Category: Telegram Trading

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/

Assessment:  Here’s where things could FINALLY get interesting. The last two years saw strong growth in stocks, but nothing just goes up and up. Like public runs in sports…eventually there is a reckoning…but it is simply a matter of time.

Markets have been overbought and boring for essentially all of 2024. We did not get that swing trading environment that is fun to trade and provides both bulls and bears with multiple trading opportunities throughout the year. Instead it was basically just a slow grind higher…great for the 401K…not so much for the trade.

The key line right now is SPY $580. We cracked it, then recovered it and now threatening to crack it. I do expect a break to lead to selling, but sharp selling likely won’t come unless we break $560…and given how long the bulls have been in total control, I don’t see either level cracking easy…but once they do we should see a healthy down move.

Once the down move is over, then it will present some great opportunities for buying at decent prices. I have a laundry list of positions I am interested in…now I just have to get my targets. Let’s see what they do with $580 first.

SPY: https://sblk.io/s/alxliNs6tNi6sOR

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/

Assessment: Getting some volatility and some volume for a change, but we are stuck in a sideways pattern. The market long-term and short-term remains overbought. The market could use a good sell-off to clean up overbought pressures and free up some money for the next run up. However, selling into this market has been a bad idea for most of 2024. The question will be after the strong run the past two years, do we finally see some collapsing?

The bears need a break of $580 which should lead to an acceleration in selling. The red line pivot at $563 then becomes the next major support, we break that and we likely eventually get to $500 before a bounce. If bulls are strong, despite a break of $580, they would hold the $563 and push to new highs.

SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/KRXRsAsquxIYi6e

The question is who blinks first. I am watching for a break of $580 and then I will maybe look to grab some $560 PUTS a couple months out and take a shot at a further down move.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/

Assessment: Unlikely to see much for next week. The 50 day SMA is still holding the bulls back, despite the move today.

SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/dm0lf6cnfqC0hw1

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/

Assessment:  Very ominous sign yesterday at bulls tried to pop the market up at the open but the 50 day SMA held back the rally and in the end it was a flat day. The candle is pretty telling. It’s not to say that in the days ahead the bulls don’t regain the 50 day SMA, but the weakness shown right now seems to foretell that a larger sell-off is in the making…eventually. Volume very strong this week BUT it could also be the last action of the year. We might be seeing action today because traders are moving their positions for 2025 and will be taking off the next two weeks which is pretty much normal for this time of the year. I am excited that a real trading environment of volatile up and down action will be coming in 2025!

SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/EpbwIncJfOuwUn9

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/

Assessment: The candle yesterday ended up being quite ominous. We are obviously oversold now on a short term basis, but it would signify that perhaps the next major move is down. The key pivot, to get back to those since it has been awhile as the market has slowly ground higher, would be the red line at $563. We will see if this is just some profit protection selling OR if they push below that level. I might look to front-run a larger sell-off, but ideally would want a little bounce, perhaps to test SPY $600 before a collapse lower.

SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/wyxzTPcQSNh0FEY

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/

Assessment: Given that this year in the market was just a slow grind upward, without almost any pain for the bulls…could we possible see a Krampus crash versus the usual Santa Claus rally? I know the sportsbooks want Krampus to show up for the next two weeks of the year, but what about in the market.

Today’s break of SPY $600 was a material break because usually such cracks are easily recovered. Not only did SPY $600 crack, but we also broke the 50 day SMA and is so far holding below it. The days ahead will tell the real story, but this is the first time in a long time that we have seen a candle like this one.

SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/KRX4tJcPTmsPBfy0

We are way overdue for a sell-off, but I thought it would wait until January…as did many traders…which is perhaps why it is happening now. Let’s see what happens!

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/

Assessment: Shoutout to my haters requesting an update here!

When it comes to SPY…as I continue to say, I can’t chase a bullish trade above SPY $550. If I wasn’t invested already, I could never add a position here. The analytics and technicals are screaming overbought. The bearish divergences just keep popping. So, I can’t buy…I’ll just ride existing long positions. I will close existing long positions on a break below SPY $600. A material break and close below $600 would be a sign that a short term top is in.

Although the technicals are screaming overbought…I also am not willing to go short until I see the bears have something. This month I don’t expect much as traders vanish for the holidays. I would expect further movement higher on low volume all month.

Zooming out longer-term, I posted an article to the Trading Telegram recently about how previous markets have performed after a year like this one…it’s rarely been good. So, between the heavily overbought technicals and analytics, and the warning sign for what to expect next year…I see no reason to open new bullish positions. I ride what I have and sit back and watch for signs of the next sell-off. Then I will look to jump back into some good values after a material sell-off. Markets don’t just go up and up forever…they do have rough years and we are overdue for one…so that’s further concern.

The fact that China is restricting billions of dollars of chip materials to the US could be just the trigger to send things spiraling down…but it will take a bit for that news and those related issues to work their way through the system.

SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/OnYLCxc1caUBcZn

Bitcoin Chart: https://sblk.io/s/MYDNUBcycdUl1SrO

I cover Bitcoin for the crypto fans, but I am not too into trading it. It’s very volatile and except for messing around at low levels, it isn’t something I throw material funds into. With that said, the run has been impressive and the real election bet was to buy crypto in September and hope Trump won…which happened and the return has been excellent. At this point though it might be topping out. Once again we have bearish divergences on both MACD and RSI. I don’t like to enter any trades when bearish divergences are going on unless it is to short a position. I could see BTC selling off to $75,000, consolidating and then making another run up the charts.

Good luck in your trades!

The below assessment is provided under the Financial Content Disclaimer at https://TSP.Live/financial-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading.

Financial Market Analytics Dashboard (FREE): https://tsp.live/fma-v2/

Assessment:  It’s been boring for the trading content, but there’s not much to do here. The market isn’t hard charging higher…just a slow grind which for short-term trading absolutely blows. You definitely don’t want to short this market because that isn’t work. So, you can’t buy at the high and you don’t want to short a non-moving market…leaves you with little to do but watch.

Combine all that with the outrageously low volume the past few months which is even lower now that we are in December. Then throw in the fact that the last two weeks of the month are dead. Maybe we get a Santa Claus rally, but we have almost had that the past few weeks. I rather sit back and wait either for a clear short entry (which is like finding a unicorn) OR let any selling play out and then buy on a dip…but we need a real dip first.

SPY Chart: https://sblk.io/s/Al7dUYcmSrspHE9

So, I am watching, but I don’t think there will be anything to do until next year.

Good luck in your trades!