different previous race, experience, sometimes races have horses of different ages, then there’s those arrivals from different tracks and/or having raced in different classes of race. often. Everything I just laid out is only a sliver of all the moving parts to horse race handicapping. The way to put these horses on a level playing field to assess them in the upcoming race then becomes looking at how the trainers and jockeys do at the current track. When was the last time the horse raced? Is the horse moving up or down in class or distance? How did the horse run in its last race? All these little things play into how prepared a horse will be for the competition it faces today.

Andy Beyer is the creator of the first tool which really revolutionized horse racing. He created the Beyer Speed Rating which was found in the Daily Racing Form. The speed rating was an attempt to standardize the horses and show how fast they are in a single number. In the past this was done using distance and time only and computed in different ways by the handicapper him/herself. Beyer incorporated more factors into his speed rating. You also see speed ratings in the Brisnet.com racing forms that I am posting for these articles.

Speed ratings allow you to get an idea of a horse’s speed in their previous races based on a calculation Beyer devised. By creating a means of standardizing speed between horses we could now use these speed ratings for past races to compare horses in the current race. So, Horse #1 might have speed ratings of 85-86-71-83 in his last four races. Gives me an idea that this horse has an average speed around 81. Horses in the Kentucky Derby might run with speed ratings of 98-105 or more. Horses in an average race at a top tier track like Saratoga will average 80-90. In a stakes race at Saratoga it might be 95-100+. If you have a race and one horse (“Horse A”) has speed ratings of 85, 82, 81, 84, 83 in its last 5 races, and other horse (“Horse B”) has speed ratings of 82, 80, 79, 80, 78…you would clearly say the bet would be Horse A because his speed is on average better than Horse B. However, what if Horse B just had a solid workout in the past 10 days and Horse A is coming off a ten month layoff? Changes the picture A LOT. Horse A had good speed…but is now ten months older and this is its first race off a layoff. Horse B has been racing recently and shows good form due to a solid recent workout…I might look to Horse B.

Anyway, you can see how this speed rating helps us dial down a horse into how fast they run, but there are other factors to consider beyond just speed. Think of it like a car. If you went from point at to point B at 95 MPH, your speed rating might be “95”. If I ran the same distance, my speed rating is likely a “10” because I can’t run anywhere near 95 MPH. So, now you know nothing else but you know that if we were going to race and people knew nothing other than you have a speed rating of 95 and I have a speed rating of 10…who is everyone going to bet? Sure, you bet the 95 because it’s a race and a 95 speed rating is far faster than my 10. However, what if I said the race was going to be in a foot of mud and you are driving a Ferrari…now what do you bet? Sure, the car is faster…but will it have traction and be able to move in the mud. The mud will likely slow me down too…but I might be better suited for mud racing than you…and that’s another factor of assessing horses…some don’t perform on wet/muddy tracks and some perform exceptionally on such tracks. How do you know? All that mud and sloppy versus fast and good track performance is listed right on the racing form. Long story short…summarizing speed into a single figure is very helpful, but it’s not the only thing. Now you have to assess the type of race, its conditions, etc. to get a full assessment on the horses and the race.

Why isn’t speed everything if it is a race? Some horses are being put in a race for a tuneup…whereby the trainer just wants the horse to get some competition but isn’t racing to win. Some horses are coming off a layoff…so their speed ratings from 3,6,9 months ago don’t really mean anything today. So, the Beyer speed ratings were a huge help, but like the TSP Power Ratings…you need to further assess the horses beyond speed.

The TSP Power Ratings use speed, but they also use pace, pedigree of the horse, class rating of the horse, track performance, jockey performance, trainer performance, and more to give me a rating of the horse. Once again, like Beyer, these TSP Power Ratings have proven to be highly effective in handicapping the races, but when combined with fundamental handicapping (checking recent workouts, assessing potential jockey/trainer intent for the race, looking at the prices in the pools when the race is approaching) the TSP Power Ratings are second to none and a great filter.

The key is learning how to read a racing form. It would be far too long for me to type and explain the ins and outs. So, I will defer to you doing some Google searches if you have an interest. However, there is a relatively simply read and breakdown by Brisnet that could really get you up to speed. So…

Here is a link on BRISNET.com for how to read the “Ultimate Past Performance” sheets… https://www.brisnet.com/content/brisnet-online-horse-racing-data-handicapping/read-brisnet-com-ultimate-past-performances/

It is long and will take time, but print out today’s race form (link below) and then visit that link at Brisnet above and you can follow along and really get yourself up to speed. Here’s today’s form for the race I am covering…

Here’s the Racing Form for Race #5 (CLICK HERE)

Here is what the TSP Power Ratings say for this race: 3-7-5-8/6-4/1-2

Since the ratings were run, the following horses were scratched from the race: #4

Now let’s dive in…

From yesterday’s article you hopefully now know where to find the notes for each horse in the racing form. The notes provide a simple handicap of each horse based on key factors. Today I will dive a little deeper into the stats/information provided in the form for each horse.

I am going with Race #5 for this example. The race is 7 furlongs and would be considered a sprint. A “route” is a race that is 1 mile or longer. We can see by the top section on Page 1 of the racing form that the race is a $50,000 claimer with a purse of $80,000.

First, let’s filter out some horses based on the notes. I am going to filter out the following horses for the reasons cited…

#1) Poor speed figures, beaten by weaker horses in its last race.
#2) Coming off a 6 month layoff and no official workouts at Saratoga. How can you tell about the workouts? See the bottom of the section for Horse #2? There are two rows of numbers with the top row starting “11 Jly Bel tr.t 4f ft”. These are recent workouts and I would like to see “Sar” as the last workout. Instead I see “Bel” which is Belmont. So, I have a horse coming off a layoff without any prep workouts at Saratoga…I’ll pass.

With the above two removed, I am left with 3,5,6,7,8 because the 4 is scratched.

#3) The horse got 2nd in its last race and lost by 1.5 lengths. You can see this on the race breakdown where it says “28June24Lrl”. Again, deciphering this sort of stuff takes a little time, it’s all about whether this is interesting enough for you to learn. What that text tells me is on June 28th, 2024 at Laurel Park, the horse ran a 6 furlong race in 1:11^3. In that race it opened up in 2nd by a head, then held 2nd by a head, in the stretch it got into first by a head and then at the finish it had fallen back to 2nd by 1.5 lengths. Going all the way to the right side of the form I can see that the horse (based on the comments)” had a long battle inside, led the race, and finished “gme” or “gamely”. Gamely is defined by Equibase as “A horse that narrowly misses victory. He has either dueled for command from the outset and gave way grudgingly in the late stages, or set all the pace and just missed.”

You can visit https://www.equibase.com/products/cc-comments.cfm for a breakdown of what the various comments mean.

We can also see in the top right hand corner of #3’s section on the form that in 2024 it has had 5 starts, 0 first place finishes, 3 second place finishes and zero third place finishes (top right hand corner “2024 5 0- 3- 0” below the “Life” which is lifetime performance).

So, not a bad horse, fought had in its last race but tired late. Could be an issue today as it is moving up from 6 furlongs in the last race to 7 furlongs in this race. Definitely a horse to note thought as it has gotten 2nd in each of its last three races.

#5) The horse has not raced in 47 days, but it does have a good workout on July 13th…the problem is that workout is not at “Sar” but at “TP”. Similar to stock ticker symbols, you eventually learn all these different codes from memory and knowing the various major tracks in the US and Canada. I know “TP” as Turfway Park which is a synthetic track. You can google what that means. Here is a link of track name abbreviations that are commonly used: https://www.equineline.com/dirreffr.cfm?topic=rfnatrck%2Ehtm.

I would much prefer to see a workout at Saratoga to show the#5 horse is primed for this track despite the layoff. The horse got 4th in its last race back on June 1st, but that was a $100K stakes race…so it was against tough competition. The [S] before each race type on the form means the track was “synthetic” versus dirt. Horses do race differently on synthetic so that’s a concern here because again, we have nothing to go on for how this horse will handle the Saratoga dirt.

So, a good horse given the stakes race, but can it handle dirt? Last time it raced on dirt was September of 2023 when it got 5th. Every other race was on a synthetic track which can be noted by the “[S]” you see before each race type in the form.

#6) Skipping to the comments section shows this horse had an “Awkward Break” out of the gate in the last race and was “off slw” or off slowly out of the gate. So, clearly had some issues in its last race at the start that likely doomed it. So, we can throw that out. The race before the last one the horse was bumped in the break out of the gate, but then appeared to catch a nice run in a 7 furlong race which saw it win by 2.25 lengths. Potential here because we have a drop in class, hopefully it gets out of the gate better, and it had a competitive speed rating in its win at 7 furlongs.

After that race at Saratoga on June 8th, the horse then had a workout at Saratoga on July 3rd where it ran a decent 48^1 over 4 furlongs. Not bad. Learning what makes for a good workout time based on the different tracks simply takes experience of seeing the various numbers over and over again. In general, for a 4 furlong workout I would like to see the horse below 48^5…if it is under 48…then I am really interested. I do have to stress though…what makes a good time at one track might not be a good time at another track. These variations are usually less than a second, but that does mean something.

#7) Failed as a favorite in its last race and was out more than 2 months. However, the horse got a good recent workout…but not at Saratoga…this was at Belmont. The trainer is winning 29% of his races with horses in their first race off claiming them. The horse’s best speed is better than any of the other horses in this race. Clearly a good looking horse and likely why it is the favorite.

Going back to the #6 horse…it got that 48^1 on Saratoga’s track and there is no note about a “Sharp 4F workout” like we see for the notes of the #7…yet the #7 had a workout at Belmont over 4F in 48^4! That’s what I was talking about in the differences between tracks when it comes to workouts. The 48^4 on Belmont’s track is considered “sharp” but the 48^1 on Saratoga over the same distance and ride style (“B” for “breeze”…which means the horse was just running at a moderate speed and effort…the other style is “H” for “handled” which usually means the horse was put under the whip and run hard).

Here is a link to notes for deciphering Workouts: https://www.equibase.com/newfan/workouts.cfm.

#8) Horse was beaten by weaker horses in its last race, but it does have a tie rating for the highest speed in its last race. It’s best dirt speed is also better than the average winning speed rating for horses who have raced in the past in this type of race at this track and distance. The concern I have is if you go to the horse’s previous races, you can see it was trained by Norman Cash and is now trained by Eduardo Caramon…by the way, you might wonder how I am finding all this stuff. I am not really getting into the little things, but all of the stuff I am discussing can be found within the horse’s section of stats on the form. So, if you don’t know how I found out that Eduardo Caramon is the current trainer nor can you see how I knew the previous trainer or how I also know that Eduardo Caramon has had 3 horses start with 0 wins, 1 second place and 0 third place finished for his horses)…simply search the section on the form for the #8 horse until you see the word “Caramon” and then see if you can piece it together. Then try to find “Norman Cash” listed somewhere in that same section and the picture should begin to focus a little. Much of learning horse racing is getting familiar with the racing form. A lot that seems complicated can be easily broken down by spending a little time navigating the form and running some searches…or viewing the pages I linked above to the various horse racing websites and the link showing how Brisnet breaks down the Ultimate Past Performances for you.

Anyway, the #8 is not a bad horse, but some concerns given the trainer move. Is the horse really ready one race with a new trainer to blow by everyone else? Maybe…but its lower probability. The race could just be a test with little interest in winning for the trainer to gauge where this horse should be.

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So, with all the above said, I have filtered the horses I like down to 3,5,6,7,8

I have concerns with the #8 (new trainer) and #7 (current favorite but a lot of questions with the 2 month layoff and no workouts at Saratoga…it might win but it won’t be a value given the unknowns).

For the horse I like to win I have now filtered down to 3,5,6

I have seen that the TSP Power Ratings have: 3-7-5-8/6-4/1-2

The TSP Power Ratings also throw out the 1-2. When using the TSP Power Ratings I like to lean on using one of the Top 5 horses for my win spot. Once I have selected one or multiple horses for the win spot, then I am open to anyone for the 2nd or 3rd spot (3rd if I am betting a trifecta). So, I would have 3,5,6,7,8 as my top horses…the same five I got to after my handicapping….but I then removed 7 &8 for the reasons cited above.

I am left with 3,5,6 for my “Win” or 1st Place spot in an exotic. I am then open to any horses for 2nd Place…and this race seems wide open to me. I don’t really have 1-2 horses I like for 2nd Place, but instead really like anyone but the 1-2…and of course the 4 because it is scratched.

Taking all this into account, I come up with the following exacta…

$1 Exacta Wheel
1st: 3,5,6
2nd: 3,5,6,7,8
Total Cost: $12

Post Race Update: The order of finish was 3-7-1-6 and the 3-7 exacta paid back $14.40 for every $12 wagered.

We lost $12 on yesterday’s example…let’s see how we do today. Hopefully the favorite is out of the top spot and we should get a decent price!

Good luck!

I plan to do these race breakdowns a few times this month to provide insights into basic horse racing handicapping. Eventually developing them into an article for TheSharpPlays.com.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND…HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING IS COMPLEX. Just look at a racing form and you will see all sorts of numbers and information. Unless I were to write a book, which I do not have interest in doing, there is no way I can take someone who knows nothing about horse race handicapping and turn them into an expert. I learned horse handicapping over a period of YEARS…reading several books, taking the time to look at a racing form and learn what each part of it meant, etc. So, I will try to do a Cliff Notes version, but there will likely be A LOT of things you will need to educate yourself on in the process. If you have a desire to learn…you will need to put in effort. If you do not have a desire to learn…quit now and save yourself a ton of time.

I am going to Race #7 at Saratoga today.

For this race, the TSP Power Ratings show the following breakdown: 10/1/4-9-7/5-2-8-6-3

Since the breakdown was posted, the #2 horse was scratched.

Alright, so the next step is to open the racing form to Race #7. You can obtain a racing form from DRF.com (Daily Racing Form) at the cost of $4.25 for the “Classic” form. Here is a copy of the racing form at BRISNET.com (CLICK HERE).

Now here is where this could become a 100 page thesis. How do we decipher the form. I will touch on parts of what I am looking at, but if this is of interest to you then I would say to visit https://www.wikihow.com/Read-a-Racing-Form.

My first step is to scroll through the form and just take a look at the horses. The notes can be very helpful to limit the horses I am interested in.

So, in the notes, I see the following…

#1) I see he switches to a high percentage jockey, the trainer has a 37% win rate when a horse comes of a claim (a “Claimer” is a type of race where owners can agree to purchase a horse prior to the race being run), the horse finished 3rd in its last race and the jockey for today has been hot over the last 7 days…winning 7 races, coming in 2nd in 3 races and coming in 3rd in two races out of 21).

Just based on the notes and not diving into anything too technical yet, I like what I see with the #1.

#2) The horse won its last race (at BAQ which is Belmont at Aqueduct on July 7th…a 7 furlong race on the dirt which was a fast track and the horse was in a $20,000 claimer…which means owners could have claimed it for $20K). However, I see a negative note that the trainer is poor with a horse in his 3rd race of a layoff only winning 7% of his starts.

I will pass on this horse because I don’t like betting on horses off a win. Typically when a horse wins the owner/trainer will move the horse up in class or perceived class and so a back to back of wins is often a little tough. Sure it happens…but it is a lower probability situation.

The horse is also scratched so no need to bother with it.

#3) The horse won its last race and had a sharp 3 furlong workout on July 8th…I like seeing horses off a good workout. However, there are two negative notes…the horse is moving up in class off the win and the horse’s speed figures (the bold numbers under “SPD” on the form portion of the records) are poor com pared to the other horses in the race. I will toss this one out for now.

#4) The horse was a favorite in its last race and lost, but the trainer has logged 18% winners after his horse lost as a favorite.

Not a bad horse and one worth noting. So, now I am looking 1 and 4 at this point.

#5) Won its last race and had a strong workout BUT as we can see and what I discussed above about why I don’t like horses off a win…the horse is moving up in class from the last race. So, it will be facing tougher competition. Granted it blew away the last field it faced…the move up in class is still a concern. A possible horse for the end of a trifecta wager.

#6) Another horse that won its last race. However the trainer does win 28% of its races off a claim. Interesting horse…but I don’t think strong enough.

#7) This horse has a lot going on…it switches to a high percentage jockey, it drops in class, it moves from a route (long distance) to a sprint (short distance), it adds blinkers (which is helpful for horses that get distracted while racing) and it has the fastest speed of any horse in a race. The problem is it showed declining form in its last race. However, when I check the last race comments…the horse was bumped at the break, was 6 wide at the first turn and then 4-5 wide at the second turn. Being wide will kill the speed of the horse and fatigue it rapidly…so it is no wonder it had a shitty race. Interesting horse here.

So, now I am eyeing 1,4,6,7

#8) Uh oh…another winner of the last race. It has had a sharp workout and it had a very strong speed rating in its last race. However, the horse has not raced in 2 months so it could be a little rusty and this trainer has 0 wins in 30 starts when the horse has been away for 46-90 days…I’ll pass.

#9) The horse drops in class, is moving back to a sprint (from long distance racing) and is tied for the best dirt speed among today’s starters. The problem is the horse has not raced in more than 8 months…so it can be tough to come off that long of a layoff. It would be nicer if I could see that recent workouts were blistering and thereby the horse is returning to form…but I don’t see it. I’ll pass.

#10) We have the favorite here. The horse is tied for the highest last race speed rating and is coming off a win. I don’t like that the horse is coming off a win. When I look, the race was a $20,000 allowance just like this one. The horse won that race by 4 length (I can see this in the “FIN” column for the last race). It’s a decent margin to win by…but the owner/trainer is putting him in the same class of race here…not moving him up off the win? It could be because he is changing tracks and just wants the horse to get familiar with racing at Saratoga…but that also points to me that the trainer might not feel the horse is ready yet to be competitive. So, clearly a good horse, but at 2/1 I am concerned on the value I might get. It’s a horse I will note for my exotics.

At this point I have reviewed all the horses and I like 1,4,6,7,10.

The TSP Power Ratings ranks the horses as 10/1/4-9-7/5-2-8-6-3

I am concerned I won’t get much value by betting the 10 on my wager. It’ll be the favorite and go off as a negative value. So, it might win, and it is a good on-paper horse hence the “10/” in the TSP Power Ratings, but I will not win long-term betting horses if I bet the favorite on top of my wager.

So, I am going to do a $1 exacta wheel as follows…

1st Place: 1,4,7

2nd Place: 1,4,6,7,10

The wager will cost $12. In a normal situation I would probably only bet 1 to 2 horses for the 1st place spot, but I just want to use this as an example of narrowing down a field using the TSP Power Ratings and the racing form.

The order of finish was 5-1-3-10. The exacta lost $12.

So, in the first place spot I put the 1,4, and 7. One of these needs to win the race. In the second place spot I put 1,4,6,7,10…one of these needs to finish second. If one of the horses I have to win does win and one of the horses I have for second comes in second…I win my exacta! I removed the #6 from the top spot of my exacta because it is way down on the TSP Power Ratings. I like it, so I will use it only for 2nd place. I also removed the #10 from the top spot because the exacta won’t pay much if it wins and it’s better to bet for value.

I have gotten the above by just using the notes and a couple little dives into the past performance. Perhaps you can take the time to see what I am reading when I do dive into the past performance. I will break down past performance a little further in the next article. The goal of these is just a step by step approach to handicapping.

I want to get this out so I apologize for grammar as I did not proofread before publishing. Any issues, please let me know!

Good luck!

To avoid repeating myself every Sunday during the baseball season, I have created this brief article about the Sunday Night Baseball public fade angle.

My first gig in sports betting was making Sunday Night Baseball markets for a book offshore. In doing that, I became intimately aware of the ins and outs…and the uniqueness of the SNB action. One thing I kept noticing was that the public fade on Sunday Night Baseball was MONEY! It is one of the few public fade angles that has consistently won. A lot of people love to just blindly fade the public, but I have found that to be a 50/50 endeavor at best. You get wins, you get losses, but like the public you get juiced out.

HOWEVER…there is one spot in all sports that has consistently been a winner when fading the public. It is fading the side and total on Sunday Night Baseball for which the public is medium or heavy. I don’t bother with small public leans, but when the public is medium or heavy…fading the team or total that the side is on has shown to be a rousing success going back to the late 90’s when I first discovered it.

So, if you are wondering why I put some value into a public fade angle, it’s because when it comes to Sunday Night Baseball, that fade angle is consistently making money after almost 30 years!

Good luck!

On the morning of March 14 (2024), I released a wager in TSP Live on Xavier/UConn UNDER 149.5 for the TSP Live Portfolio. Shortly after the release, a counter buy hit on the OVER 149 and above. Counter buys tend to be strong angles to bet…betting with the late money when it hits…in this case taking the OVER 149.

Counter buys are when sharps hit one side and then other sharp money hits the opposite side of the wager later on. It’s similar to a head fake except that head fakes tend to have small sharp volume and then are followed by a massive move across the market later when limits are high. Counter buys don’t see such aggressive opposite buying. So, a sharp head fake would be they bet $1000 on UNDER and then $10,000 on OVER when limits go up. Counter buy will see $1000 on UNDER and then $2000 on OVER…so it’s a disparity, but not as large as a head fake.

Given this new information, I had some concerns about my initial UNDER 149.5 bet. As a bettor faced with this information, what can you do?!?!

The following is what I discussed on Telegram in terms of strategy to handle the counter buy…

A counter buy killed the Algorithm Selection (Oklahoma/TCU UNDER 144) the previous day (March 13th). On March 13th, I discussed using in-play as an option if you wanted to buyout or play the middle on the game. Unfortunately, the in-play target never hit…although there were a few occasions in-play where you could have bought out of the UNDER 144 for an in-play bet on OVER 144 and just lost vig.

In the Xavier/UConn example on March 14th, the in-play target based on where the counter buy hit would have been to bet OVER 140.5 (more on this math later).

Shortly after the game got underway, the in-play total dipped to 145.5. So, you could get a very tight 4 point middle…but it’s still a middle. It’s not the target, but it’s an option for panicky bettors. What is a middle? The wager is a “middle” because the pregame wager was UNDER 149.5 and the in-play would be to take OVER 145.5. So, there is a chance the final score could fall “in the middle”. For me, I was ride or die on the initial wager, and not looking to buy out, but that’s me and everyone is different so I wanted to provide this discussion.

Since a lot of rookie bettors will shit their pants when there is a counter buy on the other side of a wager they took…especially if they went in HARD…it is good to know options to eject from a bet. In-play and 2nd Half wagering is a great way to eject…if the setup and price is right! Sometimes (like you will soon see) you can with BOTH the original and the “eject” bet!

The game went to halftime with a point total of 67 points. When the halftime markets opened, the 2nd Half total was 80. If you bet the OVER 80, you would win the original bet (UNDER 149.5) and push the 2H bet on a final point total of 147. You would win both bets (original UNDER and 2nd Half OVER) on a final point total of 148 and 149…and you would lose the pregame bet, but win the 2nd Half bet if 83 points or more were scored. It’s a pretty tight middle and hopefully nobody went in hard on a 0.1 unit wager…but if you did or you are sweating profusely for some reason at the prospect of being opposite a counter buy then you could potentially get out for some vig…with the chance of winning both bets…by taking OVER 80 for the 2nd Half.

Why not just bet a counter buy pregame?!? The one problem with betting counter buys pregame is the books tend to move aggressively on counter buys. So, the problem is often the line when the counter buy hits immediately moves and the price you can now get is no longer in the sweet spot for playing the counter buy.

So, when I report any counter buys, you could avoid betting the counter buy wager pregame and just see what comes up in-play. Don’t chase bad numbers, especially for material wagers.

Often if a game is slow for the first minute or two, a total closing OVER 150 could drop to OV148 in the first 60 to 90 seconds…perhaps hitting the price (or better) where the counter buy took place. Let’s pretend the counter buy hit at 149 like it did with the Xavier/UConn game. The early slow start gives you OVER 148 immediately which is better than the pregame price…and the price where the counter buy took place. You are now riding a counter buy for a price that was never available when the counter buy hit the market pregame. For me personally, I prefer to take the optimal target. The optimal target this season on totals has been use the worst price sharp money hit (OVER 150 and drop it 9 points plus get a hook if one is not included). So, in this case I would want 150 – 9 = 141…but I want a hook in my favor so I will settle for 140.5.

With about 8 minutes left in the UConn game, the in-play target on the counter buy was achieved at OV140.5.

At this point I posted the following on Telegram…I ride the initial wager, but let’s see how it ends and hopefully all this can be a helpful lesson and a strategy you keep in your arsenal for future situations where you might want to use it.

Well, the ending could not have been any better! With 2:34 to go, the game was a blowout and it looked like the in-play target would not hit (129 points). UConn and Xavier would likely put in scrubs, burn clock, take silly shots, and that would be it…not much more scoring…and we needed 12 points for that in-play target to cash…although the pregame UNDER looked solid. Well, the final two minutes saw things heat up and ALMOST kill the pregame UNDER 149.5 after looking like it wouldn’t even hit the in-play OVER of 140.5.

In the end…UConn 87 – Xavier 60 for 147 points! WOW!!!! Sweaty…and a pretty middle!

How did all of the above wagers I discussed above shake out?!?

If you took the OV80 for the 2nd Half…PUSH.

If you took the in-play OVER target based on the counter buy of 140.5…WIN!

The initial was on UNDER 149.5 was a WINNER as well!

Taking the OVER 148 immediately in-play as a way to buy out of the wager did not win. Further showing that while you would have successfully bought out of your pregame wager, you didn’t leave yourself much of a middle to win both wagers. It would have had to fall perfectly on 149 to hit both. So, looking to play the target is the optimal way for a chance to win both bets…BUT…if you need to get the hell out of a bet…the 148 would have done the job just fine and left you a tight middle in the process.

So, how about that?!?! You could have cashed an OVER and an UNDER on the same game using some effort to monitor prices thanks to information in TSP Live about where sharps were betting both sides of the total. Knowing where sharps were betting allowed you to then create optimal in-play target prices.

Don’t discount the value and power of using The Sharp Plays information not just pregame but in-play! In-play bettors can often be the most successful bettors using TSP content because of all the versatility that in-play offers.

Thanks for giving this a read and good luck this March Madness and every day you are in action!

The first chart shows your chances of cashing the parlay size listed based on your straight bet win percentage. “SB Win %” stands for “Straight Bet Win Percentage”. So, if you hit 50% of your straight bets, you have a 25% chance of cashing a two leg parlay.

The second chart below shows the breakeven price you would need on your parlay based on the chance of winning the parlay as laid out in the first table. So, when your parlay is providing a payout ABOVE what is shown, you have value. In the second chart, “300” = +300 payout = 3/1 odds. So, since a two leg parlay of -110 prices yields a +265 payout at your book, by hitting 52.5% of your straight bets your fair value chances of hitting that 2 leg parlay is +262…but the book is paying you +265. So, you have value and an edge on two leg parlays.

In the case of a three leg parlay, with -110 prices, you are paid +595 by the book. So, if you hit 52.5% on your selections, you are in value since your fair value chances of hitting that three leg parlay (given your 52.5% win percentage) is +590…but the book pays you +595!

Your parlay value/edge over the house increases as your straight bet win percentage increases.

Good luck!

Parlay Size	SB Win % = 50%	SB Win % = 52.5%	SB Win % = 55%	SB Win % = 57.5%	SB Win % = 60%	SB Win % = 62.5%	SB Win % = 65%
2	25%	27.6%	30.2%	33.1	36	39.1	42.2
3	12.5%	14.5%	16.6%	19	21.6	24.4	27.5
4	6.2%	7.6%	9.2%	10.9	13	15.3	17.9
5	3.1%	4%	5%	6.3	7.8	9.5	11.6
6	1.6%	2.1%	2.8%	3.6	4.7	6	7.5
7	0.08%	1.1%	1.5%	2.1	2.8	3.7	4.9
Parlay Size	SB Win % = 50%	SB Win % = 52.5%	SB Win % = 55%	SB Win % = 57.5%	SB Win % = 60%	SB Win % = 62.5%	SB Win % = 65%
2	300	262	231	202	178	156	137
3	700	590	502	426	363	310	264
4	1513	1216	987	817	669	554	459
5	3126	2400	1900	1487	1182	953	762
6	6150	4662	3471	2678	2028	1567	1233
7	12400	8991	6567	4662	3471	2603	1941

I posted a page which includes an in-depth breakdown of the performance of the Go Fast and Win and TSP Live Degenerate Portfolios. Not only do I breakdown the ROI’s overall and for the current year, but I also list the total wagers and break the action down by category (straight bet, teaser, rollover and parlay).

If you have no idea what I am talking about, you can visit TheSharpPlays.com/portfolio-performance/ to view. The link is available under the “Records & Logs” page which can be located in TheSharpPlays.com website menu and is posted throughout TSP content.

I am always told by the masses that parlays are a sucker bet. Well, as of February 28th (2024), parlays in both portfolios have a combined ROI of +11.7% on 301 parlay wagers. Not quite the sucker bet they are made out to be…at least for the way I put them together at The Sharp Plays.

However, as people reviewed the performance and saw the success of parlays, it brought up a question…could that success be amplified through the use of Round Robin parlays? A “round robin” is simply breaking up a single larger parlay into multiple smaller leg parlays. So, you might put together a parlay that has four wagers in it. However, maybe for whatever reason you are concerned by betting a four leg parlay. You don’t want to watch a pretty 3-1 day mean no money. So, you decide to bet a round robin to break up those four bets into smaller parlays.

When you have four parlay legs, you can create the following round robin combinations…

SIX 2 leg parlays…in a 3-1 day you would net +4.8 units (assuming 1 unit on each parlay for round number illustration)…in a 2-2 day you would lose 2.4 units.

OR

FOUR 3 leg parlays…in a 3-1 day you would net +3 units (assuming 1 unit on each parlay for round number illustration)…in a 2-2 day your would lose 4 units.

A 4-0 day would result in your six 2 leg parlays bringing in +16.2 units of profit and your four 3 leg parlays bringing in +24 units of profit.

Then there are round robin combos where you can do…

Six 2 leg parlays and the four 3 leg parlays for a total of TEN active parlays.

Maybe the 2 leg parlays aren’t of interest, you could instead do the four 3 leg parlays and one 4 leg parlay for a total of FIVE active parlays.

You could even do the six 2 leg parlays, four 3 leg parlays and one 4 leg parlay for ELEVEN active parlays.

As you can see, there are A LOT of possible combos of parlays in a round robin. The sole reason to bet a round robin is to avoid those occasions when you lose a juicy parlay on one bet…TSP followers definitely know that feeling.

IMPORTANT: DO NOT WAGER ON THESE STUPID SECOND CHANCE PARLAYS (or whatever a sportsbook might call them). THESE ARE THE PARLAYS WHERE YOU STILL GET PAID IF YOU LOSE ONE LEG…OR SOMETIMES TWO LEGS ON LARGE PARLAYS. THE ODDS OFFERED BY BOOKS ON THESE BETS ARE AWFUL. YOUR EVERY DAY ROUND ROBIN IS THE BETTER OPTION IF YOU WANT TO GET PAID ON LOSING ONE LEG OF YOUR PARLAY!

Is there an edge to using round robins?

The short answer would be that it depends on the content you are using. So, for most people the answer would be no. For most people who win less than 52.4% of their bets…which is 96% of the public…parlays are a sucker bet and so round robin parlays would also be a sucker bet. When it comes to TSP content the answer would be YES, there would be an edge. If parlays in both the TSP Live and Go Fast and Win portfolios are profitable, then round robins would be profitable as well.

Round robins are good for the impatient bettor. Parlays require a lot of patience. You will lose far more parlays than you win, but when you do win, the payout covers the losses and provides a nice profit on top (as can be seen by the very high ROI on parlays for the portfolios). The problem is many bettors like to cash tickets regardless of ROI. There are thousands of casual bettors that like betting -200 chalks because they will typically cash a good amount of tickets. It’s just that they will lose more than they win regardless of the fact they are cashing a lot of tickets.

There are occasions where I go 0-10 in a run on parlays…or worse…and then cash two parlays in a row and am not only back to even, but in the green. Very few bettors have that kind of patience. So, if that describes you…perhaps look into round robins as an option to play TSP parlay content.

So, you like the idea, but how much should someone bet on their round robin?

Obviously, like anything with money and risk, this will vary dramatically by person. What I typically suggest is to try and keep your risk on the round robin to the ballpark of what you would risk on a single parlay with those same legs.

So, if today you were going to bet 1 unit on a four leg parlay, but then got cold feet and decided you wanted to do FOUR 3 leg parlays instead with those teams…I would advise betting 0.25 units or 0.30 units per parlay. Thereby your risk is 1 to 1.2 units and right in line with what you were going to risk on the one parlay.

If you were going to risk 1 unit on a four leg parlay, I would not suggest betting four 3 leg parlays at 1 unit each for a total risk of 4 units. It’s just too much risk.

Just think of a round robin as a way to not only break up your large parlay into smaller parlays, but to also spread your risk on that one large parlay across those smaller parlays.

OK, thanks TSP…I got it…bet round robins and never lose!!!

Obviously, this is a joke, but my usual closing reminder to everyone. Betting for an income is not easy in any way. Every one of us loves the idea of the perceived carefree and leisurely lifestyle of a professional bettor…and don’t get me wrong, there are a lot of carefree occasions in this business. Great flexibility, sitting by the beach and watching your action, you make your schedule, travel, finer things in life…basically money and freedom. Just look at the most public version of this with Billy Walters. Who doesn’t like that sort of thing?!?! However…there’s a dark side too. Not every day is great. It’s the one business where you could put in hours and hours over the course of the week and not only not make money…BUT LOSE IT…despite that effort. It’s just that a professional knows that while they might put in 300 hours of effort in a month and get nothing that month…they will get paid for that time in the end…through the grind and over the long-term.

There is no magic trick or wager that will provide you zero pain in betting. If there was, I would have found it a long time ago as I have been educated along the way by some of the sharpest bettors and groups to ever exist and whom you will never hear about in your life…and who put Billy Walters (great guy and the most known prolific bettor) to shame in terms of profits, betting volume and success!

So, round robins are not the Holy Grail of sports betting or parlay success. Round robins are just another tool for your wagering arsenal. A weapon that can be used when it is chilly in the markets and you want to use the low risk, high return of parlays…but don’t want to have to get a 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0 sweep to turn a profit. For some, they just don’t like parlays so instead of taking a 3 leg parlay, they prefer three 2 leg parlays and thereby the round robin is perfect. Whatever the reason…there are plenty of uses for round robins and the biggest reason to do one is your feel on a set of wagers. Sometimes the best guide is your gut…listen to it from time to time.

Good luck!

One of the hardest things for me to get people to understand when it comes to gambling is…no matter how good you are…there are going to be periods of losses. You are going to have cold streaks and periods when you can’t pick the quinella in a two horse race. If you want to avoid losing, the strategy is simple…don’t gamble. However, if you are reading this today then the probability of you not gambling is likely the same as you never experiencing a losing month of gambling…ZERO.

So, since you can’t avoid losses, the optimal strategy is to minimize those losses during the inevitable cold runs. The TSP Index is a tool I use to see whether the sharps or the public have the momentum in the betting markets. It is a tool I use daily in TSP Live and can be found at TheSharpPlays.com (https://thesharpplays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/). I will save the deep details on the Index from this article. If you want some background, you can visit the link above in this paragraph and another article on the Index here in the TSP Education section (https://tsp.live/2023/11/22/tsp-live-education-utilizing-the-sharp-plays-index/).

The purpose of this article isn’t really to discuss the how the Index works, but rather to show a real life example of its performance recently and how it played into optimizing my wagering within the TSP Live Degenerate Portfolio (subscriber content) and the free Go Fast and Win Portfolio.

On December 28th, the TSP Index got to a reading of 3.3. The higher the positive number (maximum of 5) the hotter the sharp run. Usually, it is in the 3.3 to 3.5 area when a hot run for sharp money is coming to an end and regression is on the horizon. When this level was reached (3.3) on December 28th (2023), and in the days leading in as we crossed the “3.0” threshold, I made sure to mention it to TSP Live subscribers so they were aware of the potential storm clouds ahead. Well, lo and behold, on December 28th, after hitting 3.3 in the Index, the content lost…and then a cold period of 11 days followed. During the 11 day cold period from December 28th through January 7th, the Degenerate Portfolio lost 1.14 units. The hot run in December leading into the cold period saw the Degenerate Portfolio gain +6.52 units. Another good example of maximizing wins and minimizing losses.

On January 8th, the Degenerate Portfolio continued playing tight because of the on-going downtrend in the Index. Thankfully things turned on January 8th and I cashed a parlay and a straight bet on Washington/Michigan UN56.5. In that one day (January 8th) I picked up +0.45 units for the Degenerate Portfolio…and the Go Fast and Win Portfolio also cashed for +0.20 units. Not just because of those wagers, but due to sharp and public performances as a whole in the betting markets on January 8th, the Index then finally turned up when it was updated on the morning (8am ET) of January 9th, 2024…signaling at least a pause in the downtrend…if not an end to the downtrend and a new turn in favor of sharp money.

So, over 11 days the Degenerate Portfolio lost 1.14 units…and then in one day the Degenerate Portfolio got back a chunk of those losses. It didn’t stop there. On the evening of January 9th, the second day that this new uptrend in the Index was in play, the TSP content (free and paid) had a 6-0 performance! Coincidence? Longtime followers of the TSP Index would say no. The Score Prediction analytic for GoFastAndWin.com (free) went 3-0, including a +210 DRAW in Italian soccer…and the Degenerate Portfolio in TSP Live also went 3-0 on completely separate wagers! The result provided another +0.40 units to the Degenerate Portfolio and +0.52 units to the Go Fast and Win Portfolio.

Once again…11 days of a downtrend in the Index and a cool run for the content that resulted in -1.14 units in losses for the Degenerate Portfolio. Then over a two day span the Degenerate Portfolio collected +0.85 units of profit! Maximize wins…minimize losses…and USE THE INDEX TO KNOW THE CURRENT BETTING ENVIRONMENT YOU ARE WAGERING INTO FOR THAT DAY!

The pop in the TSP Index the past two days doesn’t mean the Index won’t resume a downtrend today, but it illustrates how through proper management, discipline and good wager strategy (low risk parlays with low risk straight bets to cover parlay action) that you can minimize losses in cold runs and be there to get running when things turn. How do we know of these runs…visually through the TSP Index! The TSP Index is a free tool available at TheSharpPlays.com (https://thesharpplays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/) and it takes all of a minute to review on a daily basis.

Subscribers in TSP Live get an expanded view of the TSP Index. The subscriber exclusive TSP Index table shows the sharp activity levels (average, above average, below average) on a daily basis broken down by league/sport and it also includes an assessment of which side of the market is trending…along with any special alerts or information gained through the TSP Index.

People tend to get all pissed off by losing streaks…which is silly because there is no avoiding them. Sure, I wish when you bought a TSP Live subscription, whether one week or one month, that you NEVER had a losing day, week or month…but that’s not possible. However, by riding the ups and downs you can come out ahead in the end. By playing tight when it was cold over those 11 days, the Degenerate Portfolio kept losses to only 1.14 units. At the same time, despite the cold streak, I continued having daily action in the Degenerate Portfolio in an effort to be ready for when the turn came…minimized risk, minimized losses. On January 8th the potential turn came and we got back almost half our losses (+0.45 units) that occurred over the previous 11 days…and then got another +0.40 units on January 9th!

Gambling isn’t easy, but it doesn’t have to be impossible. You can bet on a daily basis and be very successful IF you educate yourself on the betting environment and have a strategy and plan. TSP Live aims to teach bettors strategies and techniques that I have honed over almost 30 years in gambling and over 20 years as a professional gambler. You won’t win every day…but that’s OK because this business is a marathon and not a sprint!

Good luck!

As we approach the end of the NFL season, we begin to hear about the “must win” situations for teams to get into the playoffs along with many player incentives that come into play in the final week.

Let’s first discuss the “must win” situations. The problem for gamblers is that they tend to have this approach to “must win” situations as though the book is unaware that these exist and has not already worked the “must win” angle fully (and perhaps even more) into the current prices (spreads and moneylines) for those “must win” teams. Is the book going to provide value on a “must win” team when they know the public will be falling all over themselves to bet it? No, the book will likely have a price that is negative, or at best neutral value on the “must win” team. If the public is going to blind bet these teams, the book says, “let’s screw the public as much as possible on price”, and they do. So why do gamblers think betting these “must win” teams are akin to a “Lock of the Year”? I don’t know, but it has been happening for decades…each and every year…and the casual gambler never learns. What the definition of insanity again?!?! LOL!

Remember though, if fading “must win” situations won 70, 80, 90, 100% of the time…the book would adjust accordingly. Gamblers tend to be all or nothing people. If you tell the casual gambler that you really don’t want to bet on the “must win” team because they are almost ALWAYS a negative or neutral value, the casual gambler then translates that to “betting the must win team will lose 100% of the time and thereby fading the must win team will win 100% of the time”, or some other outrageously high percentage. When the angle doesn’t hit at that rate they immediately think the fade angle is bullshit, that the must win team was a value, and they give up on the fade…at which point the books smile like the Grinch on Christmas Eve!

Fading must win teams is usually where the value lies, but you aren’t going to hit 80% blind fading the must-win teams. However, over time the “must win” fade will grind a profit. The profit can be amplified by finding the key must win teams to fade. At which point you could achieve a consistent 54-57% win percentage with such a strategy.

Casual gamblers don’t think 54-57% of the time is a good win percentage. Believe it or not, the 54-57% win percentage provides you a +3 to +9% (rounded) edge against the house. That means for every $1 you wager, you can expect to return $0.03 to $0.09 cents of profit. Doesn’t sound like a lot but that change on every dollar adds up…ask any casino! Edge in craps is only 1.36% (Don’t Pass…lowest house edge in craps), which means the casino makes $0.0136 on every dollar you bet, but that means millions over time!

Anyway, enough with the math, the point is, be careful unloading on the “must win” teams because “must win” doesn’t mean “will cover”…or even “will win”.

When I am looking to a fade a “must win” team, I like to let the public run the “must win” team’s price up for me, and then I will look to fade that “must win” team. In filtering these situations I also like to look for a “must win” team that is going up against a motivated opponent. A perfect example this week is Tennessee. I do not consider this some “Lock of the Year” but just a bet I like because I think Tennessee will be motivated to play at home and Jacksonville is in a “must-win” situation. The public pushed this up from 3.5 to 5.5 and I love the 5.5 or even the 5. We’ll see how it goes, but I know for a fact there is no value chasing Jacksonville at -5.5 and likely, since the book already knew the Jags were a must win team when they set the Jags -3.5 opening price…that the Jags at -3.5 isn’t a value either!

Regarding the player props, someone passed along a few links (thank you for that) and assuming the data within in correct there are several players that are within range of achieving stats this week which will provide them some bonuses. It sounds great…I have a motivated player looking to have a big payday so they and the team will do everything to get them that payday. However, once again if some idiot on Instagram or Twitter has this information, you can be sure the books do as well and worked it into the prices. So, the prices for the following players may see those players cash the OVERs and get their incentives…or the teams may avoid those players to save a couple bucks. So…nothing is a lock betting either way. However, most casual gamblers go in expected all these players to get all their incentives and they bet that way. Just because a player wants to get a bonus does not mean the team wants to pay it out…and thereby the team could game plan around or simply cut the player out to avoid it. We see this all the time when teams sit players on the verge of getting a bonus. So, it is tough to say that a player needing an OVER on some stats metric will automatically get it. With that said, here were the most talked about players and what they need for their incentives.

Very few books have prices up for these yet, but just some things to look at and then something I will followup addendum below. For now here are the most talked about player incentives…

DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) needs 49 yards for a $1M bonus and 7 catches for a $250K bonus.

Chris Jones (KC) needs 0.5 sacks for a $1.25M bonus.

Dalton Schultz (HOU) needs 4 catches for a $250K bonus and if he gets 6 catches he gets another $250K (total $500K).

Austin Ekeler (LAC) needs 110 total (Rush & Rec) yards for $100K bonus.

Lavonte David (TB) needs 0.5 sacks for a $150K bonus.

Bet Smart…good luck!

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Article Addendum published January 11, 2024

Here’s how the player incentives finished…

Hopkins completed a pass…and got 7 catches for his $250K bonus, but unfortunately the team could not give him the big one for his 49 yard bonus of $1M. Instead Hopkins got 46 yards. Anyone betting the OVER on yards would have lost.

Christ Jones did get a sack.

Dalton Schultz got 5 catches for the first $250K bonus, but did not get the 6 catches for another $250K bonus…missed by just one grab!

Ekeler got only 49 total yards and missed his $100K bonus.

Lavonte David did not get a sack.

So, Twitter/X and Instagram were all abuzz last week about these “lock” player props because the players wanted to get incentives. In the end, out of the 7 possible bonuses…three were achieved…Hopkins got 7 catches, Jones got half a sack, and Schultz got 5 catches. A 3-4 record…not exactly a good angle as was the gist of this article going into the weekend. The vig made that 3-4 even worse.

Throw in the fact that the books were well aware of all incentives and jacked up the player props just enough to make them good negative values…knowing the public would still bet them…and bet them they did. The players didn’t get their incentives, the bettors did not get a bonus either…but the books had a nice payday on these!

Just because a team “must win” does not mean they will…but it usually means fading the “must win” team will get you point spread value as the public hammers the “must win” team because “must win” always equals “will win” (sarcasm). The theory in the previous sentence was my reason for taking the Titans +5 over “must win” Jacksonville. In the end the Titans were an outright winner!

At the same time, people bet the player props as though players needing incentives would clean up and collect all those incentives. In the end, it was the players that got nailed as incentives cashed at a 43% rate. To cash a prop with the average juice of -115 (a littler higher this week), you need to win 53.5% win percentage.

Thanks for giving this article a read!

Of all the questions that I get about TSP Live, wagering, etc., the above is the question I get asked all the time…”What Should I Bet?”

While it is the most common question, it is also the hardest for me to answer because every bettor is different.

I hear from about 10% of TSP Live subscribers. The other 90% just subscribe and renew without any fanfare or issues…I have never gotten a single message from them. The 90% are consistent subscribers and many have been with me 1,2,3+ years consistently. So, I assume the 90% of subscribers I do not hear from “get it”, and have developed their own strategies and methods for using the content. A method which has served them well…otherwise they would not be back month over month.

The other 10% of subscribers are a combination of those looking to learn, looking for advice to evolve and then a healthy number are straight lunatics…people who have no idea about the basics of true professional gambling, they do not utilize true bankroll management (although they are good at fooling themselves that they do) and they shit themselves after every losing bet…panicking within 2 minutes of the opening kickoff when their team isn’t up 21-0. It’s tough to work with the lunatic crowd, but they are also the loudest and most obnoxious of the bunch.

Given the myriad of different bettors out there who subscribe to TSP Live, there is no one answer as to what you should bet. I cannot count how many people want me to give them some mechanical strategy that if they just blind follow that strategy each and every day like a robot that they will make easy money betting in sports with little effort. I am sorry to say, making money as a professional bettor is not easy. It takes time, effort and intelligence to succeed. Many people can achieve success as countless TSP Live subscriber will attest, BUT it is not easy. Sportsbooks are not multi-billion dollar businesses because most people win at betting with no effort. So, with this in mind, let me share the three types of bettors most TSP Live subscribers seem to fit into, and then how I approach the content each day…because yes…every day is a new adventure and requires a unique approach.

One type of bettor is the person who does not like a lot of volume, who is not interested in exotics (teasers, parlays, rollovers) and will just wager on TSP Live sharp alerts (which carry a 1 unit rating…Oddmaker’s Report, TSP Live Radar, Known Bettor, KB Consensus, etc.) whenever they hit the Telegram channel. These bettors don’t use the analytics tables much, or the other selection content, but just sit back and wait for a TSP Live sharp alert to hit the Telegram channel or a 1 unit wager to hit the TSP Legal Pad (which also triggers an alert to Telegram when the Legal Pad gets updated) and then they bet it. Simple, low volume, but requires patience as there are not TSP Live sharp alerts every single day.

Another type of TSP Live bettor is the high volume bettor who wagers on anything and everything in TSP Live…all the TSP Live Radar angles, KB Consensus, Oddsmaker’s Reports, all the Algorithm Selections, all the public content (1st Quarter Algorithm, Twitter, Telegram, Go Fast And Win content, etc)…all the TSP Live subscriber content…anything they can get their hands on. It’s a style that is not suited for most gamblers. It requires a serious understanding that gambling is a grind and it requires a VERY STRONG bankroll management plan. Why? Because when you are betting volume, the swings will be that much more dramatic. Sure, you will have the days you pick up 10, 15 or even 20+ units…but you will also have the exact opposite too. Everyone can handle +15 units, but few can handle the -15 unit days…even when the -15 unit day follows a +15 unit day. So, you really need to have an honest assessment of yourself if you are going to be a volume bettor looking to grind. Having good risk and loss tolerance is ESSENTIAL for this type of bettor.

The third type of bettor, which contains the most successful TSP Live subscribers, are those WHICH DO NOT blind follow any content. These subscribers take in ALL the content put out at The Sharp Plays. These subscribers read all my notes, they use the analytics tables, they check Twitter and Telegram, they review all the exotic action (parlays, teasers and rollovers), they review all the TSP Live alerts and public content (like the Go Fast And Win tables), and combine all that TSP information with any other information they get from outside The Sharp Plays. At this point they take this boatload of information and then do something many novice…and many veteran gamblers will avoid doing…these subscribers use their brains (by looking at the performance metrics/records for the angles reported, comparing their own handicap of the games, assessing their current risk posture, assessing recent performance, etc.) to filter down all the content to the wagers they like the most…OR DARE I SAY PASS…because nothing fit their strategy for that day. These subscribers rarely blind follow any content. By being fluid based on the day and the action, these bettors are the most versatile and versatility (being able to think on your feet) is key to gambling success.

I am sure there are more bettors out there which mix the above types of bettors, but the three styles above tend to account for the vast majority of TSP Live subscribers. How do I wager using TSP content?

First, I am a very passive bettor. Although I consider myself passive, I am open to more risk than many, but I do not nearly bet every angle. I have strong bankroll management, I have a full tolerance for losing, and I enjoy using exotics regularly in my wagering. I accept that exotics, especially parlays, won’t win at a high percentage, but if I am patient and grind, over the long-term my exotics will be solid performers that provide a nice net profit year over year. I accept that mathematically (good article on statistics of drawdowns in sports betting) as an almost daily bettor that I am at risk for multiple drawdowns of up to -25 units (or more) in any given year. Yes…imagine how most would handle a 25 unit drawdown, but that is highly probable for a daily bettor. It’s not me saying it, it’s a full statistical analysis of sports betting, house edge, sharp bettor edge, etc. that generates this drawdown assessment. So, I am not like most bettors. Most bettors lack the tolerance for losing, which is essential in any gambling endeavor. Even if you make millions betting sports…there will be losses…A LOT OF THEM…so you need to be able to handle them. I realize this is not an easy living, but if I put in the time and effort can provide some healthy returns year over year. I have two different bankrolls. I have a serious bankroll and then I have a degenerate bankroll. The serious bankroll is for my material wagers. The degenerate bankroll is for high risk rollovers, pizza action, etc.

So, the above breaks down some of the characteristics I have as a bettor. With those characteristics in mind, how do I approach TSP content?

1. I do not blind bet ANY angles. Sure there is content I tend to follow more often than not (like Book Positions, Group Buys or KB Consensus) but I DO NOT blind follow ANY angles. I assess every angle that comes out of TSP Live with an open mind and checking deeper into any wager before I proceed. I look at what the public is betting, what any models I have say, what bettors I respect are doing on the game, etc…and above all…how I feel about the bet/my handicap of the event.
   • IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT EVEN THOUGH EVERY TSP LIVE ALERT WILL CARRY A 1 UNIT RATING…IT DOES NOT MEAN I AM WAGERING 1 UNIT ON THAT ANGLE. IT SIMPLY MEANS THE ANGLE WILL BE LOGGED AND TRACK TO CONTINUE THE PERFORMANCE METRIC (I.E. RECORD) OF THAT ANGLE.
     
2. I look at whether sharp betting volumes are average, above average or below average for that sport that day (TSP Live Index table)…which tells me a little about the potential value in that league for the day. I look at whether the TSP Index is trending up…and thereby markets favor sharps and are against the public or trending down and markets favor the public and are against the sharps.
   • I am more than happy to pass on days when volume is below average in a sport AND/OR the Index is trending down.
   • My goal is not to have action every day. I feel it is essential to work in passing days into your gambling. Gambling is taxing both physically and mentally…and getting a day off here and there is healthy.
     
3. I use exotics when I have concerns about the markets (to keep my unit risk low versus firing multiple straight bets). I will also use exotics when I am on a run and playing strong. Yes…exotics play a larger part in my betting than most professional bettors. It works for me, it doesn’t work for them…it is what it is. However, to use exotics you MUST have a high tolerance for losses. I will often lose 10 or 15+ units on parlays until I hit a run and collect 22 units during that run. At which point my parlays are +12 or +7 units. Sounds great, but few could weather the -10 or -15 unit run until the big win finally came. Most gamblers, especially casual bettors, do not have the same level of patience I do.
   
4. Once I have gone through my assessment of the angles and the markets, then I will come up with any wagers I am going to pursue that fit my style and strategy.

So, while my strategy works for me, it may not work for 98% of gamblers, and that is the moral of the story. You have to assess the type of bettor you are, your risk tolerance, your loss tolerance, your bankroll management plan (or lack thereof), and above all your goals. If you are just betting for entertainment then you can approach the content DRAMATICALLY different from someone who is trying to earn an income bettor.

I hope the above helps you develop your own personal wagering strategy for using The Sharp Plays content or really ANY gambling content out there. Thanks for checking out The Sharp Plays and TSP Live! I wish you the ultimate success and enjoyment out of your gambling adventure!

Good luck!