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Assessment: Unlikely to see much for next week. The 50 day SMA is still holding the bulls back, despite the move today.
SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/dm0lf6cnfqC0hw1
Good luck in your trades!
The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.
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Assessment: Very ominous sign yesterday at bulls tried to pop the market up at the open but the 50 day SMA held back the rally and in the end it was a flat day. The candle is pretty telling. It’s not to say that in the days ahead the bulls don’t regain the 50 day SMA, but the weakness shown right now seems to foretell that a larger sell-off is in the making…eventually. Volume very strong this week BUT it could also be the last action of the year. We might be seeing action today because traders are moving their positions for 2025 and will be taking off the next two weeks which is pretty much normal for this time of the year. I am excited that a real trading environment of volatile up and down action will be coming in 2025!
SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/EpbwIncJfOuwUn9
Good luck in your trades!
The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.
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Assessment: The candle yesterday ended up being quite ominous. We are obviously oversold now on a short term basis, but it would signify that perhaps the next major move is down. The key pivot, to get back to those since it has been awhile as the market has slowly ground higher, would be the red line at $563. We will see if this is just some profit protection selling OR if they push below that level. I might look to front-run a larger sell-off, but ideally would want a little bounce, perhaps to test SPY $600 before a collapse lower.
SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/wyxzTPcQSNh0FEY
Good luck in your trades!
The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.
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Assessment: Given that this year in the market was just a slow grind upward, without almost any pain for the bulls…could we possible see a Krampus crash versus the usual Santa Claus rally? I know the sportsbooks want Krampus to show up for the next two weeks of the year, but what about in the market.
Today’s break of SPY $600 was a material break because usually such cracks are easily recovered. Not only did SPY $600 crack, but we also broke the 50 day SMA and is so far holding below it. The days ahead will tell the real story, but this is the first time in a long time that we have seen a candle like this one.
SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/KRX4tJcPTmsPBfy0
We are way overdue for a sell-off, but I thought it would wait until January…as did many traders…which is perhaps why it is happening now. Let’s see what happens!
Good luck in your trades!
The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.
Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/
Assessment: Shoutout to my haters requesting an update here!
When it comes to SPY…as I continue to say, I can’t chase a bullish trade above SPY $550. If I wasn’t invested already, I could never add a position here. The analytics and technicals are screaming overbought. The bearish divergences just keep popping. So, I can’t buy…I’ll just ride existing long positions. I will close existing long positions on a break below SPY $600. A material break and close below $600 would be a sign that a short term top is in.
Although the technicals are screaming overbought…I also am not willing to go short until I see the bears have something. This month I don’t expect much as traders vanish for the holidays. I would expect further movement higher on low volume all month.
Zooming out longer-term, I posted an article to the Trading Telegram recently about how previous markets have performed after a year like this one…it’s rarely been good. So, between the heavily overbought technicals and analytics, and the warning sign for what to expect next year…I see no reason to open new bullish positions. I ride what I have and sit back and watch for signs of the next sell-off. Then I will look to jump back into some good values after a material sell-off. Markets don’t just go up and up forever…they do have rough years and we are overdue for one…so that’s further concern.
The fact that China is restricting billions of dollars of chip materials to the US could be just the trigger to send things spiraling down…but it will take a bit for that news and those related issues to work their way through the system.
SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/OnYLCxc1caUBcZn
Bitcoin Chart: https://sblk.io/s/MYDNUBcycdUl1SrO
I cover Bitcoin for the crypto fans, but I am not too into trading it. It’s very volatile and except for messing around at low levels, it isn’t something I throw material funds into. With that said, the run has been impressive and the real election bet was to buy crypto in September and hope Trump won…which happened and the return has been excellent. At this point though it might be topping out. Once again we have bearish divergences on both MACD and RSI. I don’t like to enter any trades when bearish divergences are going on unless it is to short a position. I could see BTC selling off to $75,000, consolidating and then making another run up the charts.
Good luck in your trades!
The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.
Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/
Assessment: It’s been boring for the trading content, but there’s not much to do here. The market isn’t hard charging higher…just a slow grind which for short-term trading absolutely blows. You definitely don’t want to short this market because that isn’t work. So, you can’t buy at the high and you don’t want to short a non-moving market…leaves you with little to do but watch.
Combine all that with the outrageously low volume the past few months which is even lower now that we are in December. Then throw in the fact that the last two weeks of the month are dead. Maybe we get a Santa Claus rally, but we have almost had that the past few weeks. I rather sit back and wait either for a clear short entry (which is like finding a unicorn) OR let any selling play out and then buy on a dip…but we need a real dip first.
SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/Al7dUYcmSrspHE9
So, I am watching, but I don’t think there will be anything to do until next year.
Good luck in your trades!
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The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.
Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/
Assessment: The boring market environment continues. I would love to buy, but we are at an all-time high area, there’s nothing I will ever buy at an all-time high. I will wait for a material sell-off and get in. We really did not get any material sell-offs in 2024. Perhaps 2025 will be more interesting. When something is at an all-time high, the only strategy I am interested in is selling…because as is the case now…we are overbought and usually some pressure needs to be relieved…but we don’t really sell in the markets anymore. So, pretty boring!
SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/dm0lf7ibIqC0hqr
I don’t expect much more for Thanksgiving week as traders headed for the exists on Wednesday this past week and won’t return until after next weekend. We’ll see…who knows, maybe we get some action. If I don’t talk to you here before then…have a WONDERFUL and HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!
Good luck in your trades!
The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.
Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/
Assessment: We’ve had the post election pop and then not much. I am not really one to follow the trend. A trend will only run for so long. I like to wait for the inevitable reversal, whether or up down, if I miss the opening move. The reversal would mean a sell-off and we likely see a sell-off go down to SPY $570 to close the post election gap and do a little consolidating. When that closure comes is anyone’s guess. A break of $590 is a signal that the short term top might be in.
SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/dm0lf7i0sKilSqm
Good luck in your trades!
The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.
Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/
Assessment: Market launches higher on the Trump victory as tech and AI related stocks lead the way. The question will be whether this was just a short covering rally or we start running higher. I would like to see what the next days ahead show.
Volume in SPY was above average, but hardly the 5 million shares traded in a given day we saw regularly in May and prior. So, not sure what to make of the move.
SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/3RZwtAiOfoCKS4M
Good luck in your trades!