Category: TSP Live Education

You know, it’s funny. Someone said to me recently that I must have a bunch of new customers in because I have been in rare form with my morning messages. Yes, as with any new football season a bunch of novices and rookies come out of the woodwork looking to turn their $1,000 bankroll into $100,000 by the end of September. I get it too…I was once one of them back in the 90’s during high school. Somehow I convinced myself that my $20 bets would lead to a steady weekly income where I could buy a car and have anything that a high school student could dream. When that sort of thing doesn’t happen…the novice feels the reason can’t be their stupid ideology about gambling that was the problem.

From April through July…there is no need for this sort of discussion. The people who are with TSP Live in those summer months are my people…true degenerates…veteran gamblers! They celebrate the wins, they brush off the losses, and they know this whole thing is a long-term game. A losing month…no big deal…the wins always come…that’s how a summer TSP Live subscriber operates. These true degenerates love the action, but they also trust the process and have patience. Come football season, a whole new batch of wannabe sports millionaires shows up. You can surely turn a very healthy income in sports betting…trust me, I know…but not without accepting reality…and being patient. Yes, 31 years ago when I placed my first bet offshore…underaged…I was a newbie too with an idea as to how gambling was “supposed to work” and that somehow despite my inexperience I would immediately be successful at a profession where the math is slanted strong against you…and math is a tough opponent.

I am not trying to be a dick by putting down these newbies…it’s more that I am trying to give them a blunt wakeup call. The goal being to open their eyes in a way nobody did for me in my early months and years gambling. In the process, I hope to save these newbies money and a lot of stress along the way.

These newbies come into something like TSP Live after having navigated social media for weeks, months and years…seeing all the bullshit pictures of stacks of money, big tickets and easy wins posted by so-called professional bettors. They see how some flashy idiot who has a Game of the Year every week just has racks upon racks of cash…so if that moron can do it…surely our newbie can too! The problem is, you are only seeing a small portion of the picture…but like a good drug dealer, the unsavory tout has sold you on the high, but left out the side effects. You would be surprised how many of the pundits and “professional bettors” who show up on TV and radio are losing degenerate gamblers who piss away money at a hysterical pace. I laugh when I see some “professional” brought on a TV or radio show as the hosts bow down to this person for their incredible gambling intelligence. Little do they know a friend at their favorite book told me how that guy is one of their biggest losers!

So don’t buy the hype. Accept and realize that sportsbooks and casinos have all the math on their side. DraftKings doesn’t have an EIGHTEEN BILLION dollar market cap because the majority of people win! No my friends, only 3-4% of gamblers qualify to earn the “professional and profitable” bettor badges! If you want to be one, you can get there, but you need to realize it will require effort!

Unlike those on social media who just want to suck you in by showing the glamour side to gambling…here at The Sharp Plays, the goal is to let you know about the side effects like losing, cold runs, large drawdowns, etc., because that’s a part of gambling. If you only want to see the good and don’t accept the bad…this whole thing will be a very bad road for you.

So, leave your preconceived notions about professional gambling at the door, come with an open mind and I can show you how much fun and profitable this business can be…but there will be losses…lots of them. It’s just over time there will also be wins…and the wins will outnumber the losses. Patience is a virtue and it is also the key to being a pro.

We all start somewhere! I started betting in the 90’s with an average bet of just $5. A big bet for me at the time was $20…and $50 was like betting a million! I called 1-900 numbers for “winners” from Jack Price, Johnny Demarco and MANY others…paying $10, $20, $50 per call…none of it worked. I kept losing and losing. I lost the hard way. Then someone tried to teach me the business when I got into the offshore industry in the late 90’s. I thought his ideas were bullshit as to how professional gambling worked…and I fought him HARD despite his incredible experience and success. Finally, I relented and did it his way…I have never had a losing year since and I realized that the power in winning at sports betting is not trying to win 60-80% of your bets…nobody does over the long-term. However, you can make MILLIONS with a 55% win percentage, a 5-6% ROI and some patience! Fast forward 30 years…and while I do not discuss numbers…my average bet is no longer $5, but an amount I never would have imagined achieving back in those early days. You can get there too!

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Lesson #1: The TSP Index…the ULTIMATE sports betting barometer!

You will hear me talk about the TSP Index a lot! The TSP Index is the output of a calculation which assesses the performance of ALL the money across ALL leagues active that’s placed by public rated bettors and sharp rated bettors at two large offshore sportsbooks. How does it do this? Each sportsbook rates their bettors using various tiers of public and sharp rating. The ratings are done by the sportsbook’s systems based on a variety of factors and for every player in their system. My calculation, which is done automatically at the end of each day by a program, looks at combined ROI of all the sharp rated bettors who were in action for the previous day (both by league and overall) and compares it to the combined ROI of all the public bettors (again by league and overall) who were in action for the previous day. It then dials this performance down and rates it on a scale. The scale runs -5 to +5. A public market is negative, a sharp market is positive. Most markets will end up in the positive because the public as a whole always loses and sharps as a whole always outperform the public by comparison. However, even though the TSP Index reading might normally be a positive number, there are still fluctuations up and down that occur within that number. These up & down fluctuations help us to see which side of the market (public or sharp) is on a run. There is a moving average on the TSP Index chart which helps to see who has the momentum. Sometimes the TSP Index line is above the moving average which indicates sharps are on a run, sometimes the TSP Index line is below the moving average line which indicates the public is on a run. For more details, and to see the actual charting and data, visit TheSharpPlays.com/the-sharp-plays-index/.

All this might seem complex, but I do the job of reading the Index for you each day in TSP Live if you don’t want to do it yourself. You can find a TSP Index table on the TSP Live Dashboard (link in the website menu, in every TSP Live alert, on Telegram with every alert, on the home page, and directly at https://tsp.live/tsp-live-alerts/). Under the “Informational Links” menu on the TSP Live Dashboard page, you will see the second link contains “TSP Index” in it. Click that and scroll down for the TSP Index table. The table tells you the current trend of Index (UP or DOWN), what that trend means, my comments on the Index, and how each league is trending along with an indicator (1, 0, -1) that illustrates how active sharp money is in the league…details on the table itself. The TSP Index is a great tool, but if you are like the haters, you will dismiss it immediately because you can’t understand it. Followers who spend the time to monitor the Index will say that its predictive power for catching hot and cold runs right away is far too consistent to be dumb luck. The Index was the first analytical tool I launched at the website back in 2019 and it has been running every single day since for a reason!

The TSP Index operates on a theory I came up with when enjoying the casino games of craps and primarily baccarat. If you have ever played baccarat you know it is a game of playing the runs. You play the bank run, you play the player run. There are patterns to the game that players try to predict. In your own gambling, do you ever notice that you have runs where you can’t hit a bet and all the breaks go against you, and then that run is eventually followed by a run where you can’t miss a bet and all the breaks go in your favor? Every time you walk into a casino there is usually a point where you are up money because of this cyclical dynamic. Imagine if you had a tool that could give you a high probability of knowing when a hot run is getting started? You could expand you risk, you could press on games, you could take shots on more exotic wagers and ride the run! What if you could know that the first bad day is the start of a potential cold run…you could tighten up your action, have lower risk out there and protect bankroll. The TSP Index aims to provide this early warning system for your betting. Check it out at the links above!

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Lesson 2: The purpose of reporting sharp buys, group action, and other intel along with having various analytics tables is to make you a more informed bettor, not to prompt you to place a wager on every bit of content published.

If you are new to TSP Live…for the first couple weeks after joining…just follow the action in the TSP Portfolio and ignore ALL THE OTHER CONTENT for wagering purposes. While you will be ignoring the other content for wagering purposes, please do not ignore all the other content altogether. Educate yourself on the other content through the resources on TSP.Live (there’s even an “Education” section at https://tsp.live/education/ which is also in the website menu) and TheSharpPlays.com. Then take the time to read through the alerts, learn the type of information that gets posted, check out the logs and records at TheSharpPlays.com so you can analyze the angles, view the analytics tables in TSP Live like the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus and Book Needs each day, learn about TSP Insiders paid and bonus content, etc….but when it comes to what you bet during the early days of being a TSP Live subscriber or TSP follower…just follow the TSP Portfolio wagers. The TSP Portfolio action is always in an easy to locate green box in every TSP Live alert. The Portfolio action is SPECIFICALLY designed for the novice bettor to be low risk, high reward/ROI and with low volatility.

After a couple weeks of educating yourself and reviewing all the content, or for some just a couple days, you will then have a good idea of how you prefer to view what gets reported as part of TSP Live and The Sharp Plays. You might see free and/or paid angles reported that you would like to add to your own betting portfolio and regardless of what the TSP Portfolio is doing OR you might decide that all the other content outside of the TSP Portfolio is not for you. Maybe you don’t quite understand it, maybe it seems like too much noise, maybe it all sucks to you…whatever! So, you decide to stick to the TSP Portfolio and that’s it. Perfect! Just decide how much you want to wager per 0.1 units of TSP Portfolio risk, ignore all the other content…and grind! It sounds like an excellent strategy to me because it sounds like it fits you…and that’s the key to any strategy!

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I covered a couple lesson to get relatively up to speed on TSP Live. Now let’s discuss the key rules to being a professional or advantage bettor.

The first rule of sports betting as an advantage player is not to press or chase off a loss or during a cold run! Sure, we are all degenerates and we all will have little lapses in judgement, but the key is keeping those in check is VITAL to long-term success.

When I started as a bettor I was a total degenerate. There were times I chased on my bets (many times) until I basically could not bet anymore and ran out of credit and/or cash! Ugly shit, but most (likely all) of you know what I am talking about. However, as I became an advantage player, I began to have a different outlook on betting. I no longer saw the need to get even today because I trusted that as an advantage player, my run would be coming. So…no biggie that I lost today…maybe not tomorrow or the next day…but I will get mine! I believed that the cold run was a good thing because it meant another hot run was ahead…I just had to be smart and weather the ice storm to enjoy the heat once again.

There will likely be a lot of occasions in the future where you chase, but hopefully those chases are very minor compared to the past. I am absolutely guilty of chasing at times…still. However, the difference now than when I was a maniac is I have accepted the truth that today may suck, this week may suck, this month may suck, but things won’t always suck. Every day of cold action that I can survive is another day closer to the hot run. Going through a cold run is like counting down the days to Christmas as a child…it’s coming and each day passed is a day closer to paradise…and presents!! Like Christmas, a true hot run is a drug like no other…and why all of you are here…to savor those hot runs and all the profits, excitement, adrenaline, and dopamine highs that come with it!

Since going from total degenerate to partial degenerate, I have embraced patience over urgency to get even. I have embraced faith in the long-term performance of the content to provide me a hot run after every cold run. I trust that when the content delivers that hot run, it will erase my losses and provide me a sweet profit on top. The trust in the future has DRAMATICALLY removed the need/desire to chase in the present. Once you lose that desire to chase…gambling can be so much more enjoyable, less stress and profitable! Burning up bankroll by chasing during a cold run destroys your potential profit margin for the INEVITABLE hot run to follow!

The second rule is to accept gambling reality. The longer you hold inaccurate preconceived notions about how professional gambling works…the more financial pain, stress and frustrations you will experience in your betting.

The third rule is to get used to losing…because it is going to happen…A LOT! I have probably lost around 50,000 bets in my life! The good news is I have won more than I have lost and that’s the simple math that works in this game.

You MUST get used to handling losses. I recently had a discussion in TSP Live because of a handful of maniacs who were beside themselves due to losses in the TSP Portfolio during Week 1 of NCAAF. How big were these losses? Well, the Portfolio was down as much as 0.66 units in September. Not exactly a lot given the average bet lifetime for the Portfolio is around 0.16 units. Still…despite the incredible ROI for the TSP Portfolio…people just could not handle what is really a very minor loss.

When faced with losses, inexperienced gamblers automatically assume that something was done wrong. The goal of your gambling was to win…you did not…so you did the math wrong or didn’t analyze the games properly. No…that’s really not it. How about simply that in a game of luck, even the best gamblers and strategies will have losses. So, accept those losses and keep grinding…the wins always come in the end!

The other thing inexperienced gamblers tend to do is they want to search for a system that never has losses. These guys try to perfectly time the ebbs and flows of their betting. If you can’t handle losses in betting you are probably not experienced enough to perfectly time the ups and downs of the TSP index and know when is best to fade the sharps and follow the public. Instead, STOP THINKING! Stop trying to do something that is IMPOSSIBLE in gambling which is removing losses. Find a winning strategy, be happy that because you have a winning strategy that you are better than 96 out of 100 people you see in the sportsbooks…and just ride the good and the bad…knowing that everything will workout fine in the end!

The TSP Portfolio truly blows away ANY gambling content ANYWHERE. The wagers are logged, the results are calculated and the ROI blows away all the competition. Not to mention, following the TSP Portfolio takes less THAN FIVE MINUTES EACH DAY!! Last year saw losing months of -3.37 units, -3.11 units, -1.90 units and yet the Portfolio is +33.8 units lifetime…the method works. There will be losses, but the Portfolio will eventually grind those losses back and put some profit into our pockets on top!

As I told someone recently…you have Margot Robbie in front of you…and she is all yours. Stop trying to make her hotter or sexier…just enjoy what you have! It doesn’t get better than the TSP Portfolio…you can search…you’ll eventually see for yourself. So, stop trying to lessen the losses of content that has a lifetime ROI over +17%! It’s light years away from the next profitable service out there. It does not get any better, just sit back and ride the ups and downs! Stop trying to make Margot sexier.

There’s not a lot of advanced strategies and techniques here because this is the “newbies guide”. However, if you can master the simple things in this article…your time as a newbie will be brief and you will have a strong head start to being a consistent and long-term profitable bettor…earning that legitimate “Professional Gambler” badge that is so coveted among degenerates.

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If you have questions, please reach out on Telegram (t.me/TheSharpPlays) or use the Contact form here on the TSP.Live website!

Good luck!

We have arrived at the first full week of regular season football action! It is time to say it one more time…

The season will be filled with some incredibly epic winning weeks…I cannot wait! Those weeks when everything you bet turns to gold and you have parlay tickets all riding on one last bet…and that bet comes through which exponentially expands your profits in one hot weekend! It is as exciting as gambling gets and it is the reason all of us are here together right now!

However, it’s not all roses no matter how good you are. Last year, the TSP Portfolio achieved an over +18% ROI, but still had losing months in 2023 and had a losing November during football. There were bad beats & bad breaks followed by bad beats & bad breaks, followed by bad beats & bad breaks…you get the idea. Even this year, the TSP Portfolio has not had a losing month in all of 2024. Maybe it can survive 2024 without a losing month…or maybe one or more is coming. We just don’t know…so we can’t bet as though we know the future. However, a losing month is not the end of the world!

Last year people quit the content after a winning September & October was followed by a losing November…and those folks then missed one of the most epic Decembers EVER! Don’t try to time the runs…don’t leave when it is cold. If you leave when it is cold all you are doing is guaranteeing that you won’t be here for the inevitable hot run that gets it all back and then some…because gambling is nothing but a series of alternating hot and cold runs.

Be patient, be disciplined and realize that even if today sucks, tomorrow might not…so don’t blow up your bankroll chasing today! I have no doubt it will be yet another winning season of The Sharp Plays content (13 years running since TSP content came online in 2011), but how we get to that profit is anyone’s guess. Whether it is through 6 straight winning months of football, or 5 losing months and an epic month in the mix…there’s a very high confidence there will be a nice profit in hand when the dust settles on Super Bowl Sunday!

Thank you for joining me on this journey and good luck in your action! Let’s have some fun together once again this season…sweating the wins and venting the losses…together!

#RHC4Life🏹 #TSPArmy

With love,
TSP

In 2019, paid content was sold for $25 per selection…two selections per week…for a total monthly cost of $200 for 8 selections. In 2020, paid content went from two plays per week to daily content providing an arsenal of angles and information…all for only $150 per month! The content went up exponentially, but price went down by $50 per month. Two years later, in 2022, the price of TSP Live increased by $9.99 from $150 per month to $159.99.

The TSP Live subscription is easily the best value in sports gambling! Sorry, it’s not even a question. TSP Live and the TSP Portfolio blow away ALL competition in performance! TSP Live’s cost is far below all competitors and far below most of the scamdicappers too. You will find long-term losers charging $100-$150 per week and $250-$600 per month for their garbage…which people clearly buy year after year.

IS A TSP LIVE SUBSCRIPTION WORTH IT?!?!?

Just for 2024, a $100 per 0.1 unit TSP Portfolio bettor is +$8,700 (Portfolio is +8.7 units in 2024 which would be eighty seven 0.1 unit wagers) with a subscription cost of $1,279 ($159.99 x 8)…for a net profit of +$7,421! The average risk for the TSP Portfolio in 2024 has been just 0.13 units…or only $130 in this example!

Someone betting $500 per 0.1 units would have an average wager of $650 and a gross profit of $43,500 in 2024, of which $42,221 would remain as profit after TSP Live fees ($1,279) are deducted!

How do other services stack up? The TSP Portfolio has a +10.6% ROI for 2024. Two of the most public services, which actually do have a long-term profit, would be Dr. Bob and Right Angle Sports. Based on stats from their websites, Dr. Bob Sports has a roughly +4.5% ROI. Dr. Bob operates a sports service for NCAAF, NFL and NCAAB. Dr. Bob’s service cost for all three sports works out to roughly $785 PER MONTH. Right Angle Sports is another service that has seen success through the years, although I believe they had to stop their NCAA basketball service this season due to “issues”. Still, for only their NFL and NCAAF packages, the cost for RAS works out to $788 per month to access a roughly +6.0% ROI achieved by RAS. So, here are two known services, with long-term positive ROIs, albeit smaller ROI’s than the TSP Portfolio, charging 5X the current cost of TSP Live…and every single TSP Live sports subscription sold covers ALL SPORTS each month…not just select sports!

Based on current market prices, combined with its performance, a TSP Live subscription is CLEARLY underpriced…by a LARGE margin! The goal at The Sharp Plays is not to pick your pockets…but The Sharp Plays is also not a charity for degenerate gamblers either. So, prices are going up after two years of holding prices steady. I hope you will find the increases very fair given the performance provided and the market prices out there.

Monthly TSP Live subscription will be going from $159.99 to $179.99
-Still below the $200 per month that paid TSP content cost in 2019…5 years ago!
-Using the new monthly price, our $100 bettor’s net profit would be reduced by $160 for 2024. So, the $100 per 0.1 unit bettor’s 2024 net profit would drop from $7,421 to $7,261…still pretty damn good given ONLY A $130 AVERAGE WAGER (0.13 units) for that return!

Weekly TSP Live subscription will be going from $50.00 to $54.99

Annual TSP Live subscription will be going from $1,650 to $1,825 ($152 per month)

Football Season TSP Live subscription (September 1st, 2024 through February 20, 2025) will be going from $850 to $950 ($158 per month)

TSP Insiders (Tony & The Wolf) will open the season priced at $20-$30 per selection when available.
-TSP Insiders will have regular sales and discounts on selections, beyond the discounts provided to TSP Live subscribers…along with other promotions to further reduce the overall selection cost. For example, one play at $20 and the next two at $10 results in a per selection cost of $13 and not $20.

-IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT TSP INSIDERS WILL NOT WIN EVERY WAGER. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONS YOU PAY FOR A SELECTION AND LOSE THE WAGER AS WELL. IT IS UNAVOIDABLE. However, the expectation is, like everything at The Sharp Plays, the wins will offset the losses and like TSP Live, the cost to enjoy access to TSP Insiders will provide a healthy net profit after fees!

The prices above will go into effect on Wednesday, August 28th, when the football season long and the September subscriptions launch!

Thanks as always for the support which makes everything The Sharp Plays possible, and here’s to ANOTHER GREAT FOOTBALL SEASON AHEAD!

Good luck!

I will have pricing for football season published tomorrow around this same time. So, keep an eye on the Telegram channel.

Every year I start by saying the same thing…it’s an exciting time, but for your own sake, have a realistic expectation of what is ahead this football season. There will be ups and downs. There will be epic wins and depressing losses. There will be winning days, weeks and months…and losing days, weeks, and maybe even months. You never know what you will get, so don’t go in with a plan as to how you are going to make your money this season. Every season plays out differently and if you have an expectation, all you are doing is setting yourself up to be disappointed. Lady Luck doesn’t give a shit about your plans!

Last season, TSP Live content saw a winning September and October, but November lost due to a three week cold stretch during the month. When the three weeks were over…the content absolutely printed money through the end of the year (2023). What do I mean by “printed money?!? Well…

The TSP Portfolio in December 2023 picked up a WHOPPING +12.7 units…on an average risk per wager of ONLY 0.22 units…DELIVERING AN INCREDIBLE +47.3% ROI for the month!

A +47.3% ROI means that for every $1.00 you risked on TSP Portfolio wagers in December, you got back $0.473 in profit!

Some people completely lost their minds after three losing weeks back to back to back in November…and quit TSP content…regardless of the winning performance for the football season up to that three week stretch. Those same people then missed a record breaking December! The folks who missed the run did so because they could not be patient and wait out the cold run which inevitably leads to the next hot run…and it sure was hot! If you believe the pro’s don’t have cold runs then either you are new to this business (welcome…and I hope to help educate you on the ins and outs of gambling) or a moron…there are no other options.

If you would like further football season prep, you can read the article I put out at this time last year detailing lessons to take into the football season: TheSharpPlays.com/football-strategy-2023-24-edition/

With my “get ready” disclaimers out of the way, what is the plan for football 2024-25?

First, the NCAAF and NFL futures report will be published Wednesday, August 28th!

The TSP Portfolio will be the featured content given its performance since launching almost two years ago. It has been a fan favorite as it provides a guide on how I use the overwhelming amount of content delivered by The Sharp Plays. The difference with the Portfolio for the season ahead will be that the Portfolio will incorporate more of the angles on the analytics tables (TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus) and the content itself (like Group Buys and props). Last year I did not use many of the TSP Live Radar and KB Consensus angles because they were being graded on a 1 unit basis…and people wrongly assumed they should be betting it for 1 unit plus the Portfolio wager. The purpose of 1 unit grading for angles was to simply to develop a performance metric for assessment, not as a wagering guide. A performance metric is simply creating a record and ROI so when an angle appears you have a frame of reference as to how that angle performs (wins, losses, win percentage and ROI). Given the Portfolio has been the featured content each day, I believe many people understand the Portfolio is the wagering guide on how I use the content and the logging and grading of angles is solely to maintain a performance metric. So, the Portfolio will be using many of the analytics angles and intel (like Group Buys or Prop Fades for example) for wagers.

What about wager size for the TSP Portfolio?

In football, the average TSP Portfolio wager tends to be 0.22 units. However, risk can run over 1 unit if the setup is there to warrant such a wager…or I am in the midst of a rollover. As a reminder, the TSP Portfolio is designed for novice bettors in terms of unit risk. Advanced bettors typically will use a multiple of the risk listed. For example, I regularly discuss in the content that I use a 5x multiple…meaning when the TSP Portfolio has a 0.22 unit wager, I am risking 1.1 units…or when the TSP Portfolio makes 12.7 units of profit in December 2023…yeah, that was a +63.5 unit December! See what I mean about record-breaking?!?

Signup for TSP Live @ https://TSP.Live/tsp-live

The Sharp Plays content will cover every sport in action during the football season…it is never just about football. However, football will get priority in terms of coverage. Once football has been reviewed in full, if there is time, then The Sharp Plays will dive into the action in other sports for that day. It does mean that Saturday and Sunday will mostly concentrate on football given the size of the cards and the action. I know we all love Saturday Premier League, but a full Saturday NCAAF card gets priority. Once that NCAAF card is covered in full in the morning, I will check out soccer or whatever other sports are going on and report any information for those as well. If it is a busy day of action, nothing beyond football will likely be covered…FYI.

As you probably have already noticed on the TSP.Live Sports Dashboard (link in website menu and on home page), football season will see the return (they are active right now) of the TSP Live Radar table, the KB Consensus table and the Book Needs table. The KB Consensus is one tool that gets everyone’s blood flowing. The records speak for themselves on all these tools…and yes, they are back and active as I type this article right now. It’s a quiet Week 0 so far, so no angles popping yet on the tables…but I expect something to show as the week moves along and action comes in.

The Oddsmaker’s Report intel is something that is really present throughout The Sharp Plays content almost every single day of the year. Just because a specific TSP Live Oddsmaker’s Report alert isn’t issued doesn’t mean the intel from the book’s chat is not constantly flowing into The Sharp Plays and present within the content in various ways. However, during football there is enough high level content that individual Oddsmaker’s Report alerts will be issued…so yes, those are back too!

Last year, the Go Fast and Win weekly podcast, hosted by Fake Morgan Freeman, replaced the TSP Newsletter and delivered a wealth of information in 10 minutes or less…typically 5 minutes or less. The podcast will return again next week for Week 1 of NCAAF and will run through March Madness…with only a couple weeks off in the mix! Each week will feature selections that carry TSP Portfolio unit ratings as well!

The free content for football will revolve around the TSP Bot on Telegram reporting sharp buys & other information. The day will start with the free Score Prediction analytic posted to Twitter and Telegram. The Score Prediction analytic was solid in football last year and I hope for the same this year for my lovable freeloaders out there! I appreciate you following!!

The new content launched for this football season is TSPInsiders.com! The season will start out with just Tony and The Wolf as the sources available for purchase…but will likely expand before the season comes to a conclusion. Sources at TSP Insiders will continue to provide bonus content to TSP Live Sports subscribers. Sources will also have paid selections each week, but I am not looking to have an overwhelming amount of paid TSP Insiders content. The goal will be to keep it to 0-5 paid selections each week. If someone is running hot, they might ride the run until it dies and perhaps could have 5 or more selections in a week. More selections will be a good thing because again it means someone is running HOT!!! If someone is cold, obviously the sources are not going to be firing a lot of selections, let alone paid selections, so there might not be any TSP Insiders selections in a given week depending on short term performance. On average, I would expect 1-3 paid content selections from TSP Insiders each week to open the season.

Yes, TSP Insiders is an extra expense, but it is not necessary to success. It will likely expand your profits and returns for football, but as the TSP Portfolio has shown up to this point, it does just fine on its own. So, if purchasing TSP Insiders selections does not fit within your bankroll, don’t sweat it. Keep grinding and you will get there financially if you want to purchase them down the road. If not, once again…the TSP Portfolio does just fine without the added TSP Insiders content.

Expect the TSP Portfolio to incorporate all the paid TSP Insider selections (which will comprise around 10% of the Portfolio’s action this football season). The other 90% of TSP Portfolio wagers will come from the free and paid TSP content in the form of wagers from the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus, Oddsmaker’s Report, bets I like, bonus content in TSP Live from TSP Insiders sources and anything else that pops up and looks good!

When it comes to my strategy…my strategy is very fluid. I go in with no expectation or preconceived notions. I will follow the TSP Index as a guide on how to wager, I am open to all wager types and sizes. My strategy will be dictated by performance of the content and my feel through 30+ years of gambling experience and will be reassessed by me every single day. In the end, I expect another winning season but as I have said…how we get there is anyone’s guess. So, I will just leave emotion at the door, be patient and grind! Summers have always been very volatile for performance, but this summer was one of the most consistent and best summers of content of all-time. I believe this was the case not because it was a lucky year, but because I was patient and listened to the Index. I didn’t force MLB angles just because it was MLB season and it paid off in avoiding a lot of bad beats and bad breaks along the way…but at the same time there was still plenty of regular MLB action in the mix.

Feel free to send any questions by completing the form on the contact page. Thanks again for joining The Sharp Plays on another journey through football! Get your helmet on and strap in…it’s going to be a WILD RIDE…LET’S GRIND!!

Good luck!

Signup for TSP Live @ https://TSP.Live/tsp-live

The comment comes up ALL THE TIME when it comes to the sale of sports selections… “If someone is so good at betting then why do they sell their picks? Why not just bet their selections and make a fortune?“

My response…If someone is involved in gambling to make money, then why not do both? Gaining money tends to be the first or second reason that people gamble. So, seems like capitalism to me.

I understand the reasoning and thought process, but such thoughts are based more on anger at sports handicappers/touts/professionals/services versus rational thought. So, let’s look at the math…because the numbers tell THE WHOLE story.

At the time of this article, the TSP Portfolio has an ROI over +11% this year, +18% lifetime, on 1167 wagers, and a net profit of +35.38 units since it launched January 1, 2023. A professional betting $5,000 per 0.1 units (average wager for TSP Portfolio is 0.17 units meaning average risk is $8,500) would be up +$1,769,000 ($5,000 x 353.8).

For 2024 specifically, the professional would be up $462,000. The TSP Portfolio in 2024 is +9.24 units, with an average wager of roughly 0.14 units ($7,000 for the professional in this example betting $5,000 per 0.1 units). The math to get $462,000 is that we would take 92.4 x $5000 (92.4 x 0.1 = 9.24 units).

After wagering, let’s pretend the professional could sell this same content for $100 per month to 1000 people. Through sales, the professional would be provided an additional income of $100,000 per month. So, we are into August…selling this information would have provided an additional $800,000 for 2024 for a total of $2,000,000 since January 1st, 2023 ($100K x 20 months).

So, the professional wagering $5,000 per 0.1 units, for an average 2024 wager of $8,500 since January 1st, 2023 when the TSP Portfolio launched, more than doubled their income by reselling their wagers AFTER they bet those same wagers for themselves.

2023 & 2024 Wagering Income:  $1,769,000

2023 & 2024 Selection Sales Income: $2,000,000

Total Income:  $3,769,000

Sure, the professional is doing pretty well picking up $1.8M from wagering, but I don’t know too many people who would turn down an additional $2M doing nothing other than letting other people know their wagers after they place them!

Why not leave out the petty activity of selling selections and just bet $50,000 per 0.1 units instead of $5,000? At a certain point you can only bet so much on an Olympic soccer match, a preseason NFL game, or a WNBA game. So, you have to have a unit wager that you can get down equally regardless of the sport. TSP Portfolio wagers tend to be 1.0 unit or less, so that would mean the $5,000 bettor would need to be able to get $50,000 down on anything from NFL (easy) to WNBA (some decent effort)…including parlays, teasers and rollovers. The $50,000 per 0.1 unit bettor would need to get $500,000 down on a 1 unit play. Again, NFL or soccer…no problem…ATP Montreal…gonna be tough. So, the long story short is professionals eventually top out on what they can bet based on access to outs and the ability to get down. Reselling their wagers after they have achieved their position is a great way to boost revenue and income….often in a material way even for higher-end bettors.

Sports gambling content allows for multiple layers of monetization of the same angle and thereby anyone good at it can achieve solid returns from their content. Especially in a world where books are more and more aggressive in limiting players and minimizing the action sharps can get down. In these situations, players like yourself who purchase the content allow the professional to further expand their returns off their action!

So…don’t hate the player, hate the game!

Good luck!

The time has come! TSP Insiders (httsp://TSPInsiders.com) is going live for its Grand Opening!

So now that TSP Insiders is officially open, what the hell happens next?

First, you can expect more selections from Tony and The Wolf to be available moving forward. It does not mean they will each have a play a day or multiple plays each day. Most days…they won’t have any plays. One of the nice things of not having a subscription is there is no obligation to provide content for a given day. Instead, Tony, The Wolf, or any of the upcoming TSP Insiders’ sources have the freedom to post selection ONLY when something fits what they like…not because they have subscribers waiting on plays and thereby force angles out. A typical Saturday or Sunday during football season would likely see, at most, 1-3 plays from TSP Insiders as a whole…versus 10-15 as some might envision from 3-5 sources. My goal is not quantity, but adding just a little additional content from sources other than The Sharp Plays for anyone who is interested in acquiring more information.

Second, pricing will vary. TSP Insiders’ sources are given the freedom to charge what they want, with most packages being for a single selection or a single day. If a source decides they want to charge $5,000 for a selection, they are welcome to do it…but I assume it will just be a waste of time for them since nobody will buy. Despite this freedom for sources, most will be priced in the $10-$100 range per selection or for the day. Yes, I realize $50 or $100 might seem outrageously high to some, especially given TSP Live works out to roughly $5 per day…but please understand that TSP Live is VASTLY underpriced compared to its competitors AND given its performance. TSP Insiders purchases are not taxes…you are not required by law to pay/purchase. When I started gambling in the 90’s and was calling 1-900 numbers for sports picks, I was paying $10-$100 per call…some 25-30 years ago. So, I don’t see these prices outside the realm given they were standard 30+ years ago. While some selections might be on the higher-end, try not to panic over something that hasn’t happened yet. The majority of purchases (single selection or full day pass) will be $10-$30.

A reminder…TSP Live subscribers (https://TSP.Live/tsp-live) will receive 20% off ALL TSP Insiders purchases…including 20% off any sale or promo prices. Oh and no more remembering promo codes, TSP Live subscribers will have access to special links whereby the prices will already be discounted for them!

Third, despite concerns people might have about prices, there will be A LOT of specials and promotions. As a requirement to be a TSP Insider is that a source must be willing to regularly offer specials and to provide quality bonus content to TSP Live from time to time. So, there will be many occasions where a selection that is usually $25, $50 or $100 is sold for $1, $5, $10, $15.

Fourth, last week Tony had a selection and stated that if the play lost, he would post the rest of his August bets on Telegram for free. Granted this would be free then for people who purchased the selection and for people who did not, but there is no real easy solution. Providing a promo code doesn’t work well as people forget the code and since these guys don’t do memberships at this time it is tough to provide “the next 7 days free”…because they might not have anything. Instead, there will be unique guarantees provided on selections from time to time. Something like…Wolf has a play today for $25 and if it loses, his next three TSP Insiders selections will be sold at $2. Thereby there’s a benefit if he loses, but no need to remember promo codes or any wacky sort of process to complete the guarantee. If the previous Wolf example guarantee were to happen, whereby a play is $25, it loses and the next three are $2 each, you effectively would get four selections for $31 or $7.75 each. All of a sudden these types of guarantees brings prices down as a whole…and provided buyers with a bonus on a loss.

Fifth, while the soft-opening during June and July helped to work out a lot of kinks and resolve the traffic issue of everyone hitting the sites at once, there are likely still some kinks to work out once we see how normal operations move. August is being used as the first full month of operations so any remaining kinks are worked out by September and football! Thank you for your patience as things get tightened up!

Sixth, whenever a TSP Insiders’ selection is available, an alert will post to the TSP War Room channel. So, keep an eye on Telegram (https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/) for TSP Insiders related alerts. There won’t be a barrage of alerts coming today or tomorrow. June and July saw four paid selections over basically 8 weeks. You might now see 0-3 selections per week.

Lastly, all TSP Insiders selections will have a unit wager attached to them for the TSP Portfolio. Not purchasing a TSP Insiders selection will change your ROI, but because these wagers will be a tiny fraction of the Portfolio wagers (with the other 90%+ of portfolio wagers coming from the TSP Live subscription), it will not make a material change in your ROI if you pass them up.

Please send any questions or feedback.

Good luck and thank you as always for your support!

In the last two episodes of “Saratoga Handicapping” I dove int races in looking to find the value. However, what if you have a horse you absolutely know is going to win…but it is going to be a big chalk and likely not a value BUT YOU JUST HAVE TO HAVE ACTION TO IT!!!!

Alright, in these cases you would use a mix of handicapping and value searching. There is one such race that fits this mold for me at Saratoga. It is Race #11.

The TSP Power Ratings for Race 11: 3/4-1/5-2

BRISNET.com Racing Form for Race 11 (Click Here)

The #3, Thorpedo Anna is a name you might recall from the Kentucky Oaks and then the Acorn on Belmont Stakes day back in early June. Thorpedo Ann blew away the fields in both races and has been training very well leading up to this race. Those were very strong fields of horses too…today’s field is rather laughable by comparison. So, if the jockey doesn’t screw this up or fall off the horse I would be shocked if Thorpedo Anna does not win. I have been shocked before and Thorpedo Anna’s prices will be -EV as a win bet…so it is not worth betting straight. Don’t go and put $50,000 on Thorpedo Anna because “she can’t lose”. There is A LOT that can happen in a horse race. So, instead of a $50,000 win wager on a -EV horse, let’s try a $20 or less exotic using Thorpedo Anna.

The option becomes putting together either a Superfecta (first 4 horses) or a Trifecta (first three horses). By being able to wheel or key Thorpedo Anna on top, we can maybe get a price to come in and provide a good exotic.

In this race, just based on the TSP Power Ratings, the horses morning line odds are…

3 = 1/2
4 = 5/1
1 = 5/2
5 = 8/1
2 = 20/1

If we “assume” for wagering that Anna wins the race, then we put here in our top spot.

1st: #3

Now we can do either a trifecta or superfecta. I would not be interested in an exacta because with Anna there it isn’t going to pay much.

If the race goes 3-1-2-5-2 then the exotics are worthless. There’s no value or money if that is the order of finish. If Anna wins, then the #1 cannot come in 2nd place. So, that leaves me 2, 4 or 5 for my 2nd place spot in the wager. The 2 is an a rough horse and doesn’t have much going for it as you can get just by the notes. I don’t see it for the 2nd Place spot. So, I will use 4 & 5 for my 2nd Place spot in the wager.

2nd: 4,5

Now if I want to make this a trifecta or superfecta, I technically could have 1,2,4,5 for the third place spot. However, given there are only 5 horses in this race, and given the #2 is a rough horse on paper. Everyone who boxes the Superfecta or Trifecta is going to do it as 1,3,4,5…throwing out the #2. To have a good price we NEED the #2 in the trifecta and the #1 out of the trifecta is Thorpedo Anna is to win. So, based on this value assessment, I would want 2,4,5 for the third spot to create my trifecta.

I am not playing a superfecta because there are only five horses and every idiot will just box all five horses to guarantee a payout. Dumb…but it’s going to happen and thereby the Super won’t pay what it should. However, a proper trifecta that includes the #2 but removes the #1…should that hit…would likely carry a +EV payout. So, let’s do it based on what I have put together so far.

$1 Trifecta
1st: 3
2nd: 4,5
3rd: 2,4,5
Total Cost = $4.00

The above breakdown didn’t really use the racing form much. Instead my wager here is solely based on my thoughts on Thorpedo Anna and this being a weak field (based on the smaller stakes races the rest of these horses outside Anna are coming from) combined with the TSP Power Ratings as a filter while trying to find the optimal payout with Thorpedo at the top.

My goal with this “lesson” is to show how you can breakdown a race based on a horse you like and then make value assumptions as to the best way to take a wager that is going to be +EV versus betting you “lock” straight and heavy…and then having some bad luck take your lock out…with a large amount of bankroll. You may not win but when you do win it will cover all those losses in the process and turn a profit because you are keeping value on your side!

Let’s see how it goes today!

Good luck!

As I told someone yesterday…”Hopefully the combination of articles [I am doing this month] will help put together a picture but yes, handicapping horses is an art and something people do for the love of it. If you don’t have that passion for it…it’s not worth the time because it will never work!“

With the success of the Triple Crown wagers at The Sharp Plays there was a natural inclination by bettors of “I want to learn how to do this too.” As though I could give you 3-5 pointers, send you on your way and you would actually have a chance…more than rolling a dice…at picking value horses that perform. Teaching someone to handicap baseball is rather straight forward…look at a team’s recent performance in their record, their overall record on the season, check for key injuries, review the starting pitcher matchup and the stats for each pitcher and you can put together a rudimentary wager assessment. Horse racing is not so clean. Unlike MLB teams who play each other over and over during the course of the season, horses often come into a race from different tracks, racing against different horses, some are coming off a layoff, others were racing at higher class levels, and on and on the list goes. So, there is no standardization in a horse race like there would be when comparing teams in NBA or MLB for wager assessment.

The better handicapping comparison in horse racing would be imagine trying to handicap a baseball game, except the game involved a team from the South Korean KBO playing against a AAA baseball team in the US. There’s no standardization because these are different leagues, between teams who never play each other, and there is no basis for assessing past performance of a KBO team playing a AAA team. So, think of how deep you would have to dive into the stats to handicap the game. You would need to see average pitching speed and styles in KBO versus AAA to see if there is any edge. You would then need to assess how the hitters on each team handle the average pitching style and speed of the other league. You would need to assess who is traveling where for the game. It would be a far deeper handicap than handicapping an MLB game where things are standard because it is one MLB team versus another. That’s why the form has so much information packed into those little sections for each horse on the racing from. It is trying to give you a full view of the horse and various stats/data points so you can compare horses in your handicapping given each horse is coming in off a different previous race, experience, sometimes races have horses of different ages, then there’s those arrivals from different tracks and/or having raced in different classes of race. often. Everything I just laid out is only a sliver of all the moving parts to horse race handicapping. The way to put these horses on a level playing field to assess them in the upcoming race then becomes looking at how the trainers and jockeys do at the current track. When was the last time the horse raced? Is the horse moving up or down in class or distance? How did the horse run in its last race? All these little things play into how prepared a horse will be for the competition it faces today.

Andy Beyer is the creator of the first tool which really revolutionized horse racing. He created the Beyer Speed Rating which was found in the Daily Racing Form. The speed rating was an attempt to standardize the horses and show how fast they are in a single number. In the past this was done using distance and time only and computed in different ways by the handicapper him/herself. Beyer incorporated more factors into his speed rating. You also see speed ratings in the Brisnet.com racing forms that I am posting for these articles.

Speed ratings allow you to get an idea of a horse’s speed in their previous races based on a calculation Beyer devised. By creating a means of standardizing speed between horses we could now use these speed ratings for past races to compare horses in the current race. So, Horse #1 might have speed ratings of 85-86-71-83 in his last four races. Gives me an idea that this horse has an average speed around 81. Horses in the Kentucky Derby might run with speed ratings of 98-105 or more. Horses in an average race at a top tier track like Saratoga will average 80-90. In a stakes race at Saratoga it might be 95-100+. If you have a race and one horse (“Horse A”) has speed ratings of 85, 82, 81, 84, 83 in its last 5 races, and other horse (“Horse B”) has speed ratings of 82, 80, 79, 80, 78…you would clearly say the bet would be Horse A because his speed is on average better than Horse B. However, what if Horse B just had a solid workout in the past 10 days and Horse A is coming off a ten month layoff? Changes the picture A LOT. Horse A had good speed…but is now ten months older and this is its first race off a layoff. Horse B has been racing recently and shows good form due to a solid recent workout…I might look to Horse B.

Anyway, you can see how this speed rating helps us dial down a horse into how fast they run, but there are other factors to consider beyond just speed. Think of it like a car. If you went from point at to point B at 95 MPH, your speed rating might be “95”. If I ran the same distance, my speed rating is likely a “10” because I can’t run anywhere near 95 MPH. So, now you know nothing else but you know that if we were going to race and people knew nothing other than you have a speed rating of 95 and I have a speed rating of 10…who is everyone going to bet? Sure, you bet the 95 because it’s a race and a 95 speed rating is far faster than my 10. However, what if I said the race was going to be in a foot of mud and you are driving a Ferrari…now what do you bet? Sure, the car is faster…but will it have traction and be able to move in the mud. The mud will likely slow me down too…but I might be better suited for mud racing than you…and that’s another factor of assessing horses…some don’t perform on wet/muddy tracks and some perform exceptionally on such tracks. How do you know? All that mud and sloppy versus fast and good track performance is listed right on the racing form. Long story short…summarizing speed into a single figure is very helpful, but it’s not the only thing. Now you have to assess the type of race, its conditions, etc. to get a full assessment on the horses and the race.

Why isn’t speed everything if it is a race? Some horses are being put in a race for a tuneup…whereby the trainer just wants the horse to get some competition but isn’t racing to win. Some horses are coming off a layoff…so their speed ratings from 3,6,9 months ago don’t really mean anything today. So, the Beyer speed ratings were a huge help, but like the TSP Power Ratings…you need to further assess the horses beyond speed.

The TSP Power Ratings use speed, but they also use pace, pedigree of the horse, class rating of the horse, track performance, jockey performance, trainer performance, and more to give me a rating of the horse. Once again, like Beyer, these TSP Power Ratings have proven to be highly effective in handicapping the races, but when combined with fundamental handicapping (checking recent workouts, assessing potential jockey/trainer intent for the race, looking at the prices in the pools when the race is approaching) the TSP Power Ratings are second to none and a great filter.

The key is learning how to read a racing form. It would be far too long for me to type and explain the ins and outs. So, I will defer to you doing some Google searches if you have an interest. However, there is a relatively simply read and breakdown by Brisnet that could really get you up to speed. So…

Here is a link on BRISNET.com for how to read the “Ultimate Past Performance” sheets… https://www.brisnet.com/content/brisnet-online-horse-racing-data-handicapping/read-brisnet-com-ultimate-past-performances/

It is long and will take time, but print out today’s race form (link below) and then visit that link at Brisnet above and you can follow along and really get yourself up to speed. Here’s today’s form for the race I am covering…

Here’s the Racing Form for Race #5 (CLICK HERE)

Here is what the TSP Power Ratings say for this race: 3-7-5-8/6-4/1-2

Since the ratings were run, the following horses were scratched from the race: #4

Now let’s dive in…

From yesterday’s article you hopefully now know where to find the notes for each horse in the racing form. The notes provide a simple handicap of each horse based on key factors. Today I will dive a little deeper into the stats/information provided in the form for each horse.

I am going with Race #5 for this example. The race is 7 furlongs and would be considered a sprint. A “route” is a race that is 1 mile or longer. We can see by the top section on Page 1 of the racing form that the race is a $50,000 claimer with a purse of $80,000.

First, let’s filter out some horses based on the notes. I am going to filter out the following horses for the reasons cited…

#1) Poor speed figures, beaten by weaker horses in its last race.
#2) Coming off a 6 month layoff and no official workouts at Saratoga. How can you tell about the workouts? See the bottom of the section for Horse #2? There are two rows of numbers with the top row starting “11 Jly Bel tr.t 4f ft”. These are recent workouts and I would like to see “Sar” as the last workout. Instead I see “Bel” which is Belmont. So, I have a horse coming off a layoff without any prep workouts at Saratoga…I’ll pass.

With the above two removed, I am left with 3,5,6,7,8 because the 4 is scratched.

#3) The horse got 2nd in its last race and lost by 1.5 lengths. You can see this on the race breakdown where it says “28June24Lrl”. Again, deciphering this sort of stuff takes a little time, it’s all about whether this is interesting enough for you to learn. What that text tells me is on June 28th, 2024 at Laurel Park, the horse ran a 6 furlong race in 1:11^3. In that race it opened up in 2nd by a head, then held 2nd by a head, in the stretch it got into first by a head and then at the finish it had fallen back to 2nd by 1.5 lengths. Going all the way to the right side of the form I can see that the horse (based on the comments)” had a long battle inside, led the race, and finished “gme” or “gamely”. Gamely is defined by Equibase as “A horse that narrowly misses victory. He has either dueled for command from the outset and gave way grudgingly in the late stages, or set all the pace and just missed.”

You can visit https://www.equibase.com/products/cc-comments.cfm for a breakdown of what the various comments mean.

We can also see in the top right hand corner of #3’s section on the form that in 2024 it has had 5 starts, 0 first place finishes, 3 second place finishes and zero third place finishes (top right hand corner “2024 5 0- 3- 0” below the “Life” which is lifetime performance).

So, not a bad horse, fought had in its last race but tired late. Could be an issue today as it is moving up from 6 furlongs in the last race to 7 furlongs in this race. Definitely a horse to note thought as it has gotten 2nd in each of its last three races.

#5) The horse has not raced in 47 days, but it does have a good workout on July 13th…the problem is that workout is not at “Sar” but at “TP”. Similar to stock ticker symbols, you eventually learn all these different codes from memory and knowing the various major tracks in the US and Canada. I know “TP” as Turfway Park which is a synthetic track. You can google what that means. Here is a link of track name abbreviations that are commonly used: https://www.equineline.com/dirreffr.cfm?topic=rfnatrck%2Ehtm.

I would much prefer to see a workout at Saratoga to show the#5 horse is primed for this track despite the layoff. The horse got 4th in its last race back on June 1st, but that was a $100K stakes race…so it was against tough competition. The [S] before each race type on the form means the track was “synthetic” versus dirt. Horses do race differently on synthetic so that’s a concern here because again, we have nothing to go on for how this horse will handle the Saratoga dirt.

So, a good horse given the stakes race, but can it handle dirt? Last time it raced on dirt was September of 2023 when it got 5th. Every other race was on a synthetic track which can be noted by the “[S]” you see before each race type in the form.

#6) Skipping to the comments section shows this horse had an “Awkward Break” out of the gate in the last race and was “off slw” or off slowly out of the gate. So, clearly had some issues in its last race at the start that likely doomed it. So, we can throw that out. The race before the last one the horse was bumped in the break out of the gate, but then appeared to catch a nice run in a 7 furlong race which saw it win by 2.25 lengths. Potential here because we have a drop in class, hopefully it gets out of the gate better, and it had a competitive speed rating in its win at 7 furlongs.

After that race at Saratoga on June 8th, the horse then had a workout at Saratoga on July 3rd where it ran a decent 48^1 over 4 furlongs. Not bad. Learning what makes for a good workout time based on the different tracks simply takes experience of seeing the various numbers over and over again. In general, for a 4 furlong workout I would like to see the horse below 48^5…if it is under 48…then I am really interested. I do have to stress though…what makes a good time at one track might not be a good time at another track. These variations are usually less than a second, but that does mean something.

#7) Failed as a favorite in its last race and was out more than 2 months. However, the horse got a good recent workout…but not at Saratoga…this was at Belmont. The trainer is winning 29% of his races with horses in their first race off claiming them. The horse’s best speed is better than any of the other horses in this race. Clearly a good looking horse and likely why it is the favorite.

Going back to the #6 horse…it got that 48^1 on Saratoga’s track and there is no note about a “Sharp 4F workout” like we see for the notes of the #7…yet the #7 had a workout at Belmont over 4F in 48^4! That’s what I was talking about in the differences between tracks when it comes to workouts. The 48^4 on Belmont’s track is considered “sharp” but the 48^1 on Saratoga over the same distance and ride style (“B” for “breeze”…which means the horse was just running at a moderate speed and effort…the other style is “H” for “handled” which usually means the horse was put under the whip and run hard).

Here is a link to notes for deciphering Workouts: https://www.equibase.com/newfan/workouts.cfm.

#8) Horse was beaten by weaker horses in its last race, but it does have a tie rating for the highest speed in its last race. It’s best dirt speed is also better than the average winning speed rating for horses who have raced in the past in this type of race at this track and distance. The concern I have is if you go to the horse’s previous races, you can see it was trained by Norman Cash and is now trained by Eduardo Caramon…by the way, you might wonder how I am finding all this stuff. I am not really getting into the little things, but all of the stuff I am discussing can be found within the horse’s section of stats on the form. So, if you don’t know how I found out that Eduardo Caramon is the current trainer nor can you see how I knew the previous trainer or how I also know that Eduardo Caramon has had 3 horses start with 0 wins, 1 second place and 0 third place finished for his horses)…simply search the section on the form for the #8 horse until you see the word “Caramon” and then see if you can piece it together. Then try to find “Norman Cash” listed somewhere in that same section and the picture should begin to focus a little. Much of learning horse racing is getting familiar with the racing form. A lot that seems complicated can be easily broken down by spending a little time navigating the form and running some searches…or viewing the pages I linked above to the various horse racing websites and the link showing how Brisnet breaks down the Ultimate Past Performances for you.

Anyway, the #8 is not a bad horse, but some concerns given the trainer move. Is the horse really ready one race with a new trainer to blow by everyone else? Maybe…but its lower probability. The race could just be a test with little interest in winning for the trainer to gauge where this horse should be.

==========

So, with all the above said, I have filtered the horses I like down to 3,5,6,7,8

I have concerns with the #8 (new trainer) and #7 (current favorite but a lot of questions with the 2 month layoff and no workouts at Saratoga…it might win but it won’t be a value given the unknowns).

For the horse I like to win I have now filtered down to 3,5,6

I have seen that the TSP Power Ratings have: 3-7-5-8/6-4/1-2

The TSP Power Ratings also throw out the 1-2. When using the TSP Power Ratings I like to lean on using one of the Top 5 horses for my win spot. Once I have selected one or multiple horses for the win spot, then I am open to anyone for the 2nd or 3rd spot (3rd if I am betting a trifecta). So, I would have 3,5,6,7,8 as my top horses…the same five I got to after my handicapping….but I then removed 7 &8 for the reasons cited above.

I am left with 3,5,6 for my “Win” or 1st Place spot in an exotic. I am then open to any horses for 2nd Place…and this race seems wide open to me. I don’t really have 1-2 horses I like for 2nd Place, but instead really like anyone but the 1-2…and of course the 4 because it is scratched.

Taking all this into account, I come up with the following exacta…

$1 Exacta Wheel
1st: 3,5,6
2nd: 3,5,6,7,8
Total Cost: $12

Post Race Update: The order of finish was 3-7-1-6 and the 3-7 exacta paid back $14.40 for every $12 wagered.

We lost $12 on yesterday’s example…let’s see how we do today. Hopefully the favorite is out of the top spot and we should get a decent price!

Good luck!

I plan to do these race breakdowns a few times this month to provide insights into basic horse racing handicapping. Eventually developing them into an article for TheSharpPlays.com.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND…HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING IS COMPLEX. Just look at a racing form and you will see all sorts of numbers and information. Unless I were to write a book, which I do not have interest in doing, there is no way I can take someone who knows nothing about horse race handicapping and turn them into an expert. I learned horse handicapping over a period of YEARS…reading several books, taking the time to look at a racing form and learn what each part of it meant, etc. So, I will try to do a Cliff Notes version, but there will likely be A LOT of things you will need to educate yourself on in the process. If you have a desire to learn…you will need to put in effort. If you do not have a desire to learn…quit now and save yourself a ton of time.

I am going to Race #7 at Saratoga today.

For this race, the TSP Power Ratings show the following breakdown: 10/1/4-9-7/5-2-8-6-3

Since the breakdown was posted, the #2 horse was scratched.

Alright, so the next step is to open the racing form to Race #7. You can obtain a racing form from DRF.com (Daily Racing Form) at the cost of $4.25 for the “Classic” form. Here is a copy of the racing form at BRISNET.com (CLICK HERE).

Now here is where this could become a 100 page thesis. How do we decipher the form. I will touch on parts of what I am looking at, but if this is of interest to you then I would say to visit https://www.wikihow.com/Read-a-Racing-Form.

My first step is to scroll through the form and just take a look at the horses. The notes can be very helpful to limit the horses I am interested in.

So, in the notes, I see the following…

#1) I see he switches to a high percentage jockey, the trainer has a 37% win rate when a horse comes of a claim (a “Claimer” is a type of race where owners can agree to purchase a horse prior to the race being run), the horse finished 3rd in its last race and the jockey for today has been hot over the last 7 days…winning 7 races, coming in 2nd in 3 races and coming in 3rd in two races out of 21).

Just based on the notes and not diving into anything too technical yet, I like what I see with the #1.

#2) The horse won its last race (at BAQ which is Belmont at Aqueduct on July 7th…a 7 furlong race on the dirt which was a fast track and the horse was in a $20,000 claimer…which means owners could have claimed it for $20K). However, I see a negative note that the trainer is poor with a horse in his 3rd race of a layoff only winning 7% of his starts.

I will pass on this horse because I don’t like betting on horses off a win. Typically when a horse wins the owner/trainer will move the horse up in class or perceived class and so a back to back of wins is often a little tough. Sure it happens…but it is a lower probability situation.

The horse is also scratched so no need to bother with it.

#3) The horse won its last race and had a sharp 3 furlong workout on July 8th…I like seeing horses off a good workout. However, there are two negative notes…the horse is moving up in class off the win and the horse’s speed figures (the bold numbers under “SPD” on the form portion of the records) are poor com pared to the other horses in the race. I will toss this one out for now.

#4) The horse was a favorite in its last race and lost, but the trainer has logged 18% winners after his horse lost as a favorite.

Not a bad horse and one worth noting. So, now I am looking 1 and 4 at this point.

#5) Won its last race and had a strong workout BUT as we can see and what I discussed above about why I don’t like horses off a win…the horse is moving up in class from the last race. So, it will be facing tougher competition. Granted it blew away the last field it faced…the move up in class is still a concern. A possible horse for the end of a trifecta wager.

#6) Another horse that won its last race. However the trainer does win 28% of its races off a claim. Interesting horse…but I don’t think strong enough.

#7) This horse has a lot going on…it switches to a high percentage jockey, it drops in class, it moves from a route (long distance) to a sprint (short distance), it adds blinkers (which is helpful for horses that get distracted while racing) and it has the fastest speed of any horse in a race. The problem is it showed declining form in its last race. However, when I check the last race comments…the horse was bumped at the break, was 6 wide at the first turn and then 4-5 wide at the second turn. Being wide will kill the speed of the horse and fatigue it rapidly…so it is no wonder it had a shitty race. Interesting horse here.

So, now I am eyeing 1,4,6,7

#8) Uh oh…another winner of the last race. It has had a sharp workout and it had a very strong speed rating in its last race. However, the horse has not raced in 2 months so it could be a little rusty and this trainer has 0 wins in 30 starts when the horse has been away for 46-90 days…I’ll pass.

#9) The horse drops in class, is moving back to a sprint (from long distance racing) and is tied for the best dirt speed among today’s starters. The problem is the horse has not raced in more than 8 months…so it can be tough to come off that long of a layoff. It would be nicer if I could see that recent workouts were blistering and thereby the horse is returning to form…but I don’t see it. I’ll pass.

#10) We have the favorite here. The horse is tied for the highest last race speed rating and is coming off a win. I don’t like that the horse is coming off a win. When I look, the race was a $20,000 allowance just like this one. The horse won that race by 4 length (I can see this in the “FIN” column for the last race). It’s a decent margin to win by…but the owner/trainer is putting him in the same class of race here…not moving him up off the win? It could be because he is changing tracks and just wants the horse to get familiar with racing at Saratoga…but that also points to me that the trainer might not feel the horse is ready yet to be competitive. So, clearly a good horse, but at 2/1 I am concerned on the value I might get. It’s a horse I will note for my exotics.

At this point I have reviewed all the horses and I like 1,4,6,7,10.

The TSP Power Ratings ranks the horses as 10/1/4-9-7/5-2-8-6-3

I am concerned I won’t get much value by betting the 10 on my wager. It’ll be the favorite and go off as a negative value. So, it might win, and it is a good on-paper horse hence the “10/” in the TSP Power Ratings, but I will not win long-term betting horses if I bet the favorite on top of my wager.

So, I am going to do a $1 exacta wheel as follows…

1st Place: 1,4,7

2nd Place: 1,4,6,7,10

The wager will cost $12. In a normal situation I would probably only bet 1 to 2 horses for the 1st place spot, but I just want to use this as an example of narrowing down a field using the TSP Power Ratings and the racing form.

The order of finish was 5-1-3-10. The exacta lost $12.

So, in the first place spot I put the 1,4, and 7. One of these needs to win the race. In the second place spot I put 1,4,6,7,10…one of these needs to finish second. If one of the horses I have to win does win and one of the horses I have for second comes in second…I win my exacta! I removed the #6 from the top spot of my exacta because it is way down on the TSP Power Ratings. I like it, so I will use it only for 2nd place. I also removed the #10 from the top spot because the exacta won’t pay much if it wins and it’s better to bet for value.

I have gotten the above by just using the notes and a couple little dives into the past performance. Perhaps you can take the time to see what I am reading when I do dive into the past performance. I will break down past performance a little further in the next article. The goal of these is just a step by step approach to handicapping.

I want to get this out so I apologize for grammar as I did not proofread before publishing. Any issues, please let me know!

Good luck!

To avoid repeating myself every Sunday during the baseball season, I have created this brief article about the Sunday Night Baseball public fade angle.

My first gig in sports betting was making Sunday Night Baseball markets for a book offshore. In doing that, I became intimately aware of the ins and outs…and the uniqueness of the SNB action. One thing I kept noticing was that the public fade on Sunday Night Baseball was MONEY! It is one of the few public fade angles that has consistently won. A lot of people love to just blindly fade the public, but I have found that to be a 50/50 endeavor at best. You get wins, you get losses, but like the public you get juiced out.

HOWEVER…there is one spot in all sports that has consistently been a winner when fading the public. It is fading the side and total on Sunday Night Baseball for which the public is medium or heavy. I don’t bother with small public leans, but when the public is medium or heavy…fading the team or total that the side is on has shown to be a rousing success going back to the late 90’s when I first discovered it.

So, if you are wondering why I put some value into a public fade angle, it’s because when it comes to Sunday Night Baseball, that fade angle is consistently making money after almost 30 years!

Good luck!